Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Michael the Spikester]

Reminder its that time of the week again! Spirit Board/Tourney!

See who might be potentially deconfirmed!

 

[Garteam]

IMO, the last Smash Direct was pretty bad: an underwhelming final character in Incineroar after the bombshell reveals at E3 and the August Smash Direct, the bluntness of getting rid of trophies and weak explanation of why spirits were a good replacement beyond "there's a lot of them", highlighting how they really hadn't learned much from Smash for Wii U/3DS' online, the deconfirmation of multiple requested characters as Assist Trophies, and taking time to try and explain basic options of all things (many of which were in the previous game) made it seem both over bloated and somewhat tone deaf.

 

[kirbsmash]

underwhelming final character in Incineroar

You act like that's new. Smash been doin' this.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Reminder its that time of the week again! Spirit Board/Tourney!

See who might be potentially deconfirmed!

Dear Sakurai, end my suffering by making Layton a spirit, please

 

[Rie Sonomura]

IMO, the last Smash Direct was pretty bad: an underwhelming final character in Incineroar after the bombshell reveals at E3 and the August Smash Direct, the bluntness of getting rid of trophies and weak explanation of why spirits were a good replacement beyond "there's a lot of them", highlighting how they really hadn't learned much from Smash for Wii U/3DS' online, the deconfirmation of multiple requested characters as Assist Trophies, and taking time to try and explain basic options of all things (many of which were in the previous game) made it seem both over bloated and somewhat tone deaf.

Don’t forget Rex’s costume reveal as a Pass 1 bonus... though tbf I expect a Xenoblade character to become DLC anyway, doesn’t HAVE to be Rex

 

[Garteam]

You act like that's new. Smash been doin' this.

That's fair, I think it just hit a little harder this time due to the condensed pre-release schedule. Brawl and Smash for Wii U/3DS had time to start slowing down from the big names to the more lowkey stuff. Ultimate didn't really have that luxury, so a lot of people (myself included, honestly) weren't able to read the writing on the wall.

 

[kirbsmash]

That's fair, I think it just hit a little harder this time due to the condensed pre-release schedule. Brawl and Smash for Wii U/3DS had time to start slowing down from the big names to the more lowkey stuff. Ultimate didn't really have that luxury, so a lot of people (myself included, honestly) weren't able to read the writing on the wall.

Also, blame that dumb fake leak for overhyping something that'd likely not be true. Still, what's done is done. Heel kitty isn't that bad, to me at all. Also,do any smash reveal have to be an big name?

 

[Gribbo]

Also, blame that dumb fake leak for overhyping something that'd likely not be true. Still, what's done is done. Heel kitty isn't that bad, to me at all. Also,do any smash reveal have to be an big name?

Even then you can't blame any of the non-character stuff on fake leaks. All those fun game modes being removed and spending most of the direct talking about .pngs and brightness settings would've been disappointing no matter what.

 

[kirbsmash]

Even then you can't blame any of the non-character stuff on fake leaks. All those fun game modes being removed and spending most of the direct talking about .pngs and brightness settings would've been disappointing no matter what.

That's fair, and it's true that it comes as shorthanded there. but I'm comin' off on the characters here, and how not every one of them have to be a big hit. I like being throw off by the characters than expecting an big job to come.

 

[Garteam]

Also, blame that dumb fake leak for overhyping something that'd likely not be true. Still, what's done is done. Heel kitty isn't that bad, to me at all. Also,do any smash reveal have to be an big name?

Even a Grinch leakless world, much of what made that direct somewhat underwhelming (in my opinion), still remains though. Spirits are still undersold and fail to cushion the blow of removing spirits, the filler stuff like explaining basic options in depth still remains, and (although Grinch probably escalated some of these emotions) the assist reveals still happen at a poor time.

I'm not an Incineroar fan admittedly, but I've largely made peace with him being in the game and I do think the character has a lot of merits and fans who deserve to be acknowledged. However, I still don't really think it was super fair to the character to make him the follow-up to Ridley, Simon, and K. Rool. Poor guy had some lofty acts to follow and, thusly, lofty expectations to meet. Incineroar was always going to be an uphill battle for fan response given his somewhat divisive nature, I just think putting that battle towards the end was a bad idea.

