Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Among Waddle Dees]

"People only hate first party DLC because we're used to third parties when the reality is that Nintendo characters can be just as, if not more exciting than the third party DLC!"

The first party DLC:

I don't seem to recall these characters being requested on a strong want level within their fanbases. Even in the case of Byleth, where the idea could've been foresighted (but wasn't) I was under the impression more people would've preferred the leaders over the protagonist.

We simply haven't gotten a first-party DLC newcomer that has achieved high excitement. Will that ever be attainable? Maybe not completely, but remember that a portion of the excitement is coming from people who do nothing with Smash but hype up what new guest franchises should be added. From a smaller scale, a first party DLC newcomer could gain an overall positive traction, which the ARMS character could very well do. But until stronger evidence that this can happen shows up, the comparison doesn't exist.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Well, I'll just say the same thing people said when others were complaining about Byleth.

You shouldn't have prepurchased the pass if there were certain characters you knew you weren't committed to buying.

Thing is, Byleth was at the tail end, which doesn't compare to 2 months of total silence before a tease and another 3 months of silence. At that point, one could have already looked at the other 4 and concluded the pass would be worth it, now though? We still don't have a character at all to even judge an impulse buy like Joker did for many

 

[Mushroomguy12]

"People only hate first party DLC because we're used to third parties when the reality is that Nintendo characters can be just as, if not more exciting than the third party DLC!"

The first party DLC:

To be fair, I don't think 3 characters are representative of all the possibilities of an entire group of 50+ characters. If anything, it just makes people want an exciting first party even more.

(Ignore Byleth, this banner was made before they were revealed).

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I don't seem to recall these characters being requested on a strong want level within their fanbases. Even in the case of Byleth, where the idea could've been foresighted (but wasn't) I was under the impression more people would've preferred the leaders over the protagonist.

We simply haven't gotten a first-party DLC newcomer that has achieved high excitement. Will that ever be attainable? Maybe not completely, but remember that a portion of the excitement is coming from people who do nothing with Smash but hype up what new guest franchises should be added. From a smaller scale, a first party DLC newcomer could gain an overall positive traction, which the ARMS character could very well do. But until stronger evidence that this can happen shows up, the comparison doesn't exist.

Which is my point. People think the Nintendo DLC isn't exciting because Nintendo gave us a track record. The third party DLC though? We get iconic characters from popular franchises, big or small, deemed likely or not. When Nintendo's only offering Fire Emblem characters 6 and 8 and a generic mook, it's really not hard to see why people would find potential first parties lackluster

 

[Guynamednelson]

gnore Byleth, this banner was made before they were revealed

Soon you will need to ignore Spring Man as well.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Oh yes, forgot actually that Purples / Rocks don't latch. And further on, turns out that the flowering is also just aesthetic. I'll fully admit to that mistake myself - I'm not the only one who made that mistake. MewtwoKing and Salem both thought that Brawl Olimar's Pikmin become "super-God" when they flower in their Brawl tierlist.* Probably because in the Pikmin games that has an effect, and people kind of assumed it did despite no evidence.

Whelp. Here's Olimar player Myran's beginner guide - no changing damage / knockback stuff depending on budding. Likewise, his Brawl moveset does not mention budding having an effect at all.

And yeah, reworking his animations is going to be difficult, not denying that.

*(EDIT: M2K and Salem both played Brawl for years and still missed that. Everyone makes mistakes.)

Interesting. Even I assumed it would since that's how it works in Pikmin.

My suggestion would be to put his whole body into the gestures. So instead of his Forward Smash hiving him do a quick point, have him reel back with his arm outstretched, and then stomp his foot back down and point!

Here's the thing though, had Snake been DLC, I wouldn't have counted him either, not to mention when people talk about potential characters these days, nobody's asking for any veterans because we got them all, meaning it doesn't feel like anyone's missing.

Well, you should. If we were looking at 3rd party DLC as a whole, he would be a 3rd party DLC character in that scenario. EDIT: In fact, most people probably would, as it would help the narrative of 1st party = boring. Also, if not all the veterans in the game, people would be asking for them...well, most of them. People actively didn't want at least half of the veterans coming back until they all came back anyway.

