Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Cutie Gwen]

Probably because they had schedule this event a head of time before they knew they were making more DLC. They're not releasing Spirit Events whenever they want, they have a road map on when to release these, what tournament is happening, and all the other stuff.


Not necessary. Cloud is extremely legendary but just about everyone agreed that he was never getting in. Barely anyone entertained the idea of Cloud of actually happening so barely anyone requested him. There was a reason why he blew up the internet for a few days, not because he was extremely requested but because he was the last character anyone thought would show up.
Also Ryu is really legendary, he's the face of fighting games, yet not many people wanted him. Even when he was leaked people were more confused.
Dragon Quest kind of falls in line with that, of course it's a legendary franchise in Japan but most of them thought that wasn't even possible so they didn't really speak up or request for it in Smash.

People didn't entertain Cloud because LOL NOT NINTENDO ENOUGH AHAHAHA yet he got about a third of the Final Fantasy votes on the ballot, this site also had a rule where you were only allowed to make a support thread if they appeared on Nintendo, which only got removed during Ultimate's speculation scene iirc. Actions speak louder than words

 

[Ridrool64]

If it's a Pokémon from Gen 8, I'm betting entirely on Urshifu or Calyrex. I can agree that base game SWSH is out because of the Spirit Event, but I'd hesitate on the DLC unless we get a second one for that. Depends on what Nintendo wants to promote and if Sakurai thinks one of them will work.

I believe we will get one, because it is Pokémon and it always has and always will. But I am writing off the starters, Toxtricity and anybody else from base game. Urshifu/Calyrex are prominent, and represent a new game so that's all Nintendo needs. For a moveset, Sakurai probably has access to design documents to know what they're capable of. Whichever one doesn't get in will probably be the Legend Spirit of the other's board, if not Eternatus.

I can't really say on whether or not the SWSH Spirit Event eliminates Gen 8 entirely, only the base game, or only the featured spirits.

 

[chocolatejr9]

hmmm

Whatever happened to the rumors of a Granblue Fantasy character getting in? Last I heard of it was probably still pre-release, or at least pre-e3 2019. Normally people hold onto characters longer than this once somebody 'leaks' them once (see: Ryu Hayabusa); I wonder what the deal is with this.

Hey DaybreakHorizon , you're the one preaching about Granblue in Smash, right? Do you mind answering this?

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Being a “legend” in gaming does not always mean you generate a “hype” reaction. They don’t always go hand in hand.

I don’t know what it is, but the Smash fanbase is extremely rigid with how some characters are received. Pac-Man is an industry icon, a Mount Rushmore figure of gaming history if you would. Was he the most popular character? I wouldn’t say that.

Cloud is an RPG protagonist from one of the most influential games ever, was hardly ever considered prior to his reveal because of console wars, etc. He blows up the internet because of a mix of factors.

Not every situation is the same thing. You do not need to be a “legend” to get into Smash, but you also don’t have to be a “legend” AND “popular” to get into Smash.

We got Joker, who frankly is...neither. When he was revealed basically one user was asking for him. ONE. Persona 5 is a newer game that broke into the mainstream on the PlayStation. It broke a lot of ground and was a GOTY nominee. It’s an excellent game.

We’re better off looking at each pick individually rather than trying to force definitions of words to describe a swathe of options. Or whatever it is that people are trying to do.

 

[Schnee117]

Pac-Man didn't really garner any big reactions because they bungled his reveal big time.
For most people he was just a random, unannounced video uploaded in the middle of the night.

 

[Wunderwaft]

hmmm

Whatever happened to the rumors of a Granblue Fantasy character getting in? Last I heard of it was probably still pre-release, or at least pre-e3 2019. Normally people hold onto characters longer than this once somebody 'leaks' them once (see: Ryu Hayabusa); I wonder what the deal is with this.

If you mean Hitagi's Katalina rumors those were bogus information.

 

[SKX31]

I felt like a Overwatch spirit event may be the best for Overwatch representation in smash.

I'm going to respectfully disagree as someone who has played (and enjoyed) Overwatch quite a lot. I'd honestly prefer a playable character from Overwatch. I've just been silent about the topic since I'm the guy who most closely watches China here. And I don't want to get into too many Hong Kong discussions here since A) This is not a political thread, and B) The line between Chinese megacorps and the Chinese state is uncomfortably thin at places: which makes the Blitzchung debacle even more tied to politics. Like Tencent's Messenger / Skype service (WeChat) practically doubling as China's ID system and being used as a mass censorship tool during the protests.

