Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[smashingDoug]

I wasn't disagreeing with you, that's why it doesn't change anything you said.

The only thing I will disagree on is Max Brass or Dr. Coyle being likely for the ARMS pick. ARMS may not have a "protagonist", but Spring Man or Ribbon Girl are absolutely the co-cover mascots. Spring Man especially was a focal point of not only the comic, but also the promo materials when they revealed the game originally.
--
Actually, I'll add a bit more.

I've never said it was strictly "protagonist first". I said, "protagonist OR mascot is usually first", which is true for every single series in Smash. It is also true of every unique entry within series in Smash. Every single Fire Emblem character is the protagonist of their respective game. Pikachu is the de facto mascot of Pokemon. Lucario was largely "the Pokemon" of Gen 4. Those are things we can verify.

As far as Hero, that seems to actually fit my point. Mascot (Slime) OR Protagonist (Hero). That fits it perfectly.

There has never been a game that has started their Smash playable debut with a character that wasn't a "protagonist" or "mascot", but that in itself makes sense...Smash is a mascot crossover, and typically mascots are incredibly popular and can be easily tied to their game of origin.

Now, that's not to say ARMS wouldn't be the first to buck that trend, but I'm not convinced that it will. If anything, to me, it's Spring Man or Min-Min.

I don't know where the argument of "mascot OR protagonist" was misconstrued to be only "protagonist" or only "mascot" but I am quite confident I was not the one to say that. I've always been of the mind that it's "mascot OR protagonist" because that's 100% of what all Smash inclusions have been for the first character in a franchise with new playable representation, as well as every non-veteran, non-Piranha Plant DLC pick between Smash Wii U and Smash Ultimate.

Ji say twintell because of how she had human arms and arms arms. Easy to code items usage

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

This is partly due to the fact that there's no real basis for a black pallet swap for Squirtle and Ivysaur...

Dang it! Now I want a black pallet swap for Squirtle and Ivysaur.

I'd say it's more that The Pokemon Company as a whole wouldn't allow a black palette swap for them, not because it doesn't exist alone.

...And then I read you said partially. Whoops.

 

[osby]

Ji say twintell because of how she had human arms and arms arms. Easy to code items usage

You have firing a gun with a leaf, I don't think the item usage has an impact on character decisions.

 

[Trevenant]

This is partly due to the fact that there's no real basis for a black pallet swap for Squirtle and Ivysaur...

Dang it! Now I want a black pallet swap for Squirtle and Ivysaur.

I guess maybe Squirtle with the black glasses. There is bound to be something for Ivy

 

[Cosmic77]

At the very least, we had an idea of what we were getting since March. It would've been even more tedious to be left in the dark since January.

Anyway, an ARMS rep was something I had wanted in the base roster, so I've genuinely been looking forward to this reveal. The promise of a Spirit or AT getting in as a character makes things even more interesting.

 

[Franauts]

I'm not enthusiastic about the Arms character at all, what excites me is that there will be a new stage, new music (Arms' music is really great, I love it). And of course see Sakurai again, giving us history, fun facts and jokes about the update (plus I'm excited to see another deluxe mii costume)

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I'd say it's more that The Pokemon Company as a whole wouldn't allow a black palette swap for them, not because it doesn't exist alone.

...And then I read you said partially. Whoops.

The Pokémon character's pallet swaps are all over the place really, and I'm not sure The Pokémon Company is the sole reason for it, and if they are I have many questions. Like, if you're requiring that Squirtle and Ivysaur's colors not be a huge departure from their base pallets, then why do you allow Charizard to be every color of the rainbow? If you don't want Pokémon to have their shiny forms, then why do Pikachu, Jigglypuff, Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Incineroar have them? And why does Mewtwo have his old one? And why does Greninja kind of get one, but the tongue and patterns are the wrong color? And why is Lucario mostly just different shades of blue? Pokkén Tournament has a red skin, so why not Super Smash Bros.?

