Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[SNEKeater]

If there were ever a third Street Fighter character in Smash, you have two clear options:

- Akuma
- Chun-Li
Akuma is pretty much if you're lazy and want to make a , a solid portion of his moveset is the same as the shoto bros. But Chun-Li is synonymous with the franchise. She's just as important to any of the plots going around as Ryu, if not more direct involvement with a majority of the characters. So if they choose to make an entirely original character, it's 100% Chun-Li.

Did I mention I ****ing called Guile being an Assist months prior? Call me Sabi or Vergeben or I don't know any of the other ones but I'm never living that down.

I'd rather have Chun-Li, Akuma is cool but if we're talking DLC Chun-Li seems the best option. I mean, DLC characters are completely unique.

In any case I think Chun-Li could have been an assist, that's at least more than a spirit. Or giving her a Mii Costume. I think she doesn't have one lol

 

[MrElectroG64]

I don't know if this was mentioned already, but I feel like its really important to note that the Assist Trophy "rule" isn't quite abolished yet. There is a very high likelihood that Springman is the (base)character for the ARMS rep, meaning its also very likely that Springtron could easily replace the Springman assist when he's being used. Because of this, this could be Sakurai's way of bypassing the "rule" or at least altering it in a way that still keeps it alive.

The rule is likely abolished completely, but I wouldn't count on it still, as Sakurai himself IS the one who made that rule to begin with, if the Smash 4 Waluigi twitter post is anything to go by.

Hopefully the ARMS rep is multiple characters in one. That'd be really exciting. The way the character was left unspecified in the direct leads me to believe that tomfoolery is afoot and will likely be something so weird and out of left field that nobody could actually guess it. Perhaps something like "A fighter with alternate costumes that actually function as echoes in some way" such as a Ribbon Girl alt having a third jump, or a Helix alt that obviously would have different proportions and the ability to stretch or something. It's definitely a long shot, but Hero ended up being an extremely similar situation, in that he was something we couldn't have even hoped to guess (in terms of gameplay, that is) and was honestly just as ambitious as the ARMS idea I just gave. It would probably be the exact same amount of work to complete, actually lol.

Here's how likely I consider each ARMS character. Characters aren't ordered within tiers

View attachment 267168

Those in tier S are consistently being promoted whenever ARMS is brought up, so I think those are our safest bets.

Anyone in tier C is someone I can't see getting in Smash, like, at all. I don't think Nintendo would choose them to represent the ARMS franchise. I wouldn't say they're impossible, but extremely unlikely.

If I'm being honest, if Springtron isn't used for the Springman assist Alfonso style, then I can't see them not using him as an alt for Springman.

 

[Megadoomer]

The only upgrade I see happening is Shantae tbh. Her moveset goes perfectly with Smash.

A lot of characters who are currently spirits (or assist trophies) have movesets that would work perfectly for Smash. Rayman, for example, has an entire moveset from Rayman Legends alone, without even getting into his 3D games (and I could be here all day listing spirits that have easily adaptable movesets), and there are plenty of assist trophies (Alucard, Isaac, Bomberman, Midna, Shovel Knight...) that have more than enough material to be a playable character if they decided to upgrade assist trophies.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

A lot of characters who are currently spirits (or assist trophies) have movesets that would work perfectly for Smash. Rayman, for example, has an entire moveset from Rayman Legends alone, without even getting into his 3D games, and there are plenty of assist trophies (Alucard, Isaac, Bomberman, Midna, Shovel Knight...) that have more than enough material for an entire moveset.

Oh god if we get Spring Man promoted but not Alucard, who almost became playable, I will personally have The Big Sad

 

[True Blue Warrior]

On the other hand, Chun-Li has pretty much become the co face of Street Fighter, so while she wouldn't be added before Ryu, she pretty is always added alongside him in literally everything but Smash (same goes for Ms. Pac-Man with Pac-Man). To this end, Ribbon Girl pretty much serves as the Chun-Li or Ms. Pac-Man of ARMS, in that while it would be weird for her to be added without Spring Man, it would also be equally as weird for Spring Man to be added without her, because of their co-mascot status, similar to the Inkling Girl and Inkling Boy. You can't have either one without the other without the representation feeling incomplete.