That said, my preference for playability = / = my opinion on the Blitzchung debacle: Yes, A-B screwed up badly there and made it look like they were cowtowing.

I wouldn't say no to an Overwatch Spirit event personally though. Better than nothing. On that note: Any OW Spirit event is not complete without McCree (Terry with Sheriff on Autospawn).

Pac-Man didn't really garner any big reactions because they bungled his reveal big time.
For most people he was just a random, unannounced video uploaded in the middle of the night.

Yeah, the character reveals have been inconsistent and bumpy. Still though, there wasn't much of a structure (wasn't Sonic also revealed out of the blue?*) to the reveals prior to FP1. That was a mitigating factor at the time.

*(Pun fully intended)

 

[Deleted member]

hmmm

Whatever happened to the rumors of a Granblue Fantasy character getting in? Last I heard of it was probably still pre-release, or at least pre-e3 2019. Normally people hold onto characters longer than this once somebody 'leaks' them once (see: Ryu Hayabusa); I wonder what the deal is with this.

That stuff with Katalina? The ones they were talkjng about for quite some time?

Those were the days.

 

[DarthEnderX]

If it's a Pokémon from Gen 8, I'm betting entirely on Urshifu or Calyrex.

I wouldn't. There hasn't been a playable Legendary since Mewtwo.

 

[Seanapotamus]

If you mean Hitagi's Katalina rumors those were bogus information.

Didn't Hitagi also claim that Steve was also coming to Smash back in 2018?

I seem to remember back during base game speculation when there were other people who claimed to have insider info, like loz18 and Xenother.

 

[PeridotGX]

Sorry, wrong thread

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I don’t know what it is, but the Smash fanbase is extremely rigid with how some characters are received. Pac-Man is an industry icon, a Mount Rushmore figure of gaming history if you would. Was he the most popular character? I wouldn’t say that.

I think it's because PAC-MAN isn't all that relevant nowadays. He's incredibly well known, but he doesn't get any games that aren't "hey it's another PAC-MAN port/slightly altered derivitive". So for most people I'd say everyone is happy he's here, and would be pretty sad if he left, but no one's really chomping at the bit to play as him. Especially with an implementation that simultaneously seems really good and really hard to get good with.

 

[Garteam]

No. Garteam just keeps repeating the claim.

While we don't have the actual ballot results, we can check fan polls to gain some idea of how certain characters performed.

Is this fool proof? No, Castlevania was specifically said to do well on the ballot, but that isn't reflected in fan polls. However, Ridley and K. Rool were also confirmed to be ballot picks and those results are basically universal across most fan polls. Likewise, the stuff about Banjo and "Everyone is Here!" being done to appeal to fans also heavily implies the ballot played some roll in those things happening, which is generally reflected by fan polls having Banjo and cut veterans rank relatively high.

Could there be other characters who slipped through the cracks? Absolutely, but there would need to be some explanation as to why this general anomaly exists between fan ballots and the official ballot. Castlevania, for example, was stated to not have one character do particularly well, but the sum of the series made Castlevania characters extremely popular. This methodological difference makes sense, as most polls were focused on characters rather than their series of origin.

 

[SNEKeater]

Sometimes you don't know you wanted a character until said fighter actually happens. That's what happened to me with Joker.
I never ****ing thought about the possibility of Joker or any Persona character being in Smash, and I love P3, P4 and P5. That means Joker is a bad character because people like me never thought of him? Nope.
Never thought about Joker as a candidate for Smash, then when it happened I seriously felt like I was dreaming or something. Never saw it coming. In the end, he's one of my fave additions to Ultimate and that's funny because a year ago, as I said, I never considered him (or any Persona protag) for Smash.

Cloud, probably a similar situation for a lot of people. I wasn't active in the Smash community by then but most of people didn't expected Cloud, not because he seemed like a bad choice to these people but because Cloud was probably seen like a absolute pipe dream. Also because "not Nintendo" and all that, I guess.

A similar point could be made with Terry, I think. And honestly, I think this kind of situations are the most exciting when it comes to Smash reveals. I mean, now Dante's name is almost everywhere when it comes to Smash speculation and I'd be so so pleased if he, or another of my most wanteds, ends up being announced, but at the same time I also want to feel absolute surprise with some of the upcoming characters. It doesn't have to be a character that has never been discussed, maybe a character who from time to time was considered but never saw as a serious pick.
In fact I'm pretty sure 1 or 2 characters in the next pass will be like that, that's what I'm expecting. Left-field picks are great and exciting if you ask me.

