Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[SmashChu]

Here's what I have to say about the odds of a Xenoblade character.

• A XC2 character seems less ridiculous considering how ARMS is getting a character exactly three years after its release.
• I don't think the Definitive Edition is getting any content in Smash. As far as I can remember, the most a remake has ever gotten is a stage (Oot3D)
• Should we get a new Xenoblade character, it'll probably be someone from XC2. The orginal game already has plenty of content, and XCX is easily the least relevant of the three.
• I'm not saying a new Xenoblade character is a lock just because of ARMS. The latter didn't have a character on the roster, so implementing a new character is a lot more impactful for ARMS then it would be for Xenoblade.

I think a big reason it wont be someone from XCDE is because that game already has a stage in Smash as is its main character. Id say what helps Rex the most is his popularity which Sakurai was at least keen on (given the fact they specifically apologized for not including him which they didn't do for ARMS). It may not happen but seeing as FP1 had a character from an existing series it's not totally out of the question.

I feel like people are taking the Party Crash Bash out of proportion. It was never a credible popularity poll because it was done over the course of six months IIRC and it’s still based on in-game winrates, and characters don’t need to have experts playing them in order to be popular. I don’t think the equivalent of an ARMS splatfest had a bearing on who will be a Smash DLC character. And Spring Man lost the first round yet many people are still considering him.

I think Twintelle is the most popular ARMS character and definitely a top pick for Smash. She exudes charisma and has the widest general appeal imo

Reason people bring it up is these things have mattered. In Splatoon, the last Splatfest had a real impact on the story of the next title. The Party Crash was likely trying to ape it. Of course, it also helps that Min Min is the only character that doesn't use just her Arms, so it can be easy to add other attacks to her that are more than just stretchy arms.

Also, I'd argue Min Min is more popular. I think people overstate Twintell because Etika really liked her and Smash fans are most familiar with him. Not saying she isn't popular, just that Min Min is the bigger star.

 

[MrElectroG64]

I know some people get angry (though if I recall, a lot of Waluigi fans were fine), but they'd likely get angry anyway. I think most people would just feel some disappointment or be perfectly fine, or maybe just complain a little bit. We're all perfectly aware things may not happen; it just feels like, even if people are just saying things like "these characters could happen now," someone else shuts 'em down somewhat with statements everyone who would listen knows by now, especially since this stuff has been said multiple, multiple times.

I understand where you’re coming from, but I ron’t think most people who say this come from any kind of bad intentions with it. At the very least, I don’t.

 

[Pinguino21v]

How many 1st parties do you guys see in this Pass including the ARMS character? I'm thinking 2 or 3 with the rest being 3rd party. Expecting it to be a mix of both.

Probably 3 or 4 IMO. I would have said 2 max, but the first spot being for ARMS leads me to think there are more first party than expected.

Of all of them, I think it will be limited to this list, in order of most likely to less likely (always IMO): Isaac (if Golden Sun Switch is indeed a thing), Xeno rep (Elma or Rex/Pyra), Waluigi, a BoTW2 rep, a Gen 8 Pokémon, one of the lesser known IP (including Isaac if GS Switch isn't a thing, Advance Wars, Rythm Heaven, Mach Rider).

Letting two spots for third parties, including, I believe, one for Steve. And hopefully Phoenix Wright.

The only upgrade I see happening is Shantae tbh. Her moveset goes perfectly with Smash.

I have low hope for Shantae or Rayman upgrade. And I'm not expecting any other western characters out of the three I already mentionned (Doomguy, Master Chief, etc.).

 

[Cosmic77]

When it comes to speculation, you can't control how others think. Maybe someone's logic doesn't make sense, or you're frustrated because it feels like they're jumping to conclusions. Honestly though, who's to say they aren't right? What proof can you provide that makes it undeniable that your thought process is correct and theirs is wrong?

There are a lot of opinions I disagree with here, but that's just part of speculation. I can try to convince people with a few good points that I have, but if they still believe that their opinion is right, that's just something I'll have to respect.