Spoiler

As far as I know the only fighting game titles Ryu was playable but Chun-Li wasn’t after her debut appearance in SF2 was the first two versions of SF3, Smash 4 and Smash Ultimate.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Good morning!

So how is everyone still with the announcement of the new fighter?

Me? I think its great ARMS is getting an rep. Feels like a game that should of had one for base. My bets are still on Minmin.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

It proves they are possible. That alone makes the odds go up from 0%.

I see the logic, but I don’t actually think that’s reliable.

Again, as a disclaimer, I’ve never really been “anti-upgrade”, just thought they were unlikely. So my thoughts here are not to try and make it seem like, “I was right the whole time!”, but more piecing through recent developments.

ARMS is unique compared to other upgrade candidates. It’s a Switch title they are clearly trying to make another push for (clearly from the free trial they’re offering for it), and it’s a new IP that has had a...rocky start. I guess I wouldn’t call it a “failure” or something like that, really I’d say it at least did decently. But it’s a game that’s just kinda...been there. It’s also good for Nintendo’s bottom line to push their own series in their success machine of Smash, which lends to the idea that this is a push to help ARMS out a bit.

When we look at each of the other upgrade candidates that folks focus on, each is unique themselves. Rex is the protagonist of the “newest” Xenoblade, but now Shulk is back in the spotlight. Isaac, while he came back from the graveyard as an AT, is from a series that hasn’t had a new game for quite some time. This is similar to Advance Wars. Waluigi has the power of the meme economy on his side, so I could see him making a hypothetical jump.

Each character is different. While upgrades may potentially happen (I think Spring Man will be in there, so I think it’ll be an upgrade), they happen for different reasons. To say that “Spring Man got upgraded, so this is good for Isaac” isn’t necessarily true. Each pick is different.

But again, this is why my whole thing with “broad strokes” of theory/speculation don’t work like we think they do. An upgrade happening DOES at least suggest there’s a chance of it happening again, but it comes down to an individual level, I would think, to specify who would be upgraded.

Does that make more sense? Hope it doesn’t seem like word salad.

 

[Lamperouge]

Oh god if we get Spring Man promoted but not Alucard, who almost became playable, I will personally have The Big Sad

Alucard is getting the shaft so Miriam Bloodstained can get in.

 

[Megadoomer]

Good morning!

So how is everyone still with the announcement of the new fighter?

Me? I think its great ARMS is getting an rep. Feels like a game that should of had one for base. My bets are still on Minmin.

I'm going to try out that free trial of ARMS today to get an idea of what an ARMS character would be like - I've only played a demo for a few minutes before, so I don't know much about the game.

I'm fully expecting that, no matter which character gets in, there's going to be a scene in their trailer where they outrange the Belmonts' whips or Byleth's spear, because that seems to be a running gag at this point. (I can't recall which one has longer range)

 

[Michael the Spikester]

How many 1st parties do you guys see in this Pass including the ARMS character? I'm thinking 2 or 3 with the rest being 3rd party. Expecting it to be a mix of both.

 

[Schnee117]

Alucard is getting the shaft so Miriam Bloodstained can get in.

I see this as an absolute win

 

[Normanz]

Good morning!

So how is everyone still with the announcement of the new fighter?

Me? I think its great ARMS is getting an rep. Feels like a game that should of had one for base. My bets are still on Minmin.

I agree that this probably shouldve been for the base game, it just doesnt feel quite right as a dlc.
As for the characters, best case scenario is that they could somehow fit as many characters into one fighter. like spring man, ribbon girl, min min and some others have pretty much the same build and could probably fit as alternate costumes. but some other characters are chonky as hell (look at master mummy, hes ****in enormous) and definitely not fit as an alternate costume.

So unfortunately, the dream of all of the characters to join is most likely impossible, but i really hope sakurai could atleast get as many as he could.

 

[PK-remling Fire]

the only reason why I'd want Springman in over more interesting characters like Coyle, Twintelle, or Min Min is that he would put my boy Alucard back on the table.

