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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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HansShotFirst20

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Quite a few come to mind. I remember when IamShifty claimed that Ryu Hayabusa was FP4 but he was wrong. And then he claimed Hayabusa was FP5 but that also was incorrect, which I believe this claim came during the Jonesy incident.
I know a lot of people like Ninja Gaiden and Ryu (myself included, ever since I watched AVGN as a kid), but at this point he's more associated with DoA -- and I really hope that game stays out of Smash, given recent practices by Tecmo.

If Ryu ever gets added, I hope he's just a Ninja Gaiden character, and has nothing to do with DoA.
 

M@R!3

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I Think Sora is a lock at this point. He has too many things going for him not to be in Smash.
1. Approached by nintendo
2. Ballot
3. Sales
4. Would surprise people/hype people
5. IP is S tier.

Dante, i think, isnt gonna happen.
1. Too many satanic reference to tone down for christian families. ( Same thing happened to yugioh)
2. Below nobodies/no chances like agumon and raymAn on the ballot in Europe.
3.
Was assumed a lock on fp5. Got bylth. The cycle is basically gonna repeat itself. He's the hayasuba of this month.
4. Resident evil is still not in. Bigger game.

Crash isn't as likely as people think he is.
1.Owned by activision.
2. Eh on the ballot.
3. Japan dont care
4. Shell of former self.
As much as I want Sora I can't get behind your reasoning, and even if I could the circumstances required for anyone to consider him a lock are very extreme. Leaked gameplay footage with unique properties that would be impossible to emulate through mods extreme.

1. Approached by Nintendo.
We simply don't know this. The only thing we have is Imran Khan's speculation from that podcast a while back.

2. Ballot
We don't know how highly requested Sora was on the ballot. My guess is average at best simply because Cloud hadn't yet opened the internet's eyes to all of the possibilities.

The other three points are held by multiple popular characters with fewer hurdles than Sora, including Dante and Crash.
 

HansShotFirst20

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Damn, I really wish Akuma still had a chance, but I don't think he has enough to set him apart from the other Shotos to justify his inclusion (then again, Lucas and Roy were both semi-clone DLC's).

Akuma brings an energy to a game that really only Akuma can bring -- except maybe Shao Khan -- that being the quarter-devouring soul-destroying fighting game final boss. With Smash's history of non-playable bosses, I feel that energy of playing as the final boss is absent in smash, even when playing as bosses from other games like Bowser.

If Akuma got in, I'd like him to be more of a derivation of Shin Akuma, so as to set him apart from the Shotos and establish his role as a 'playable boss' character.
 

RileyXY1

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As much as I want Sora I can't get behind your reasoning, and even if I could the circumstances required for anyone to consider him a lock are very extreme. Leaked gameplay footage with unique properties that would be impossible to emulate through mods extreme.

1. Approached by Nintendo.
We simply don't know this. The only thing we have is Imran Khan's speculation from that podcast a while back.

2. Ballot
We don't know how highly requested Sora was on the ballot. My guess is average at best simply because Cloud hadn't yet opened the internet's eyes to all of the possibilities.

The other three points are held by multiple popular characters with fewer hurdles than Sora, including Dante and Crash.
And not only that, if Sora gets in Nintendo would have to get on board with Disney.
 
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RileyXY1

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I highly doubt that we would have to wait until June to reveal the first FP2 character, especially considering that the physical card comes out later this month.
 

Knight Dude

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I Think Sora is a lock at this point. He has too many things going for him not to be in Smash.
1. Approached by nintendo
2. Ballot
3. Sales
4. Would surprise people/hype people
5. IP is S tier.

Dante, i think, isnt gonna happen.
1. Too many satanic reference to tone down for christian families. ( Same thing happened to yugioh)
2. Below nobodies/no chances like agumon and raymAn on the ballot in Europe.
3.
Was assumed a lock on fp5. Got bylth. The cycle is basically gonna repeat itself. He's the hayasuba of this month.
4. Resident evil is still not in. Bigger game.

Crash isn't as likely as people think he is.
1.Owned by activision.
2. Eh on the ballot.
3. Japan dont care
4. Shell of former self.
For Dante, we have things like Holy Water and Crosses used for Belmonts, as well as demons for both Bayo and Ganon's final Smashes. And while Resident Evil is a bigger franchise than DMC, Halo is bigger than Banjo-Kazooie and they got in before Master Chief. Hell, RE is Capcom's biggest franchise overall, surpassing Mega Man and Street Fighter as well, but Jill didn't get in before Mega Man or Ryu did she? A lot of people are gonna expect popular characters, being expected doesn't actually effect their chances in a positive or negative manner.