 

[DetectiveSS]

You underestimate how much people rage about things not happening in smash that they want to happen. Namely: Waluigi fans. They threw a temper tantrum once for him not getting into ultimate, imagine how angry they’ll get if he is denied a spot on the roster a SECOND time.

I’m not saying, nor have I ever stated in my posts previous, that people aren’t allowed to be hopeful for something to happen, as I’m also somewhat hopeful for AT’d characters to get a second chance. I’m only trying to warn people that it could very likely NOT happen, given the past.

You’re generalizing an entire fan base when in reality it was a very vocal minority, like it usually is when things like these happen. The bad things on the internet will always be the most noticeable even if there’s not a lot of it, making the stuff that isn’t that bad seem less so.

I’m quite certain everyone is aware this wouldn’t change the chances of certain characters. It just confirms that, if they want to, it’s very possible to make someone who is already an AT a fighter. That’s all people are looking for.

 

[DarthEnderX]

If there's gonna be ARMS 2, I want Lanky Kong as a guest character.

I want Little Mac with digital wireframe arms.

Methinks ARMS character was gonna be FP7, and FP6 is the character that got delayed due to Sakurai not being able to meet with their publisher.

Maybe an ARMS rep was going to be even later than FP7, and it's just the first in-house character they could use.

I also think this. I think ARMS was going to be later in the pass, and we were supposed to get a big 3P character first. But because of the virus, Sakurai had to switch over to one of the later Nintendo picks that he could get final approval on without having to have any meetings at other companies.

Which explains why they didn't have a full CGI trailer ready yet for when they were originally planning to announce the character.

A lot of y’all are still pushing this idea that an ARMS character/upgrade increases the odds of another upgrade? Still?

Doesn't really matter to me if it changes the odds or not. The point is that it kills that particular counterargument against character requests.

I know Kunio ain't getting in, but I can go back to pretending he might!

That's like saying Metroid being available on the Minis helped get Ridley in.

I dunno man...look at that sick SNES Classic Edition coverage! Arthur and Bill Rizer practically confirmed!

If it is Spring Man then I could see Nintendo acting like he is a surprise because most people would never expect for an Assist Trophy to be upgraded in the same game.

Maybe it's even part of his trailer, with his AT jar getting smashed on the ground!

 

[Idon]

The XCDE character is a Shulk that doesn't look super ugly when you look more closely at him:


also a shulk with a cooler moveset please

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

(same goes for Ms. Pac-Man with Pac-Man).

Unfortunately, Namco doesn't own Ms. PAC-MAN, so she doesn't appear in crossovers as much as she should...or anything for that matter.

I want Little Mac with digital wireframe arms.

I like this idea. I wonder how they'd explain it though. Would they make the ARMS ans PUNCH-OUT!!! series cannon to each other? Wait, would that make the Donkey Kong series cannon as well? That would also mean they're also cannon to the Super Mario series...

The XCDE character is a Shulk that doesn't look super ugly when you look more closely at him:

Spoiler: Image

View attachment 267345

also a shulk with a cooler moveset please

I always thought his face looked weird! Moveset-wise though I'm not sure what there is to improve; It already uses most of his notable Arts like Stream Edge, Air Slash, and Back Slash.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Saying "hmm I like x character, what evidence or reasoning is there that point to them being in smash?" fits the textbook definition of speculation just as much as "hmm look at this evidence and reasoning, which characters does it point to" does.

Cambridge online dictionary lists the definition of speculation as: "the activity of guessing possible answers to a question without having enough information to be certain". In one case, "what are x character's chances for smash, given evidence that points to them" is the question, and in the other case "which characters does this evidence point to" is the question.

Me saying "the next character is confirmed to be from ARMS. One of the possible characters this points to is Min-Min" is basically the same statement as "I like Min-Min, and the confirmation that the next character is from ARMS points to her possible inclusion", but by your logic, the latter wouldn't be speculation -- which is false.

Perhaps that was hasty.

What I will rectify is that, while everybody here clearly enjoys talking about Smash, some allow their speculation to strictly be based on proving/arguing why their most wanted, no matter the cost isn’t seen as unlikely. Does that sound better?

