Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Knight Dude]

I wouldn't be opposed to more Nintendo characters. Hell one of my most wanted was a character from ARMS. So in that regard I'm pretty happy. For the most part though, I feel like I got most of the Nintendo characters I like. Though there's characters like Dixie and Isaac I'd still gladly support.

That said, I do think 3rd parties are at this point more interesting, because of how large the general gaming scope is now. And some of my other favorite series ARE third party, Mega Man, Street Fighter, Tekken, DMC, Mortal Kombat ect. ect. I also like KOF/FF, but I'm not as familiar with them as Tekken. Granted, of those, MM and SF are the main ones in. Streets of Rage I think has some of the cooler SEGA characters, so it'd be nice to see them pop up.

Granted, I'd probably pop-off for certain obscure Metroid and Kirby characters, and I do at least get the appeal of Waluigi and Paper Mario.

EDIT: Throw in Wonder Red too. He'd be dope.

 

[HansShotFirst20]

It wont be miserable once you get crazy amount 3rd parties over them.
Palutena? Pit? No thanks
Now Valkyrie and Whirlo? That's KING ****.

But i'll play the smallest violin to the 5 Ice Climbers and 2 ROB fans on planet earth that unironically like the NES games if their that passionate about them I guess.

At a certain point, a lot of first party characters gain more of an identity in Smash than they ever could have otherwise. Ness, Captain Falcon, Jigglypuff, Icy's, Game & Watch, R.O.B., Piranha Plant, Wii Fit, K Rool -- all are characters that would probably go totally by the wayside if they didn't build an identity in the Smash audience. Remember that it was Smash fans, not fans of NES Ice Climbers, that begged and begged for Ice Climber's return.

It's reasonable (and smart) to doubt the chances of some more obscure 1st parties -- but it's unfair to doubt they'd have a chance of growing on the Smash audience like so many characters have, and dismiss them as underwhelming.

 

[ZeldaPlayer87]

The lack of Twintelle votes is the ultimate form of shade...

I’m pretty excited to see an ARMS rep, but I keep hearing speculation for things beyond this pass. Hasn’t it been confirmed outright that these six characters will be the last six? I don’t remember who said off-hand (GameXplain?), but I recall something similar.

The character is either going to be Min Min, or Sakurai is shaking things up by adding Spring Man. We’ll have to see what happens.

 

[HansShotFirst20]

The lack of Twintelle votes is the ultimate form of shade...

I’m pretty excited to see an ARMS rep, but I keep hearing speculation for things beyond this pass. Hasn’t it been confirmed outright that these six characters will be the last six? I don’t remember who said off-hand (GameXplain?), but I recall something similar.

The character is either going to be Min Min, or Sakurai is shaking things up by adding Spring Man. We’ll have to see what happens.

Sakurai said there were 'no plans' for DLC after the second fighters pass -- which pretty much just means they don't know what they're gonna do afterowrds. There's a possibility they do more characters, but I find that unlikely.

As for Twintelle? It's simple -- she's one of the few characters deconfirmed by the ARMS reveal (which stated this characters arms can stretch) and Min Min is just 1000x better.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

and Min Min is just 1000x better.

yo, can we please not make this a war? I say this as somebody who was deep in the Banjo/Steve trenches

We're gonna be here for 3 months and I'd rather not have toxic back and forth turd flinging make this much longer and grueling than it should

 

[HansShotFirst20]

yo, can we please not start a war?

I say this as somebody who was deep in the Banjo/Steve trenches

Oh god that was the worst. I was still on the Papagenos server back then, there was this one guy with a 'Grotesque Steve' profile who was honestly worse than anyone I've seen on this site. One of the reasons I left got myself banned by mass tagging kek

 

[Knight Dude]

I wouldn't jump into saying we're only getting Nintendo stuff or nearly all 3rd party again just yet. For all we know, it'll somehow turn out to be 50/50. Too early to really get into any patterns. And if we're taking all DLC into account, we got 4/7 being third party, so it's not as much as a disparity in the grand scheme of things currently. Though that can change, since looking at only the pass 4/5 is a much larger lean into Third party series.