It could very well be that there were pretty heavy restrictions imposed by The Pokémon Company early on, and the resulting pallet swaps were carried over for tradition's sake even if the restrictions have laxed quite a bit since then.

I guess maybe Squirtle with the black glasses. There is bound to be something for Ivy

Even if there isn't any you cannot deny that a red and black Ivysaur would be just the coolest. And then glasses or no, you could make Squirtle a deep navy with a red velvet shell. I can't even picture it completely and it still sounds sooo freaking cool.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I'm not enthusiastic about the Arms character at all, what excites me is that there will be a new stage, new music (Arms' music is really great, I love it). And of course see Sakurai again, giving us history, fun facts and jokes about the update (plus I'm excited to see another deluxe mii costume)

I think he may have to do something other than history or it'll end up as

"ARMS came out in 2017" *end credits*

 

[SKX31]

gotta disagree. joker is a character primedfor all the former shiek players out there. after shiek got gutted in ultimate and joker comes out its a pretty natural transition to move on to joker. while they arent the same character (obviously) the combo-based play style and the ability to play at multiple ranges is similiar. you can also see this with terry. in smash 4 many poeple were interested in ryu but ryu is difficult for many members of a community not used to a grounded playstyle that needs inputs to fully function. Terry lowers the entry bar to playing a fgc character and he comes with much of ryu's power and you dont need inputs to kill consistently with terry plus almost no one is gonna argue the super special moves arent fun to do.

when characters get in its not a matter of whether people wanted them to be good or not its whether they became fun or not. K rool has a fan base and playerbase becuas eo fhis armor and the fact he is rather versitle. he has the ususal heavy weaknesses but k rool is overall fun to play.

the obivous out is banjo who got put in smash as a zoner and i dont think many people long term like playing with him. you can't just look at tournament results you need to watch what characters people play causally and what characters top players use in thier time just having fun.

Sheik got buffed pretty decently in the last couple of patches. Besides, both Joker, ZSS and Greninja have been extensively used and fill similar niches as combo-oriented, technical characters. The DLC characters' bases might have cooled off to various extents - but they haven't been displaced, nor have the older base game characters been displaced. They still see playtime both casually and competitively. Online / casual play is a different environment, yes, but they're also affected by what people percieve to be good or effective. Zoners, heavies and Sonic benefit massively online of course, but Jokers, Palus and Wolfs are also common sights in online.

Sure, characters getting in or not are often independent of how good they become. But I stay by my point that the competitive scene can affect how much a character is talked about, especially after release. But just because Joker's talked about and played more than say B-K doesn't mean that B-K's ignored post-release.

And while I might bemoan the buffer system and online, Ultimate does one massive thing right: balancing. Using MVD's tier list (a Snake pro):

Spoiler: Spoiler: Big image

This is just one person, of course. But how the tiers are worded is the crucial point. MVD's tier list has 69 (heh) out of 77 characters listed as Mid Tier (defined as "has some value") and above. 51 of them are "borderline high tier" or above. Again, no character is really dropped - Nairo has a nasty Ganondorf, for example. And sure, Little Mac and Kirby might be used online for the most part - but they also see competitive play every now and again. Dr. Mario and Corrin are rare in both casual and competitive (for different reasons), but those two also see playtime and their own Discord servers.

And to return to my original point, Ben Gold (the K. Rool pro) played against Samsora (one of the best Peach players out there) in a tournament (2GG Kongo Saga, a supermajor) set. Ben pulls this insanity off in the first game:

Against one of the best. The VOD got 180K views on Youtube, and it helps influence casual Rool players as a result. "Ben Gold is an inspiration to K. Rools everywhere." as one commenter put it. Sure, Samsora came back to win the set (and he played really well too), but point still stands.