I mean, they're not the same person.

They were in Melee. But since the Zelda in this game isn't OoT Zelda, they're also different people now.

As far as I know, each recurring character is a reincarnation of the same character, which means they are the same person depending on how you perceive reincarnation (or depending on how it works in the lore so correct me if they've specified how it works).

 

[Dinoman96]

To be fair, I don't think 3 characters are representative of all the possibilities of an entire group of 50+ characters. If anything, it just makes people want an exciting first party even more.

(Ignore Byleth, this banner was made before they were revealed).

It kinda showed Nintendo's priorities, though.

It made it seem like the only characters of their's they were willing to make DLC out of were promotional characters from new games released after the base game. So no Dixie, Rex, Waluigi, or whatever. Not counting Piranha Plant (who is essentially just left overs from the base game), the ARMS rep is the first Nintendo DLC character to break this mold.

(unless it's from ARMS 2 or something dumb like that)

 

[Cosmic77]

Which is my point. People think the Nintendo DLC isn't exciting because Nintendo gave us a track record. The third party DLC though? We get iconic characters from popular franchises, big or small, deemed likely or not. When Nintendo's only offering Fire Emblem characters 6 and 8 and a generic mook, it's really not hard to see why people would find potential first parties lackluster

You're sort of presenting this as if all DLC first-parties would be equal to the three you brought up (even though PP is more of a base roster addition who became a DLC character out of circumstance).

Regardless of whether we're talking about first or third-parties, it all depends on the character. Byleth is not on the same level as Banjo, just like Katalina is not on the same level as Waluigi. A third-party label means nothing if a majority of fans aren't content with the choice, and an exciting first-party character doesn't mean all first-parties will be equally thrilling.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

As far as I know, each recurring character is a reincarnation of the same character, which means they are the same person depending on how you perceive reincarnation (or depending on how it works in the lore so correct me if they've specified how it works).

It doesn't help that different Zelda characters reincarnate in different ways. Each Zelda is a descendent of another Zelda, but also a reincarnation of the goddess. So Zelda is both the same character but a different person. Her personality does change, though. Links are purely different people who inherit the spirit of the hero. There's a bit more of an argument for pure reincarnation here depending on exactly how the inheritance works. Toon Link specifically doesn't even inherit that spirit, but instead goes through a trial to receive it around the age of 11-12 (I forget which). So at the very least, Toon Link is a completely separate character, even if Young Link is not.

So basically, it's complicated.

 

[Perkilator]

On that note, what WOULD be the general consensus if Sakura Shinguji from Sakura Wars was in Vol. 2? Here's the OP to her support thread, so you can get familiar with her.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

You're sort of presenting this as if all DLC first-parties would be equal to the three you brought up (even though PP is more of a base roster addition who became a DLC character out of circumstance).

Regardless of whether we're talking about first or third-parties, it all depends on the character. Byleth is not on the same level as Banjo, just like Katalina is not on the same level as Waluigi. A third-party label means nothing if a majority of fans aren't content with the choice, and an exciting first-party character doesn't mean all first-parties will be equally thrilling.

Tell that to Nintendo then, there's plenty of Nintendo characters I'd love but I don't expect Nintendo to give me an addition I'd like due to their track record with DLC, and you're not gonna convince me or anyone else, why? Because that's Nintendo's responsibility. I even loved Byleth's inclusion, their stage and their music, but again, only Nintendo can actually convince me a first party can be exciting, which as we've established, Nintendo can't do

 

[Cosmic77]

Tell that to Nintendo then, there's plenty of Nintendo characters I'd love but I don't expect Nintendo to give me an addition I'd like due to their track record with DLC, and you're not gonna convince me or anyone else, why? Because that's Nintendo's responsibility. I even loved Byleth's inclusion, their stage and their music, but again, only Nintendo can actually convince me a first party can be exciting, which as we've established, Nintendo can't do

Nintendo's track record is only two characters though. Corrin and Piranha Plant are a result of the development team and Sakurai respectively.

You're entitled to your opinion, but I feel like it's premature to give up on all potential DLC first-parties just because of Byleth and this ARMS character.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Nintendo's track record is only two characters though. Corrin and Piranha Plant are a result of the development team and Sakurai respectively.