Regardless of which is which, just give me characters I give a **** about and I'm good.

 

[HansShotFirst20]

I wouldn't jump into saying we're only getting Nintendo stuff or nearly all 3rd party again just yet. For all we know, it'll 50/50 as well. Too early to really get into any patterns. And if we're taking all DLC into account, we got 4/7 being third party, so it's not as much as a disparity in the grand scheme of things currently. Though that can change.

I wouldn't even count PP among 'total dlc'; he was planned as a launch character, and didn't go through the same DLC selection process as the rest of the characters.

 

[Knight Dude]

I wouldn't even count PP among 'total dlc'; he was planned as a launch character, and didn't go through the same DLC selection process as the rest of the characters.

I suppose so. But it was still sold after the game's launch whether intended for base game or not, so I personally count it. I get where you're coming from though.

 

[Diddy Kong]

I am for once mostly very happy that the attention has shifted from 3rd party characters alone to first party characters again. I like ARMS enough despite never played it to warrant a character. But am mostly happy that first party characters aren't doomed anymore, and neither are spirits and Assist Trophies.

Also, Isaac might be one of the very likely additions now. But I fear he might be overlooked for another new and recent character, for example maybe a Bravely Default character? I'm also sort of expecting a Zelda character now, if BotW2 gives us anything.

Anyway, exciting times.

Speaking of ARMS however, am sort of expecting to see a composite ARMS fighter and not a specific one. All other major characters could be alternatives. Kinda like the Hero's of Dragon Quest and the Koopalings and Bowser Jr.

 

[P.Kat]

This would actually be a pretty cool idea considering this is a Nintendo game. If I had to choose..

Well for my all Nintendo Pass, I'd chose:
Min Min (ARMS)
Elma (Xenoblade X)
FI (Zelda)
Zacian (Pokemon)
Garchomp (feat. Cynthia)
Akira Howard (Astral Chain)

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I wouldn't even count PP among 'total dlc'; he was planned as a launch character, and didn't go through the same DLC selection process as the rest of the characters.

We don't know if PP was actually planned as a launch character at any point. It could've gone either way. All we know is it was worked on during the base game, but that's going to happen for any of the first DLC characters if they're rather early.

Sakurai has yet to really specify any of this, so it's still a mystery to us. It could've been planned as DLC from the very start for all we know. That's how little we really know at this point. There's basically 3 things that could've happened, keeping in mind his base game character set was never added to specifically;

1. PP was there from the start, but moved to DLC due to time constraints.
2. PP was already brought up from the start, but was always DLC.
3. PP came about later as an idea as the first DLC character, but done early enough to not be part of any kind of Fighter's Pass, an idea which came up later anyway.

It's hard to say if I lean towards 2 or 3, mind you. But I don't think it was actually going to be base game at all. A lot of the "evidence" is just literally being worked on during base game(including files), which is the logical time either way, because it was first DLC. To clarify an earlier sentence, Sakurai said he never added any characters to the game for the base game itself. All base game characters were planned from the start. This doesn't mean PP couldn't have been base, but it makes it questionable if it ever was base. Stuff like the Palutena's Guidance could've been done at any time during base, so it's not useful information either. We don't know how development went at all, which makes it very difficult to explain anything. A lot of files we only know showed up far "later"(I don't remember if it was demo or dev build information, or even review copies, but that's the earliest we knew of the files. Which is very lacking in information. About September, if I remember right).

 

[Guybrush20X6]

At a certain point, a lot of first party characters gain more of an identity in Smash than they ever could have otherwise. Ness, Captain Falcon, Jigglypuff, Icy's, Game & Watch, R.O.B., Piranha Plant, Wii Fit, K Rool -- all are characters that would probably go totally by the wayside if they didn't build an identity in the Smash audience. Remember that it was Smash fans, not fans of NES Ice Climbers, that begged and begged for Ice Climber's return.