And: Nair's Ridley vs. Dark Wizzy, one of the best Marios out there (Mexican Championship, Game five, Winners Semis aka "Quaterfinals"). Nair's just taken Wizzy's first life, then proceeds to destroy him:

Nair takes the game and the set, but Dark Wizzy comes back and gets his revenge in the Grand Finals - Nair gets 2nd with Ridley. But just because this VOD "only" got 3K doesn't mean it won't influence some casual Ridley players. Even 3K views help keep the Ridley hype alive. Only on a smaller scale since this was a smaller tournament than the Ben Gold example. The commentators in both cases went nuts.

This post is also meant as reassurance: Whichever characters Sakurai and co. develops, I'm fairly certain they'll wind up being effective characters on the whole. Because Ultimate is that balanced. Also: bottom / low / mid tier characters can still wreck face. Whether casual or competitive.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I think he may have to do something other than history or it'll end up as

"ARMS came out in 2017" *end credits*

If ARMS 2 is indeed a thing, then he'll probably explain that as well. Even if not he'll probably explain how ARMS works and/or go in depth about the chosen character(s) origins (or rather, the lore behind them).

Though if there is no ARMS 2, then the explanation would probably be "Spring Man is a boxer who likes pizza" *end credits*

 

[Cutie Gwen]

At the very least, we had an idea of what we were getting since March. It would've been even more tedious to be left in the dark since January.

Anyway, an ARMS rep was something I had wanted in the base roster, so I've genuinely been looking forward to this reveal. The promise of a Spirit or AT getting in as a character makes things even more interesting.

Call me crazy but I'd have prefered being left i the dark because I'd have assumed it was because they hadn't started development yet, they told us "Hey we're ready to release this character soon meaning they're already presentable but we're choosing not to show you anything! Who knows who it could be?" If they did this and it turned out to be Spring Man, I'd be disappointed as they spent 3 months acting like Spring Man wouldn't have been the default pick for ARMS anyway. Just going "Hey it's Spring Man!" would make me go "Spring Man? Huh" instead of "Are you kidding me?". Also, about the possibility of other promotions? It's equally possibile that no other upgrades happen, meaning when the pass is done, people will go "It's unfair! Why did Spring Man get to be promoted but nobody WORTHY got to be!"

 

[Gentlepanda]

I think he may have to do something other than history or it'll end up as

"ARMS came out in 2017" *end credits*

sakurai delves into the extensive ARMS lore, whisky in hand, while brandishing a copy of the unpublished ARMS graphic novel and ranting about the twist on page 359 and its implications for master mummy's character arc

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Call me crazy but I'd have prefered being left i the dark because I'd have assumed it was because they hadn't started development yet, they told us "Hey we're ready to release this character soon meaning they're already presentable but we're choosing not to show you anything! Who knows who it could be?" If they did this and it turned out to be Spring Man, I'd be disappointed as they spent 3 months acting like Spring Man wouldn't have been the default pick for ARMS anyway. Just going "Hey it's Spring Man!" would make me go "Spring Man? Huh" instead of "Are you kidding me?". Also, about the possibility of other promotions? It's equally possibile that no other upgrades happen, meaning when the pass is done, people will go "It's unfair! Why did Spring Man get to be promoted but nobody WORTHY got to be!"

Counterpoint: Expectations build with silence. If ARMS hadn't been revealed it's reception would be so much more negative than it is now since people would be expecting a bombshell pick. Ideally they'd just tell us who it is, but I think in terms of keeping people happy, this is much better than nothing.

As for your last point, this would happen with literally any Assist Trophy upgrade regardless of who it is, or how many there are (unless 5 or 6 were upgrades but that's not realistic and would cause other problems so...).

 

[zeldasmash]

Well uh, on Sunday it's gonna be the presentation https://twitter.com/NintendoAmerica/status/607910067447472129?s=19

Sorry if I'm late in posting.

 

[osby]

Well uh, on Sunday it's gonna be the presentation https://twitter.com/NintendoAmerica/status/607910067447472129?s=19

Sorry if I'm late in posting.

This is from 2015.

