Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Deleted member]

I don't think I'm fear mongering, I'm just saying that it would make more sense to reveal a DQ rep in a later direct when the target audience is actually awake (someone compared it to if they revealed Ridley at TGS, it would be completely missing your target audience). Then again, the whole "Erdrick at E3 would be bad marketing" angle is shaky to begin with given Nintendo is no stranger to questionable marketing decisions (SMM2's co-op stuff being the latest one) and it's why I find the "Erdrick is leakbait" angle more believable even though it's a 50/50 chance.

Pretty much you are fear mongering by having a worst case scenario for Erdrick based on overblowing the reactions. Plus Nintendo fans are no stranger to characters that are not very well known, if the trailer and the character looks fun to play then most of the people wont really care about knowing the character or not apart from people that take smash way too seriously.

Honestly you can throw the leakbait argument as much as you want but ultimately it wont make the character disappear if its effectively in.

 

[osby]

Yeah, this whole "Erdrick in E3 would cause a riot" thing is kinda getting ridiculous. Knee-jerk reactions to the characters aren't THAT important. I've seen a lot of sensible characters picks getting looked down upon because apparently they wouldn't make certain streamers break their desks. Nintendo cares about sales, not how much some people overreact.

And while I'm neutral, I'm getting serious Incineroar flashbacks from Erdrick being supposedly leakbait.

 

[Idon]

Daily reminder that Palutena got announced at E3 at the height of Sakuraibias hate.

Guess what, casuals, the vast majority of the fanbase, don't give a ****.

 

[Ben Holt]

Pac-Man and Mii Fighters were also announced at that E3, and those were major additions.
I think we're getting two DLC fighters minimum at E3 simply because:
1. It's E3, and we often get multiple fighters announced.
2. The time since we've had a new character reveal is half a year, and with Smash 4, the only time we didn't know about the next DLC fighter was from Lucas, Roy, and Ryu to Cloud. And Cloud was arguably the biggest addition since Sonic.
3. It's confirmed that the team has been working on multiple fighters at once, specifically DLC 2 and 3.

So my official E3 prediction for Smash DLC is the reveal and immediate release of Erdrick and the reveal and release date of Banjo-Kazooie.

 

[thisjustin2001]

If Ness/Marth/Roy/Shulk prove anything its that obscurity in the West is hardly a death sentence for a Smash character. Erdrick's potential appeal over here is likely hurt more by the fact that we have seven other characters with similar builds who have the exact same "hero" schtick that he does (i.e. Link and all the non-Robin FE characters) than the fact that few people here know who he is.

All those guys are base game characters, though. DLC is entirely different. If you don't like/care about a base game character, that doesn't matter because they're bundled with the game. If you don't like/care about a DLC fighter, you can choose to not buy it. If the entire American/European (outside of some really hardcore Smash/DQ fans) players collectively decide to not buy the fighter, that'll hurt Nintendo financially and wouldn't make any business sense.

 

[osby]

All those guys are base game characters, though. DLC is entirely different. If you don't like/care about a base game character, that doesn't matter because they're bundled with the game. If you don't like/care about a DLC fighter, you can choose to not buy it. If the entire American/European (outside of some really hardcore Smash/DQ fans) players collectively decide to not buy the fighter, that'll hurt Nintendo financially and wouldn't make any business sense.

Okay, but

1. Erdrick is still more well-knows than Joker
2. People are still going to buy the character if it's cool enough
3. Not revealing him in E3 won't change the reaction

 

[Nquoid]

But it's not unprecedented. Robin and Lucina were chosen over Chrom to represent Awakening. So no, it's not using precedent to make an educated guess. It's making a fan rule that has literally never existed. Pikachu was the chosen character to represent Pokemon, and that was in the very first Smash game! Having to have the main character of a franchise as the first rep in Smash Bros was literally never unprecedented at any point in time. I hope this makes you understand what I'm trying to say a bit better.

But this was never my argument? My argument was that the FIRST playable representative from every single franchise, aside from Pikachu, was the main playable character/player avatar.