I guess a good balance for pass 2 would be
2 fan requests (like Banjo)
2 popular characters (like Hero/Dragon Quest rep)
2 unexpected characters (like Joker and Terry)

I actually highly doubt that’s even something they’d consider.

Chances are Fighter 6 is done, and the development team is more or less stuck in a rut on all characters until things relating to COVID-19 settle down. This means that any work, on any fighter, is going to either slow down immensely or halt altogether.

It’s not a major problem. They’re not getting excessive work done on other picks as of now, and chances are they won’t until things blow over. I don’t see any reason to think any pick would be replaced, especially when the contracts are in place already.

What I could see is FP6 reveal being delayed in order to not create a large gap between FP6 and 7 if the situation lasts enough for Nintendo to choose that option.
But I wouldn't be surprised if most of the work for FP7 is already done.

 

[wynn728]

People didn't entertain Cloud because LOL NOT NINTENDO ENOUGH AHAHAHA yet he got about a third of the Final Fantasy votes on the ballot, this site also had a rule where you were only allowed to make a support thread if they appeared on Nintendo, which only got removed during Ultimate's speculation scene iirc. Actions speak louder than words

It takes like a year to make a character for both 3DS & Wii U and we learn that the Ballot was cut off after two weeks to include Bayonetta. I extremely doubt that the ballot even had a factor on Cloud due to how long it takes to make a character and getting the rights also take a long time to acquire. It was most likely decided before the ballot was even announced.

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

Sometimes you don't know you wanted a character until said fighter actually happens.

Amen.
Gonna be honest, I wasn't a big fan of the various leaks/rumors speculating Hero and Terry because they weren't MY characters I wanted, but I also know that if Sakurai picked them for DLC, he must have had a damn good reason. If Sakurai isn't going to give me the 30-odd obscure Zelda characters I want for Smash or really any hotly-demanded characters in general, then it's his job to win me over on why these characters were worth forking over extra money. And on that front, he (mostly) succeeded, seeing as I'm deep into the DQ11 postgame.

My attitude towards the Fighters Pack 1 can be summed up in this meme making the rounds:

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Cloud, probably a similar situation for a lot of people. I wasn't active in the Smash community by then but most of people didn't expected Cloud, not because he seemed like a bad choice to these people but because Cloud was probably seen like a absolute pipe dream. Also because "not Nintendo" and all that, I guess.

I know a lot of people didn't see Cloud in particular for pipe dream reasons, but there were a lot of people who did expect some Final Fantasy rep to get added one day, whether it be one of the FF 1-6 protagonists or the generic characters that appeared in the Mario Basketball/Mario Sports Mix games. I'd say the series was closer to Street Fighter (possibly even viewed as more likely due to no one expecting two reps from the same company prior to Ryu himself being revealed) in terms of speculation than Persona or Fatal Fury, even if Cloud was closer to Joker and Terry.


(I personally envisioned a Pokemon Trainer Type Trio of three of these guys).

 

[Evil Trapezium]

I guess a good balance for pass 2 would be
2 fan requests (like Banjo)
2 popular characters (like Hero/Dragon Quest rep)
2 unexpected characters (like Joker and Terry)

Did somebody say "Make your own Fighters pass using these rules?"

No? Well too bad, it's here anyway.

1. Sora (Kingdom Hearts)
2. Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney)
3. Crash Bandicoot (Crash Bandicoot)
4. Dante (Devil May Cry)
5. Klonoa (Klonoa)
6. SGT. CORTEZ! (TimeSplitters)
It's Time to Split!

I'll have to create some new gifs... starting to run dry...

 

[SNEKeater]

I know a lot of people didn't see Cloud in particular for pipe dream reasons, but there were a lot of people who did expect some Final Fantasy rep to get added one day, whether it be one of the FF 1-6 protagonists or the generic characters that appeared in the Mario Basketball/Mario Sports Mix games. I'd say the series was closer to Street Fighter (possibly even viewed as more likely due to no one expecting two reps from the same company prior to Ryu himself being revealed) in terms of speculation than Persona or Fatal Fury, even if Cloud was closer to Joker and Terry.

Well, that's true. Final Fantasy was in a closer spot to Street Fighter before Cloud got in.
But even if now it seems like the only possible choice, I think Cloud is the best choice to rep the series. Having a black mage or a 'generic' character able to change jobs would be cool, but honestly I prefer choosing protags. Sakurai thinks similar because the same happened with Dragon Quest.
Sure, a black mage or something like that would be cool and it's still Final Fantasy, but to me it would feel wrong in a certain sense.