 

[zeldasmash]

And I'm...dumb...sorry. XD

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

And I'm...dumb...sorry. XD

Aw don't beat yourself up over it.


Just tell everyone a Slowpoke hacked your account instead!

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

And I'm...dumb...sorry. XD

Nah, I wouldn't say you're dumb. It's easy to get caught up in that and miss something when it's not in a larger font.

I think we're all ready for this particular period of speculation to be over with, so it's not out of the question that anybody might be like, "PLEASE! END IT!"

Don't be too hard on yourself.

 

[Koopaul]

At this point the thing I'm looking forward to the most is ending the "ARMS characters can be alts" thing. I'll be glad when that's over.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

At this point the thing I'm looking forward to the most is ending the "ARMS characters can be alts" thing. I'll be glad when that's over.

I really doubt there will be a Hero situation and we are most likely getting Spring Man without other characters as alt costumes.

 

[BernkastelWitch]

While I do find the idea of a Hero situation silly for ARMs, especially since most of the characters are very different, I find people who unironically think we may get an "ARMs 2 Protagonist" even more absurd because it feels like a cynical answer and a bit of a cheap copout as a way to "Preserve" fan rules and would be a sleep in the face to ARMs fans.

I don't get why people think that is the answer there.

 

[Digital Hazard]

Personally I have no problem if Spring Man is turned into a fighter.

What would be my actual problem is how the fans of certain Assist Trophies would suddenly get a false hope that their character has the chance, only to find out later they may not, and then go on to complain like manchildren.

It may be a minority who would do that, but it's still an annoying minority to hear of.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

While I do find the idea of a Hero situation silly for ARMs, especially since most of the characters are very different, I find people who unironically think we may get an "ARMs 2 Protagonist" even more absurd because it feels like a cynical answer and a bit of a cheap copout as a way to "Preserve" fan rules and would be a sleep in the face to ARMs fans.

I don't get why people think that is the answer there.

The only way an ARMS 2 character is getting on the roster is if the ARMS cast is getting new costumes in the game.

This guessing game isn't great.
Leaving us hanging for months only to reveal an ARMS character is worse.
Giving us a guessing game, and then adding someone not on the list tops the list of "how to piss everyone off".

 

[BernkastelWitch]

Personally I have no problem if Spring Man is turned into a fighter.

What would be my actual problem is how the fans of certain Assist Trophies would suddenly get a false hope that their character has the chance, only to find out later they may not, and then go on to complain like manchildren.

It may be a minority who would do that, but it's still an annoying minority to hear of.

Like most other Smash choices, there will be whining no matter what. Assist Trophy gets to be a playable character? People will whine their favorite AT isn't playable. No ATs upgraded this pass? People will whine how some characters are permanently regulated into Assist Trophies. Same with Spirits. And god forbid what happens if a character gets in who isn't part of the small handful that get brought up literally every day(I.E someone who isn't Waluigi, Geno, Doom Guy, Master Chief, Sora, Crash, etc etc)

 

[ZelDan]

Personally I have no problem if Spring Man is turned into a fighter.

What would be my actual problem is how the fans of certain Assist Trophies would suddenly get a false hope that their character has the chance, only to find out later they may not, and then go on to complain like manchildren.

It may be a minority who would do that, but it's still an annoying minority to hear of.

Eh, if Spring man doesn't end up being playable there will be a bunch of annoying "HAHA SEE WE TOLD YOU ATS WILL NEVER BE PLAYABLE GET REKT WALUIGI/ISAAC FANS!"

The Smash fanbase in general has idiots, the idiots don't just corner one specific subset of the entire Smash fanbase.

 

[BernkastelWitch]

Eh, if Spring man doesn't end up being playable there will be a bunch of annoying "HAHA SEE WE TOLD YOU ATS WILL NEVER BE PLAYABLE GET REKT WALUIGI/ISAAC FANS!"

The Smash fanbase in general has idiots, the idiots don't just corner one specific subset of the entire Smash fanbase.