In the case of Robin, Marth was the first Fire Emblem rep, so they could go more obscure later on. And Robin is the avatar you design and name, which in the course of the argument I'm making makes Frisk more likely to be the character chosen over Sans.

I'd have to be real ignorant to claim we don't have non-iconic characters in the game. But when it comes to introducing a franchise, Sakurai tends to go for the obvious picks.

 

[thisjustin2001]

But this was never my argument? My argument was that the FIRST playable representative from every single franchise, aside from Pikachu, was the main playable character/player avatar.

In the case of Robin, that is the avatar you design and name, which in the course of the argument I'm making makes Frisk more likely to be the character chosen over Sans.

I'd have to be real ignorant to claim we don't have non-iconic characters in the game. But when it comes to introducing a franchise, Sakurai tends to go for the obvious picks.

Pikachu being the first character for Pokemon means there's precedent for not always adding the main character/playable avatar first. Pikachu was chosen to represent Pokemon because he's worlds more iconic AND would please fans way more than Red does. So, I don't understand why they couldn't add Sans as the rep for Undertale. He's way more iconic/well known, and way more wanted than Frisk.

Usually when people make up fan rules, it's on the basis of something being unprecedented, meaning to them, that it's impossible and will never happen. This fan rule though, makes no sense to me, because it was broken from the very first game! Also, if Sakurai wants to a character to be added, he's gonna add them. He's not gonna be like "Oh crap! *facepalms* Besides Pikachu, I've never added a character that's neither the central character nor the playable avatar as the first representative of a franchise, therefore I cannot allow myself to add Sans into Smash.".

 

[Nquoid]

Pikachu being the first character for Pokemon means there's precedent for not always adding the main character/playable avatar first. Pikachu was chosen to represent Pokemon because he's worlds more iconic AND would please fans way more than Red does. So, I don't understand why they couldn't add Sans as the rep for Undertale. He's way more iconic/well known, and way more wanted than Frisk.

By the time Smash Bros came out in January 1999, Pokemon Yellow had been out for 4 months and the anime had been running since April 1997. They are 100% an exception, but I'd also say they're exception that proves the rule. And Sans is not Pikachu. I love him but Pikachu is the face of the biggest media franchise ever. When Undertale: Sans Edition comes out I will gladly change my tune.

Usually when people make up fan rules, it's on the basis of something being unprecedented, meaning to them, that it's impossible and will never happen. This fan rule though, makes no sense to me, because it was broken from the very first game! Also, if Sakurai wants to a character to be added, he's gonna add them. He's not gonna be like "Oh crap! *facepalms* Besides Pikachu, I've never added a character that's neither the central character nor the playable avatar as the first representative of a franchise, therefore I cannot allow myself to add Sans into Smash.".

You're putting a lot of assumptions on me. My argument isn't that it'll never happen, I would be happy if it did. Sakurai is the person who has final say on who's in the game, and he can pick whoever wants. But if we make a pros and cons list of why certain characters are likely and unlikely, to just declare that this holds no merit is odd. You obviously don't think it holds water, which fair enough, you do you. But I do think it's interesting that its Erdrick we're rumoured to be getting and not Slime, when Slime is 100% the face of DQ, but not the playable protagonist.

When Nemesis from Resident Evil or Artorias are declared playable, I will gladly eat humble pie, but until then I'm going to factor this into my theorizing about newcomers from new franchises. Sorry if that bugs you.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Spoiler: Very long read

Pikachu isn't an exception. He's just a normal addition. There is no fanrule. You're looking at a pattern at best.

