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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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The Rhythm Theif

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And despite people telling other people to face the facts, the other people still want Geno in Smash "because he's popular" and "because Sakurai said so". The Geno Support thread is literally too toxic for me to handle! One day, I told them that I just don't think it's Geno's time to shine in Smash yet, and someone reported me for trolling the thread. No joke, that actually happened to me.
 
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Droodle

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We won't know if Spirits/ATs/Mii costumes definitively deconfirm until all DLC comes out.

That said I think people tend to grasp at straws for certain characters being promoted (ie; Geno). Other then his costume not being in the DQ trailer; he really doesn't have much else going for him. Most people outside of the Geno community don't believe in Cacomallow or the Mii Costume list.

A good chunk of costumes from Smash 4 are still missing too:
- Geno
- Chocobo (also missing from DQ trailer)
- Lloyd
- Heihachi (could have came with Terry)
- Gil
- Monster Hunter

The only thing Geno has seperating him is that his costume was missing alongside DQ. But Chocobo also shares that...
You also have to remember that originally, FP 5 was going to be the end of the DLC for Ultimate. Which means that all 6 of these costumes were a) not supposed to release at all, b) were supposed to release with the 5 fighters we got originally or c) were supposed to release entirely separately. I doubt all 6 of these will be promoted as fighter's either, at most maybe 1 or 2.

Chances are that Nintendo is purposely holding back their release, if they aren't upgraded. Guess what? They've done that in the past with things like Isaac and Shadow not being confirmed as ATs till the very end. The reason for this is because these costumes being "MIA" stirs up speculation, which is good for advertisement. Of those 6 fighters, only Chocobo and Gil do not have "significant" speculation fanbases. But Geno, Lloyd, Monster Hunter, and Heihachi are all decently requested so they stir the pot a ton.
 

Evil Trapezium

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https://smashultimatespirits.com/
Go to the tab and pick random spirits.

that’s our upgraded newcomer
Oh... oh wow... uh... wow what a coincidence. The randomiser just so happened to land on Cortez. Who knew that he was in the game as a spirit already? Gosh I guess that means he'll be a character now! Funny world we live in huh?

Cortez is here.png
 

TheCJBrine

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Yeah, but it wouldn't be just Geno: Fighter Packs need music a stage, and spirits too. The question is, is Geno worth it enough to Nintendo to go through a bunch of different legal negotiations and paying multiple different parties what they'd need to to get what they need? It raises multiple questions, as it's no longer just about getting Geno, they'd have to get other things too.
The designers don’t seem like they’d be an issue if they need to be talked to, and all of SMRPG’s music was done by Yoko Shimomura (with some of the music being arrangements of Koji Kondo’s Mario music). SMRPG was also on the Wii U VC and the SNES Classic (not sure if that matters regarding music and designers though, I guess they wouldn’t need to be paid again?).
 
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The Rhythm Theif

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We won't know if Spirits/ATs/Mii costumes definitively deconfirm until all DLC comes out.

That said I think people tend to grasp at straws for certain characters being promoted (ie; Geno). Other then his costume not being in the DQ trailer; he really doesn't have much else going for him. Most people outside of the Geno community don't believe in Cacomallow or the Mii Costume list.

A good chunk of costumes from Smash 4 are still missing too:
- Geno
- Chocobo (also missing from DQ trailer)
- Lloyd
- Heihachi (could have came with Terry)
- Gil
- Monster Hunter

The only thing Geno has seperating him is that his costume was missing alongside DQ. But Chocobo also shares that...
You also have to remember that originally, FP 5 was going to be the end of the DLC for Ultimate. Which means that all 6 of these costumes were a) not supposed to release at all, b) were supposed to release with the 5 fighters we got originally or c) were supposed to release entirely separately. I doubt all 6 of these will be promoted as fighter's either, at most maybe 1 or 2.