It’s clear to me at least that right now, folks are trying to find ways to argue their character of choice is in high probability of being added, when that simply isn’t the case or at least isn’t any reasonable evidence to support it.

Granted, I’m an English teacher. I don’t usually see arguments as strong if I don’t see the evidence or think it connects, so that’s at least my perspective of it.

 

[MrElectroG64]

To change the subject to something more positive: what/who do you guys think the ARMS character will be, exactly? By this I mean, how will one be implemented into the game (not gameplay-wise)?

of the few different ideas/options I can think of, it could be:
• A single ARMS character, no alts.
• multiple ARMS characters via alts, same moveset
• multiple ARMS characters via alts and echoes
• multiple ARMS characters where the alts ARE echoes

I may just be looking too far into this, which is something I just got done telling people not to do lol, but I feel like the way they revealed it was an arms rep might have something to do with just how one will be implemented, implying that it would be all or a lot of them somehow. The last idea I listed was kind of a stretch for sure, but something just crazy enough to live up to the weird way they were revealed yesterday. It wouldn’t exactly be impossible to do either, as something similar was done with Hero, in that he had multiple characters and had a bunch of different special moves, even if those two things weren’t exactly connected they way my idea implies.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

To change the subject to something more positive: what/who do you guys think the ARMS character will be, exactly? By this I mean, how will one be implemented into the game (not gameplay-wise)?

of the few different ideas/options I can think of, it could be:
• A single ARMS character, no alts.
• multiple ARMS characters via alts, same moveset
• multiple ARMS characters via alts and echoes
• multiple ARMS characters where the alts ARE echoes

I may just be looking too far into this, which is something I just got done telling people not to do lol, but I feel like the way they revealed it was an arms rep might have something to do with just how one will be implemented, implying that it would be all or a lot of them somehow. The last idea I listed was kind of a stretch for sure, but something just crazy enough to live up to the weird way they were revealed yesterday. It wouldn’t exactly be impossible to do either, as something similar was done with Hero, in that he had multiple characters and had a bunch of different special moves, even if those two things weren’t exactly connected they way my idea implies.

What do you mean by “where the alts ARE echoes”?

tbf I don’t think a character can have more than one echo.

 

[Tako Tuesday]

I think I'll drop out of speculation for some time. While an ARMS character coming is extremely hype for me, speculation is making things less fun.

At this point, I feel like Spring Man has to be in. Not including him but having another ARMS fighter playable like Min Min would feel wrong. What if we had playable Zero, but X was an Assist? Wouldn't that seem odd, to only pick the most popular one, but not the face of the brand? That's why I can't see us only getting someone like Min Min.

So that's what's bugging me. I want Spring Man, but I also want Min Min because she's my favorite character. I had an idea that they could pull a Hero on us, giving us 4 fighters in one, and now I don't know how I'd feel if they don't add more than one ARMS fighter.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I think I'll drop out of speculation for some time. While an ARMS character coming is extremely hype for me, speculation is making things less fun.

At this point, I feel like Spring Man has to be in. Not including him but having another ARMS fighter playable like Min Min would feel wrong. What if we had playable Zero, but X was an Assist? Wouldn't that seem odd, to only pick the most popular one, but not the face of the brand? That's why I can't see us only getting someone like Min Min.

So that's what's bugging me. I want Spring Man, but I also want Min Min because she's my favorite character. I had an idea that they could pull a Hero on us, giving us 4 fighters in one, and now I don't know how I'd feel if they don't add more than one ARMS fighter.

If it were Spring Man I feel they would had just revealed him already. Why those months of trying to surprise us which it seems they're trying to do only for it to be the obvious?

The way I see this is the Isabelle treatment. She's the most popular Animal Crossing character and so was obviously chosen over Tom Nook. The same I could see her given Minmin being the most popular ARMS character.

 

[osby]

If it were Spring Man I feel they would had just revealed him already. Why those months of trying to surprise us which it seems they're trying to do only for it to be the obvious?