The mascot can easily get in before the protagonist if things align better for them. It also depends why the first character was in. In addition, most cases are the main protagonist is the series mascot(Link, Mario, Fox, Cloud(who shared it with Moogle and Chocobo at the time), Kirby, etc). There can be multiple reasons. Another thing to remember is how well they attempt to represent the core gameplay. It also depends how the core gameplay is. Pikachu having multiple specific "stand out moves" and tons of random stuff it can do is actually something that is accurate to the gameplay itself. While we have a max of 4 moves, it has a pretty big movepool as is, including TM's and HM's. The anime already shows this multiple times as Pikachu has done a ton of moves besides its 4 main moves. There's a lot of makeshift things it can do(tail hits included, actual punches and kicks, etc.) Being the mascot is only part of it.

Besides, we don't even have Red, we just have a generic Pokemon Trainer using the most known design(and one people have attributed to being Ash at times too, but that's not surprising as he's more iconic than Red due to significantly more exposure), a representation of pretty much the entire class. It's really the Pokemon who are far less generic, bar Ivysaur at best. Charizard has multiple references to the anime, and Squirtle still has a few anime things. Ivysaur is the only one without anything to go on from the anime(besides saying its own name). In addition, the anime influencing why the character got in is a huge part, and that's because the anime came out before the games in some countries. They're known more.

For instance, the reason Villager is pretty much who would get in first is because they're in mind to represent the core gameplay, and not just through Pocket. The tools too. The way they can use every item lying around. Isabelle isn't designed around the same core concept. She's not there to represent the gameplay at all. She's there because she's an all-star, and also required Villager to help create. Without Villager, we wouldn't have a representation of the core gameplay(which Pikachu is, making him a non-exception. We also would have a hard time getting Isabelle in because she had no easy way to enter without somebody to use as a base. They'd need a lot more time for a fully unique character. And her "using tons of tools" is a consequence of requiring Villager to create a coherent moveset, not because it fits her. The thing that fits her was massive changes to be a lot more silly/cute for her moveset. The first character of each game is about trying to also represent the core gameplay in some way. Ness having multiple different PSI he can't use shows off the vast unique potential of the game's options). Link's not just the mascot, but Zelda's core system is about tons of unique items, abilities, and sometimes magic. Magic isn't in every game even then, so the unique items and abilities are what Link does. He feels like the gameplay. He's got slashing, regular stabbing, even the Down and Upstabs from Zelda II. He's got the core items, being the Boomerang, Bombs, and Bow. A representation of the core gameplay is vastly more important in introducing a game series than mascot or protagonist alone. As either can easily do that.

Robin had more moveset potential and is one of the 3 main characters too. Also, Pokemon Yellow wouldn't have mattered. Pikachu was still way more feasible to add than Pokemon Trainer as the switching mechanic would've lagged the hell out of the n64(which we've seen as an issue in Brawl too. Melee was simply put together better in comparison, as it doesn't have lag issues when switching out between Zelda and Sheik at that point. So whether it's a weird issue with how it was programmed in Brawl or if the Wii simply was programmed weirdly is unknown). It's also way more movesets to make, and then don't have all the time in the world. There was a pretty short time period for Smash 64. Besides that, being recognizable was a lot more important, and still is, than simply being the protagonist by default. There's no real exception to the rule not just because it isn't even a rule, but because everything requires context as is. The thing about being the the face of the series is that they always were able to represent a focus on the core gameplay too to some degree. That's a far more clear pattern than "protagonist" or just "mascot". This is why a mascot of a series can be ignored(see: Jack Frost) over Joker, because there's more to show off via the Persona system as is. SMT had way more Nintendo time compared to Persona, which barely had one game. So it's not like there's some actual care about "Nintendo importance" either by default(I mean, sure, it can happen. It might be part of why MegaMan is the way he is).

 

[Door Key Pig]

Previous E3 Smash game presentations had multiple character reveals including DLC, but with Ultimate we technically only got Ridley for Ultimate's E3 as a full blown newcomer revealed, bundled with the gameplay reveal of Inkling, echo fighter Daisy and of course, Everyone is Here. So if they have enough to work with, they may use two DLC reveals to craft the biggest E3 splash. If we're talking mere waiting, I'd maybe rather have two newcomers now with a long period before 4 & 5 instead of the spread out. It's been half a year since Joker already, give us a big announcement in two characters to sell the darn pass, Nintendo! Especially if you were working on them alongside Joker.

