Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Rie Sonomura]

this is a really great point. It also brings up another big problem with rule debunking in the general discussion of Smash: Rules being abolished/debunked doesn’t mean every fighter after that will be a previously “thought to be disconfirmed” character.

this seems to always happen with rule debunkings, in that, like our most recent case of the possibility of the assist trophy rule dying, a lot of people now think every single previously AT’d character now has a major chance of getting in, which then feeds into people’s speculation and eventual disappointment when someone they weren’t hoping for gets in.

The bottom line is: Just because a rule gets debunked does not mean your favorite previously thought to be deconfirmed character is now likely. I don’t mean to sound condescending or mean, but it’s just a simple fact that people ignore very single time something big happens.

An example:
Rule/Rules: “Echo fighters cannot have differing weight, speed, etc stats from their base fighter” “Echo fighters cannot have differing moves that aren’t specials” and “Echoes cannot have entirely new moves, they must ALL be existing ones from their base fighter or from another existing fighter on the roster.”
How they were Broken: Ken comes along and knocks down ALL of those rules at once. Echoes can now be Dr. Mario-tier clones (a character that was previously used as an example of what echoes COULDN’T be, funnily enough).

echoes are saved right? We can now have more echoes with new moves, opening the floodgates to whole new possibilities and characters that we previously thought to be disconfirmed, right? Wrong. Sakurai then goes to say that he will no longer be adding echo fighters to the game, some few months after Ken’s reveal. So what I’m trying to say here is we should temper our expectations, don’t automatically think previously AT’d characters are now likely, because Sakurai is known for only adding one character from a broken rule, only to never touch on it again, (because the preciously mentioned example isn’t the only one like it).



That sounds like typical Sakurai right there. That’d be an Alph situation all over again.

Where did he say he wouldn’t add any more echoes period? Last I checked it was in the November 1, 2018 direct that he said pretty much verbatim, “there will be no echoes in this pass.” and since it was believed at first that FPV1 would be the only pass, none of that can apply to FPV2 as FPV2 was greenlit after V1’s success.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Another thing in Minmin's favor is being the most popular character based on the Final Party Crash or whatever it was called. Just like Isabelle is and supposedly why she was chosen over Tom Nook.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Also, imagine spoiling the first Assist Trophy upgrade in game by having generically announced ARMS months in advance. You can do so much with changing up Assist Trophies into a playable fighter if it ever does come to that... but this would, once again, be the most anti-climactic way to include an Assist Trophy upgrade I feel like.

I dunno, just none of this situation feels right for Spring Man to get the upgrade here. The way they announced it just doesn't sit right with me to just end up being Spring Man down the line.

It's already the most anticlimactic reveal ever tbh.

A soul for a soul.

View attachment 267318

Hold up, souls? YOU GUYS SOMA CRUZ AS THE FIRST SPIRIT UPGRADE CONFIRMED

 

[Trevenant]

He might get vetoed by Nintendo and forced to add in a character from the original Xenoblade Chronicles to shill the Definitive Edition. Sakurai did want to have someone else represent 3 Houses but was forced to add Byleth.

No I don’t think he ever actually did. I’m fairly certain that was a mistranslation. And making a claim like that no matter how false should at least have a source provided with it so you don’t look like you are intentionally making it up or the like

 

[Will]

Cinderace (Seems to be the most likely at this point)

Gross, at this point Charizard is the next Marth. "Another fire starter?"

 

[Cosmic77]

Here's what I have to say about the odds of a Xenoblade character.

• A XC2 character seems less ridiculous considering how ARMS is getting a character exactly three years after its release.
• I don't think the Definitive Edition is getting any content in Smash. As far as I can remember, the most a remake has ever gotten is a stage (Oot3D)
• Should we get a new Xenoblade character, it'll probably be someone from XC2. The orginal game already has plenty of content, and XCX is easily the least relevant of the three.
• I'm not saying a new Xenoblade character is a lock just because of ARMS. The latter didn't have a character on the roster, so implementing a new character is a lot more impactful for ARMS then it would be for Xenoblade.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Gross, at this point Charizard is the next Marth. "Another fire starter?"