You're entitled to your opinion, but I feel like it's premature to give up on all potential DLC first-parties just because of Byleth and this ARMS character.

Let me put it like this, you say Nintendo raised our expectations by giving us too many third parties, right? What if it's the opposite? Every Nintendo newcomer we've gotten as DLC has lowered our expectations to what kind of Nintendo newcomers we'll get.

Also this is acting as if Sakurai's able to do literally whatever he wants without Nintendo's approval, he only got Plant and Corrin because Nintendo said yes

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I don't think a lack of confidence has anything to do with the weird reveal. If anything, revealing which series F6 is coming from three months ahead of release shows more confidence than what they did with the previous character. Byleth's reveal and release was only twelve days apart.

Besides, I'm not really sure how a character model changes anything aside from us knowing who the character was. With the exception of Mewtwo, every DLC character so far had a proper reveal trailer before we got to see their model, their stage, or anything else relevant to their inclusion. My guess is that the animated trailer wasn't ready yet, so rather than keep us in the dark until June, they threw us a bone and semi-revealed the character.

Uh... every single Smash 4 DLC specifically got revealed with their model and stage if applicable, none of them had "proper reveal trailers" unless we're counting those like 10 seconds of Ryu's reveal trailer as something special...

 

[Perkilator]

Uh... every single Smash 4 DLC specifically got revealed with their model and stage if applicable, none of them had "proper reveal trailers" unless we're counting those like 10 seconds of Ryu's reveal trailer as something special...

Or Corrin's, for that matter.

 

[Digital Hazard]

I mean, the problem when speaking about "representation" is that Nintendo is a corporate entity and doesn't cares about it the same way the fandom does because they earn a profit anyway.

"Oh, 3 FE characters from Awakening? Whatever, many of you will use them anyway and they still give us cash in spinoff stuff"

"Oh, Zelda only has 6 characters? You guys still keep buying Smash and their games anyway, so no need to go further, but let's update Link to further remind you you can and have bought BotW and are excited for the sequel"

"Oh, Gen III and V don't have any representatives? Meh, their games are old, so let's better put one of the current gen people are currently buying"

"Oh, now you're saying that Mario, our main mascot who brings us pretty much millions per year is overrepresented? That's cute"

Even to Sakurai this doesn't matters too much, to an extent maybe since the guy had to be convinced Corrin was worth doing, but the guy in Smash 4 brought us lots of Kid Icarus content because it was the game he worked the last on, rather than a game that sells like hotcakes, and this comes from a Palutena main who was his most wanted newcomer in 4 and craves for an Uprising sequel.

"What's that? You want a fully evolved Grass-type starter for some trinity? I mean yeah it'd be nice, but I'd like to do a wrestler, so have this bara tiger"

And really, if we're gonna say something like "FE is overrepresented because sales"; then EarthBound can be called overrepresented, the only time one of the games sold a million was as a relaunch in the Wii U virtual console, which isn't really much to brag on; realistically it should have as much as Final Fantasy currently does in that case.

In the end, "representation" is really mostly used by this fanbase as a masquerade for people that really means "I want the series I like to get more attention, but this other one is getting more, so I'll act as if it stole attention from the one I like"; and that doesn't even works since we end buying the full product anyway. They learn nothing because we don't allow them to actually learn.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I mean, the problem when speaking about "representation" is that Nintendo is a corporate entity and doesn't cares about it the same way the fandom does because they earn a profit anyway.

"Oh, 3 FE characters from Awakening? Whatever, many of you will use them anyway and they still give us cash in spinoff stuff"

"Oh, Zelda only has 6 characters? You guys still keep buying Smash and their games anyway, so no need to go further, but let's update Link to further remind you you can and have bought BotW and are excited for the sequel"

"Oh, Gen III and V don't have any representatives? Meh, their games are old, so let's better put one of the current gen people are currently buying"

"Oh, now you're saying that Mario, our main mascot who brings us pretty much millions per year is overrepresented? That's cute"

Even to Sakurai this doesn't matters too much, to an extent maybe since the guy had to be convinced Corrin was worth doing, but the guy in Smash 4 brought us lots of Kid Icarus content because it was the game he worked the last on, rather than a game that sells like hotcakes, and this comes from a Palutena main who was his most wanted newcomer in 4 and craves for an Uprising sequel.

