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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Door Key Pig

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Probably because if any character were to be the first Western character, it should be the face of the biggest game in the entire world.
I mean, the first third party character ever introduced to Smash was Snake, a famous franchise, sure, but not quite the most important non-Nintendo game character ever that could have been added. Hell, wasn't he added cause Sakurai was friends with Kojima and he requested his inclusion?
 

KirbyWorshipper2465

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Hot take but the only reason we doubt Western third parties being playable is because we just don't have one yet. The same way that people doubted the same third-party publisher getting two reps, or third party echoes. I'm sure it's not as much of an issue as we make it out to be.
Just as an aside I find it funny that the "Western third party" issue isn't brought up whenever Steve's chances in Smash are discussed.
Yeah, though I just don't get why they're having cold feet over this, is all. The closest we got so far to fighting a Western third party is Shovel Knight as an AT. We're so close that we can almost taste it.

Double-standards, many people think Steve is a shoo-in just because Minecraft is a huge seller property that's known in Japan. Even then, just popularity isn't enough as a deciding factor.
 

Guynamednelson

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Even then, just popularity isn't enough as a deciding factor.
After all, Sakurai considered Heihachi before Pac-Man, and the reason why Heihachi isn't playable is solely failing to make him work. Not because Pac-Man is more iconic. Not because Heihachi is more associated with Playstation, and for that matter, is in Playstation All-Stars.
 

osby

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isnt that the only request someone ever actually gave sakurai so far
Arguably. Corrin was also picked by other members of the development team and Sakurai only accepted adding them later.
 

Will

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Arguably. Corrin was also picked by other members of the development team and Sakurai only accepted adding them later.
ok on second thought maybe no more favors
 

Captain Shades

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isnt that the only request someone ever actually gave sakurai so far
Pac-Man was chosen by Miyamoto for Brawl, if that counts. I know Pac-Man wasn’t in Brawl, but I would guess that the request still lingered.

I mean, the first third party character ever introduced to Smash was Snake, a famous franchise, sure, but not quite the most important non-Nintendo game character ever that could have been added. Hell, wasn't he added cause Sakurai was friends with Kojima and he requested his inclusion?
To be fair, Metal Gear was probably the biggest at the time as it just came off it’s high period of the PS1 and PS2 era, where it was consistently creating classics. Other than Sonic and Pac-Man, the other legendary franchises were either dead, dwindling in popularity, or didn’t exist, so the choice made sense.

Double-standards, many people think Steve is a shoo-in just because Minecraft is a huge seller property that's known in Japan. Even then, just popularity isn't enough as a deciding factor.
It’s also do to the constant rumor of a Microsoft rep joining, which would have to be Western. Steve is just the most likely as Minecraft has many fans at Nintendo and is popular in Japan.
 

RileyXY1

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This is probably a mistake. This does not mean that EA is getting a character in Ultimate.
 

Izanagi97

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I would laugh if he runs slower than PP
I mean Ryu already runs slower than Plant (Plant is 1.72, Ryu is 1.6). 10% slower than Ryu would be a run speed of around 1.4545 which is between Zelda and Isabelle in terms of run speed.

http://boards.4channel.org/v/thread/463962417#p463964642
Why would a EA Switch game ad should be adverting Super Smash Bros. Ultimate?
Is this the Unravel thing or something else, it's probably ads being screwy again
 

andree123

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This is probably a mistake. This does not mean that EA is getting a character in Ultimate.
I've thought about that too, but I think that Unravel 2 switch ad was a placeholder advertisement video for smash ultimate DLC content.
 

thisjustin2001

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"How dare people use precedent from past games to make educated guesses!"
But it's not unprecedented. Robin and Lucina were chosen over Chrom to represent Awakening. So no, it's not using precedent to make an educated guess. It's making a fan rule that has literally never existed. Pikachu was the chosen character to represent Pokemon, and that was in the very first Smash game! Having to have the main character of a franchise as the first rep in Smash Bros was literally never unprecedented at any point in time. I hope this makes you understand what I'm trying to say a bit better.
 