Yeah, I've been reading a ton of reasons why I don't think Erdrick is in and they boil down to the possibility of Erdrick being leakbait (do you seriously think Square would let something leak half a year early? Not even Pokemon is that bad and they suck with leaks, much less Square Enix, who actively fights leaks) and how an Erdrick reveal at E3 would be stupid marketing since the Direct would be airing when the target audience for Erdrick (Japan) would be asleep while the E3 audience (which is pretty Western focused) would have a mixed reception to Erdrick (at best, they would be alright; at worst, they would accuse Nintendo of using Smash to advertise DQ in the West) compared to the extreme excitement of the Japanese audience. Then again, this stuff was mostly from me reading a different Newcomer thread and Nintendo is no stranger to making incredibly stupid Marketing and Business decisions (Ken and Incineroar being the last base roster reveals and SMM2 having no online co-op comes to mind for recent stuff)

Tbf, Smash like, never had a precedent for saving the most hype reveals for last and I don't really blame them. This is something they need to gauge interest in and sell, so of course they're going to put the bigger show stoppers up first to have that interest in the product way in advance. They're not going to leave it to the final direct with just a month of that extreme product interest someone like K Tool would bring, just to satisfy the subjective view of the one time, most hype reveal cycle of some fans.

Anyway, Erdrick, tho I'm kinda ready to be hilariously disproven on his non-presence in Ultimate just in case, is kinda weird with what's expected of a DLC character. Square wasn't able to bring anymore than two tracks for Cloud (to which we may expect multiple of Fighter's Pass characters) and couldn't even give the alternative origin artwork for Cloud's spirits or the FF characters that were already present in Midgar spirits (to which we may expect multiple spirits for the DLC board). Sure they also got Mario RPG content in Ultimate, but would they really have any better luck with Dragon's Quest contents, with its homophobe composer (?) and what not? Maybe if Square was only willing to put out more content for a DLC character rather than Cloud who was in the base game, but they didn't do that last time with Cloud? Like, in terms of Square actively trying to get as much content for Erdrick as possible and helping Nintendo, we still didn't get the mere origin artwork for Cloud or spirits for characters already present in Midgar. Maybe that falls under copyright with artwork or music that's not the fault of Square, but even so is DQ really going to be easier to deal with in that regard?

 

[Dust319]

I’d make an argument for or against Erdrick, but they’ve all already been made.

I find it interesting that precedents are being talked about this time when they really do not apply at all. The rosters of all previous games were the choices of Sakurai and his team, choices Sakurai admitted someone else within Nintendo made for the dlc this time. The only input Sakurai et all would have is whether or not a character is feasible within the engine.

Would Erdrick work within the Smash Ultimate engine? The only precedent would be Robin, who is a sword and magic user so there should not be any technical issues placing him in.

 

[Robdelia]

E3 2014 and Smash was weird. They had Mii Fighters, Palutena and Pac-Man revealed, but they revealed Miis and Palutena in the direct probably because Nintendo is aware that Smash news tends to overpower other news (people in Twitch chat screaming "WHENS SMASH BAYBEE" for example) and their main direct for 2014 was really good. So I think their line of thinking was "Let's reveal some smaller picks that people still know, that way our other news gets some breathing room. Then we reveal that one of the most iconic characters in gaming is joining the next day."
Erdrick at E3 would not cause a riot but he would be met with a lot of silence and "who is this guy why is Goku using a sword?" Hell, if he really is the second rep I'm wondering why they didn't tease him in either the February Direct or at the end of that Joker video in April. Why keep him until E3 where he'll get the most lukewarm reception?

 

[RileyXY1]

No character is guaranteed. Erdrick might just not make it in. Leakers aren't always correct.