Better then another anime swordsman right?

 

[MrElectroG64]

Where did he say he wouldn’t add any more echoes period? Last I checked it was in the November 1, 2018 direct that he said pretty much verbatim, “there will be no echoes in this pass.” and since it was believed at first that FPV1 would be the only pass, none of that can apply to FPV2 as FPV2 was greenlit after V1’s success.

Admittedly he hasn’t said anything for this second pass, but that doesn’t quite change the fact that we didn’t get any more echoes after ken (so far). My point here wasn’t about the fact that sakurai said there wouldn’t be more, that was more circumstance. My point was that after the “floodgates were opened,” we ended up not getting any more of those characters, thus meaning that we shouldn’t get our hopes up for previously disconfirmed AT characters, as there’s a very high likelihood that we won’t get anymore after springman, assuming it is even springman at all in the first place, which means the AT rule may not even be broken at all for all we know.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

FP7 is Jenna Coleman to rep Xenoblade. Not her character Melia, just Jenna Coleman herself as a character. The entirety of the UK would buy her

 

[Will]

Better then another anime swordsman right?

Actually no, I'd rather take Rex than Fire Starter #3

 

[TheCJBrine]

tfw an upgrade feels like it's likely going to happen, but people feel the need to "temper expectations" as if you're going to rage because you're somehow not aware that doesn't mean more will happen (it at least stops people from constantly shoving "it can't happen" down our throats when a character is brought up in some places, though I guess they'll just keep finding ways to gatekeep) or as if the people who would rage are suddenly not going to.

As if these things were real rules to begin with...it feels like policing speculation. Let people think it can happen, we don't need this every time Geno or Isaac or Waluigi or whoever is brought up, as if they and others are treated as 100% anyway -_-

 

[Pokechu]

Another thing in Minmin's favor is being the most popular character based on the Final Party Crash or whatever it was called. Just like Isabelle is and supposedly why she was chosen over Tom Nook.

I feel like people are taking the Party Crash Bash out of proportion. It was never a credible popularity poll because it was done over the course of six months IIRC and it’s still based on in-game winrates, and characters don’t need to have experts playing them in order to be popular. I don’t think the equivalent of an ARMS splatfest had a bearing on who will be a Smash DLC character. And Spring Man lost the first round yet many people are still considering him.

I think Twintelle is the most popular ARMS character and definitely a top pick for Smash. She exudes charisma and has the widest general appeal imo

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I feel like people are taking the Party Crash Bash out of proportion. It was never a credible popularity poll because it was done over the course of six months IIRC and it’s still based on in-game winrates, and characters don’t need to have experts playing them in order to be popular. I don’t think the equivalent of an ARMS splatfest had a bearing on who will be a Smash DLC character. And Spring Man lost the first round yet many people are still considering him.

I think Twintelle is the most popular ARMS character and definitely a top pick for Smash. She exudes charisma and has the widest general appeal imo

To be fair, they did go out of their way to do this wrt Min Min:

To celebrate Min Min's big win in the #ARMS #PartyCrashBash and the game's 2nd anniversary, the development team has created this special commemorative artwork of our champion! Thank you to all for supporting ARMS on #NintendoSwitch! pic.twitter.com/DaUg6i0ju6

— Nintendo Versus (@NintendoVS) June 27, 2019

 

[Will]

To be fair, they did go out of their way to do this wrt Min Min:

To celebrate Min Min's big win in the #ARMS #PartyCrashBash and the game's 2nd anniversary, the development team has created this special commemorative artwork of our champion! Thank you to all for supporting ARMS on #NintendoSwitch! pic.twitter.com/DaUg6i0ju6

— Nintendo Versus (@NintendoVS) June 27, 2019

That's implying they wouldn't have done it if Min Min didn't win.

 

[Cosmic77]

The Party Crash isn't a reliable source, considering how the winner was chosen based off of how many wins they got.