Will

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But it's not unprecedented. Robin and Lucina were chosen over Chrom to represent Awakening. So no, it's not using precedent to make an educated guess. It's making a fan rule that has literally never existed. Pikachu was the chosen character to represent Pokemon, and that was in the very first Smash game! Having to have the main character of a franchise as the first rep in Smash Bros was literally never unprecedented at any point in time. I hope this makes you understand what I'm trying to say a bit better.
reminder that it could've been leif instead of marth

then we'd actually get a real translation of thracia 776 :secretkpop:
 

Will

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Characters don't have to be "iconic" in order to get in.
the definition of "iconic" seems super subjective too because everyone has their own different opinion on whose iconic and who isnt
 

Robdelia

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Characters don't have to be "iconic" in order to get in.
I feel like this is inevitably going to wrap around to Erdrick and his chances, and yes I do agree that iconicity (god I hope that's a real word) doesn't play as big of a factor as we think. We got Richter Belmont for crying out loud.
Buuuuuutttt... I think DLC is a different beast entirely. Yes, we got Corrin as DLC. But that's because of their interesting moveset that no other character could do. They sold us on Corrin because they had a cool moveset, the same way they sold us on Piranha Plant. Meanwhile, I look at Erdrick, a character who is more unknown outside of Japan than Corrin was before their DLC, and I think to myself "Why would they pick him?" The only argument is that he's the most popular protag in Dragon Quest, and only popular in Japan. I'm sure Western polls would be split between 11 and 8's protag. But popularity isn't everyting. Sakurai has commented that he factors in how unique a character is alongside popularity. Cloud got in not just because he is quite frankly one of the most popular JRPG protags of all time and known to audiences both east and west, but because the limit system was a unique way to translate the turn-based combat of Final Fantasy through a character who's game introduced the name "Limit Break."
What does Erdrick bring to the table that no other character can do? Be it his body type like Piranha Plant, or his gimmick like Joker being a 2-in-1 character with Arsene? Or Ryu and his Street Fighter inputs? How do you translate the simple, turn-based combat of Dragon Quest into Smash through a protag like him when Cloud already does a damn fine job at it?
This isn't even discussing the PR nightmare that would be trying to convince casual Smash fans outside of Japan to drop $6 on him if he really has nothing interesting going on and is unknown to the general audiences. It'd be like if Melee made you pay $10 to unlock Marth and Roy.
Then again I feel like this image kinda sums up what I think might happen come E3:
erdrick.jpg
 
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Dalek_Kolt

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The one good thing (to me at least) that may come out out of Erdrick getting put in Smash is people modding Crono over him.
Then again, it's been a while and I've yet to see any Jotaro or Batman Joker mods over Joker...
 

Will

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Quality mods will probably take a bit longer.
doesn't nintendo kill you and your online interactivity if you're caught with mods too? :bobomb: wii homebrew didnt really have that much of a risk except those brawl days where maybe once a week you'd find that hacker who plays as wario man or giga bowser
 

Deathcarter

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If Ness/Marth/Roy/Shulk prove anything its that obscurity in the West is hardly a death sentence for a Smash character. Erdrick's potential appeal over here is likely hurt more by the fact that we have seven other characters with similar builds who have the exact same "hero" schtick that he does (i.e. Link and all the non-Robin FE characters) than the fact that few people here know who he is.
 

Captain Shades

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I feel like this is inevitably going to wrap around to Erdrick and his chances, and yes I do agree that iconicity (god I hope that's a real word) doesn't play as big of a factor as we think. We got Richter Belmont for crying out loud.
Not to be that guy, but Richter was literally the main character of the biggest changing point in Castlevania’s history with Symphony of the Night being the transition to a Metroidvania. The idea that he was a nobody who isn’t iconic isn’t correct, it’s just that Nintendo fans are out of the loop on the PlayStation titles. Again, we label Castlevania under Metroidvania, a genre it co-founded, but it was Richter’s game that turned Castlevania into one.

the definition of "iconic" seems super subjective too because everyone has their own different opinion on whose iconic and who isnt
I feel iconic falls into a three categories when it comes to Smash, the top two I look at the most to deem worthy of being a character if they are 3rd party.

