I find it hard to believe we're still discussing the ballot from 5 years ago, because personally I believe that the ballot kind of fell apart as soon as Cloud got confirmed for Smash.
A ton of votes on the ballots were based on expectations of fans, sure some fanbases voted for the stars with requests like Goku/Shrek/Spongebob; but most people were rooted in reality AKA they voted for characters that for one reason or another were in the "spotlight". Characters like Banjo/Shantae got ridiculously popular because their companies pushed hard for them, and so they got a ton of attention from those who participated in the ballot. K. Rool/Ridley were massive within the 1st party requests too. Even now, expectations still control a large part of who we vote for. No one out there is voting for a Sony character like Ratchet, or Kratos because despite being "possible" they would definitely be super unexpected.
This is all just personal opinion but, I would be surprised if Cloud was a popular ballot pick, at least compared to his overall popularity; and there were probably quite a few Square characters that got more votes. This is because he was one of those "wishful" thinking characters, that no one payed attention to at that time (in Smash). When Cloud got in (after Ballot was finalized), expectations on what "could" get into Smash completely shifted around. Suddenly, those "impossible" picks didn't feel so impossible anymore.
Now if we're talking about specific characters during the ballot, it's hard to tell where someone like Geno placed. We know that Sakurai considers him to be "popular" when he discussed his costume back in Smash 4; but we have 0 idea what Sakurai quantifies as "popular". Top 10? Top 50? Top 100? We have 0 clue. He certainly wasn't his first pick for a Square character (that being Cloud), or the second (Hero); but he ended up getting a costume before someone like Hero. Is it because negotiating a DQ costume was hard? I dunno because DQ seems messy in terms of music, and while Akira Toriyama does own the rights to designs, I don't know if it would be hassle getting an Erdrick costume. That begs the question, did Geno get a costume because he was the most popular request for a Square rep (right behind something like FF); or because he was "popular enough" and negotiating for the other "popular" Square characters was too difficult, so they used Geno as a backup?
Who really knows, and it doesn't matter anyways anymore; Geno got the costume which exploded his popularity within the fanbase. Even nowadays if Nintendo retook a poll, I'm pretty sure Geno would still place way higher then last time (I predict that he would place in the Top 20 in a new Smash ballot). So while he is not as universally voted for as someone like Ridley or Banjo, he does have the popularity backing him up NOW. That said, while I would say Geno's popularity rose within the last 5 years, there's definitely a ton of characters that rose with him/past him or just dropped a ton. For example, someone like Phoenix Wright or a Bravely character had a "respectable" amount of push in the ballot, but nowadays their competitors (Dante or Geno) likely outdo them by a large margin. That's not to say they're impossible, but if we're only considering fan popularity within Smash; they are definitely more unlikely.
So what I'm getting at is that the ballot from 5 years ago is outdated. That may be good for certain characters, it may be bad for certain characters.
Lastly, would everyone kindly shut up about taking everything Sakurai says in interviews as gospel. I doubt Sakurai combs through every word he says to make sure he doesn't end up saying something that people online take as hard rules/facts/hints for years to come. The only thing said by him that is set in stone is that he doesn't want non-video game characters in Smash, he has repeated this sentiment many times. Everything else can literally change over a span of a few years.
Don't forget"
"Ridley is too big for Smash" didn't deconfirm Ridley for good.
Likewise Sakurai saying that:
"I couldn't think of a way to make Heihachi work" doesn't deconfirm Heihachi.
"Geno is really popular, and I thought of him as a playable fighter" doesn't confirm Geno.
"Ultimately, I would have loved to put in Rex and ARMS but they were too late for base" does not hint at Rex.
"Lloyd is the only choice for a Tales character" does not confirm that Lloyd would be the only choice for a Tales character.
"There are too many swordfighters in Smash" does not confirm that we will not be getting more swordies. The rest of the pass could still be entirely swordies.
Most of the characters that do end up getting in Smash are usually characters that he has never talked about. People need to stop acting like Sakurai stating (insert character here is cool) + Smash, somehow magically means that the character is 100x more likely to get in. Sakurai using the Camelot angle didn't hint at Isaac getting into Smash, likewise Sakurai saying something on the spot in an interview does not indicate future plans in ANY way.