I can speak from the experience I've gotten from playing multiple Splatfests. If all of the younger players go for one character, then they're likely holding them back and making it easier for the opposing side to win. Anyone remember Team Mayo's miraculous win against Team Ketchup? Team Ketchup had 73% of the vote and still lost.

 

[Lamperouge]

FP7 is Jenna Coleman to rep Xenoblade. Not her character Melia, just Jenna Coleman herself as a character. The entirety of the UK would buy her

Speaking of Jenna, I find it pretty sus that we couldn't hear Melia speak during the Future Connected bit. It'd suck ass if they changed her actress at the very end.

 

[Pokechu]

To be fair, they did go out of their way to do this wrt Min Min:

To celebrate Min Min's big win in the #ARMS #PartyCrashBash and the game's 2nd anniversary, the development team has created this special commemorative artwork of our champion! Thank you to all for supporting ARMS on #NintendoSwitch! pic.twitter.com/DaUg6i0ju6

— Nintendo Versus (@NintendoVS) June 27, 2019

I’d be surprised if they didn’t salute the winner in some way! They’re the ones who made the 6-month tourney after all, and the winner is the one who won it! LOL

I think it’s clear that regardless of who won, they would have commemorated them. Mechanica made it to the semifinals but I’ve seen very little requests for her in Smash tbh

 

[Miifighters4Smash5]

Here's what I have to say about the odds of a Xenoblade character.

• A XC2 character seems less ridiculous considering how ARMS is getting a character exactly three years after its release.
• I don't think the Definitive Edition is getting any content in Smash. As far as I can remember, the most a remake has ever gotten is a stage (Oot3D)
• Should we get a new Xenoblade character, it'll probably be someone from XC2. The orginal game already has plenty of content, and XCX is easily the least relevant of the three.
• I'm not saying a new Xenoblade character is a lock just because of ARMS. The latter didn't have a character on the roster, so implementing a new character is a lot more impactful for ARMS then it would be for Xenoblade.

The Only new Xenoblade Character I could see getting added; is Malos from Xenoblade Chronicles 2; As A Villainous Echo Fighter of Shulk; Since He, like Shulk; has access to Monado Arts!!

 

[7NATOR]

So I Know you guys are talking about who the ARMS Character is, but is anyone wondering who could be apart of ARMS Mii Costume Pack? Mii Costumes are important part of Speculation as well. Personally I Predict Rayman

 

[Rie Sonomura]

So I Know you guys are talking about who the ARMS Character is, but is anyone wondering who could be apart of ARMS Mii Costume Pack? Mii Costumes are important part of Speculation as well. Personally I Predict Rayman

PreMiium Monokuma Brawler with Danganronpa Medley as a song. CALLING IT NOW.

 

[MagnesD3]

Can someone explain to me why min min is so popular?

Yeah she looks generic as hell, I’m pretty sure it’s because ramen and she’s a small cute girl :S maybe her gameplay is cool idk. (Twintelle has a much more interesting design, yeah some like her for tha behind but she’s legit the best looking character design I’ve seen from the game)

 

[Miifighters4Smash5]

So I Know you guys are talking about who the ARMS Character is, but is anyone wondering who could be apart of ARMS Mii Costume Pack? Mii Costumes are important part of Speculation as well. Personally I Predict Rayman

IDK; Springtron Mii Brawler Costume?

 

[Will]

The Only new Xenoblade Character I could see getting added; is Malos from Xenoblade Chronicles 2; As A Villainous Echo Fighter of Shulk; Since He, like Shulk; has access to Monado Arts!!

imagine making full-fledged DLC and then you just make him a clone

 

[MagnesD3]

Another thing in Minmin's favor is being the most popular character based on the Final Party Crash or whatever it was called. Just like Isabelle is and supposedly why she was chosen over Tom Nook.