1) Is the character known by the non-gaming general public? - If, lets say my mom, who rarely if ever plays video games, can name a character or what franchise they are from, then they definitely would be worthy of a spot. Basically the rule is, can people out of the loop on video games know who the character or franchise is.

Examples of Number 1 would be Pac-Man and Sonic as pretty much everyone knows them. Going over our list of potential DLC, the only 1 that would fit this category would be Steve as I’m sure everyone would at least guess Minecraft when shown an image of him, meaning MC has a strong hold on the general market, not just gaming.

2) Is the character known by the general gaming community? This seems more broad, but here’s what I mean. I believe that if a character can be recognized by the four parties (Nintendo, PC, XBOX, and PlayStation) then they have a high chance to make it in Smash.

Examples, well everyone else is an example as Castlevania and Mega Man are staple retro franchises, Metal Gear and FF7 practically defines the N64 and PS1 era, Bayonetta was a feminist (hmm.. Anita ... hmm..) talking point and somewhat mascot of the hack and slash genre along with DMC, Persona 5 is one of the most revolutionary games of the decade, and Street Fighter is the fighting game tournament scene.

3) Is the character known by Nintendo fans? This is the weakest category for 3rd party to me as it’s basically defines the whole fan rule at this point. What the category boils down to is characters and franchises that only Nintendo fans really seem interested in. I feel this one is weak due to it not having any broad appeal to get anyone into Smash as you’re only pleasing a small user base.
 

Izanagi97

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I feel like this is inevitably going to wrap around to Erdrick and his chances, and yes I do agree that iconicity (god I hope that's a real word) doesn't play as big of a factor as we think. We got Richter Belmont for crying out loud.
Buuuuuutttt... I think DLC is a different beast entirely. Yes, we got Corrin as DLC. But that's because of their interesting moveset that no other character could do. They sold us on Corrin because they had a cool moveset, the same way they sold us on Piranha Plant. Meanwhile, I look at Erdrick, a character who is more unknown outside of Japan than Corrin was before their DLC, and I think to myself "Why would they pick him?" The only argument is that he's the most popular protag in Dragon Quest, and only popular in Japan. I'm sure Western polls would be split between 11 and 8's protag. But popularity isn't everyting. Sakurai has commented that he factors in how unique a character is alongside popularity. Cloud got in not just because he is quite frankly one of the most popular JRPG protags of all time and known to audiences both east and west, but because the limit system was a unique way to translate the turn-based combat of Final Fantasy through a character who's game introduced the name "Limit Break."
What does Erdrick bring to the table that no other character can do? Be it his body type like Piranha Plant, or his gimmick like Joker being a 2-in-1 character with Arsene? Or Ryu and his Street Fighter inputs? How do you translate the simple, turn-based combat of Dragon Quest into Smash through a protag like him when Cloud already does a damn fine job at it?
This isn't even discussing the PR nightmare that would be trying to convince casual Smash fans outside of Japan to drop $6 on him if he really has nothing interesting going on and is unknown to the general audiences. It'd be like if Melee made you pay $10 to unlock Marth and Roy.
Then again I feel like this image kinda sums up what I think might happen come E3: View attachment 225052
Yeah, I've been reading a ton of reasons why I don't think Erdrick is in and they boil down to the possibility of Erdrick being leakbait (do you seriously think Square would let something leak half a year early? Not even Pokemon is that bad and they suck with leaks, much less Square Enix, who actively fights leaks) and how an Erdrick reveal at E3 would be stupid marketing since the Direct would be airing when the target audience for Erdrick (Japan) would be asleep while the E3 audience (which is pretty Western focused) would have a mixed reception to Erdrick (at best, they would be alright; at worst, they would accuse Nintendo of using Smash to advertise DQ in the West) compared to the extreme excitement of the Japanese audience. Then again, this stuff was mostly from me reading a different Newcomer thread and Nintendo is no stranger to making incredibly stupid Marketing and Business decisions (Ken and Incineroar being the last base roster reveals and SMM2 having no online co-op comes to mind for recent stuff)
 