Chances are that Nintendo is purposely holding back their release, if they aren't upgraded. Guess what? They've done that in the past with things like Isaac and Shadow not being confirmed as ATs till the very end. The reason for this is because these costumes being "MIA" stirs up speculation, which is good for advertisement. Of those 6 fighters, only Chocobo and Gil do not have "significant" speculation fanbases. But Geno, Lloyd, Monster Hunter, and Heihachi are all decently requested so they stir the pot a ton.
Wait... there was a GIL Mii Costume in Smash 4? Did that actually f**king exist?!
 

Nemuresu

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Didn't think about it until now, but I noticed a strange pattern on the returning mii costumes: everytime a batch includes them, they always come in pairs, as in: Joker only had Tails and Knuckles, Banjo had Proto Man and Zero, Terry with the Virtua Fighter guys, and Byleth only brought back the missing Mega Men.

While I still think Heihachi is a front runner as far as future DLC characters are concerned, I feel like there's a small chance that his absent costume may only be a case of Nintendo's way to operate with costumes and not because of any plans.
 

MooMew64

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The designers don’t seem like they’d be an issue if they need to be talked to, and all of SMRPG’s music was done by Yoko Shimomura (with some of the music being arrangements of Koji Kondo’s music).
It very well might be on exaggeration that it'd be difficult to get this stuff, but I think it's an interesting facet of the conversation I've yet to see be talked about.
 
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TwiceEXE

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Whenever I ask for proof that this is the case I'm always hit with speculation and conjecture. Does anyone have any definitive proof, or statement, that confirms that season 2 was something they decided later? I would really appreciate it.
I don't think there has ever been proof of that. It's mostly people just speculating due to some rumors that the first pass sold super well, so Nintendo wanted more. The Nintendo announcement tweet and Sakurai's statements in the direct certainly don't lead us to believe they were decided later.
 

The Rhythm Theif

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Didn't think about it until now, but I noticed a strange pattern on the returning mii costumes: everytime a batch includes them, they always come in pairs, as in: Joker only had Tails and Knuckles, Banjo had Proto Man and Zero, Terry with the Virtua Fighter guys, and Byleth only brought back the missing Mega Men.

While I still think Heihachi is a front runner as far as future DLC characters are concerned, I feel like there's a small chance that his absent costume may only be a case of Nintendo's way to operate with costumes and not because of any plans.
I wondered why the Heihachi costume was missing. (It was a pretty cool costume!)

Also, I notice you're supporting a SNK character for Smash as well. What a coincidence, since I want Rera (another SNK character) in Smash.
 

Diddy Kong

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Your reaction, this is FP2:

Goku
Naruto
Sora
Master Chief
Mickey Mouse
Shrek
 

AceAttorney9000

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Geez. That does seem like a huge mess. Thanks for doing all the work looking into it. You have to think such copyright issues would dissuade Nintendo on the slim chance they wanted Geno in the first place.
Well it clearly didn't dissuade them, considering that as has already been pointed out, Geno is technically already in the game, even if it's just a Spirit right now. Granted, they'd probably have to have more talks with Square to see if they're cool with a playable Geno, but any copyright issues that would've kept Geno out entirely have either already been taken care of or were never problems in the first place.

Yeah, but it wouldn't be just Geno: Fighter Packs need music a stage, and spirits too. The question is, is Geno worth it enough to Nintendo to go through a bunch of different legal negotiations and paying multiple different parties what they'd need to to get what they need? It raises multiple questions, as it's no longer just about getting Geno, they'd have to get other things too.
If getting enough Super Mario RPG material for a Spirit Board and music selection is too difficult, they can fall back on Spirits and music from Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi. It would make sense, considering the former was conceived as a Super Mario RPG sequel before branching into its own unique identity, while the latter was developed by a company that included some Super Mario RPG developers and had Geno himself cameo in one of the games.
 