 

[Ridrool64]

"Leakbait"... has there ever been a genuine example of this? Or is it baseless speculation that just means Erdrick is literally Incineroar 2?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

To be honest I don't really care who it is. Speculation is still fun for me, but the biggest thing I look forward to for any characters reveal is showing my sister (who actually plays Minecraft) Steve's hypothetical reveal trailer.

No character is guaranteed. Erdrick might just not make it in. Leakers aren't always correct.

Except for Dunsparce's new evolution that's totally going to be in Pokémon Sword & Shield. It's a lock for the advertising pick!

 

[Namasura]

Erdrick likely was part of fake leaks but I find it hard to believe SE would use him as leakbait, it just makes no sense considering the reaction Japan has had or SE's own internal situation.

 

[RileyXY1]

Additionally, most of the leakers who say that Erdrick is in lost their credibility one way or another.

 

[Polan]

No character is guaranteed. Erdrick might just not make it in. Leakers aren't always correct.

but they aren't always wrong either

 

[RileyXY1]

but they aren't always wrong either

That's the point. We can't assume whether a leak is real or fake solely based on the leaker's track record.

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

I decided to organize the CSS by how they appear in the Primary spirit fighter list.

It upsets me how much better this looks than the default CSS.

 

[Door Key Pig]

Hey if you could put in a first party DLC pick youd think make a great fit for the Fighter's Pass (and would fit in with development timeline of the fighters, so maybe not Pokémon/FE), who would you pick? What would bring new spirits and music and a new stage without feeling redundant?

 

[Ridrool64]

I think I should elaborate more on "Erdrick is Incineroar 2". I initially wanted to say something like this in Erdrick's own thread, being a victim of what, if this trend continues, the "Incineroar Effect", or maybe the "Shulk Effect" if the ESRB Leak situation does anything.

This is hitting a lot of the same beats as Incineroar did back during pre-release speculation, due to the great speculation bottleneck that was Box Theory. A character many people aren't fond of, whether it's for competition reasons, a dislike of the design, overrepresentation of something (Pokémon or JRPG's), or anything else is now backed by leakers. Many, many leakers already know about this character's inclusion, but a subsect of the fandom has had enough of leakers bottlenecking discussion and killing speculation (as there's not much to speculate over besides the roster, especially now that slots are back and we have a very, VERY precious 4 remaining). So here comes the theory of "leakbait": something to weed out leakers by implanting false information. Who, of course, happens to be the guy the insiders and leakers are telling us about, rather than it being anybody else. Erdrick really reminds me of Incineroar, somebody who lost the chance to be a surprise a long time ago, and is now dreaded because he will keep too many leaks alive that throttle speculation. People took ANY, and I mean ANY excuse they could to prove Incineroar wasn't in, and with Erdrick, that unfortunately seems to be happening again.

Now watch us get a Grinch Leak 2 before the next Smash reveal, especially if it's in a Smash Direct. Let's say "Version 4.0.0 will add 5 new bosses (Dr. Eggman, Sephiroth, Necrozma, Gruntilda Winkybunion, and Duon) adds an extra stage button, boss battle mode, gives all spirits descriptions, adds 28 new Final Fantasy songs from across the whole franchise, three new assists in Cait Sith, Goro Akechi and Mumbo Jumbo, adds 10 Mii Costumes including NiGHTS, Billy Hatcher, Steve, Master Chief, Tifa and more, and last but not least, or rather most importantly of all, Brave is Banjo-Kazooie with a Grunty's Lair stage, with a tease for 5.0.0 adding Platformer Mode and somebody who confirms spirit promotions (Bandana Dee, Shantae, bonus for Waluigi also confirming Assist promotions)"-tier levels of "make the Smash Fandom hope like hell this is real", which will probably bring back the people splitting into #TeamReal2 and #TeamFake2. Bonus points if it not only turns out that the above (intentionally ridiculous) leak is fake, but also that we get Dragon Quest and Dragon Quest only when it's time for the reveal, and if it's pathetically easy to figure out it's an Erdrick reveal within the first frames of the trailer. Then it would literally be Incineroar all over again.

