Sorry for the delayed response, had a busy end to my week and forgot to respond.
What I'm saying is why those franchises don't have characters in Smash doesn't matter. What matters is that someone has to have an appetite or some sort of interest in actively reviving those franchises before they're going to get into Smash at this point unless Nintendo commits particularly hard to a fan demand angle on some of them, and that's really only Isaac at this point as far as franchises from Nintendo not in Smash is concerned. Yes, IPs would succeed with time and effort potentially (though I do think some IPs not represented are just genuinely too niche to do well no matter how much you prop them up, my beloved Chibi-Robo being a prime example), but again, where is that decision to commit to a revival coming from? It does need to be calculated because Nintendo is a business first and foremost. Building an IP always takes a risk, but we're mostly not talking about new IPs, we're talking about franchises that have had multiple games to either decline or blew their chances at reaching wider audiences via poor sells.
You can do a 100 postmortems of dead franchises and games, and say, "If everything had gone right, this might have succeeded in a different way" but that's not really always going to be the most productive conversation to have because you're dealing with ideal hypothetical situations and not the realities of those franchises. When we talk Nintendo as a business and Smash as a product, everything that does get developed is an opportunity cost to something else. The work you spend trying to revive a dead franchise could go into developing a new franchise, the work you spend developing a Smash character could go into any number of additional fighters for other purposes. You do have to take risks in business, but giving another shot to an IP that never performed particularly well at the height of its popularity is a big risk in of itself, let alone 10-20 years after it has been last seen. Games, franchises, and characters get revived either because someone with a high enough position takes an interest in them or fans genuinely demonstrate a profitability to be made in the process.
For Melee, there's not actually much risk to including previously made fighters in a localized version of the game. And for Fire Emblem specifically, Smash got the games localized... but when did they break through and when did the series save itself from near extinction? 11 years after Marth and Roy debuted in Smash thanks to specifically Awakening being such an incredible game. Smash got the series localized and that helped eventually lead to the desirable outcome for Fire Emblem, but it as a brand struggled for a decade after inclusion in Smash and largely managed to survive on the good graces of higher up Nintendo executives.
And Kid Icarus wouldn't exist without Sakurai, not Smash. It was his vision that brought us Uprising, not Pit being in Brawl and we can see that even the success of Uprising ultimately has led nowhere for the franchise even because there just isn't anybody interested in making it while Sakurai is busy with Smash.
What I'm saying is the "Smash bump" or the idea that "Smash saves franchises/revives dead franchises" isn't really something that has a whole lot of compelling evidence behind it. It plays a role in everything and does give characters another chance to shine, but in terms of tangible effects outside of Smash, I don't really see much. I'm not saying you can't put a previously dead or forgotten franchise in Smash, I'm just saying, it doesn't really make sense to pin the hopes and dreams of such franchises on a Smash inclusion that statistically won't result in a huge revival and to say that business executives and leaders at Nintendo will need to see something compelling to make them invest such franchises in Smash at this point.
I was not expecting a response after all this time. Though I can hardly blame you - work has me swamped as well.
You say that we need to show Nintendo that there is demand before they do anything for those franchises... but really, that's wishful thinking. Mother 3 basically became a meme in the Nintendo community because no matter how much fans ask for it, Nintendo just won't do it. Same for a new F-Zero. They either are unaware of fan demand because they aren't paying close enough attention to fans (K. Rool's pre-ballot popularity being an example) or they are aware and still won't do jack.
It's easy to say these games "blew it by not selling" when not all games are launched the same. Let's take a look at the three games supported by Operation Rainfall, for one. Xenoblade Chronicles, The Last Story and Pandora's Tower. One of these was
clearly better marketed and pushed compared to the others, so it's no wonder it was the one that had staying power - even though all three had demand and fan drive behind them.
And I don't think you're making a good comparison with the "old franchise vs new franchise" aspect. One look at the marketing campaign for Splatoon should tell you that while they did expect it to be a success, it was unprecedented even by their standards - an exception to their expectations, if you will. Believing that every new IP will do just as well is flat out bad management. Not every series needs to be the new Mario, so why would you expect a similar return from old series? Chibi-Robo never needed Mario's budget, but it needed
some degree of push and have its future depend on a game that was actually close to what its fans wanted rather than just a spinoff that plays in a different manner.
Heck, you say it yourself: pre-Awakening FE survived mostly on the good graces of Nintendo execs... even though it was heavily underperforming and was pretty much lined up for the same fate as other IPs. So why can't they do the same for other franchises, then? In fact, I think FE is a great example in this situation - it wasn't underperforming at the time for being outright
bad, just for not being pushed enough. The same can be applied to quite a few other Nintendo series out there.
I'm not saying Smash would suddenly make Golden Sun sell like Zelda, because that's just flat out absurd. But any bump in an otherwise inactive series is better than nothing. Sure, you can say that there isn't "evidence of tangible effects"... but isn't that also because we don't see it happening enough? I think it's weird when people say that "we can't risk backing this franchise" because their possible success is hypothetical when the very thought behind these franchises supposedly not selling is also based entirely on hypotheticals, if online support is anything to go by in some cases.
And yes, there are many other actions Nintendo could take to revitalize old IPs besides Smash... but this is a Newcomer thread in a Smash based forum and this whole discussion spawned because of the first party Brawl newcomers, so of course I'm gonna focus on that aspect during this conversation.
...All that said, I think we should take this on private, just because it's pretty much off-topic by this point. Good convos like this have become a rare sight, sadly.