Professor Pumpkaboo

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And despite people telling other people to face the facts, the other people still want Geno in Smash "because he's popular" and "because Sakurai said so". The Geno Support thread is literally too toxic for me to handle! One day, I told them that I just don't think it's Geno's time to shine in Smash yet, and someone reported me for trolling the thread. No joke, that actually happened to me.
it doesnt take much to be reported for trolling in that thread
 

Roberto zampari

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Sakurai decided what characters to be implemented in Smash Bros Ultimate?
We need another fighter ballot like the Smash Bros 4, do you know why?

This is the best way to interact to Sakurai and avoid unnecessary fighters in Ultimate...

You know, Byleth was panned in critics...
 
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Cosmic77

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I think it's kinda dumb that we're probably going to have to pay for a Rathalos Mii Costume again when it was added as a boss with a music track.

I guess it shouldn't surprise me after the Sonic and Mega Man costumes, but still. Quite a few of these Mii Costume bundles are being padded with content we had to pay for in Smash 4. I know it's not Sakurai's fault – just wish third-party companies were more generous.

And despite people telling other people to face the facts, the other people still want Geno in Smash "because he's popular" and "because Sakurai said so". The Geno Support thread is literally too toxic for me to handle! One day, I told them that I just don't think it's Geno's time to shine in Smash yet, and someone reported me for trolling the thread. No joke, that actually happened to me.
I wouldn't worry about it. The Geno thread has isolated itself from the rest of Smashboards. It's become more of a second social thread with a bunch of users with SMRPG icons than anything else.
 
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The Rhythm Theif

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Sakurai decided what characters to be implemented in Smash Bros Ultimate?
We need another fighter ballot like the Smash Bros 4, do you know why?

This is the best way to interact to Sakurai and avoid unnecessary fighters in Ultimate...
Yeah. We all know how the Sm4sh Ballot turned out...
True Story Kids!.png
 
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Goombaic

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Sakurai decided what characters to be implemented in Smash Bros Ultimate?
We need another fighter ballot like the Smash Bros 4, do you know why?

This is the best way to interact to Sakurai and avoid unnecessary fighters in Ultimate...

You know, Byleth was panned in critics...
I just want a big fan-run ballot in general to know who the fanbase wants right now because at the moment it's just a cluster**** of characters of the week.
 
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TheCJBrine

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Yeah. And I was being HONEST ABOUT IT TOO (Ultimate not being Geno's time to shine).
To be fair, the thread has faced multiple trolls before, and it’s hard not to see it as trolling when most of the time the people who jump in the support thread to say “he ain’t happening” don’t sound sincere/don’t elaborate then act flabbergasted when people argue.

Not to mention being treated as a cult and having a bunch of users bash us.
 
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AceAttorney9000

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To be fair, the thread has faced multiple trolls before, and it’s hard not to see it as trolling when most of the time the people who jump in the support thread to say “he ain’t happening” don’t sound sincere/don’t elaborate then act flabbergasted when people argue.
This.

I could hop over to the Reimu support thread right now and start posting about how Touhou will never have any material in Smash, let alone playable characters (this isn't my actual opinion, just a hypothetical example). The people who frequent that thread would be pissed at me too, and rightly so.
 

Ramen Tengoku

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Sakurai decided what characters to be implemented in Smash Bros Ultimate?
We need another fighter ballot like the Smash Bros 4, do you know why?

This is the best way to interact to Sakurai and avoid unnecessary fighters in Ultimate...

You know, Byleth was panned in critics...
I mean... the original ballot never stopped the equally panned (and potentially even moreseo) Corrin, so...
 
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Cosmic77

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Smash 4 proved to me why we don't need a second ballot. People are gonna go berserk when the final character gets revealed and it's not who they want.

Sakurai isn't dumb though. He didn't need a ballot to tell him Ridley and K. Rool were popular requests, and if he did, then he hasn't been paying much attention to Smash speculation.
 