I think that, considering I thought Arle was extremely likely, that there's no real big argument against him, and considering his competition is dropping like flies, pretty much Slime, Lara Croft, the Luminary, and Gex are the last people who still have a chance against Erdrick, and let's not kid ourselves, Gex is probably not happening. Of course, this assumes Square Enix will be a part of the pass. It's entirely possible they're not! But with all the insiders saying that we're getting a Squeenix character... I believe we are, or at least, we will get some DLC content from Squeenix, even if somehow it's not part of the pass.

The funny thing is, Slime vs. Erdrick is pretty much Sans vs. Frisk. One of them is more immediately distinctive, is drastically more popular, and the face of the whole series (though while Slime is uncontested, Sans shares this spot with Flowey and Papyrus). The other is still iconic and notable, is the primary playable protagonist of their game (and both are in series with rotating protagonists), and tends to get little respect for the possibility of an interesting moveset when it's there. Yet people champion Erdrick over Slime while saying Sans is more likely than Frisk. I, myself, think Frisk and Slime are more likely... peculiar. Wouldn't Frisk and Erdrick, or Sans and Slime, make more sense?

...I accidentally wrote an essay. Again. Though it isn't anywhere near as good, or as long, as my last one.

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

Hey if you could put in a first party DLC pick youd think make a great fit for the Fighter's Pass (and would fit in with development timeline of the fighters, so maybe not Pokémon/FE), who would you pick? What would bring new spirits and music and a new stage without feeling redundant?

Someone already made a case for Porky a while back, so...
Here's a bunch of potential new Zelda Spirits.

River Zoras
Lynels
Beamos
Wizzrobe
King Dodongo
Gohma
Dark Link

And my proposed fighter with some potential Spirits:

Spoiler

 

[Captain Shades]

I’m going to take a wild guess and say Erdrik will be at E3, but just like Smash 4 DLC, he won’t be alone. If you remember, Ryu came with 3 characters, so expecting that two could be announced and released at E3 isn’t much of a stretch given the over half a year time period. This also means that the last two will be November/December and February respectively.

As for Erdrik’s buddy, I believe Minecraft will finally join in the frey and Steve will be the next fighter. It makes sense to pair them together as you’d have the big Japanese and Western icons meaning there’ll be hype regardless of culture (though I don’t believe DQ is too small in the west to not garner hype). The two also make sense business wise as MC Dungeons will likely be talked about at E3, and Dragon Quest also has many projects coming.

I also believe we will get a new and much larger set of Mii costumes with
Geno (Returning)
Chocobo Hat (Returning)
Creeper Mask
Master Chief (Mii Gunner Costume)
Banjo & Kazooie (Mii Gunner Costume) - Kazooie as gun
Conker (Mii Sword Fighter Costume) - Chainsaw as sword
2 Dragon Quest Protagonists (Mii Sword Fighter Costumes)
Slime Hat

Going off of the Microsoft and Square Costume picks, I could see the other parties get a few returning suits
Mega Man.EXE (Returning)
Proto Man (Returning)
Monster Hunter Costumes (Returning)
Heiatchi (Returning)

 

[RileyXY1]

I'm thinking that if Erdrick gets in, then Dragon Quest will get the same amount of content that Final Fantasy got, which is very little content.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Hey if you could put in a first party DLC pick youd think make a great fit for the Fighter's Pass (and would fit in with development timeline of the fighters, so maybe not Pokémon/FE), who would you pick? What would bring new spirits and music and a new stage without feeling redundant?

Am I allowed to do Spring Man? 'Cause he'd be a great DLC.

 

[Robdelia]

I think I should elaborate more on "Erdrick is Incineroar 2". I initially wanted to say something like this in Erdrick's own thread, being a victim of what, if this trend continues, the "Incineroar Effect", or maybe the "Shulk Effect" if the ESRB Leak situation does anything.