Bruh, Crash's games are some of the best selling western titles in Japan. I think its safe to say he's pretty popular there, Spyro was the one that didn't take off. And he's slowly making a comeback, he's certainly in a better situation than Castlevania or Metal Gear are currently. Mega Man was still in his hiatus when he was added to Smash too. Whether Activision is willing to play nice we don't know yet, but since DK(and Diddy) and Bowser got to be in a Skylanders title, I'm sure they are on at least decent terms. This doesn't mean Crash is a lock, just that he isn't in a completely **** situation either.
 

M@R!3

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They say that yet it's also suddenly the first game where Disney's characters are actually relevant to the plot so I don't buy that excuse, not to mention it doesn't address how Disney fully owns the KH brand
Yeah, I remember when Jack Sparrow outwitted Master Xehanort via parley and he had to give up the X-Blade. Completely robbed us of the final boss battle. Thanks Disney.
 

chocolatejr9

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Yeah, I remember when Jack Sparrow outwitted Master Xehanort via parley and he had to give up the X-Blade. Completely robbed us of the final boss battle. Thanks Disney.
And don't get me started on the "Olaf is an Organization spy" twist.
 
D

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I'm still thinking until June given Sakurai's statement of "Taking some time" and so far its proven itself unless we don't get anything next week.
Are you literally using Smash Bros as an argument for why a Direct wouldn't happen? Dude, the February direct last year didn't even reveal anybody. There's being cautious and then there's being absurd.

 
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D

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Friendly reminder that Nintendo exists beyond Smash.

Not doing a Direct just because they don't have a Smash announcement to include in is just the dumbest choice a company would make during a big news drought.

And to the people saying "No news until E3": E3 has been cancelled so that argument is basically under the ground.
 

I.D.

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Why wouldn't they have a Smash announcement on a Direct anyway? "Taking some time" would have been a legit argument against that... back in February. It's been two whole months since Byleth's (and season 2) announcement.
 
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Knight Dude

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If Nakoruru couldn't get in over Terry. I don't see Kasumi tbh. Its either Hayabusa or Zhao. Especially the former who is pretty much the face and mascot of Koei.
Not exactly the same. Kasumi I'm pretty sure is the lead character of DoA, while Nakoruru, despite being popular, is still a secondary character in Samurai Shodown, Haohmaru is the lead character.

I do agree that it'd probably be Hayabusa or bust though.
 
D

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Why wouldn't they have an Smash announcement on a Direct anyway? "Taking some time" would have been a legit argument against that... back in February. It's been two whole months since Byleth's (and season 2) announcement.
Yeah, a Smash announcement is quite indeed really likely for a March or April Direct.

The main point I am bringing is that even in the case a Smash announcement couldn't be shown the Direct could still happen, since certain individuals were claiming a Direct must have Smash to happen.

But Smash or not, my gut is telling me this upcoming Direct will be a really good one.
 

DaybreakHorizon

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As much as I want Sora I can't get behind your reasoning, and even if I could the circumstances required for anyone to consider him a lock are very extreme. Leaked gameplay footage with unique properties that would be impossible to emulate through mods extreme.

1. Approached by Nintendo.
We simply don't know this. The only thing we have is Imran Khan's speculation from that podcast a while back.

2. Ballot
We don't know how highly requested Sora was on the ballot. My guess is average at best simply because Cloud hadn't yet opened the internet's eyes to all of the possibilities.

The other three points are held by multiple popular characters with fewer hurdles than Sora, including Dante and Crash.
While I agree with your points, I'd be willing to bet Sora was at least Top 20 in the Ballot overall, if not higher.

I've spoken extensively about it in the past (I believe I covered most of it in my Ultimate Square Enix Character Argument), but the Kingdom Hearts fanbase mobilized en masse to vote for Sora in the ballot. KH Youtubers with tens of thousands of subscribers and other popular community figures were constantly making content and posting tweets telling and reminding fans to vote for Sora over the duration of the entire ballot period. He also garnered some traction within the core fanbase, albeit not nearly as much as some other characters. This was only in the West. Sora has consistently scored high (Top 5) on fan polls in Japan, so I can imagine he did very well there as well.
 
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D

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Hey guys! Do you know what day of the week this is again?