God I still hate Isabelle so much for that, “oh she’s so cute I wanna play her” bleck, Tom Nook is baller and owns your soul, he’s the 1st character that comes to mind with AC and him not making it first (even over villager) is still dumb.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I disagree. Already gave my thoughts on this but I believe the free trial is meant to complement the new character, not the other way around. There is no way ARMS is going to get any significant boost in sales from this Smash cross-promotion at this point in time. The business angle only makes sense to me if

1. New ARMS is coming out soon, really soon, like, this year soon. There is no indication of this.

2. Some sort of new wave of paid DLC is coming for ARMS. More plausible but also less profitable, considering only a percentage of people who buy the base game goes on to buy DLC, I imagine this percentage will be dramatically smaller for a 3 year old game that hasn't received DLC content for quite a while.

I stick to the most simple explanation in this case: Nintendo thought the game was successful enough for a character in Smash.

I also wouldn't call ARMS a rocky start. You want a rocky start just look at Xenoblade, now that was a good ****storm.

I’d argue it may be a combination of both lines of thinking. DLC is generated for one major reason, and that’s sales and making money. This isn’t some metric of “Ah yes, this series DESERVES to be in Smash”. These are brands and IP that can grow from increased exposure, not this “hall of gaming fame” that Smash fans specifically care about.

It may not be fair to call ARMS a failure. But it’s also not this standout explosive game that sold Switch consoles off of shelves either. I think the reality is somewhere in the middle.

I think sales are one thing, but player retention in ARMS? Yeah, that cratered majorly. The online community is not nearly as large as it was at launch, and you have to admit it’s not among the most talked about Switch titles. Reinvigorating it with new exposure in their much larger fighting title can do nothing but help it.

 

[Staarih]

So I Know you guys are talking about who the ARMS Character is, but is anyone wondering who could be apart of ARMS Mii Costume Pack? Mii Costumes are important part of Speculation as well. Personally I Predict Rayman

More of the missing Smash 4 costumes. Maybe Heihachi, being another fighting game character (not that the Mii packs necessarily follow a theme). If more ARMS costumes are added, then Biff and Hedlok hats/masks/headpieces.
And of course some indie costume + music track.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I feel like people are taking the Party Crash Bash out of proportion. It was never a credible popularity poll because it was done over the course of six months IIRC and it’s still based on in-game winrates, and characters don’t need to have experts playing them in order to be popular. I don’t think the equivalent of an ARMS splatfest had a bearing on who will be a Smash DLC character. And Spring Man lost the first round yet many people are still considering him.

I think Twintelle is the most popular ARMS character and definitely a top pick for Smash. She exudes charisma and has the widest general appeal imo

Marina often lost a lot of Splatfest battles I believe.

God I still hate Isabelle so much for that, “oh she’s so cute I wanna play her” bleck, Tom Nook is baller and owns your soul, he’s the 1st character that comes to mind with AC and him not making it first (even over villager) is still dumb.

Hey, you just made her upset.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

More of the missing Smash 4 costumes. Maybe Heihachi, being another fighting game character (not that the Mii packs necessarily follow a theme). If more ARMS costumes are added, then Biff and Hedlok hats/masks/headpieces.
And of course some indie costume + music track.

I think they’d save Heihachi/Lloyd/Gil for a new Namco character. And tbh I don’t want PreMiium costumes with music to be limited to Indie Gunners. Unless it’s a Gunvolt/Copen costume but let non-indies/Brawlers/Swordfighters have this too

Marina often lost a lot of Splatfest battles I believe.

Hey, you just made her upset.

Nah she totally won more than Pearl if you count EU and JP Splatfests too. Just like Callie won more than Marie, but both Marie and Pearl won the final ones

 

[MagnesD3]

Marina often lost a lot of Splatfest battles I believe.

Hey, you just made her upset.

Good I’m glad she’s sad. If I could tell her to be more interesting than just being cute I would lol.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

God I still hate Isabelle so much for that, “oh she’s so cute I wanna play her” bleck, Tom Nook is baller and owns your soul, he’s the 1st character that comes to mind with AC and him not making it first (even over villager) is still dumb.