The way I see this is the Isabelle treatment. She's the most popular Animal Crossing character and so was obviously chosen over Tom Nook. The same I could see her given Minmin being the most popular ARMS character.

I don't think this comparison works. Both Tom Nook and Isabelle are NPCs and we already had Villager in Smash.

Plus, it's still possible for them to add Spring Man and another character/characters.

 

[Tako Tuesday]

If it were Spring Man I feel they would had just revealed him already. Why those months of trying to surprise us which it seems they're trying to do only for it to be the obvious?

The way I see this is the Isabelle treatment. She's the most popular Animal Crossing character and so was obviously chosen over Tom Nook. The same I could see her given Minmin being the most popular ARMS character.

Thing is, we already had the protagonist of Animal Crossing, Villager, as a playable character. Isabelle was a secondary rep.

However, the protagonist of ARMS is Spring Man, who is not yet playable. It would be odd to only have Min Min, who isn't even the main character get in before the actual main character.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Thing is, we already had the protagonist of Animal Crossing, Villager, as a playable character. Isabelle was a secondary rep.

However, the protagonist of ARMS is Spring Man, who is not yet playable. It would be odd to only have Min Min, who isn't even the main character get in before the actual main character.

I mean we did get Robin & Lucina before Chrom...

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I still just find it odd Nintendo would keep it as an mystery for us only for it to be Spring Man which otherwise I feel they would had just revealed right away.

I mean we did get Robin & Lucina before Chrom...

Good point there. I wasn't around during the era of Sm4sh so I wouldn't had known that.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I think I'll drop out of speculation for some time. While an ARMS character coming is extremely hype for me, speculation is making things less fun.

I expect a lot of people will drop out 'til June since this'll be the ARMS cyclical argument thread until then.

 

[Cosmic77]

If Spring Man is the character, then I'm almost 100% positive they'd at least make Ribbon Girl as an alt. I hope they make even more characters as alts, but I'd be content with just those two.

The way I see this is the Isabelle treatment. She's the most popular Animal Crossing character and so was obviously chosen over Tom Nook. The same I could see her given Minmin being the most popular ARMS character.

The difference is that Nintendo wasted no time cashing in on Isabelle's popularity and essentially making her the mascot of Animal Crossing. Adding her over Tom Nook made sense.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

The difference is that Nintendo wasted no time on cashing in Isabelle's popularity and essentially making her the mascot of Animal Crossing. Adding her over Tom Nook made sense.

As Rie mentioned there's Robin and Lucina before Chrom.

 

[smashingDoug]

I'm putting my money on Twintelle as the arms reps. Just because she has actually arms to hold items with, Easy to code. Also shes a black female and it's 2020.

Or Ribbon Girl because Spring Man is an AT.

Ness using PSI he can't in his original game (which have been made canon since his first appearance), and Simon techniques that his descendant uses aren't the same thing as giving Spring Man abilities that don't match his theming. Even if you were to make it not jarring you'd still be homogenizing characters that play wildly different from each other.

Ness can use psi. He just can't use Fire, Thunder, Star storm, and maybe magnet. But he can use flash, teleport, rocking, (favourite thing) I think heal.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I mean we did get Robin & Lucina before Chrom...

Different situation.

Robin, Lucina and Chrom are all basically main characters of the game. Lucina was added because of ease of access to materials from Marth. Chrom has no such luck until Ultimate.

This doesn’t apply to the situation ARMS is currently in.

 

[Tako Tuesday]

I mean we did get Robin & Lucina before Chrom...

Robin is the main playable character in the game, though. It makes sense to include them first. Min Min is not the main character in ARMS in any way.

 

[MrElectroG64]

What do you mean by “where the alts ARE echoes”?

tbf I don’t think a character can have more than one echo.