You can't win with a portion of the fanbase who are either spiteful and willing to mock people for their favorites not getting in or you wanting a character that they're ignorant about and assume everyone except the one person they mock don't know them.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Personally I have no problem if Spring Man is turned into a fighter.

What would be my actual problem is how the fans of certain Assist Trophies would suddenly get a false hope that their character has the chance, only to find out later they may not, and then go on to complain like manchildren.

It may be a minority who would do that, but it's still an annoying minority to hear of.

Fans of big-name third-parties already got a false hope that we'll be getting several Ryus and Clouds when we only got one.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Eh, if Spring man doesn't end up being playable there will be a bunch of annoying "HAHA SEE WE TOLD YOU ATS WILL NEVER BE PLAYABLE GET REKT WALUIGI/ISAAC FANS!"

The Smash fanbase in general has idiots, the idiots don't just corner one specific subset of the entire Smash fanbase.

There was never any good reason to think ATs couldn’t be DLC for Smash Ultimate anyways. The only reason people put so much stake into Spring Man is because he would invalidate that assumption automatically. Even then, in the hypothetical scenario where he wasn’t playable, characters like Waluigi could still easily be DLC.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm feeling two Smash reveals this summer.

It happened in 2018 with Everyone Is Here + Ridley and in 2019 with Hero and Banjo.

While one could argue that certain events could make that change I feel confident there could be enough FP7 material for at least a trailer.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Fans of big-name third-parties already got a false hope that we'll be getting several Ryus and Clouds when we only got one.

Actually, we have two clouds! It's a shame one of them is banned in competitive play though...

 

[TheCJBrine]

Personally I have no problem if Spring Man is turned into a fighter.

What would be my actual problem is how the fans of certain Assist Trophies would suddenly get a false hope that their character has the chance, only to find out later they may not, and then go on to complain like manchildren.

It may be a minority who would do that, but it's still an annoying minority to hear of.

I’d just be happy knowing the “rule” is dead at least and speculation for these characters would feel freer, so no one would constantly get ragged on about potentially going overboard with hype or get mocked for believing a character has a chance in general.

 

[I.D.]

Jon Gamexplain is back at it

 

[CandySamaurai92]

Jon Gamexplain is back at it

Oh, yes he is.

 

[Cosmic77]

I can understand why none of the AT characters would seem exciting, but I don't understand why there are a few people who are so opposed to Spring Man breaking the AT rule.

I mean, it's not like it confirms Waluigi or anything. It doesn't even guarantee us a second AT character. All it would do is allow ATs to be treated more seriously. Don't see anything wrong with that, unless you want those characters to "stay dead" so you won't have to worry about seeing more frequent discussions on them.

 

[Perkilator]

Eh, if Spring man doesn't end up being playable there will be a bunch of annoying "HAHA SEE WE TOLD YOU ATS WILL NEVER BE PLAYABLE GET REKT WALUIGI/ISAAC FANS!"

I mean...

I'd admittedly be tempted to burst out like that too.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

On the topic of it being being Spring-Man I will just say the same thing I said on /r/smashbros about the same topic, but go into a bit more detail.

If anything, Spring Man has more meaning and opens way more doors then any other ARMS character does if he gets in as that puts AT upgrades on the table. Now I am typically someone who argues against AT upgrades, but that is simply due to me not seeing that happen and I fine with being proven wrong when it comes to that.

 

[SKX31]

I'm feeling two Smash reveals this summer.

It happened in 2018 with Everyone Is Here + Ridley and in 2019 with Hero and Banjo.

While one could argue that certain events could make that change I feel confident there could be enough FP7 material for at least a trailer.

I'm so going with the massive wildcard: "FP7's gonna be shown off during EVO Online!" (July)

Bonus points if the character has some wild tech like the Moon-Crouch:

I can understand why none of the AT characters would seem exciting, but I don't understand why there are a few people who are so opposed to Spring Man breaking the AT rule.