That's right! Spirit Boards/Events. Lets see who might potentially fall.
We just had a spirit event last week. This week should shape up to be a Tourney Event instead, but whatever the theme is for it has yet to be seen. I'm just wondering when the eventual Fire Emblem tourney gets announced since at some point they're gonna do this.
No clue what shady **** it is but it can't be worse than Nintendo profiting off of nazi-esque work camps meant to murder Muslims in China
I think he's referring to KT's handling of DoA 6 currently with its overpriced DLC (which actually costs around $500 USD and not $2000 since DOA 6 is also F2P and Steam bundles up all the prices of the characters and other things with it to make it look a lot more bloated than it already is) and the $1 hair color change microtransactions. Koei-Tecmo does have an actual problem with how they've handled DLC with most of their recent games, and DOA 6 happens to be the most egregious of them all. Pretty much the only thing I could say that sounds positive about it is that it isn't loot boxes and nowhere near the level of supporting a corrupt regime, but it still doesn't defend Season Passes that cost more than the full game itself.
So some people at Reset Era are talking about this. True or not, the source is hilarious.

[twitter post]
Before that, they "leaked" E3 being cancelled. Not a hard guess if you ask me, but there it is.

[twitter post]
This is truly the strangest timeline.
Next thing you know, leakers and insiders will be getting their sources through onlyfans
 

LiveStudioAudience

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For Dante, we have things like Holy Water and Crosses used for Belmonts, as well as demons for both Bayo and Ganon's final Smashes. And while Resident Evil is a bigger franchise than DMC, Halo is bigger than Banjo-Kazooie and they got in before Master Chief. Hell, RE is Capcom's biggest franchise overall, surpassing Mega Man and Street Fighter as well, but Jill didn't get in before Mega Man or Ryu did she? A lot of people are gonna expect popular characters, being expected doesn't actually effect their chances in a positive or negative manner.

Bruh, Crash's games are some of the best selling western titles in Japan. I think its safe to say he's pretty popular there, Spyro was the one that didn't take off. And he's slowly making a comeback, he's certainly in a better situation than Castlevania or Metal Gear are currently. Mega Man was still in his hiatus when he was added to Smash too. Whether Activision is willing to play nice we don't know yet, but since DK(and Diddy) and Bowser got to be in a Skylanders title, I'm sure they are on at least decent terms. This doesn't mean Crash is a lock, just that he isn't in a completely **** situation either.
Heck Nitro Fueled, a remake of a Crash racing spin-off game from 20 years ago has done incredibly good numbers, and is the second most talked about racer on the market right now behind Mario Kart. Market relevance doesn't necessarily mean a spot (RE only has spirits after all), but the between the original N'Sane Trilogy release in 2017, the successful ports of that in 2018, and CTR's release in 2019, the franchise is in the healthiest state's its been in for 15 plus years.
 
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clearandsweet

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While I agree with your points, I'd be willing to bet Sora was at least Top 20 in the Ballot overall, if not higher.

I've spoken extensively about it in the past (I believe I covered most of it in my Ultimate Square Enix Character Argument), but the Kingdom Hearts fanbase mobilized en masse to vote for Sora in the ballot. KH Youtubers with tens of thousands of subscribers and other popular community figures were constantly making content and posting tweets telling and reminding fans to vote for Sora over the duration of the entire ballot period. He also garnered some traction within the core fanbase, albeit not nearly as much as some other characters. This was only in the West. Sora has consistently scored high (Top 5) on fan polls in Japan, so I can imagine he did very well there as well.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...pw5m-b4JHJ0_cGRKU15KYlTe1E/edit#gid=729442469

31st overall, if there is any merit at all to the exit polls.

In Japan, tied with Waluigi for... 31st.

Crash was 70th.
 
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Hadokeyblade

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While I agree with your points, I'd be willing to bet Sora was at least Top 20 in the Ballot overall, if not higher.

I've spoken extensively about it in the past (I believe I covered most of it in my Ultimate Square Enix Character Argument), but the Kingdom Hearts fanbase mobilized en masse to vote for Sora in the ballot. KH Youtubers with tens of thousands of subscribers and other popular community figures were constantly making content and posting tweets telling and reminding fans to vote for Sora over the duration of the entire ballot period. He also garnered some traction within the core fanbase, albeit not nearly as much as some other characters. This was only in the West. Sora has consistently scored high (Top 5) on fan polls in Japan, so I can imagine he did very well there as well.
Wasn't there a character who was cut from Smash 4 DLC because of licensing issues or something? It's entirely possible that was Sora given how popular a request he is.