It's reasonable (and smart) to doubt the chances of some more obscure 1st parties -- but it's unfair to doubt they'd have a chance of growing on the Smash audience like so many characters have, and dismiss them as underwhelming.

I soft dispute ROB and hard dispute Piranha Plant.

ROB for having enough notoriety in Trojaning the NES to make retro cameos before Smash and Piranha Plant for it's high public image being the reason it made it to playable at all.

 

[Calamitas]

It wont be miserable once you get crazy amount 3rd parties over them.
Palutena? Pit? No thanks
Now Valkyrie and Whirlo? That's KING ****.

But i'll play the smallest violin to the 5 Ice Climbers and 2 ROB fans on planet earth that unironically like the NES games if their that passionate about them I guess.

So instead of B-list Nintendo characters, you want D-list third party characters. Got it.

I am for once mostly very happy that the attention has shifted from 3rd party characters alone to first party characters again. I like ARMS enough despite never played it to warrant a character. But am mostly happy that first party characters aren't doomed anymore, and neither are spirits and Assist Trophies.

Also, Isaac might be one of the very likely additions now. But I fear he might be overlooked for another new and recent character, for example maybe a Bravely Default character? I'm also sort of expecting a Zelda character now, if BotW2 gives us anything.

Anyway, exciting times.

Speaking of ARMS however, am sort of expecting to see a composite ARMS fighter and not a specific one. All other major characters could be alternatives. Kinda like the Hero's of Dragon Quest and the Koopalings and Bowser Jr.

That echoes (heh) my sentiments exactly. I only ever played ARMS a bit at Gamescom but never got it because I didn't really want to get into another game that's mostly online, but I'll gladly take a character from it.

Also surprised that no one has really brought up that Isaac's chances are at least a bit better now.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Is there's that one rumoured tribute to Iwata character , am betting it's gonna be Balloon Fighter. Would give us a Nintendo retro character as well.

Am still saying that a BotW2 character is gonna be likely. Not sure who, but I'd hope for it to be Impa.

Okay since we're doing passes:

1. ARMS Fighting Robot (merged version of ARMS Fighters as a composite character)
2. Isaac, Golden Sun with Felix and Matthew as alternatives
3. Dixie Kong
4. Impa (BotW2 , she's suddenly a young warrior now in this game and helps you throughout the game or something, if not.. well then any other BotW2 character , since we don't know anything about the game yet)
5. Balloon Fighter
6. Pokémon from Sword / Shield ... Not sure who. I sure hope not Cinderance, but chances are high for it to appear...

 

[Trevenant]

Okay here's my BIG post for why I think the ARMS character, if it's only one, is more than likely Min Min.

First off, as I'm sure you've all seen before, there was a big ARMS event that started in November 2018 (when Smash DLC was revealed to the public) and ended in June 2019 (around E3, when Nintendo decided to do the second pass according to insiders like Imran)

Its wording seemed to suggest it doubled as a popularity contest. Its final match had Min Min and Ninjara pitted together after several matches had the characters racking in victories.

Spoiler: big image

View attachment 267429

In the end, the winner was Min Min.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

With what I just said about the timing of this event in correlation to Smash DLC, it can almost be inferred that it was planned from the get-go, with the results gauging what character they may choose. This leads me into another piece.

The creator of ARMS, Kosuke Yabuki, is credited as a game supervisor for Smash Ultimate and has a bunch of other big positions for some of the Switch and Wii U's best-sellers
https://armswiki.org/wiki/Kosuke_Yabuki
In matches he's played, he uses Min Min in most cases, with the only other fighter used being Max Brass. His surprise performance at the ARMS open invitational with Min Min made a lot of waves, covered by a lot of YouTubers including Etika.