How many 1st parties do you guys see in this Pass including the ARMS character? I'm thinking 2 or 3 with the rest being 3rd party. Expecting it to be a mix of both.

I think three is a solid guess. I'm still expecting another Pokemon rep to advertise the SwSh DLC

 

[chocolatejr9]

How many 1st parties do you guys see in this Pass including the ARMS character? I'm thinking 2 or 3 with the rest being 3rd party. Expecting it to be a mix of both.

Two or three is a safe bet, in my opinion. Then again, this is Nintendo we're talking about. They don't play by their own rules...

 

[Rie Sonomura]

How many 1st parties do you guys see in this Pass including the ARMS character? I'm thinking 2 or 3 with the rest being 3rd party. Expecting it to be a mix of both.

3 first parties and 3 third parties for a perfect balance. If this pass bundles four echoes with four to be determined fighters (6 spots + the four WoL slots that would otherwise be unfilled after the pass is done) I expect two first party echoes and two third party echoes, again only of characters in this particular pass as they didn’t shoot down Echoes for V2, only V1.

i also expect at least one Xenoblade character that ISN’T Rex, as I’m not expecting Spring Man to be the ARMS rep either on grounds of the latter being an assist. My moneys on Min Min and/or Ninjara for ARMS and Elma and/or Fiora for Xenoblade

 

[Michael the Spikester]

the only reason why I'd want Springman in over more interesting characters like Coyle, Twintelle, or Min Min is that he would put my boy Alucard back on the table.

Chances are Waluigi, Isaac or such would come before Alucard.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Alucard is getting the shaft so Miriam Bloodstained can get in.

Alu-who **** outta here give me the girl with tattoos from Spain

 

[Michael the Spikester]

If 3 is the case for 1st parties my predictions are Minmin, Cinderace (Seems to be the most likely at this point) and an BotW2 character/Rex & Pyra.

 

[RileyXY1]

If 3 is the case for 1st parties my predictions are Minmin, Cinderace (Seems to be the most likely at this point) and an BotW2 character/Rex & Pyra.

A Gen 8 Pokemon is out because of a DLC Spirit Event.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Unpopular opinion but I don’t count Spring Man or Ribbon Girl to be the faces of ARMS. Sure they’re on the cover but when ARMS first released it was pretty much in beta, only rolling out more characters with updates. Way I see it, if ARMS 2 happens Min Min will be the mascot as she won the final Party Crash Bash (like Splatfests but for ARMS)

 

[Michael the Spikester]

A Gen 8 Pokemon is out because of a DLC Spirit Event.

Poop I forgot about that. In that case Minmin, Rex and an BotW2 character.

Unpopular opinion but I don’t count Spring Man or Ribbon Girl to be the faces of ARMS. Sure they’re on the cover but when ARMS first released it was pretty much in beta, only rolling out more characters with updates. Way I see it, if ARMS 2 happens Min Min will be the mascot as she won the final Party Crash Bash (like Splatfests but for ARMS)

ARMS also seems like one of those franchises where there is no mascot, face, icon or protagonist.

 

[RileyXY1]

Poop I forgot about that. In that case Minmin, Rex and an BotW2 character.

In terms of Xenoblade reps, I think that we are more likely to get a character from the first game because of the Definitive Edition coming out later this year. Also, BOTW2 might not even come out in the period of Smash DLC speculation.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

In terms of Xenoblade reps, I think that we are more likely to get a character from the first game because of the Definitive Edition coming out later this year. Also, BOTW2 might not even come out in the period of Smash DLC speculation.

Well reason I say Rex is given how much Sakurai wanted to add him so given the opportunity now I could see him doing that given how passionate he is of XenoBlade 2.

As much as I'd prefer Elma. Still pulling out for her.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

In terms of Xenoblade reps, I think that we are more likely to get a character from the first game because of the Definitive Edition coming out later this year. Also, BOTW2 might not even come out in the period of Smash DLC speculation.

If Xenoblade X Definitive Edition is announced sometime after XCDE’s release I’d put Elma or an X character in the running too

 

[RileyXY1]

Well reason I say Rex is given how much Sakurai wanted to add him so given the opportunity now I could see him doing that given how passionate he is of XenoBlade 2.