 

[SNEKeater]

Yeah receive you is great, honsetly very few songs need remixes from the Yakuza series since they're great for fighting anyway.

I used this for the background template https://imgur.com/a/rjMtdsN and this for the spirits https://imgur.com/a/ixR0YJ2

Thank you for the templates!

Amazing selection all-around! I'm fairly convinced once we get Guilty Gear music in Smash, Smash will be deemed as having the game with the best soundtrack ever. period.
I seriously hope Daisuke Ishiwatari pulls off an SNK and lets Sakurai use around 40 songs or something. There are just too many tracks that I'd want to see in Smash. I mean the guy is the creator of the franchise and the composer of every song, and he looks like a nice guy overall! Here's hoping! And if we do get over 13 songs, I'll just add some tracks I'd want to see on top of the ones you suggested. Since your list is basically already perfect.

Spoiler: Some Favorite GG Tracks of Mine

Get Down to Business
Good Manners and Customs
Home Sweet Grave
Keep Yourself Alive 3
Izuna's Theme
Diva
Original Bet
Django Django
Jack-a-Dandy
-Rokumon-
Storyteller
The Ship
Freesia
Ride the Fire!

Also as we discussed in the Sol thread, there's gonna be a lot of censoring with those spirits lol... ;-;


Honestly, the only tracks I want to get remixed are the Karaoke ones. Tracks like Baka Mitai and Kamurocho Lullaby could get remixed so they'll be more fit for Fighting. Or heck, maybe create a "Karaoke Medley" to fit them all into one, that'd be pretty cool.
Also thanks for the template, I'll be using that as well for some fighters I'd like to see!

Pulling of an SNK wouldn't be easy but honestly, one of the few options I think could replicate that would be an ArcSys character. Not likely of course, but who knows. Besides all of that Daisuke owns all the music IIRC, so for that part things should be easier.
Great selection of songs btw. I haven't played Overture but listened some songs while playing Revelator 2 and they're really cool.

Also, while Ride the Fire would be great as a separate track, I always thought it could activate in game if someone's playing Sol and he activates Dragon Install, assuming that he would have the option to transform freely, just like in GG Xrd. That would be a nice touch.

A karaoke medley for Yakuza is really a good idea.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

You act like that's new. Smash been doin' this.

I feel like this is a meme at this point, and I think it needs to die.

• I'm pretty sure Super Smash Bros. and Super Smash Bros. Melee didn't have hype cycles like this.
• Olimar may not have been the biggest name, but Pikmin was in its heyday at the time, and I'm pretty sure it had gathered a cult following. I don't think it was the disappointing inclusion everyone makes it out to be now.
• Shulk had a large following as well before Super Smash Bros., and while there were a lot of people who didn't know him, just as many people were able to explain who he was, and were quite happy with him. It might have helped that as far as this site goes, Shulk was already a known quantity (ESRB Leak), but even if you have to go back to the last not leaked character, Robin was a pretty strong inclusion as well (Though I suppose that is hindsight, in the moment, everyone was mourning Chrom, but that's kinda to be expected when a popular character gets disconfirmed like that, and that's not to say people were upset about Robin or Lucina specifically).
• Bayonetta was certainly decisive, but I never got the feeling that she was inherently disappointing. Though it didn't help that she came hot off the heels of the character that started the general hatred for Fire Emblem and very few people grew to like even after getting to know him.
• Near as I can tell, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate's final reveals are the only ones to fall super hard on their faces.

 

[Door Key Pig]

I feel like this is a meme at this point, and I think it needs to die.