"What's that? You want a fully evolved Grass-type starter for some trinity? I mean yeah it'd be nice, but I'd like to do a wrestler, so have this bara tiger"

And really, if we're gonna say something like "FE is overrepresented because sales"; then EarthBound can be called overrepresented, the only time one of the games sold a million was as a relaunch in the Wii U virtual console, which isn't really much to brag on; realistically it should have as much as Final Fantasy currently does in that case.

In the end, "representation" is really mostly used by this fanbase as a masquerade for people that really means "I want the series I like to get more attention, but this other one is getting more, so I'll act as if it stole attention from the one I like"; and that doesn't even works since we end buying the full product anyway. They learn nothing because we don't allow them to actually learn.

So what's your point then? That Nintendo doesn't care about Smash in the same way fans do? Because if so, no **** Sherlock.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

While I'm definitely the kind of person who favors in-universe DLC as opposed to guests, I will naturally make exceptions for those characters I feel strongly about. It happens with every fighting game. Heck, people are going nuts about Terminator vs. Robocop in MK11, and I'm sitting here thinking 'meh, where's Kenshi?' Meanwhile I'm kinda hyped about Fujin, who nobody really knows outside of MK fans.

That said, I got into Soul Calibur specifically because of Link's guest appearance, and Ezio in SCV was the one thing that prevented that game from being utter trash.

For me, it really does depend on whether I like the guest or not to make me get ridiculously hype or be completely meh about it. Same here - I can think of two third parties off the top of my head that will make me go nuts, but most others I'd spring for a Nintendo first party over 95% of the names people throw around since I have little to no connection to them. It's a personal thing.

Point I'm trying to make though is that it is personal. All of the reaction videos on YouTube show that Cloud is a way bigger crowd pleaser than Olimar or Wii Fit Trainer. I know for the most part, I'd take a first party over most third parties, but I also know that's not a universal thing. No offense intended to those who support (and I'll pick one of the ones I really want for this example), but the general crowd will not go crazy about someone like Midna as much as it would for someone like Dante - but that would be glorious in my mind and be an instant buy.

Many of the Ninty first-parties left, even if we do consider Spirits and Assists, are not big name characters. It goes back to the whole Geno discussion that crops up every ten pages or so - yeah the Smash fanbase supports them, but what about the casual fans? Will adding [insert Ninty character here] bring new people in (unlikely, since pretty well all of their supporters already got Smash)? Will that bring something new to the table? Will that help solidify Nintendo business relations or promote a game?

The three Ninty DLC newcomers we've gotten across two games were kinda panned - one was a mook who was obviously planned for base, and the other two are the latest character from a series which is oversaturated in character representation. Understandable that those haven't been major hype. New we have ARMS, which they just started to repromote again (almosts as if there will be a new announcement coming up there...), and again people are more concerned about which fanrule is gonna be broken (Will assists become playable or will we get a non-front-cover character first? Or even will we get a bunch of alts despite them all having different abilities?). Don't get me wrong, I'd be really excited about Springo (less so for anyone else), but I realize that the third parties bring the hype, even if I don't think they're that interesting.
Then again, announce Dovahkiin and watch me flip tf out.

 

[Digital Hazard]

So what's your point then? That Nintendo doesn't care about Smash in the same way fans do? Because if so, no **** Sherlock.

Point is people complain, complain and complain for what amounts to nothing. Like 2 or 3 people will go like "last pass was trash so I won't buy this one!", and yet that is no loss because so many have already bought the game and the two fighter passes anyway.

So really, why would Nintendo change their minds on "representation" when we give them profits anyway?

 

[Garteam]

I'm going to be honest, "Nintendo is holding off on showing the ARMS character because they're not hype/going to get a strong reaction" is a "Terry only got in because Sakurai and his creators are lovers"-tier take. It reeks of "I don't like this character, therefore I need to explain how they got in over a character I do like".