As much as I'd prefer Elma. Still pulling out for her.

He might get vetoed by Nintendo and forced to add in a character from the original Xenoblade Chronicles to shill the Definitive Edition. Sakurai did want to have someone else represent 3 Houses but was forced to add Byleth.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Whereas 1st parties are easy to guess the third parties I find to be more unpredictable although the only one I'm very confident in is on Crash.

 

[RileyXY1]

Whereas 1st parties are easy to guess the third parties I find to be more unpredictable although the only one I'm very confident in is on Crash.

Even he might not get in, especially considering that Activision might not be willing to add one of their characters into Smash.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

He might get vetoed by Nintendo and forced to add in a character from the original Xenoblade Chronicles to shill the Definitive Edition. Sakurai did want to have someone else represent 3 Houses but was forced to add Byleth.

True. That's a fair point.

If that's the case who do you think the Xenoblade character would be?

Even he might not get in, especially considering that Activision might not be willing to add one of their characters into Smash.

I thought Nintendo and Activision were on good terms last I recalled?

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Can someone explain to me why min min is so popular?

She's cute, and her design is fun.

 

[RileyXY1]

True. That's a fair point.

If that's the case who do you think the Xenoblade character would be?

I thought Nintendo and Activision were on good terms last I recalled?

But, that doesn't translate into whether or not they want to add their characters into Smash. There's also the language barrier, as Activision is an American company.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

He might get vetoed by Nintendo and forced to add in a character from the original Xenoblade Chronicles to shill the Definitive Edition. Sakurai did want to have someone else represent 3 Houses but was forced to add Byleth.

This

remember Nintendo is in charge of the DLC and Sakurai merely approves or vetoes their decisions. It’s probably why Sakurai had to make Rex a costume - he wanted Rex but Nintendo most likely has a different Xenoblade rep in mind. For ARMS, I still say Min Min and maybe Nintendo told Sakurai, “hey, make Spring Man an assist and Ribbon Girl a costume. Trust us, we got someone WAY cooler in store for a playable ARMS rep”

It’s obviously different for third parties. Either Sakurai approaches the third party and they give consent or veto; or the other way around (third party approaches Sakurai)

 

[Michael the Spikester]

If Minmin is the character. I wonder what's gonna come to her Spirit? Will the update remove it from the game perhaps or simply replace it with an different character?

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

When are we going to realize that not every new game is going to get a playable character to advertise it? We’ve been over this many times.

You know who advertises Xenoblade really great? Shulk. He’s in the game already.

Trying to cram other characters into these “advertising” roles doesn’t work. They wouldn’t add Ghirahim as an upgrade or something to advertise Breath of the Wild 2. This is like saying adding Blaziken to advertise Sword and Shield makes sense.

 

[MrElectroG64]

I see the logic, but I don’t actually think that’s reliable.

Again, as a disclaimer, I’ve never really been “anti-upgrade”, just thought they were unlikely. So my thoughts here are not to try and make it seem like, “I was right the whole time!”, but more piecing through recent developments.

ARMS is unique compared to other upgrade candidates. It’s a Switch title they are clearly trying to make another push for (clearly from the free trial they’re offering for it), and it’s a new IP that has had a...rocky start. I guess I wouldn’t call it a “failure” or something like that, really I’d say it at least did decently. But it’s a game that’s just kinda...been there. It’s also good for Nintendo’s bottom line to push their own series in their success machine of Smash, which lends to the idea that this is a push to help ARMS out a bit.

When we look at each of the other upgrade candidates that folks focus on, each is unique themselves. Rex is the protagonist of the “newest” Xenoblade, but now Shulk is back in the spotlight. Isaac, while he came back from the graveyard as an AT, is from a series that hasn’t had a new game for quite some time. This is similar to Advance Wars. Waluigi has the power of the meme economy on his side, so I could see him making a hypothetical jump.

Each character is different. While upgrades may potentially happen (I think Spring Man will be in there, so I think it’ll be an upgrade), they happen for different reasons. To say that “Spring Man got upgraded, so this is good for Isaac” isn’t necessarily true. Each pick is different.