This is hitting a lot of the same beats as Incineroar did back during pre-release speculation, due to the great speculation bottleneck that was Box Theory. A character many people aren't fond of, whether it's for competition reasons, a dislike of the design, overrepresentation of something (Pokémon or JRPG's), or anything else is now backed by leakers. Many, many leakers already know about this character's inclusion, but a subsect of the fandom has had enough of leakers bottlenecking discussion and killing speculation (as there's not much to speculate over besides the roster, especially now that slots are back and we have a very, VERY precious 4 remaining). So here comes the theory of "leakbait": something to weed out leakers by implanting false information. Who, of course, happens to be the guy the insiders and leakers are telling us about, rather than it being anybody else. Erdrick really reminds me of Incineroar, somebody who lost the chance to be a surprise a long time ago, and is now dreaded because he will keep too many leaks alive that throttle speculation. People took ANY, and I mean ANY excuse they could to prove Incineroar wasn't in, and with Erdrick, that unfortunately seems to be happening again.

The thing is that Incineroar had a claim to be in for the very same reason that Sakurai picked him over Decidueye: Smash didn't have a wrestler character yet. I specifically remember thinking when Vergeben first brought up Incineroar "Oh yea Incineroar makes more sense than Decidueye because we already have archer characters like Pit and the Links but we don't have a wrestler."
What role does Erdrick fill that already isn't handled by Robin, the three Links, Cloud, or even Mii Swordfighter? Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if the second DLC was Slime and he came with a Mii Swordfighter outfit for Erdrick.

 

[andree123]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

This popup expires at June 16th
There is a chance that we may not get a 4.0.0 update at E3, however I hope there would be a 4.0.0 direct in June.

 

[Robdelia]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

This popup expires at June 16th
There is a chance that we may not get a 4.0.0 update at E3, however I hope there would be a 4.0.0 direct in June.

#2 reveal at E3 and playable on the showfloor yet releases late June is my guess.

 

[RileyXY1]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

This popup expires at June 16th
There is a chance that we may not get a 4.0.0 update at E3, however I hope there would be a 4.0.0 direct in June.

If we don't get a 4.0.0 update reveal then they won't reveal a single character at E3.

 

[osby]

The thing is that Incineroar had a claim to be in for the very same reason that Sakurai picked him over Decidueye: Smash didn't have a wrestler character yet. I specifically remember thinking when Vergeben first brought up Incineroar "Oh yea Incineroar makes more sense than Decidueye because we already have archer characters like Pit and the Links but we don't have a wrestler."
What role does Erdrick fill that already isn't handled by Robin, the three Links, Cloud, or even Mii Swordfighter? Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if the second DLC was Slime and he came with a Mii Swordfighter outfit for Erdrick.

To be fair, if Erdrick gets in, it'll due to his game's popularity, not his moveset potential.

And watch us getting a Slime Mii hat with Erdrick.

 

[Captain Shades]

I'm thinking that if Erdrick gets in, then Dragon Quest will get the same amount of content that Final Fantasy got, which is very little content.

I don’t believe this will be the case. I think many forget that FF has numerous rights issues as song writers own their own individual music from the franchise, meaning Sakurai would have to pay for the song rights on top of getting Cloud (Sonic is in a similar situation as Sega does not own all of Sonic’s music). From my understanding, Dragon Quest seems to be very good about owning all its music and the like, so I doubt we’ll have another FF situation. Also, Square gets DLC money with this franchise, so they’ll likely loosen up a bit.

The thing is that Incineroar had a claim to be in for the very same reason that Sakurai picked him over Decidueye: Smash didn't have a wrestler character yet. I specifically remember thinking when Vergeben first brought up Incineroar "Oh yea Incineroar makes more sense than Decidueye because we already have archer characters like Pit and the Links but we don't have a wrestler."
What role does Erdrick fill that already isn't handled by Robin, the three Links, Cloud, or even Mii Swordfighter? Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if the second DLC was Slime and he came with a Mii Swordfighter outfit for Erdrick.

I’m just going to leave this here....