He even said himself in an interview that his favorite characters are Min Min and Spring Man.
https://www.usgamer.net/articles/arms-postmortem-interview-kosuke-yabuki-twintelle

We've seen characters getting picked based on developer bias before, especially with Terry and the extreme bulk of SNK content that Sakurai brought with it. So with Yabuki more than likely having a big role in picking the ARMS character as the creator of the series and a big part of Smash Ultimate's development, I could see his favoritism making some sort of influence in the pick.

So we have Min Min, the series creator's favorite character winning overall in an popularity contest for a game that was probably planned to get a character for DLC based on this event's results, ALL BEING UNIFIED BY HER RESTAURANT BEING CALLED THE "MINTENDO NOODLE SHOP"

I rest my case.

Was Terry creator bias or was it just because he was the face of SNK? The latter seems more likely and like many others have pointed out crash bash probably doesn’t mean anything

 

[I.D.]

So it comes down to if Nintendo wants to include Rex, which seems unlikely, given not only is XC2 not being pushed by them anymore, but a different Xenoblade game is.

XB DE is getting changes to make it more connected to XB2 that are already apparent in the short trailer we got on Thursday, and the new epilogue is already being predicted by fans to have something to do with XB2 from what we know of it.

Also the "being pushed by Nintendo" argument is fragile. Who would argue that Nintendo had any plans to push ARMS before the mini Direct? For ****'s sake, you had people arguing that it was a FAILED and DEAD IP instead

Might as well say it here: I believe a Monolith Soft character is almost a guarantee. They have become an important studio for Nintendo, especially in recent years after the absolutely massive success of Breath of the Wild (which they significantly contributed to, being around half of the development team according to interviews), Xenoblade 2 placing the series in multi-million seller territory, and pretty much doubling in size. Despite that they've received almost no content in Ultimate beyond some spirits and a few songs. The arguments against it before (spirits/content already in Ultimate deconfirm, etc) are dead in the water now. It might not be Rex necessarily (though I believe Rex would be the most likely) but someone from them is probably coming.

 

[Diddy Kong]

XB DE is getting changes to make it more connected to XB2 that are already apparent in the short trailer we got yesterday, and the new epilogue is already being predicted by fans to have something to do with XB2 from what we know of it.

Also the "being pushed by Nintendo" argument is fragile. Who would argue that Nintendo had any plans to push ARMS before yesterday? For ****'s sake, you had people arguing that it was a FAILED and DEAD IP instead

Might as well say it here: I believe a Monolith Soft character is almost a guarantee. They have become an important studio for Nintendo, especially in recent years after the absolutely massive success of Breath of the Wild (which they significantly contributed to, being around half of the development team according to interviews), Xenoblade 2 placing the series in multi-million seller territory, and pretty much doubling in size. Despite that they've received almost no content in Ultimate beyond some spirits and a few songs. The arguments against it before (spirits/content already in Ultimate deconfirm, etc) are dead in the water now. It might not be Rex necessarily (though I believe Rex would be the most likely) but someone from them is probably coming.

A Xenoblade character seems likely indeed. Now that the original game is coming to Switch (which am going to get btw), there's a chance for a remake of Xenoblade X as well. That's the name of Elma's game right?

Anyway, yeah they are a major developer for Nintendo now. I wouldn't be surprised if they went and worked on some of Nintendo's own IPs more in the future. The way they animate natural environments and all makes them very suitable for titles as Zelda (which they did- and likely are doing now with BotW and it's sequel), Metroid, Donkey Kong and even Star Fox, as all of these franchises take place in deep, vast worlds with lots of focus on the envoirment and landscapes. Would be a loss not to have them help out. I mean, Koei Techmo was also working with Nintendo and Intelligent Systems on Three Houses. I think these sort of collaborations will shape the future for Nintendo and their more ambitious projects.

 

[HansShotFirst20]

Might as well say it here: I believe a Monolith Soft character is almost a guarantee.