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Yeah, I've been reading a ton of reasons why I don't think Erdrick is in and they boil down to the possibility of Erdrick being leakbait (do you seriously think Square would let something leak half a year early? Not even Pokemon is that bad and they suck with leaks, much less Square Enix, who actively fights leaks) and how an Erdrick reveal at E3 would be stupid marketing since the Direct would be airing when the target audience for Erdrick (Japan) would be asleep while the E3 audience (which is pretty Western focused) would have a mixed reception to Erdrick (at best, they would be alright; at worst, they would accuse Nintendo of using Smash to advertise DQ in the West) compared to the extreme excitement of the Japanese audience. Then again, this stuff was mostly from me reading a different Newcomer thread and Nintendo is no stranger to making incredibly stupid Marketing and Business decisions (Ken and Incineroar being the last base roster reveals and SMM2 having no online co-op comes to mind for recent stuff)
Blufever leaks were a thing with FFXIV, and those were released last year and cover content up to the next expansion. While the leakers don't guarantee Erdrick, no company is immune to leaks and a bad one could've happened.

Also, please stop fear mongering with ridiculous scenarios regarding the reaction to a possible DQ rep. Its just a horrible attitude to have regarding a specific pick you don't care/like.
 
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Will

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Yeah, I've been reading a ton of reasons why I don't think Erdrick is in and they boil down to the possibility of Erdrick being leakbait (do you seriously think Square would let something leak half a year early? Not even Pokemon is that bad and they suck with leaks, much less Square Enix, who actively fights leaks) and how an Erdrick reveal at E3 would be stupid marketing since the Direct would be airing when the target audience for Erdrick (Japan) would be asleep while the E3 audience (which is pretty Western focused) would have a mixed reception to Erdrick (at best, they would be alright; at worst, they would accuse Nintendo of using Smash to advertise DQ in the West) compared to the extreme excitement of the Japanese audience. Then again, this stuff was mostly from me reading a different Newcomer thread and Nintendo is no stranger to making incredibly stupid Marketing and Business decisions (Ken and Incineroar being the last base roster reveals and SMM2 having no online co-op comes to mind for recent stuff)
dude im pretty sure everyone gave 0 ****s when palutena was revealed at E3 2014 im sure they could handle erdrick 5 years later
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Ness wasn't exactly obscure in the West. Maybe you meant Lucas?

But it also proved base roster or Veteran DLC is a lot easier to work with. Also, Lucas, Marth, and Roy almost didn't make it into their respective games in some way(Marth and Roy were nearly Japan-only and Lucas almost didn't make in as is).

There's no extra fees to get these characters. They're 1st party. 3rd parties require extra money. That means that they're spending a lot of cash and investing in a character they are sure that'll sell. Erdrikc is a virtual unknown in the West. That's a pretty big deal for sales, since worldwide is the focus of the game.

Besides, for the base game, Smash can have obscure/lesser known options because it's already full of iconic characters and is easy to sell. DLC is a different story and shouldn't be treated like the same thing. Things aren't that simple, after all.
 

Knight Dude

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Not to be that guy, but Richter was literally the main character of the biggest changing point in Castlevania’s history with Symphony of the Night being the transition to a Metroidvania. The idea that he was a nobody who isn’t iconic isn’t correct, it’s just that Nintendo fans are out of the loop on the PlayStation titles. Again, we label Castlevania under Metroidvania, a genre it co-founded, but it was Richter’s game that turned Castlevania into one.
Richter was in Rondo of Blood/Dracula X first. SotN was more so Alucard's game, but yeah, Richter was in it, and he was in the "What is a Man?" meme. I think CV2 was what started the Vania part in MetroidVania, but obviously SotN's the one to do it well.

That's how I knew of him beforehand despite not being a huge Castlevania fan, he's the other Belmont that's not Simon or Julius that I could name off the top of my head.