Cloud's not even my fave FF protag, but he's without a question the most popular and well-known main character of the series, so even without the Ballot I think Sakurai would have chosen him everyday.
The character itself was probably perceived similar to Joker or Terry due to the strong ties between FFVII and PlayStation to the point where he's saw as a PlayStation character by some people, while Final Fantasy as a franchise was considered as a likely 3rd party, I guess.

 

[Seanapotamus]

I guess a good balance for pass 2 would be
2 fan requests (like Banjo)
2 popular characters (like Hero/Dragon Quest rep)
2 unexpected characters (like Joker and Terry)

Let's say that the fighters pass does end up being this balanced. Here's a possibility based on this layout:

Fan requests:

• Lloyd Irving (Tales of Symphonia)
• Sora (Kingdom Hearts)

Popular characters:

• Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)
• Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden)

Left-field picks:

• Billy Lee (Double Dragon). I feel like Double Dragon is being slept on in speculation.
• Sakura (Sakura Wars)

 

[chocolatejr9]

I guess a good balance for pass 2 would be
2 fan requests (like Banjo)
2 popular characters (like Hero/Dragon Quest rep)
2 unexpected characters (like Joker and Terry)

Let me try this:

Fan requests:
* Rex (Xenoblade)
* Bandana Waddle Dee (Kirby)
Popular:
* 2B (NieR)
* Dante (Devil May Cry)
Unexpected:
* Monokuma (Danganronpa)
* Euden (Dragalia Lost)

 

[Captain Shwampy]

Speaking of ignorance towards series alot of smash fans really like to pass off on Phantasy Star.

Rieko Kodama deserves better.

Most of Sega's history is them making great stuff and not getting recognition of it, so this is nothing new.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Sometimes you don't know you wanted a character until said fighter actually happens. That's what happened to me with Joker.
I never ****ing thought about the possibility of Joker or any Persona character being in Smash, and I love P3, P4 and P5. That means Joker is a bad character because people like me never thought of him? Nope.
Never thought about Joker as a candidate for Smash, then when it happened I seriously felt like I was dreaming or something. Never saw it coming. In the end, he's one of my fave additions to Ultimate and that's funny because a year ago, as I said, I never considered him (or any Persona protag) for Smash.

Cloud, probably a similar situation for a lot of people. I wasn't active in the Smash community by then but most of people didn't expected Cloud, not because he seemed like a bad choice to these people but because Cloud was probably seen like a absolute pipe dream. Also because "not Nintendo" and all that, I guess.

A similar point could be made with Terry, I think. And honestly, I think this kind of situations are the most exciting when it comes to Smash reveals. I mean, now Dante's name is almost everywhere when it comes to Smash speculation and I'd be so so pleased if he, or another of my most wanteds, ends up being announced, but at the same time I also want to feel absolute surprise with some of the upcoming characters. It doesn't have to be a character that has never been discussed, maybe a character who from time to time was considered but never saw as a serious pick.
In fact I'm pretty sure 1 or 2 characters in the next pass will be like that, that's what I'm expecting. Left-field picks are great and exciting if you ask me.

I guess a good balance for pass 2 would be
2 fan requests (like Banjo)
2 popular characters (like Hero/Dragon Quest rep)
2 unexpected characters (like Joker and Terry)



What I could see is FP6 reveal being delayed in order to not create a large gap between FP6 and 7 if the situation lasts enough for Nintendo to choose that option.
But I wouldn't be surprised if most of the work for FP7 is already done.

2 fan requests: Bandana Dee and Dixie Kong
2 popular characters: 2B and Shantae
2 unexpected characters: Elma and Octoling who didn't see this coming from me

 

[Ben Holt]

Let me try this:

Fan requests:
* Rex (Xenoblade)
* Bandana Waddle Dee (Kirby)
Popular:
* 2B (NieR)
* Dante (Devil May Cry)
Unexpected:
* Monokuma (Danganronpa)
* Euden (Dragalia Lost)

Gotta stop you right there.
No Crash; no deal.
Even though I already prepurchased the pass the moment is was available.
But I'll complain if Crash isn't in.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Gotta stop you right there.
No Crash; no deal.
Even though I already prepurchased the pass the moment is was available.
But I'll complain if Crash isn't in.

So should I get rid of 2B or Dante?

 

[Ben Holt]

So should I get rid of 2B or Dante?