I mean that each alternate costume is a different character that also has echo-like properties. I admit that its a bit of a longshot, but it's definitely still possible. There isn't a rule that states a character can have only one echo, but there also isn't anything stopping these alts from not being counted as echoes. They could all still be counted as alts of a singular fighter, but have some qualities of being an echo, such as a different move to compensate for their specific abilities, or something of the sort. They'd share an overall moveset, since all ARMS characters have the same moveset, but with one unique feature to switch things up, so the alt costumes of the base springman could all be the same way, using the same moveset, but with one unique feature indicative of their original ARMS versions. Its a bit of a rough idea, but there's a lot of potential there.

I think I'll drop out of speculation for some time. While an ARMS character coming is extremely hype for me, speculation is making things less fun.

At this point, I feel like Spring Man has to be in. Not including him but having another ARMS fighter playable like Min Min would feel wrong. What if we had playable Zero, but X was an Assist? Wouldn't that seem odd, to only pick the most popular one, but not the face of the brand? That's why I can't see us only getting someone like Min Min.

So that's what's bugging me. I want Spring Man, but I also want Min Min because she's my favorite character. I had an idea that they could pull a Hero on us, giving us 4 fighters in one, and now I don't know how I'd feel if they don't add more than one ARMS fighter.

I feel like having a hero situation is one of the most likely outcomes for the ARMS rep, personally. Have Springman, Ribbon Girl, Min Min and maybe one or more other characters that are similar enough to translate the moveset to, plus Springtron, who could either be one of Springman's palettes or an entire set of his own alts on the ARMS fighter.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Robin is the main playable character in the game, though. It makes sense to include them first. Min Min is not the main character in ARMS in any way.

More people on these forums saw Chrom as the MC though and Robin as mostly just an “avatar” or that they’re more important in the later half of the game

 

[Curious Villager]

I mean we did get Robin & Lucina before Chrom...

Pretty sure Chrom was still more popular than Robin, and the only reason he missed out was because there where already Marth and Ike he'd overlap with. Hence why they went with Robin instead.

There is no one like Spring Man in the roster currently that he'd overlap with. Unless you reaally want to stretch it with Little Mac or something...

 

[Opossum]

Different situation.

Robin, Lucina and Chrom are all basically main characters of the game. Lucina was added because of ease of access to materials from Marth. Chrom has no such luck until Ultimate.

This doesn’t apply to the situation ARMS is currently in.

I would absolutely argue that Lucina was a deuteragonist at best.

She doesn't even prompt a game over if she dies.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I would absolutely argue that Lucina was a deuteragonist at best.

She doesn't even prompt a game over if she dies.

You do get a game over if she dies in Future Past, I know that’s DLC but still

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Ness can use psi. He just can't use Fire, Thunder, Star storm, and maybe magnet. But he can use flash, teleport, rocking, (favourite thing) I think heal.

I'd be surprised if he couldn't use PSI magnet since all of the Earthbound protagonists are support based. It's also stated that Paula and Poo taught Ness the PSI and PK abilities in preparation for Super Smash Bros. Since the teams that worked on the two games are the same, it's safe to assume that these abilities are now cannon.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Like would Nintendo really just keep it an mystery for three month to surprise and hype fans just to have it be revealed to be the obvious? Otherwise what would had been the point of all of that? Why not just reveal him right away?

Which is why I have doubts over it being Spring Man.

 

[AntagonisticGalaxyCetacea]

Three horsemen of the Armspocalypse:

• The ARMS character will be a Hero situation!
• There's no way it would be Springman he's the most boring and obvious pick they could go with!
• The character is from ARMS 2!

If it were Spring Man I feel they would had just revealed him already. Why those months of trying to surprise us which it seems they're trying to do only for it to be the obvious?

The fact that they included all of the ARMS characters still makes it a surprise, because hypothetically Springman made it in over the other colorful cast members. This argumentative point against Springman is frankly getting tiresome because its pure bias. Nintendo and Sakurai don't care how obvious Springman is to the fanbase debating on internet forums, him and Ribbon Girl are the faces of ARMS thus is the biggest reason for his/their inclusion.

The same I could see her given Minmin being the most popular ARMS character.

The most popular based on what exactly? People have already mentioned the thing people have been using to justify her being added isnt exactly a popularity poll.