Caleb from Blood in Smash pls

wait, wrong Monolith

 

[Ace C.R.O.S.S.]

Might as well say it here: I believe a Monolith Soft character is almost a guarantee

Please let it be Reiji and Xiaomu, please let it be Reiji and Xiaomu...

 

[MagnesD3]

Okay here’s my full first party pass (no assist trophies)

1. Twintelle (should be Spring Man first tho (just please don’t let it be “kawaiidesune” blechk minmin good god)
2. Paper Mario
3. Porky
4. Black Shadow
5. Demise w Ghirahim
6. Saki

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Dear Nintendo.

If you make Min Min the ARMS representative, PLEASE!!! Do not make Ramen Bowl her stage.

That is all.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

So instead of B-list Nintendo characters, you want D-list third party characters. Got it

You're way to nice to kid icarus if you think it's a "B-lister" lol

 

[HansShotFirst20]

Okay here’s my full first party pass (no assist trophies)

1. Twintelle (should be Spring Man first tho (just please don’t let it be “kawaiidesune” blechk minmin good god)
2. Paper Mario
3. Porky
4. Black Shadow
5. Demise w Ghirahim
6. Saki

hmmm something about this list rubs me the wrong way...

 

[slrigeigdew]

Speaking of ARMS however, am sort of expecting to see a composite ARMS fighter and not a specific one. All other major characters could be alternatives. Kinda like the Hero's of Dragon Quest and the Koopalings and Bowser Jr.

I've seen this same exact phrase said so many times in the community that I'm pretty much convinced that this not the case.

In all likelihood I see another Byleth situation where we're getting the protagonist wielding the signature weapons of the other characters. The most boring outcome but atleast we can expect some awesome alts.

 

[Mamboo07]

Dear Nintendo.

If you make Min Min the ARMS representative, PLEASE!!! Do not make Ramen Bowl her stage.

That is all.

Why not? Is it cause of the bombs or something?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

My predictions.

76: Minmin
77: Crash Bandicoot
78: Euden
79: 2B
80: Travis Touchdown
81: Xenoblade rep

Thoughts?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Why not? Is it cause of the bombs or something?

No it's the geometry. It's literally just Green Hill Zone, but without the breakable terrain, and I'm not particularly fond of Green Hill Zone.

My predictions.

76: Minmin
77: Crash Bandicoot
78: Euden
79: 2B
80: Travis Touchdown
81: Xenoblade rep

Thoughts?

I don't think a Xenoblace Chronicles character would be last since that'd be far away from the game's release (unless they're working on that Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition). Maybe swap their place with Euden.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I don't think a Xenoblace Chronicles character would be last since that'd be far away from the game's release (unless they're working on that Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition). Maybe swap their place with Euden.

Very well then.

Who do you think the Xenoblade rep would be given Nintendo is picking?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Very well then.

Who do you think the Xenoblade rep would be given Nintendo is picking?

If it's from Xenoblade Chronicles: Fiora
If it's from Xenoblade Chronicles X: Elma (possibly with Lin and Cross helping her out)
If it's from Xenoblade Chronicles 2: Rex & Pyra/Mythra

Of these, I'd say Fiora is most likely now, and Elma is most likely later.

 

[Dinoman96]

Honestly? I think it'd be beyond lame if Xenoblade 1 got another character before the other installments got anything.

 

[Trevenant]

My predictions.

76: Minmin
77: Crash Bandicoot
78: Euden
79: 2B
80: Travis Touchdown
81: Xenoblade rep

Thoughts?

Didn’t Sakurai say in some interview around Christmas that it was the first time he met Taro? If he didn’t or unless I’m missing something that suggests that she wasn’t negotiated for.

Euden on the other hand, probably would have already been in the game if they really viewed it as highly as they do arms which makes me think a playable character is kind of a long shot imo.

 

[MrElectroG64]

It wont be miserable once you get crazy amount 3rd parties over them.
Palutena? Pit? No thanks
Now Valkyrie and Whirlo? That's KING ****.