It's your list, not mine.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

This is pretty much what I have in my mind when I did my prediction:
-Steve and Dante is the fan request, while some other characters are probably more popular, they're still huge in the fanbase.
-Arle and Hayabusa are the popular. They don't have as much following as Steve and Dante, but Puyo puyo is very popular in Japan and Ninja gaiden was very popular on the NES era.
-Travis and 2B are the unexpected. Both comes from smaller franchises and less popular franchises. 2B is especially unexpected because of her lack of apparence of Nintendo platforms like Joker.

 

[Garteam]

I guess a good balance for pass 2 would be
2 fan requests (like Banjo)
2 popular characters (like Hero/Dragon Quest rep)
2 unexpected characters (like Joker and Terry).

Fan favourites: Geno (Super Mario RPG) and Bandana Waddle Dee (Kirby)
Popular characters: Crash Bandicoot (Pizza Hut Commercials) and Heihachi (Tekken)
Unexpected characters: Shiori Fujisaki (Tokimeki Memorial) and Amaterasu (Okami)

 

[DarthEnderX]

It takes like a year to make a character for both 3DS & Wii U and we learn that the Ballot was cut off after two weeks to include Bayonetta. I extremely doubt that the ballot even had a factor on Cloud due to how long it takes to make a character and getting the rights also take a long time to acquire. It was most likely decided before the ballot was even announced.

I don't believe the ballot had an effect on ANYONE in Smash 4. And if Bayonetta real DID end up high on the ballot(which I don't actually believe), then it was a coincidence that they were already adding her.

 

[wynn728]

I don't believe the ballot had an effect on ANYONE in Smash 4. And if Bayonetta real DID end up high on the ballot(which I don't actually believe), then it was a coincidence that they were already adding her.

To be fair, I did vote for Bayonetta around 300 times each day during the ballot and my idea for the character turned out pretty close to how she turned out.

 

[chocolatejr9]

To be fair, I did vote for Bayonetta around 300 times each day during the ballot and my idea for the character turned out pretty close to how she turned out.

Do you view that as a good thing or a bad thing?

 

[wynn728]

Do you view that as a good thing or a bad thing?

What do you think?

 

[chocolatejr9]

What do you think?

I'm going to guess "good", but please forgive me if I'm wrong.

 

[Cosmic77]

There were files for Bayo and Cloud found only a week or two after the ballot started, and there's a decent chance both had been negotiated long before then.

Voting for Bayo may have helped Sakurai feel more confident in the character, but I don't think votes had any impact on her being chosen whatsoever. If I had to take a wild guess, Bayo was one of those characters that Nintendo requested Sakurai add in Smash for promotional purposes. Raise awareness of her series and hopefully it would pay off for future installments.

 

[CureParfait]

I guess a good balance for pass 2 would be
2 fan requests (like Banjo)
2 popular characters (like Hero/Dragon Quest rep)
2 unexpected characters (like Joker and Terry)

2 Fan requests= Geno (Super Mario RPG) and Crash (Crash Bandicoot Series)
2 Popular characters= 2B (Nier Automata) and Dante (Devil May Cry)
2 Unexpected characters= Monokuma (Danganronpa) and Waluigi (Mario Series)

 

[Ben Holt]

2 Fan requests= Geno (Super Mario RPG) and Crash (Crash Bandicoot Series)
2 Popular characters= 2B (Nier Automata) and Dante (Devil May Cry)
2 Unexpected characters= Monokuma (Danganronpa) and Waluigi (Mario Series)

Replace 2B with Doom Slayer (Or Master Chief. I understand that they're extremely similar and both super important to gaming history.), and I give this an A+.

 

[Will]

To be fair, I did vote for Bayonetta around 300 times each day during the ballot

You being serious? Cause that sounds pretty deprived and sad, dude.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I guess a good balance for pass 2 would be
2 fan requests (like Banjo)
2 popular characters (like Hero/Dragon Quest rep)
2 unexpected characters (like Joker and Terry)
But I wouldn't be surprised if most of the work for FP7 is already done.

2 fan requests: Crash Bandicoot and Sora
2 popular characters: Phoenix Wright and 2B
2 unexpected characters: Amaterasu and Master Chief

 

[wynn728]

You being serious? Cause that sounds pretty deprived and sad, dude.

I had a lot of time on my hands and I really wanted Bayonetta. Probably was less than 300.

 

[Will]

I had a lot of time on my hands and I really wanted Bayonetta. Probably was less than 300.

Less than 300 DAILY.

I almost don't wanna believe it. You may just be the sole reason Bayonetta got in Smash 4.