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I'm going to be honest, "Nintendo is holding off on showing the ARMS character because they're not hype/going to get a strong reaction" is a "Terry only got in because Sakurai and his creators are lovers"-tier take. It reeks of "I don't like this character, therefore I need to explain how they got in over a character I do like".

God I wish I could forget I ever saw that take. words can't explain why it just revolts me on so many levels

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I'm going to be honest, "Nintendo is holding off on showing the ARMS character because they're not hype/going to get a strong reaction" is a "Terry only got in because Sakurai and his creators are lovers"-tier take. It reeks of "I don't like this character, therefore I need to explain how they got in over a character I do like".

I mean, one is blatantly disrespectful to Sakurai, his wife and SNK. The other is you misinterpretting me saying "They're not willing to show me what I'm buying, so why should I care" as Nintendo being a small company that desperately needs these impulse purchases or else they face bankrupcy. I've been vocal that my issue is the teasing silence, not that it's from ARMS

 

[Dark Bagel]

Tell that to Nintendo then, there's plenty of Nintendo characters I'd love but I don't expect Nintendo to give me an addition I'd like due to their track record with DLC, and you're not gonna convince me or anyone else, why? Because that's Nintendo's responsibility. I even loved Byleth's inclusion, their stage and their music, but again, only Nintendo can actually convince me a first party can be exciting, which as we've established, Nintendo can't do

So wait, Gwen...

What you're saying here, is that oftentimes....

Third-parties can do what Nintendon't?

 

[SpectreJordan]

"People only hate first party DLC because we're used to third parties when the reality is that Nintendo characters can be just as, if not more exciting than the third party DLC!"

The first party DLC:

You pretty much nailed it. It seems to me that they save the hype Nintendo characters for the base roster of a game.

There’s no reason that K Rool & Ridley weren’t DLC in Smash 4, you have to assume that they were just being saved for Ultimate. I imagine it’ll be the same case for Dixie, Waluigi, Paper Mario, etc...

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Taken from ResetEra:

If [the reveal] was this week we'd probably have had the weekly event announced yesterday.

When Byleth was announced, Nintendo dropped the Spirit event a day earlier than normal before announcing the Smash presentation.

is this true?

 

[SKX31]

Many of the Ninty first-parties left, even if we do consider Spirits and Assists, are not big name characters. It goes back to the whole Geno discussion that crops up every ten pages or so - yeah the Smash fanbase supports them, but what about the casual fans? Will adding [insert Ninty character here] bring new people in (unlikely, since pretty well all of their supporters already got Smash)? Will that bring something new to the table? Will that help solidify Nintendo business relations or promote a game?.

It's difficult to tell, especially when casual fans don't tend to make their voices heard and can have very wide-spread knowledge / interests. It's not impossible for a casual fan to know about FE but be more of a ? regarding Metroid or Zelda for example (I forget who wrote about this in this thread, but that can be a common thing).

Also, this is tangentally related to your point, but it's one of the main reasons I've been tracking Nintendo's efforts in other regions, China in particular. Ninty execs might see "Oh, we have around 3 million active Switch users in China?"* and think "We could certainly tap into that and expand our numbers there! It's a huge country!" A Smash character would not be the only method for them to do so, but perhaps one of the flashiest.

It's a bit more difficult - but not impossible, far from - to do with more established regions. Nintendo's own data shows a rough division of (ignoring decimals here) 13 Million Switches in Japan, 22 Million in the Americas** and 14 Million in Europe. The other 5 Million are "Other regions". For the combined 55 million. But more established regions generally have more loyal fanbases, and picking characters that entice the more loyal fanbases do tend to be a major positive too because it reassures the established fanbases (E.g. the double reveal of Hero / B-K).

That's only part of the equation when it comes to the character selection, but Furukawa and co.'s input is important. Even if not all-mighty.

*(This was before New Horizons, which became one of the most popular games there before being delisted. The delisting didn't stop people from buying it though. Also, the numbers include parallel imports (imported JP / NA / EU Switches) and those sold officially by Tencent.)

**(I'd wildly guess 15-18 Million of which in NA - Smash does have a Latin fanbase too, so it's not impossible to imagine around 5-7 million or so in LatAm.)