Droodle

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And despite people telling other people to face the facts, the other people still want Geno in Smash "because he's popular" and "because Sakurai said so". The Geno Support thread is literally too toxic for me to handle! One day, I told them that I just don't think it's Geno's time to shine in Smash yet, and someone reported me for trolling the thread. No joke, that actually happened to me.
I quit replying to the thread just last week, despite me (slightly) wanting Geno.

Some people in their support such outlandish theories that it makes me laugh. It seems like as long as a theory supports Geno, no matter how far-fetched it is, they decide to put all their chips on it. Even when evidence grows against that thing being "true", they won't let it go until it's been definitively disconfirmed. A lot of them still support the Cacomallow costumes (happened 4 months ago), the Mii costume list (happened in July), and the music take-downs (happened in May). All of these things have several points against them by this point (although I guess it could still be true).

When you call them out on some of their outlandish theories. They always say the same thing too, "Geno fans are always the butt of the joke in the Smash fanbase".

The straw that broke the camel's back for me was when I (along with others) disagreed with F**m*n's terrible theory of "Sora being ineligible for Smash because he lacks Nintendo relevance, therefore Geno is more likely because Sora is Geno's primary competitor". Some people complained because I was criticizing a theory that supports Geno. It was then I realized that it's probably better to leave them to themselves.

Most of the time, when the thread is talking about SMRPG/Geno or Smash in general, it's fine and I enjoy it. But when the conversations shifts to Geno in Smash/theorycrafting; it becomes a huge circlejerk about the same talking points over and over again.
 

Nemuresu

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Smash 4 proved to me why we don't need a second ballot. People are gonna go berserk when the final character gets revealed and it's not who they want.

Sakurai isn't dumb though. He didn't need a ballot to tell him Ridley and K. Rool were popular requests, and if he did, then he hasn't been paying much attention to Smash speculation.
Actually, he most likely did.

When talking about the Castlevania characters and all the veterans, he quoted the Ballot as the reason why they were included to begin with. So it's pretty likely that both Ridley and K. Rool had the same luck.
 

MooMew64

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Smash 4 proved to me why we don't need a second ballot. People are gonna go berserk when the final character gets revealed and it's not who they want.

Sakurai isn't dumb though. He didn't need a ballot to tell him Ridley and K. Rool were popular requests, and if he did, then he hasn't been paying much attention to Smash speculation.
I...Highly doubt he does, TBH.

We're really not that big.
 
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Roberto zampari

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Smash 4 proved to me why we don't need a second ballot. People are gonna go berserk when the final character gets revealed and it's not who they want.

Sakurai isn't dumb though. He didn't need a ballot to tell him Ridley and K. Rool were popular requests, and if he did, then he hasn't been paying much attention to Smash speculation.
What everyone expect? Bayonetta? Mai Shiranui?
 

The Rhythm Theif

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I quit replying to the thread just last week, despite me (slightly) wanting Geno.

Some people in their support such outlandish theories that it makes me laugh. It seems like as long as a theory supports Geno, no matter how far-fetched it is, they decide to put all their chips on it. Even when evidence grows against that thing being "true", they won't let it go until it's been definitively disconfirmed. A lot of them still support the Cacomallow costumes (happened 4 months ago), the Mii costume list (happened in July), and the music take-downs (happened in May). All of these things have several points against them by this point (although I guess it could still be true).

When you call them out on some of their outlandish theories. They always say the same thing too, "Geno fans are always the butt of the joke in the Smash fanbase".

The straw that broke the camel's back for me was when I (along with others) disagreed with F**m*n's terrible theory of "Sora being ineligible for Smash because he lacks Nintendo relevance, therefore Geno is more likely because Sora is Geno's primary competitor". Some people complained because I was criticizing a theory that supports Geno. It was then I realized that it's probably better to leave them to themselves.