• I'm pretty sure Super Smash Bros. and Super Smash Bros. Melee didn't have hype cycles like this.
• Olimar may not have been the biggest name, but Pikmin was in its heyday at the time, and I'm pretty sure it had gathered a cult following. I don't think it was the disappointing inclusion everyone makes it out to be now.
• Shulk had a large following as well before Super Smash Bros., and while there were a lot of people who didn't know him, just as many people were able to explain who he was, and were quite happy with him. It might have helped that as far as this site goes, Shulk was already a known quantity (ESRB Leak), but even if you have to go back to the last not leaked character, Robin was a pretty strong inclusion as well (Though I suppose that is hindsight, in the moment, everyone was mourning Chrom, but that's kinda to be expected when a popular character gets disconfirmed like that, and that's not to say people were upset about Robin or Lucina specifically).
• Bayonetta was certainly decisive, but I never got the feeling that she was inherently disappointing. Though it didn't help that she came hot off the heels of the character that started the general hatred for Fire Emblem and very few people grew to like even after getting to know him.
• Near as I can tell, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate's final reveals are the only ones to fall super hard on their faces.

So the cult following characters are okay because they have their fans backing them, but another character from THE BIGGEST MEDIA FRANCHISE EVER isn't? One that could have had a ton of more casual fans supporting it?

 

[SNEKeater]

I don't know, Bayonetta maybe isn't Master Chief in regards of popularity but she was everything but disappointing. If anything, one of the most hype announcements in Smash for me.

 

[ARandomFruit]

I'm kinda banking on the whole "last character has to be disappointing" thing considering that's probably what 90% of my most wanteds are to other people anyways.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Honestly I'd day the Bayonetta reveal was a time where they got the timing just right. With the Corrin reveal being so underwelming to a lot of people, it made showing off a distinct third party character from a fairly mature franchise like Bayo all the more exciting. Not too dissimilar to the Hero/Banjo reveal where many who were indifferent about the former were greatly satiated by the latter.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

So the cult following characters are okay because they have their fans backing them, but another character from THE BIGGEST MEDIA FRANCHISE EVER isn't? One that could have had a ton of more casual fans supporting it?

I feel like the reason for it is that Smash fans that aren't necessarily into Pokémon find a new Pokémon to be obligatory at this point. That combined with multiple factors causing most to actively not want Incineroar specifically (The Grinch Hoax, Vergeben's leak, and people wanting Decidueye more) led to people finding it disappointing. Were he switched with Isabelle or something, I don't think people would have been as upset about it, and Isabelle would have been the butt monkey instead even though she wasn't inherently disappointing either.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

The only reason that the “last character is disappointing” thing exists, essentially only in the Smash fanbase, is because the fanbase sets unrealistic expectations of what is coming last by virtue of it “being the last character”. It’s not even that bad of a thing, because that’s what happens with hype trains like Smash. Excitement is at a peak.

The added context of the Grinch Leak (despite Box theory being true the whole time) set expectations EVEN higher because folks were in the mood for a whole character blowout of fan favs. So you go from Mach Rider, Banjo, Geno, Isaac, Shadow, and Ken, down to Ken and Incineroar. While I had the info that spelled it out, not everybody did, therefore hype is impossible to meet, and disappointment comes forth.

I think “ending on a disappointment” is entirely subjective anyway. Let’s say Ultimate ends on Master Chief. Is that still a disappointment because it wasn’t 1st party, and there are folks who want an entire pass of 1st parties? I would say, no. Maybe to those people, but I think to the overall industry it would be an explosive announcement.

The argument that Smash “never ends with hype” is misleading for a number of reasons that seemingly just builds a narrative that some characters are inherently inferior to others, when that’s just not true in an objective sense, and it ignores how unexpected outcomes can drive hype, and the timing of particular announcements can come down to pure business decisions.

Carry on.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Honestly at this point you do have to expect that reveals are a roller coaster ride. The worst thing I did at Byleth's reveal was shrug, because ending a fighter's pass with an FE character after 4 third party characters is so on brand for Smash that I can't really get upset about it.

Its like still being disappointed that Board the Platforms never came back after Smash 64, realistically you can't really expect that at this point.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

(despite Box theory being true the whole time)

This will never not upset me. I didn't really have a horse in the race, but why in the heck did the stupidest consistency theory lookin' thing turn out to be the true leak?