This is bull**** Tom Nook isn't a greedy landlord at all, all landleeches should use Tom Nook as an example of how to be gor their tenants

Speaking of Jenna, I find it pretty sus that we couldn't hear Melia speak during the Future Connected bit. It'd suck ass if they changed her actress at the very end.

we heard her talk in the trailer but Coleman's gotten HUGE since she statted in Dr. Who, Nintendo's too cheap to use union actors so they're faaaaar too cheap to get Coleman back, though her being one of the biggest stars of Britain now makes it understandable

 

[Rie Sonomura]

This is bull**** Tom Nook isn't a greedy landlord at all, all landleeches should use Tom Nook as an example of how to be gor their tenants

we heard her talk in the trailer but Coleman's gotten HUGE since she statted in Dr. Who, Nintendo's too cheap to use union actors so they're faaaaar too cheap to get Coleman back, though her being one of the biggest stars of Britain now makes it understandable

So they’d have a sudden VO change like in Tales of Vesperia Definitive Edition for the new content?

 

[Cosmic77]

I'm not even sure they'd give us more ARMS Mii costumes since we already have Spring Man and Ribbon Girl. Plus, Byleth didn't come with a single FE Mii Costume, so obviously a relevant Mii costume isn't a requirement.

I think we might get one or two of the missing Mii Costumes from Smash 4 and another surprise indie character.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

tfw an upgrade feels like it's likely going to happen, but people feel the need to "temper expectations" as if you're going to rage because you're somehow not aware that doesn't mean more will happen (it at least stops people from constantly shoving "it can't happen" down our throats when a character is brought up in some places, though I guess they'll just keep finding ways to gatekeep) or as if the people who would rage are suddenly not going to.

As if these things were real rules to begin with...it feels like policing speculation. Let people think it can happen, we don't need this every time Geno or Isaac or Waluigi or whoever is brought up, as if they and others are treated as 100% anyway -_-

The thing is, there are folks that for the last 24 have been saying “this makes X more likely” when there’s nothing to specifically support that logic on an individual basis.

Here’s another thing to chew on. We all love Smash here obviously, but some folks seek to allow “evidence” or information to lead to the next characters. This is speculation. Others seek to lead the evidence to their personal favorite. This is not speculation, this is basically putting things together to make one character seem likely.

Now, it’s not any one person or group of people. But one is inherently more interesting than the other. I may be alone here, but I would find it more interesting if instead of, “Upgrades are more likely, meaning X/Y/Z can happen” folks said, “If additional upgrades happen, I think it would be X/Y/Z because of these reasons”, especially when those reasons are just “popularity”.

What we know of ARMS is that it wasn’t released in time for base roster, but we have it now. Is this something that could benefit Rex? Maybe, but what else makes Rex stand out? Those are the conversations I think would produce less “temper expectations” and more “Hey, I think you’re right!” or meaningful discussion.

At least, that’s my opinion.

 

[Louie G.]

Good I’m glad she’s sad. If I could tell her to be more interesting than just being cute I would lol.

Who hurt you?

 

[TheCJBrine]

The thing is, there are folks that for the last 24 have been saying “this makes X more likely” when there’s nothing to specifically support that logic on an individual basis.

Here’s another thing to chew on. We all love Smash here obviously, but some folks seek to allow “evidence” or information to lead to the next characters. This is speculation. Others seek to lead the evidence to their personal favorite. This is not speculation, this is basically putting things together to make one character seem likely.

Now, it’s not any one person or group of people. But one is inherently more interesting than the other. I may be alone here, but I would find it more interesting if instead of, “Upgrades are more likely, meaning X/Y/Z can happen” folks said, “If additional upgrades happen, I think it would be X/Y/Z because of these reasons”, especially when those reasons are just “popularity”.

What we know of ARMS is that it wasn’t released in time for base roster, but we have it now. Is this something that could benefit Rex? Maybe, but what else makes Rex stand out? Those are the conversations I think would produce less “temper expectations” and more “Hey, I think you’re right!” or meaningful discussion.

At least, that’s my opinion.