Most of the time, when the thread is talking about SMRPG/Geno or Smash in general, it's fine and I enjoy it. But when the conversations shifts to Geno in Smash/theorycrafting; it becomes a huge circlejerk about the same talking points over and over again.
Do you want to know what's worse? The Geno in Smash/theory crafting thing is basically all the Geno Supporters talk about as they rarely talk about Super Mario RPG! It just makes me Pokémon anime Phione levels of angry!
 
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Cutie Gwen

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I quit replying to the thread just last week, despite me (slightly) wanting Geno.

Some people in their support such outlandish theories that it makes me laugh. It seems like as long as a theory supports Geno, no matter how far-fetched it is, they decide to put all their chips on it. Even when evidence grows against that thing being "true", they won't let it go until it's been definitively disconfirmed. A lot of them still support the Cacomallow costumes (happened 4 months ago), the Mii costume list (happened in July), and the music take-downs (happened in May). All of these things have several points against them by this point (although I guess it could still be true).

When you call them out on some of their outlandish theories. They always say the same thing too, "Geno fans are always the butt of the joke in the Smash fanbase".

The straw that broke the camel's back for me was when I (along with others) disagreed with F**m*n's terrible theory of "Sora being ineligible for Smash because he lacks Nintendo relevance, therefore Geno is more likely because Sora is Geno's primary competitor". Some people complained because I was criticizing a theory that supports Geno. It was then I realized that it's probably better to leave them to themselves.

Most of the time, when the thread is talking about SMRPG/Geno or Smash in general, it's fine and I enjoy it. But when the conversations shifts to Geno in Smash/theorycrafting; it becomes a huge circlejerk about the same talking points over and over again.
People get stupidly defensive el El Hormano Gordo and although the guy's gotten death threats the cultists accuse anyone who's been even slightly negative of being responsible for it, don't even understand why they think he's legit as people here memed him before he got kicked out of Sabi's server
 

TheCJBrine

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I quit replying to the thread just last week, despite me (slightly) wanting Geno.

Some people in their support such outlandish theories that it makes me laugh. It seems like as long as a theory supports Geno, no matter how far-fetched it is, they decide to put all their chips on it. Even when evidence grows against that thing being "true", they won't let it go until it's been definitively disconfirmed. A lot of them still support the Cacomallow costumes (happened 4 months ago), the Mii costume list (happened in July), and the music take-downs (happened in May). All of these things have several points against them by this point (although I guess it could still be true).

When you call them out on some of their outlandish theories. They always say the same thing too, "Geno fans are always the butt of the joke in the Smash fanbase".

The straw that broke the camel's back for me was when I (along with others) disagreed with F**m*n's terrible theory of "Sora being ineligible for Smash because he lacks Nintendo relevance, therefore Geno is more likely because Sora is Geno's primary competitor". Some people complained because I was criticizing a theory that supports Geno. It was then I realized that it's probably better to leave them to themselves.

Most of the time, when the thread is talking about SMRPG/Geno or Smash in general, it's fine and I enjoy it. But when the conversations shifts to Geno in Smash/theorycrafting; it becomes a huge circlejerk about the same talking points over and over again.
I think the Mii stuff could still happen, probably early plans or something if true. Cacomallow could end up true if real, as it came out in October or something and the character packs likely take some months to nearly a year, but meh.

It’s just speculation, I don’t see the problem with theories. Aside from all speculation likely leading to disappointment and basically being pointless aside from being a social activity on here I guess.

Fatman himself has realized he could be wrong and doesn’t care if he is, no biggie. Some of the other users can be a bit assertive, but they seem cool to me in general. I think I commented on what Fatman said about Sora and how I thought Nintendo-relevance didn’t matter much, and no one was mad at me, though I didn’t quote him directly. Maybe it was how I worded it.

It would be nice to talk about more SMRPG stuff directly, though, but tbh I’m not sure what to talk about myself without bringing up old topics, and I guess some of the other dudes may feel like they’ve exhausted on topics...*shrug* Maybe SMRPG experiences or something, idk. I imagine most people in the thread fear discussing theories in this one and being crapped on...but idk.
 