 

[Opossum]

You do get a game over if she dies in Future Past, I know that’s DLC but still

If we count specific DLC missions then even Forsyth counts as a main character when he's as much of a side character as someone can get.

Like dammit Forsyth I love you but you're not important at all.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Springman is to the fanbase debating on internet forums, him and Ribbon Girl are the faces of ARMS thus is the biggest reason for his/their inclusion.

Except don't all the ARMS characters have their own unique moves and special abilities? That's a problem I see having the Hero/Bowser Jr. treatment.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

If we count specific DLC missions then even Forsyth counts as a main character when he's as much of a side character as someone can get.

Like dammit Forsyth I love you but you're not important at all.

Can confirm.
Source: I've played the game almost twice over and have never even seen that name before.

 

[blackghost]

Eh not really
Min Min, Ribbon, Ninjara, and plenty of others all are fairly the same average height and all have extendable arms. If Banjo can build off Ridley id say its possible.

without even going into ninjara and springman, min min and ribbon girl arent even the same body type.

and i gotta disagree with people saying Arms could change its mascot. ARMs is about the stretchy arms. its not strictly a "boxing game." min min would be fine mascot for the game and if the game pivoted to her it would still work. Main characters dont have to be vanilla or plain in design guilty gear and others have proved that to be false.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

>one character from the ARMS(TM) game will be crowned ultimate champion

HmmmmmMMMMMMM...

 

[Tako Tuesday]

Like would Nintendo really just keep it an mystery for three month to surprise and hype fans just to have it be revealed to be the obvious? Otherwise what would had been the point of all of that? Why not just reveal him right away?

Which is why I have doubts over it being Spring Man.

Which is why I'm leaning on multiple characters. Spring Man gets promoted to playable, with other characters joining him. The core mechanics in ARMS make every character feel similar to an extent, especially those in the same weight class. This is why I think they could pull off a Hero situation.

Also, a good deal of the variety in ARMS comes from the Arms themselves, moreso than the character exclusive abilities. Every character can use the same Arms, so it wouldn't be too hard to pull off a Hero with them.

 

[MisterMike]

So I Know you guys are talking about who the ARMS Character is, but is anyone wondering who could be apart of ARMS Mii Costume Pack? Mii Costumes are important part of Speculation as well. Personally I Predict Rayman

I think we're going to get another variety pack akin to Banjo and Byleth:

• The two returning costumes will be the Monster Hunter costumes.
• The two new costumes would most likely be more new third party costumes. If it's anything like Ubisoft's contributions, maybe we'll get some Bethesda costumes? Perhaps a certain rumored Meatwad finally makes it's appearance? I dunno...
• The last costume will most likely be another indie character a la Sans and Cuphead. No idea who it would be, but I have heard people bring up Hollow Knight and Ori. Personally I'd like to see Miriam, Yooka & Laylee, or Madeline from Celeste.

 

[osby]

Except don't all the ARMS characters have their own unique moves and special abilities? That's a problem I see having the Hero/Bowser Jr. treatment.

Smash doesn't have to include those differences, though. As long as they can share a model base, they're fair game.

 

[MrElectroG64]

Like would Nintendo really just keep it an mystery for three month to surprise and hype fans just to have it be revealed to be the obvious? Otherwise what would had been the point of all of that? Why not just reveal him right away?

Which is why I have doubts over it being Spring Man.

I feel like it's most likely Springman plus lots of other characters, based on that reveal, but I feel something nobody is considering (at least as far as I've seen) that this weirdness probably has a lot more to do with COVID than it does Nintendo intentionally doing it to reveal a strange outcome. Probably a case of seizing the opportunity, as the outcome may still be kind of weird/unexpected ala "multiple characters as alts," but guided by the virus's inconveniences.

Except don't all the ARMS characters have their own unique moves and special abilities? That's a problem I see having the Hero/Bowser Jr. treatment.

They would likely just combine the abilities of the multiple characters used as alts into one moveset, as Sakurai has done that multiple times before in the past, namely and most recently Simon and Richter.