 

[TheCJBrine]

"Leakbait"... has there ever been a genuine example of this? Or is it baseless speculation that just means Erdrick is literally Incineroar 2?

There's a possibility the Metroid Prime Trilogy Switch-port rumors from insiders were because of leakbait. I think Sabi/PolarPanda has mentioned something about their source or somebody at Nintendo seeing some MTP paper or something, but I'm not entirely sure what they said as this was either earlier this year or in December.

Also, I believe Vergeben - whom started the Erdrick rumors - has talked about Square being strict with leaks, and throwing other names out as leakbait.

Finally, aside from the MTP stuff, Nintendo has tried to hide stuff before, even from people they hire - they had Xander Mobus announce Rayman among other names and stuff for Smash 4. "Everyone is Here!" was apparently unknown by most people at Nintendo, too.

So while Erdrick may be the real deal, there's a possibility that we actually get Slime, the DQ 11 protagonist, or some other DQ hero instead, if not someone who isn't from DQ.

 

[RileyXY1]

I don’t believe this will be the case. I think many forget that FF has numerous rights issues as song writers own their own individual music from the franchise, meaning Sakurai would have to pay for the song rights on top of getting Cloud (Sonic is in a similar situation as Sega does not own all of Sonic’s music). From my understanding, Dragon Quest seems to be very good about owning all its music and the like, so I doubt we’ll have another FF situation. Also, Square gets DLC money with this franchise, so they’ll likely loosen up a bit.

Except the DQ composer is very notoriously overprotective of his work.

 

[Door Key Pig]

Except the DQ composer is very notoriously overprotective of his work.

Also can we get artwork from DQ for spirits okay, rights-wise? Cause we totally couldn't for Final Fantasy, despite the characters already being in Smash, and need DQ spirits for the Spirit DLC Board.

 

[RileyXY1]

Also can we get artwork from DQ for spirits okay, rights-wise? Cause we totally couldn't for Final Fantasy, despite the characters already being in Smash, and need DQ spirits for the Spirit DLC Board.

Unfortunately, I don't think that there will be many DQ spirits. SE is very stingy with its franchises and you can see with the barebones content that Final Fantasy got. I think that DQ will be represented the same way.

 

[Door Key Pig]

Unfortunately, I don't think that there will be many DQ spirits. SE is very stingy with its franchises and you can see with the barebones content that Final Fantasy got. I think that DQ will be represented the same way.

Well we need some cause all DLC characters are gonna have DLC spirits, right? FF literally only got Clouds WITHOUT the origin artwork. Though to be fair, Mario RPG got a couple.

 

[RileyXY1]

It's another reason why I don't think that Erdrick is getting in.

 

[Captain Shades]

Also can we get artwork from DQ for spirits okay, rights-wise? Cause we totally couldn't for Final Fantasy, despite the characters already being in Smash, and need DQ spirits for the Spirit DLC Board.

We probably will see a few spirits. Square is going to get a cut of DLC money, so they’ll probably allow for more as to maximize their profit.

Also, in Square’s defense, it’s not like Pac-Man got that many spirits either. I think he had 5 in total with one being a fighter spirit, two being ghosts, then a fairy and the bonus fruits. They clearly missed quite a few characters like Mrs. Pac-Man and anything from either Pac-Land or Ghostly Adventures.

Except the DQ composer is very notoriously overprotective of his work.

I can see this being an issue, though I don’t think it’s a deal breaker. As long as Square owns the rights to the music they should be fine. The issue with FF7 was that the composer owns the music, so Square can’t use anything without his permission, which added a whole new layer of rights complications to Cloud that I assume Sakurai didn’t want to get involved with.

It's another reason why I don't think that Erdrick is getting in.

Honestly, Square’s ineptitude is actually why I believe Erdrik is getting in. They love DLC money, and behind the scenes stories seem to allude to the fact that Square was unhappy with Cloud being in the base roster and not as DLC. If anything, Erdrik seems like a character put in to please Square’s need for a DLC profit cut so Cloud could stay in.