I would imagine the licensing fees to use him for both Smash 4 and ultimate would have been painful.
 

Wunderwaft

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I kind of feel like we keep referring to the ballot every time in hopes that it might still hold some swaying power in deciding the characters for season 2. Not only is it a very old poll at this point, but Sakurai has already said since last year that he's not gonna rely on the ballot anymore as a reference material because it's been used heavily in Ultimate's development.

Like, Joker didn't even exist when the ballot was a thing. And I doubt Terry did that well because SNK was still in it's dark era before the revival that brought back interest to it's franchises.

Hell, we now know that Minecraft bridging the gap and Microsoft approaching Nintendo during 2018 E3 was the main reason Banjo got in, it's possible that Nintendo wouldn't have bothered asking for Banjo unless Microsoft made the first move, even if he was a popular ballot request.

The ballot's main influence was the base game of Ultimate, everything after that was out of it's jurisdiction. We can speculate on who did well in the ballot and whatnot, but I feel like that ship has already sailed and we're long past it. Nintendo may be idiots at times but I'm sure they at least have some idea on what their core fanbase wants. Sometimes they care about what we want and sometimes they don't, that has been their modus operandi for some time now.
 

clearandsweet

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Sakurai has already said since last year that he's not gonna rely on the ballot anymore as a reference material because it's been used heavily in Ultimate's development.

The ballot's main influence was the base game of Ultimate, everything after that was out of it's jurisdiction.
{source needed}

You mean this? [source]

1584399849501.png


It was used very much =/= not going to rely on it anymore
 
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D

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I may as well list some of the stuff I could see happening on the next general Direct:

>Something regarding BotW2.
>XCDE stuff due to the release being closer.
>NMH3 stuff.
>Some sort of Metroid stuff. Either about Prime 4 or a separate project done by another dev team (Mercury Steam for example).
>Dragon Quest ports (my personal bet is on Heroes 1+2 getting a Western release and maybe the DQM Switch port too).
>A gameplay trailer for the Fantastic Four DLC in UA3 if It happens during the current daily news countdown Marvel is going to make until the release of It.
>Maybe something regarding a LEGO Game (probably Skywalker Saga).
>Amiibo stuff.
>Persona 5 Strikers (localized Persona 5 Scramble).
>Smash reveal.
>Something Mario-related (hoping for a Switch port of SM3DW which adds Pauline as a playable character).

That's some of the stuff I could see happening, but of course there can always be more.
 

Cosmic77

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Yeah, the ballot is done. It shouldn't be used as a reference anymore.

And to be honest, I don't Nintendo or Sakurai really needs it to see who's popular. They might not be fully aware of every popular request, but they should be able to pick one out if they really tried.
 

Wunderwaft

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{source needed}

You mean this? [source]

View attachment 265966

It was used very much =/= not going to rely on it anymore
Huh, it seems I misremembered the quote a bit.

Still, I believe the ballot won't play an important role, especially after who we got in the first fighters pass. The ballot is five years old at this point and it's information isn't a very accurate representation of what the majority of the fanbase currently want. Many games have come since then and a lot of characters gained traction in the Smash fanbase since then. IIRC the ballot had something close to 2 million votes, that's a fraction compared to the current sales of Ultimate where it reached over 17 million, the fanbase of Smash is much bigger than it was before during the Smash 4 days. I'm sure both Nintendo and Sakurai are aware of this.

I do believe we will get a character that is popular within the core fandom, but I don't believe the ballot will be the cause of the pick. It will be due to other circumstances that led to it. As I said, I think Nintendo has some semblance of an idea of what the fanbase wants, their employees browse the internet as we do and they're exposed to what the fanbase talks about. Even if you take someone unaffiliated with the Smash fandom and let him read on what the fanbase posts about on the internet he'll have an idea on who is popular within the fandom in a single day.
 

Guynamednelson

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their employees browse the internet as we do and they're exposed to what the fanbase talks about
They certainly are aware of swordfighter complaints and Yoshi committing tax fraud, but at the same time found it shocking that Banjo would be so well-received.
 

Cosmic77

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They certainly are aware of swordfighter complaints and Yoshi committing tax fraud, but at the same time found it shocking that Banjo would be so well-received.
I question the Banjo part, because fan demand is literally the only reason why Banjo got added in the first place.

That's like saying, "Woah! We added Ridley because he was a popular request, but we had no idea he would be so well-received!"
 
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