 

[slrigeigdew]

My dream is that Ultimate DLC ends with some long requested out of left field 3rd party pick...

My realistic expectation is that it ends with a 1st party people were expecting in the base game like ARMS (that's NOT Geno or Waluigi). Basically Waddle Dee, Dixie Kong, Rex & Pyra etc.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

This will never not upset me. I didn't really have a horse in the race, but why in the heck did the stupidest consistency theory lookin' thing turn out to be the true leak?

Stupid? It was true!

Legit, I posted a Roster Maker image that lined up with adding a character between a certain set on one side (Ken) , and then two newcomers on the other side (Isabelle, Incineroar). It was circumstantial at the time, but it could actually be logically explained based on leaks, and well as a placeholder image that turned out to actually reflect the real thing.

Yet, few believed it. Why? Because it wasn’t what they wanted. Unfortunately, the truth does not conform to what people want to believe.

I still take solace in that, because it was the 2nd time I was told that I was wrong. I was sitting on a leak from someone who wasn’t Verg that said, “It’s Kencineroar”. So I came here, telling people, “It’s Kencineroar”. Yet, nobody believed me. Why? Because they didn’t want to.

But eh, I’ll just take that and always remember that Smash fans don’t always listen if the alternative is something they want.

 

[Slime Master]

I think the reason why "the last character is always disappointing" started spreading is that during base game speculation people were hyping up the idea that they would save the best for last, and then other people (correctly) pointed out that usually the hypest reveals are toward the beginning or middle of the reveal cycle, so some people just took that explanation too far.

So like, I wouldn't consider Olimar unhype, but he definitely isn't in the same tier as Sonic (or Snake), same deal with Shulk vs Mega Man, or Bayo vs Cloud.

 

[DarthEnderX]

This will never not upset me. I didn't really have a horse in the race, but why in the heck did the stupidest consistency theory lookin' thing turn out to be the true leak?

Was box theory even, like, useful though?

The only thing the theory told us, was that there were two characters left. Not who those characters were. A theory that doesn't tell you the identities of any characters doesn't have much value.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I think the reason why "the last character is always disappointing" started spreading is that during base game speculation people were hyping up the idea that they would save the best for last, and then other people (correctly) pointed out that usually the hypest reveals are toward the beginning or middle of the reveal cycle, so some people just took that explanation too far.

So like, I wouldn't consider Olimar unhype, but he definitely isn't in the same tier as Sonic (or Snake), same deal with Shulk vs Mega Man, or Bayo vs Cloud.

And from a business perspective, that does make sense. Build the hype relatively early to maximize interest in the product with the idea that even those that might be put off on news closer to release have likely already decided to buy it. Just look at movie trailers for major films, the hypest elements are typically in the initial teaser or first formal trailer, rarely anything after that goes for same level of building buzz. Honestly within the framework of a single Nintendo Direct is the only real place where they like to end things on a bang, and even that's not completely consistent.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

"last character is disappointing" is just an extra spicy way of saying "It isnt who I want"

 

[7NATOR]

Well in any case if the Roller coaster of Revealing thing is at Play again, then we should be getting some (Maybe Big) 3rd Party character either after ARMS or after that.

Also I don't know if I'm the only one, But i had a Conspiracy of the Structure of FP2

I think with Banjo, i think with this pass we might see the 3rd party area of this pass to be Western Dominated. I think for Western Owned Characters, Banjo was a good starting point because of the Fan Demand, Microsoft being down with the idea, and while he's not the biggest video game icon, he is a Nintendo Icon. I see Banjo as a test for Sakurai and the team of working with a Western owned property and the struggles that might come with it. Smash as had Western content since Rayman Trophy with Smash 4, but Playable characters and Spirits/Trophies are whole different scenarios.

Because Banjo seemed to work well and Sakurai now has been accustomed to working with Western companies, We might be transitioning to a period of getting Western Icons. We are starting to get more Western Content like Cuphead Mii Costume, Warframe spirit, and Ubisoft Mii Costumes, so it might be a sign. I think because getting the really big characters takes alot of money, I think that's a part of the reason we might see more first parties in the Pass to recoup some of the costs and royalties of Big Western I.Ps and junk.