But again, this is why my whole thing with “broad strokes” of theory/speculation don’t work like we think they do. An upgrade happening DOES at least suggest there’s a chance of it happening again, but it comes down to an individual level, I would think, to specify who would be upgraded.

Does that make more sense? Hope it doesn’t seem like word salad.

this is a really great point. It also brings up another big problem with rule debunking in the general discussion of Smash: Rules being abolished/debunked doesn’t mean every fighter after that will be a previously “thought to be disconfirmed” character.

this seems to always happen with rule debunkings, in that, like our most recent case of the possibility of the assist trophy rule dying, a lot of people suddenly think every single previously AT’d character now has a major chance of getting in, which then feeds into people’s speculation and eventual disappointment when someone they weren’t hoping for gets in.

The bottom line is: Just because a rule gets debunked does not mean your favorite previously thought to be deconfirmed character is now likely. I don’t mean to sound condescending or mean, but it’s just a simple fact that people ignore very single time something big happens.

An example:
Rule/Rules: “Echo fighters cannot have differing weight, speed, etc stats from their base fighter” “Echo fighters cannot have differing moves that aren’t specials” and “Echoes cannot have entirely new moves, they must ALL be existing ones from their base fighter or from another existing fighter on the roster.”
How they were Broken: Ken comes along and knocks down ALL of those rules at once. Echoes can now be Dr. Mario-tier clones (a character that was previously used as an example of what echoes COULDN’T be, funnily enough).

echoes are saved right? We can now have more echoes with new moves, opening the floodgates to whole new possibilities and characters that we previously thought to be disconfirmed, right? Wrong. Sakurai then goes to say that he will no longer be adding echo fighters to the game, some few months after Ken’s reveal. So what I’m trying to say here is we should temper our expectations, don’t automatically think previously AT’d characters are now likely, because Sakurai is known for only adding one character from a broken rule, only to never touch on it again, (because the preciously mentioned example isn’t the only one like it).

Oh god if we get Spring Man promoted but not Alucard, who almost became playable, I will personally have The Big Sad

That sounds like typical Sakurai right there. That’d be an Alph situation all over again.

 

[I.D.]

ARMS is unique compared to other upgrade candidates. It’s a Switch title they are clearly trying to make another push for (clearly from the free trial they’re offering for it), and it’s a new IP that has had a...rocky start. I guess I wouldn’t call it a “failure” or something like that, really I’d say it at least did decently. But it’s a game that’s just kinda...been there. It’s also good for Nintendo’s bottom line to push their own series in their success machine of Smash, which lends to the idea that this is a push to help ARMS out a bit.

I disagree. Already gave my thoughts on this but I believe the free trial is meant to complement the new character, not the other way around. There is no way ARMS is going to get any significant boost in sales from this Smash cross-promotion at this point in time. The business angle only makes sense to me if

1. New ARMS is coming out soon, really soon, like, this year soon. There is no indication of this.

2. Some sort of new wave of paid DLC is coming for ARMS. More plausible but also less profitable, considering only a percentage of people who buy the base game goes on to buy DLC, I imagine this percentage will be dramatically smaller for a 3 year old game that hasn't received DLC content for quite a while.

I stick to the most simple explanation in this case: Nintendo thought the game was successful enough for a character in Smash.

I also wouldn't call ARMS a rocky start. You want a rocky start just look at Xenoblade, now that was a good ****storm.

 

[Lamperouge]

I see this as an absolute win

A soul for a soul.

 

[3BitSaurus]

My other thing is, ARMS is one of the few series where it can absolutely shift and change because the foundation hasn't necessarily be set, and specifically it has extremely popular female characters of color that people adore and prefer over the main character. There's a ton of series where the main or lead character that makes the most sense to include is male and has been that way for years. It just seems like a huge missed opportunity to not go for one of those characters like Min Min or Twintelle because the only argument Spring Man seems to have is that he's the face that Nintendo originally intended to market, but he's been pushed further away in favor of more popular options since then.