Whether or not Erdrick is iconic enough I don't really care. Unless the dude does something interesting, I'd rather just get his reveal done and over with so I can see if Ryu Hayabusa or a Mishima gets in. Or someone I didn't even think about turns out to be really sick. Or if a franchise like Mega Man or Sonic can get a 2nd character down the line.
 

Izanagi97

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Blufever leaks were a thing with FFXIV, and those were released last year and cover content up to the next expansion. While the leakers don't guarantee Erdrick, no company is immune to leaks and a bad one could've happened.

Also, please stop fear mongering with ridiculous scenarios regarding the reaction to a possible DQ rep. Its just a horrible attitude to have regarding a specific pick you don't care/like.
I don't think I'm fear mongering, I'm just saying that it would make more sense to reveal a DQ rep in a later direct when the target audience is actually awake (someone compared it to if they revealed Ridley at TGS, it would be completely missing your target audience). Then again, the whole "Erdrick at E3 would be bad marketing" angle is shaky to begin with given Nintendo is no stranger to questionable marketing decisions (SMM2's co-op stuff being the latest one) and it's why I find the "Erdrick is leakbait" angle more believable even though it's a 50/50 chance.
 

Will

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Richter was in Rondo of Blood/Dracula X first. SotN was more so Alucard's game, but yeah, Richter was in it, and he was in the "What is a Man?" meme. I think CV2 was what started the Vania part in MetroidVania, but obviously SotN's the one to do it well.
Richter is pretty important to Castlevania lore-wise because he's basically known as "the one who ****ed up". Honestly I was surprised it wasn't Trevor who got the Echo slot because he's way more popular. Dude has his own damn Netflix series. Richter's also pretty popular though, but I think Americans know more Castlevania 3 than Symphony of the Night or the PSP remake.

Whether or not Erdrick is iconic enough I don't really care. Unless the dude does something interesting, I'd rather just get his reveal done and over with
Back at it again with lore influence. Funnily enough, it involves the newest Dragon Quest. It's getting a port on Switch, wondering if I should bother.
 
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Knight Dude

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A few people seem fairly confident that 2 characters might be revealed at E3, given most of the E3's starting with Mega Man/Villager had at least 2 new fighters.

Personally, I'm trying to keep my expectations low, and I'm assuming only one will get shown off. What do you guys think?

Richter is pretty important to Castlevania lore-wise because he's basically known as "the one who ****ed up". Honestly I was surprised it wasn't Trevor who got the Echo slot because he's way more popular. Dude has his own damn Netflix series. Richter's also pretty popular though, but I think Americans know more Castlevania 3 than Symphony of the Night or the PSP remake.


Back at it again with lore influence. Funnily enough, it involves the newest Dragon Quest. It's getting a port on Switch, wondering if I should bother.
Yeah, I heard he was the one who ****ed up so that the Belmonts couldn't use the whip.

I meant more so with Erdrick's moveset, I don't know how specific tricks he could pull out to make him cool.
 
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Will

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A few people seem fairly confident that 2 characters might be revealed at E3, given most of the E3's starting with Mega Man/Villager had at least 2 new fighters.

Personally, I'm trying to keep my expectations low, and I'm assuming only one will get shown off. What do you guys think?
E3 2014 had Palutena and the Miis I think, so it's all possible if the first one was released like, the day of or something. And then the second one was just the teaser for the one after with some dubious hint or just a ****ing render.
 

Knight Dude

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E3 2014 had Palutena and the Miis I think, so it's all possible if the first one was released like, the day of or something. And then the second one was just the teaser for the one after with some dubious hint or just a ****ing render.
I thought Pac-Man was around the same as Palutena? Or was that 3 characters at that E3 then?

Now that I think of it, Mega Man and Villager were followed up with Wii-Fit Trainer that same E3.
 

Will

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I thought Pac-Man was around the same as Palutena? Or was that 3 characters at that E3 then?

Now that I think of it, Mega Man and Villager were followed up with Wii-Fit Trainer that same E3.
I know PAC was at E3 but I remember someone saying he was shown off behind closed doors before the show.
 
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