I mean, it's not like it confirms Waluigi or anything. It doesn't even guarantee us a second AT character. All it would do is allow ATs to be treated more seriously. Don't see anything wrong with that, unless you want those characters to "stay dead" so you won't have to worry about seeing more frequent discussions on them.

I've always got the impression (and this is coming from someone who have never played ARMS) that those people see Spring Man as incredibly "vanilla" (in a negative sense). Aka. he doesn't stand out at all compared to other AT or even Spirit choices. There are a lot of ATs who have prexisting popularity (Shadow, Krystal, Alucard, Shovel Knight etc.) after all.

Not saying my own opinion, just what I suspect is behind the opposition to Spring Man in particular.

 

[TheCJBrine]

I can understand why none of the AT characters would seem exciting, but I don't understand why there are a few people who are so opposed to Spring Man breaking the AT rule.

I mean, it's not like it confirms Waluigi or anything. It doesn't even guarantee us a second AT character. All it would do is allow ATs to be treated more seriously. Don't see anything wrong with that, unless you want those characters to "stay dead" so you won't have to worry about seeing more frequent discussions on them.

It sucks how some people put you down for thinking certain characters have even the slightest chance to get in, then get mad when something happens that gives people who want these characters some more hope as if discussion for them wasn’t nearly dead anyways thanks to the rude people and as if those rude people couldn’t possibly ever be in the same situation.

Some will even call a character’s fanbase “toxic” based on either a minority, the fans having backlash against people being toxic to them, or absolutely nothing.

I do not understand why this stuff is even a thing in videogame character discussion to begin with. You have your standard and alright arguments here and there, but then there’s “HA stupid Waluigi/Isaac/Geno/Skull Kid etc. etc. fans you all suck! They’re dead and never gonna happen, just shut up and be quiet! We couldn’t possibly ever be in the same situation as y’all, and we’re clearly not the people being toxic scumbags here! No-sir-ee!”

The rude stuff isn’t limited to AT and spirit characters, either. Also a few or so third-party characters.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Eh, if Spring man doesn't end up being playable there will be a bunch of annoying "HAHA SEE WE TOLD YOU ATS WILL NEVER BE PLAYABLE GET REKT WALUIGI/ISAAC FANS!"

The Smash fanbase in general has idiots, the idiots don't just corner one specific subset of the entire Smash fanbase.

I honestly expect a similar thing to happen even if the character isn't Spring Man, just aimed at people who thought there was a chance the mascot wouldn't be the choice for once.

Spring Man is honestly as good a pick as any ARMS character, it's just that the PR opened up the possibility for something different and people have noticed. If the non-mascot/main character is never on the table, why act as if they are?

 

[StarBot]

Nah, I wouldn't say you're dumb. It's easy to get caught up in that and miss something when it's not in a larger font.

I think we're all ready for this particular period of speculation to be over with, so it's not out of the question that anybody might be like, "PLEASE! END IT!"

Don't be too hard on yourself.

Yeah, I'm sorry for the people who thought that the "Sakurai should give more specific hints, like what series is the fighter is from next time, instead of waiting in the blue XD" ideal was good one

Because clearly, in the past 2000+ pages, it's pretty clear we can not handle hints or early hands up

I do think that speculation on here is annoying and extremely outlandish sometimes

But I rather have something different or stupid to debate and speculate about, rather then something specific and having to discuss something to home in for months on end

It was extremely borning and painful reading and deabting over specific characters form ONE mediocre fighting game

If Sakurai or someone in the Smash team is somehow reading this 1. Please add Arle

And 2. Please, never do a "this upcoming character is form _____" ever again

Don't do this for a specific company either, I don't want Capcom fans agureing for months on end, about "how Megaman deserves another rep, despite Sonic dosn't!" Or how "Resident Evil didn't deserve to get spirited" again and again, over and over again

and I never want to hear the word "Dante" ever again

Just please, for the next character, either announce it along with the arms character, or just keep us in the dark until you are ready