ARMS doesn't have to commit to Spring Man moving forward and I honestly think they should be willing to change it up in favor of more popular options. From everything I've seen, Spring Man's popularity seems more focused in the Smash community than the actual ARMS community at this point.

I think there's a fundamental problem with that idea: basic gameplay.

As a general rule in most fighting games, the main character is generally a character that is relatively acessible, has either no gimmick or a relatively simple one and serves to introduce new players to the basic mechanics of the game. People may prefer Chun-Li, but few would argue that Ryu serves this purpose better than her in terms of gameplay.

Most fighting games aren't like League of Legends or other MOBAs, with the focus distributed among a dozen or so characters. This is yet another reason why changing protagonists in fighting games is easier said than done.

This "simplicity of design" and a gameplay that reflects the bare mechanics of ARMS is something that neither Minmin or Twintelle have imo, despite their popularity. So making them the main characters doesn't make much sense to me.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Also, imagine spoiling the first Assist Trophy upgrade in game by having generically announced ARMS months in advance. You can do so much with changing up Assist Trophies into a playable fighter if it ever does come to that... but this would, once again, be the most anti-climactic way to include an Assist Trophy upgrade I feel like.

I dunno, just none of this situation feels right for Spring Man to get the upgrade here. The way they announced it just doesn't sit right with me to just end up being Spring Man down the line.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

I don't know if this was mentioned already, but I feel like its really important to note that the Assist Trophy "rule" isn't quite abolished yet. There is a very high likelihood that Springman is the (base)character for the ARMS rep, meaning its also very likely that Springtron could easily replace the Springman assist when he's being used. Because of this, this could be Sakurai's way of bypassing the "rule" or at least altering it in a way that still keeps it alive.

The rule is likely abolished completely, but I wouldn't count on it still, as Sakurai himself IS the one who made that rule to begin with, if the Smash 4 Waluigi twitter post is anything to go by.

What twitter post?

I see the logic, but I don’t actually think that’s reliable.

Again, as a disclaimer, I’ve never really been “anti-upgrade”, just thought they were unlikely. So my thoughts here are not to try and make it seem like, “I was right the whole time!”, but more piecing through recent developments.

ARMS is unique compared to other upgrade candidates. It’s a Switch title they are clearly trying to make another push for (clearly from the free trial they’re offering for it), and it’s a new IP that has had a...rocky start. I guess I wouldn’t call it a “failure” or something like that, really I’d say it at least did decently. But it’s a game that’s just kinda...been there. It’s also good for Nintendo’s bottom line to push their own series in their success machine of Smash, which lends to the idea that this is a push to help ARMS out a bit.

When we look at each of the other upgrade candidates that folks focus on, each is unique themselves. Rex is the protagonist of the “newest” Xenoblade, but now Shulk is back in the spotlight. Isaac, while he came back from the graveyard as an AT, is from a series that hasn’t had a new game for quite some time. This is similar to Advance Wars. Waluigi has the power of the meme economy on his side, so I could see him making a hypothetical jump.

Each character is different. While upgrades may potentially happen (I think Spring Man will be in there, so I think it’ll be an upgrade), they happen for different reasons. To say that “Spring Man got upgraded, so this is good for Isaac” isn’t necessarily true. Each pick is different.

But again, this is why my whole thing with “broad strokes” of theory/speculation don’t work like we think they do. An upgrade happening DOES at least suggest there’s a chance of it happening again, but it comes down to an individual level, I would think, to specify who would be upgraded.

Does that make more sense? Hope it doesn’t seem like word salad.

Assist Trophy, Mii costume, and Spirit status never ruled out characters getting added. As for looking at upgrades individually, that's true regardless of whther or not Spring Man gets upgraded.

A Gen 8 Pokemon is out because of a DLC Spirit Event.

That doesn't rule them out. Besides, there are a lot of Pokémon that weren't in that event, including Cinderace.

He might get vetoed by Nintendo and forced to add in a character from the original Xenoblade Chronicles to shill the Definitive Edition. Sakurai did want to have someone else represent 3 Houses but was forced to add Byleth.

Source?

 

[Schnee117]

A soul for a soul.

View attachment 267318

The hardest choices require the strongest wills