Was box theory even, like, useful though?

The only thing the theory told us, was that there were two characters left. Not who those characters were. A theory that doesn't tell you the identities of any characters doesn't have much value.

On it's own it wasn't the most useful, but because there was alot of Inside info and leaks (I think the Ken Pic leak came before Box Theory too), i think that's what made it easier to decipher who the characters were

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Stupid? It was true!

I just sounds stupid. As far as I saw it was just "Hey, there's space for two other characters on this box. That must mean we're only getting two more characters." It sounds so close to the character select screen slot arguments from Super Smash Bros. for Wii U that it just didn't seem plausible, or even intelligent.

And from a business perspective, that does make sense. Build the hype relatively early to maximize interest in the product with the idea that even those that might be put off on news closer to release have likely already decided to buy it. Just look at movie trailers for major films, the hypest elements are typically in the initial teaser or first formal trailer, rarely anything after that goes for same level of building buzz. Honestly within the framework of a single Nintendo Direct is the only real place where they like to end things on a bang, and even that's not completely consistent.

You'd think it'd be best to start and end with your best since that's what people remember most. But I'm not a business man so I guess I wouldn't know...

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Was box theory even, like, useful though?

The only thing the theory told us, was that there were two characters left. Not who those characters were. A theory that doesn't tell you the identities of any characters doesn't have much value.

Actually the way it was lined up did indicate one of the two would be an echo from a Smash 4 newcomer at the earliest iirc

I just sounds stupid. As far as I saw it was just "Hey, there's space for two other characters on this box. That must mean we're only getting two more characters." It sounds so close to the character select screen slot arguments from Super Smash Bros. for Wii U that it just didn't seem plausible, or even intelligent.


You'd think it'd be best to start and end with your best since that's what people remember most. But I'm not a business man so I guess I wouldn't know...

Nintendo's leaked **** with boxart before, another infamous example being Fire Emblem Warriors leaking Celica, remember, Nintendo are idiots who leaked Lucario and some veterans in a Brawl Dojo picture about stickers

 

[Schnee117]

Was box theory even, like, useful though?

The only thing the theory told us, was that there were two characters left. Not who those characters were. A theory that doesn't tell you the identities of any characters doesn't have much value.

It told us that there was an echo fighter in this group of characters because the box followed a specific pattern

I just sounds stupid. As far as I saw it was just "Hey, there's space for two other characters on this box. That must mean we're only getting two more characters." It sounds so close to the character select screen slot arguments from Super Smash Bros. for Wii U that it just didn't seem plausible, or even intelligent.

A box with set dimensions and a very specific design is in no way comparable to a character select screen that can easily be reorganised and resized as and when it's needed.

 

[slrigeigdew]

Yeah I think the final direct and Fighter Pass 5 reveal both suffered from the same fate of external factors greatly raising the expectations of the final characters. For the former it was the Grinch Leak and the latter it was... well it was multiple things really but I guess the biggest thing was that the first four characters of the Fighter's Pass was third party which set a pattern in (almost) everyone's mind.

 

[Perkilator]

Yeah I think the final direct and Fighter Pass 5 reveal both suffered from the same fate of external factors greatly raising the expectations of the final characters. For the former it was the Grinch Leak and the latter it was... well it was multiple things really but I guess the biggest thing was that the first four characters of the Fighter's Pass was third party which set a pattern in (almost) everyone's mind.

Plus, a Devil May Cry announcement happening the same day as the presentation, so people were expecting Dante for FP5 (for which I dint blame them, it’s not like we predicted a Nintendo character for FP5 regardless).

 

[Schnee117]

Plus, a Devil May Cry announcement happening the same day as the presentation, so people were expecting Dante for FP5 (for which I dint blame them, it’s not like we predicted a Nintendo character for FP5 regardless).

They were very explicit about it being for the DMC3 port, anyone expecting it to tie into Smash can only blame themselves.