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Droodle

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Do you want to know what's worse? The Geno in Smash/theory crafting thing is basically all the Geno Supporters talk about as they rarely talk about Super Mario RPG! It just makes me Pokémon anime Phione levels of angry!
Nah, I'd still disagree with that. There's still a good bit of SMRPG discussion mixed in with all the Geno in Smash nonsense. The problem is that due to the thread basically being a Newcomer Speculation Thread 2 (featuring Geno), the SMRPG discussion becomes infrequent thanks to the amount of Waluigi/Lloyd/Doomguy/Crash/Dante discussion.
 

Cosmic77

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Actually, he most likely did.

When talking about the Castlevania characters and all the veterans, he quoted the Ballot as the reason why they were included to begin with. So it's pretty likely that both Ridley and K. Rool had the same luck.
He made a comment shortly after Smash Wii U released explaining why Ridley wasn't playable, so we at least know he was aware of Ridley's popularity beforehand. With that in mind, he should've known K. Rool was popular too, especially since Ridley was mostly popular in NA. K. Rool had a lot of supporters in every region, so his popularity should've been easier to pick up on then Ridley's. Then there's also his comment about Geno always getting a lot of requests, suggesting he knew Geno was a popular character in previous Smash games.

Sakurai knows more than people give him credit for. Even outside new characters, there's lots of other things he's acknowledged that he wouldn't have known unless he listened to what fans were saying, such as Ganondorf's sword and "too many FE/sword characters."
 

Droodle

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I think the Mii stuff could still happen, probably early plans or something if true. Cacomallow could end up true if real, as it came out in October or something and the character packs likely take some months to nearly a year, but meh.

It’s just speculation, I don’t see the problem with theories. Aside from all speculation likely leading to disappointment and basically being pointless aside from being a social activity on here I guess.

Fatman himself has realized he could be wrong and doesn’t care if he is, no biggie. Some of the other users can be a bit...assertive, but they seem cool to me in general. I think I commented on what Fatman said about Sora and how I thought Nintendo-relevance didn’t matter much, and no one was mad at me, though I didn’t quote him directly. Maybe it was how I worded it.

It would be nice to talk about more SMRPG stuff directly, though, but tbh I’m not sure what to talk about myself without bringing up old topics, and I guess some of the other dudes may feel like they’ve exhausted on topics...*shrug*
If you think those things are likely, that's fine. But the problem lies on goalpost moving; at this point in time, all of those things have a reasonable amount of doubt in them. Enough for an average person to dismiss them even; there's a reason why everyone EXCEPT the Geno thread doesn't talk about it. Yet, a ton of people on there get upset when an outsider disagrees with them on Geno's chances.

Again, if you think Geno's likely. That's fine.

But if you go full:
tumblr_o16n2kBlpX1ta3qyvo1_1280.jpg

trying to justify his inclusion, then it just ends up being annoying most of the time.
 

Nemuresu

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He made a comment shortly after Smash Wii U released explaining why Ridley wasn't playable, so we at least know he was aware of Ridley's popularity beforehand. With that in mind, he should've known K. Rool was popular too, especially since Ridley was mostly popular in NA. K. Rool had a lot of supporters in every region, so his popularity should've been easier to pick up on then Ridley's. Then there's also his comment about Geno always getting a lot of requests, suggesting he knew Geno was a popular character in previous Smash games.

Sakurai knows more than people give him credit for. Even outside new characters, there's lots of other things he's acknowledged that he wouldn't have known unless he listened to what fans were saying, such as Ganondorf's sword and "too many FE/sword characters."
Fair enough. I didn't remember that part of Ridley's rejection, so thanks for bringing it up.
 

CapitaineCrash

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Sakurai also known about Sans popularity, he literally said after his announcement "We added a costume for Sans from Undertale, who was a popular request". Undertale released a month before the ballot closed, so he probably knows his popularity not really because of the ballot.
 
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