 

[Goombaic]

Taken from ResetEra:


is this true?

Yep.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

The 13th was a Monday.

 

[Schnee117]

Imagine comparing a non-existent strawman about "Nintendo holding off on the arms reveal because it isn't hype" to someone being blatantly homophobic.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Taken from ResetEra:


is this true?

Next week it is then hopefully. To forth!

 

[Cutie Gwen]

It's difficult to tell, especially when casual fans don't tend to make their voices heard and can have very wide-spread knowledge / interests. It's not impossible for a casual fan to know about FE but be more of a ? regarding Metroid or Zelda for example

I don't really get this, Metroid's amazing and iconic for sure, but people really overstate it's success, Fire Emblem's been pushing out copies pretty damn well, whereas the last time I remember a Metroid game breaking past 1 million was Prime 1. Correct me on that if I'm wrong though

 

[Schnee117]

I don't really get this, Metroid's amazing and iconic for sure, but people really overstate it's success, Fire Emblem's been pushing out copies pretty damn well, whereas the last time I remember a Metroid game breaking past 1 million was Prime 1. Correct me on that if I'm wrong though

All the Prime games did over 1 million aside from Fed Force

 

[SKX31]

I don't really get this, Metroid's amazing and iconic for sure, but people really overstate it's success, Fire Emblem's been pushing out copies pretty damn well, whereas the last time I remember a Metroid game breaking past 1 million was Prime 1. Correct me on that if I'm wrong though

I meant that in the sense you described it: that Metroid's generally more talked about here than FE tends to be, at least by the video game press etc. It can be the other way around too - a casual fan can know and love Metroid / Zelda, but be more of a ? regarding FE and / or Zelda / Metroid.

 

[Deleted member]

Speaking of spirits, today’s the day they announce a Spirit Event or online tournament.

What are we getting this week, I wonder?

 

[Digital Hazard]

I don't really get this, Metroid's amazing and iconic for sure, but people really overstate it's success, Fire Emblem's been pushing out copies pretty damn well, whereas the last time I remember a Metroid game breaking past 1 million was Prime 1. Correct me on that if I'm wrong though

While I partially agree with this, most Metroid games have sold around a million. The exceptions are Prime, selling over 2 million, and Federation Force and Samus Returns, which sold less than a million.

 

[Dinoman96]

and Federation Force and Samus Returns, which sold less than a million.

You're also forgetting Zero Mission, Other M, and Metroid Prime Pinball. Which also all sold less than a million.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Speaking of spirits, today’s the day they announce a Spirit Event or online tournament.

What are we getting this week, I wonder?

Watch as somehow, nothing, instead they announce a presentation tomorrow

haha I wish

 

[Digital Hazard]

Speaking of spirits, today’s the day they announce a Spirit Event or online tournament.

What are we getting this week, I wonder?

Has there ever been an empty week?

 

[The_Naraotor]

One can wonder how Nintendo work out its plan for DLC release ? Because this whole Byleth / ARMS back to back situation in regard to the first four characters we have in the fighter pass is making people nuts.

As for first party rep I am still rooting for a F-Zero character NINTENDO MUST (no wrong choice of word here) release another F-Zero I'm sure this licence can do well, they need to ask Sega to do again the Job. Also I feel like GX was IMO the beginning of a new F-Zero era where customisation would be the staple.

Damn so much potential and they made this serie sleep smh.

About odd ball third party except for Sora is there any other video game character that Disney can offer ? Mickey sounds about right but this is not a video game character. Disney is such a oddball compagny for rep lol

 

[Cutie Gwen]

About odd ball third party except for Sora is there any other video game character that Disney can offer ? Mickey sounds about right but this is not a video game character. Disney is such a oddball compagny for rep lol

Why, this is the most obvious question I've ever seen

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Disney Dante baybeeeeeee

 

[MarioRaccoon]

Yesterday I dreamed that next week we are getting a video showcasing ARMS CP, next Mii Costumes wave and they revealed 3 AT that will come via a free update: Saki Amamiya, MK Ray III and Pyramid Head. They also say that next CPs will come with more new AT and Mii Costumes.

One can dream right ?