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

Dear Sakurai, end my suffering by making Layton a spirit, please

I feel like this with Layton, just spirit him or reveal him, my heart can’t take this every Tuesday

 

[Cosmic77]

I'm pretty sure the last character(s) have always been met with criticism, regardless of who they were. Happened with Wolf, Duck Hunt and Dark Pit, Corrin and Bayo, Incineroar and Piranha Plant, and I guess technically Byleth too since a lot of people were convinced the character who was once going to be the final newcomer would be some spectacular addition that would end things on a high note.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I mean, I can dig up some pics that were used to actually corroborate leaks and the circumstantial thoughts around the box.

Leakers said, “We’ve only heard Isabelle, Ken, Incineroar”.

The placeholder box art had two halves of characters, broken up in sets of a certain number. It was separated in such a way that suggested there was a character we didn’t know of that would be between Palutena and Corrin (or Cloud, can’t remember). As characters were lined up in order of addition to Smash, this suggested there was an echo fighter. Who did this point to most logically? Ken, as an echo of Ryu. One part of insider leaking corroborated.

Two remaining characters. Pokémon is always a contender. Isabelle was highly speculated. The argument was that Isabelle and Incineroar would be the final characters. That also corroborated what insiders suggested.

This was up against arguments such as:

“The placeholder doesn’t have to look like that!”
“That’s disappointing!”
“But Grinch Leak!”

None of which were actually arguments that have convincing backing. It was based entirely in “that’s not what I want, so no way is it true”, which was further pushed by the Grinch Leak, which then put the entirety of the fanbase against “insiders”, which blew up in the faces of many folks when, as expected, the outcome with the corroborated evidence ended up being true.

But what do I know?

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

It is amusing that I think one of the reasons ARMS got relatively positive attention is that there was no large scale patterns, rumors, or supposed leaks around the time it was revealed. One of the benefits of being part of a mini-direct during a relative drought of major Nintendo news I suppose.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

I don't know, I wasn't a big Incineroar supporter, never was. And yet even I was hyped by the reveal.

The only newcomer in Ultimate that I've been honestly disappointed by so far was The Hero, and even that was only really because I read through several months' worth of posts of people going on and on and on about how "Erdrick is 100% confirmed".

 

[Opossum]

I mean, I can dig up some pics that were used to actually corroborate leaks and the circumstantial thoughts around the box.

Leakers said, “We’ve only heard Isabelle, Ken, Incineroar”.

The placeholder box art had two halves of characters, broken up in sets of a certain number. It was separated in such a way that suggested there was a character we didn’t know of that would be between Palutena and Corrin (or Cloud, can’t remember). As characters were lined up in order of addition to Smash, this suggested there was an echo fighter. Who did this point to most logically? Ken, as an echo of Ryu. One part of insider leaking corroborated.

Two remaining characters. Pokémon is always a contender. Isabelle was highly speculated. The argument was that Isabelle and Incineroar would be the final characters. That also corroborated what insiders suggested.

This was up against arguments such as:

“The placeholder doesn’t have to look like that!”
“That’s disappointing!”
“But Grinch Leak!”

None of which were actually arguments that have convincing backing. It was based entirely in “that’s not what I want, so no way is it true”, which was further pushed by the Grinch Leak, which then put the entirety of the fanbase against “insiders”, which blew up in the faces of many folks when, as expected, the outcome with the corroborated evidence ended up being true.

But what do I know?

It's worth noting, IIRC, that the box was shown off the day of Isabelle's reveal I think. She wasn't on the box but we knew she was in. Ken and Incineroar were the only variables, alongside the "Square Enix newcomer" from vergeben that we didn't know what was happening with.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I don't know, I wasn't a big Incineroar supporter, never was. And yet even I was hyped by the reveal.

The only newcomer in Ultimate that I've been honestly disappointed by so far was The Hero, and even that was only really because I read through several months' worth of posts of people going on and on and on about how "Erdrick is 100% confirmed".

I was also tired by the “IT’S DRAGON QUEST 100%” talk. Hero’s actual trailer was dope tho, one of my favorites, so I can’t complain for that aspect