But i'll play the smallest violin to the 5 Ice Climbers and 2 ROB fans on planet earth that unironically like the NES games if their that passionate about them I guess.

It's because of opinions like this you're not in charge of anything important. You only think in terms of "LE EPIC HYYYYPE!!!" instead of gameplay. Just adding characters because people want them isn't a real reason to have them in the game, considering most characters the general public ask for offer next to nothing gameplay-wise. Your "ideal roster" would have smash played by people for at most a week before people drop it, due to how un-engaging the gameplay is.

 

[Guynamednelson]

the general public ask for

Except what Shwampy would prefer is just as obscure, if not more, than Kid Icarus characters. You think Valkyrie and Whirlo are anywhere near more mainstream than Pit?

Then again a lot of speculation can be summed up as "we can't have this character because it's not the most mainstream thing ever, but we can have THIS character who's not the most mainstream thing ever".

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

aight, here's my mostly unbiased ARMS probability tier list feel free to critique

Spoiler: full explanation

Our best bets idk man, Mii costumes and assist trophy be darned, I do think it's simply Spring Man or Ribbon Girl as basic as that may seem, they are the mascots after all. Could be wrong tho.

I'd keep a close eye on em If Spring Man or Ribbon Girl aren't our ARMS reps, it's definitely one of these four. All got something major going for em whether it be popularity, importance to the game or what have you. They may be a bit wackier than Ribbon Girl or Spring Man but I think they're also simple enough that they keep the essence of ARMS' core as a whole. I think it's worth noting Coyle, Helix, and Max Brass have no current representation in Ultimate whatsoever whilst still having enough notoriety to become a viable option if we were to assume base game spirits still deconfim

Plausible these are characters that I think have something both strongly for, and strongly against their inclusion. For example, Twintelle and Mechanica are fairly popular characters, that being said, I don't think they'd represent ARMS as a whole very well. Shouldn't the representative, ya know, be using their actual arms? idk. Ninjara only really has a chance if they end up going the Hero route and have a bunch of ARMS characters in one. Though that would be a disservice to what makes the characters unique, Ninjara included.

No chance These characters just don't seem high priority enough compared to the others here. They're either too wacky, not as notable, or in some cases, both. Don't get me wrong these still be some fun and interesting choices for the most part, but I just don't see em happening

lol maybe next time biff, maybe next time

 

[Garteam]

Guess I should put in my Nintendo pass:
1. Spring Man (with Ribbon Girl, Ninjara, and Min Min as alts)
2. Bandana Waddle Dee
3. Rex and Pyra
4. Dixie Kong
5. Toxtricity
6. Waluigi

 

[Eldrake]

Okay, here's my Nintendo Pass, purposefully ignoring things like spirits and assist trophies.
FP6: Dr. Coyle (ARMS, duh)
FP7: Adeleine (Kirby)
FP8: Alexandra Roivas or Pious Augustus (Eternal Darkness)
FP9: Midna & Wolf Link (Legend of Zelda)
FP10: Kraid or

Spoiler: Samus Returns spoilers

The As-of-yet Unnamed Chozo Commander

(Metroid)
FP11: Karate Joe (Rhythm Heaven)

 

[NoOtherPersona]

Dang it, lads.
I hyped myself up for Lola Pop even though i now she's not getting in, why do i keep doing this to myself ?

Min Min would be a great addition though, and i'm pretty sure that it's gonna be her.

She's best girl man don't worry in a better world she's in

 

[HansShotFirst20]

ARMS characters based on what kind of pick they would be

Spoiler

 

[Mamboo07]

My Fighters Pass: (Only Nintendo)
1. Helix (ARMS)
2. Bandana Dee (Kirby)
3. Poochy (Yoshi)
4. Shake King (Wario)
5. Toxtricity (Pokemon)
6. Titan Dweevil (Pikmin)