The reason why people say "this character happened, so X/Y/Z can happen" is because others say they absolutely can't happen, treating their "evidence" as 100% facts coming out of Sakurai's mouth. The former, however, just acknowledges the possibility of them happening, no one is treating them as 100% and everyone has their own reasons for believing a character has potential to happen.

I think your arguments are good because the ARMs promotion stuff makes sense and you never act like things are perfectly set in stone, but every time someone says "temper your expectations" when certain characters are brought up, even if they're not being treated as "definitely happening," it gets annoying quick, because it feels like people are trying to shut others down even if they'd only feel regular disappointment at most, while the people who would throw a huge fit are probably going to anyway. It's like when people kept hopping into the Geno thread to say "temper your expectations/he may not happen dudes" as if we weren't aware (though to be fair, a few users in there were more on the certain, loud side).

 

[Cutie Gwen]

So they’d have a sudden VO change like in Tales of Vesperia Definitive Edition for the new content?

It's either that, spend a ****ton of money or get rid of Melia entirely

 

[MrElectroG64]

tfw an upgrade feels like it's likely going to happen, but people feel the need to "temper expectations" as if you're going to rage because you're somehow not aware that doesn't mean more will happen (it at least stops people from constantly shoving "it can't happen" down our throats when a character is brought up in some places, though I guess they'll just keep finding ways to gatekeep) or as if the people who would rage are suddenly not going to.

As if these things were real rules to begin with...it feels like policing speculation. Let people think it can happen, we don't need this every time Geno or Isaac or Waluigi or whoever is brought up, as if they and others are treated as 100% anyway -_-

You underestimate how much people rage about things not happening in smash that they want to happen. Namely: Waluigi fans. They threw a temper tantrum once for him not getting into ultimate, imagine how angry they’ll get if he is denied a spot on the roster a SECOND time.

I’m not saying, nor have I ever stated in my posts previous, that people aren’t allowed to be hopeful for something to happen, as I’m also somewhat hopeful for AT’d characters to get a second chance. I’m only trying to warn people that it could very likely NOT happen, given the past.

 

[HansShotFirst20]

Others seek to lead the evidence to their personal favorite. This is not speculation, this is basically putting things together to make one character seem likely.

Saying "hmm I like x character, what evidence or reasoning is there that point to them being in smash?" fits the textbook definition of speculation just as much as "hmm look at this evidence and reasoning, which characters does it point to" does.

Cambridge online dictionary lists the definition of speculation as: "the activity of guessing possible answers to a question without having enough information to be certain". In one case, "what are x character's chances for smash, given evidence that points to them" is the question, and in the other case "which characters does this evidence point to" is the question.

Me saying "the next character is confirmed to be from ARMS. One of the possible characters this points to is Min-Min" is basically the same statement as "I like Min-Min, and the confirmation that the next character is from ARMS points to her possible inclusion", but by your logic, the latter wouldn't be speculation -- which is false.

 

[chocolatejr9]

PreMiium Monokuma Brawler with Danganronpa Medley as a song. CALLING IT NOW.

I'll take what I can get.

 

[TheCJBrine]

You underestimate how much people rage about things not happening in smash that they want to happen. Namely: Waluigi fans. They threw a temper tantrum once for him not getting into ultimate, imagine how angry they’ll get if he is denied a spot on the roster a SECOND time.

I’m not saying, nor have I ever stated in my posts previous, that people aren’t allowed to be hopeful for something to happen, as I’m also somewhat hopeful for AT’d characters to get a second chance. I’m only trying to warn people that it could very likely NOT happen, given the past.

I know some people get angry (though if I recall, a lot of Waluigi fans were fine), but they'd likely get angry anyway. I think most people would just feel some disappointment or be perfectly fine, or maybe just complain a little bit. We're all perfectly aware things may not happen; it just feels like, even if people are just saying things like "these characters could happen now," someone else shuts 'em down somewhat with statements everyone who would listen knows by now, especially since this stuff has been said multiple, multiple times in the past, and is said every time this discussion is brought up.