Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[nessdeltarune00]

A lot of her chances came down to leaks, which were soon thrown in the trash. Leaks encourage a "believe in this character and the details will sort itself in reteospect" mentality so that might explain everything for you.

That being said, I disagree that KOSMOS couldn't have got in before Heihachi or Lloyd. After all, we got Banjo & Kazooie as the Microsoft rep versus Master Chief or Steve. Circumstances are different, sure, but it's a case where the dead franchise overtakes the currently alive and successful franchise.

Banjo had years of fan demand that led to his inclusion.

KOS-MOS has not had that same demand in the slightest. Only slim hope she has is that Sakurai low key LOVES Xenosaga.

 

[SuperSceptile15]

I'm keeping my expectations low for the upcoming Pokemon Direct. I don't think they'll reveal a Pokemon as the final fighters pass character, and I don't expect them to reveal the next mainline title until February 27. What I can see happening though is we get more information on Pokemon Home and Pokemon Sleep. In addition, we could get a trailer for Detective Pikachu 2 (this was announced in the same presentation that had Pokemon Sleep).

 

[Schnee117]

The fact is, in Smash, the move looks completely different.

It looks exactly like another of Zangief's Lariats

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Hot take incoming.


It honestly boggles my mind that people thought (and still think) KOS-MOS would get in before Lloyd and Heihachi. The Tweet about her series failing a market analysis should’ve been the final nail in the coffin.


Those two got Mii Costumes in the last game, for crying out loud. If we get a Namco rep for post pass, it will 99% be either one of them.

It aldo boggles my mind how people thing Lloyd would get in over the more popular and more known Yuri

 

[Deleted member]

Only slim hope she has is that Sakurai low key LOVES Xenosaga.

Sounds like more than enough reason to say she's not impossible imo.

Also Cutie Gwen checked them all and Joker's presentation had zero amiibo announcements.

 

[XorahnGaia]

I know I'm sounding stubborn with this, but can someone confirm that every DLC presentation had an amiibo announcement?

I wouldn't call them announcements, but Sakurai mentioned the new amiibos that were coming out in every character presentation since Hero. You can check for yourself:

Spoiler: Hero's presentation

Spoiler: Banjo's presentation

Spoiler: Terry's presentation

And yeah, it still doesn't mean that FP5 will be revealed before the 17th since patterns can be broken, but it's still something to keep in mind.

 

[3BitSaurus]

series outcome doesn't matter

I know I just memed about it earlier today, but if we got Banjo Kazooie, a series that wasn't relevant in over a decade (and let's just say it didn't quite go out with a bang either) as our first form of Microsoft representation before the gaming juggernauts that are Halo or Minecraft, I'd say anything goes at this point

Big difference there, tough. B-K still had a very important connection to Nintendo and the core fanbase at its side. Xenosaga has neither of these things.

I agree that the concept of "never-evers" is practically dead by now (the closest thing being Sony or non-videogame characters), but I woudn't call KOS-MOS likely either.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Oh, it does look different, true. But I doubt Crash was the idea behind it. Don't forget R.O.B. has a similar move. Maybe they just reused an animation?

I don't think Zangief is honestly all that obscure. Also, I can't find where Sakurai said that about Tingle(though it's not hard to believe since he has had a lack of popularity in the West. It's lightened up a lot, but stuff like HW and them pushing his more favorable Majora's Mask version helps).

What SF games did you play? I don't think Zangief is in them all? I grew up with SFII, so I know that cast far better than any other one. I've heard of a few others, and seen pictures as is. But the cast beyond II with few exceptions are mostly a mystery to me other than maybe their names or a basic like "are they a shotoclone", and only sometimes. It's a huge series, so you might recognize only a certain era of characters.

I can't remember the precise games I played, I played them casually and I never got too much interested in it.
I think I tried one of the original games, on SNES maybe, many years ago... then later, a game on GBA, and more recently one of the modern ones on PS3 at a friend's home.

 

[RouffWestie]

I could see Kosmos being added and Sakurai stating that he included her because Bandai-Namco suggested her.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

It aldo boggles my mind how people thing Lloyd would get in over the more popular and more known Yuri

That actually makes sense. Lloyd is a hugely popular pick in the West due to Symphonia being a huuuuuuge game there. Like, it really did a lot for Tales of fans. Likewise, while Sakurai saying Lloyd is the obvious pick was clearly about the costume, it does mean he still thinks of him as an important pick in some way.

So it's still between those two. Popularity, as noted by Sakurai too, isn't the whole factor.

Though sleeping on any other Bamco character besides Lloyd and Heihachi seems a bit silly myself, I can't entirely blame them. Sure, we have Banjo as an example, but as noted, hard fan demand was a key factor. That's not so obvious with Bamco.

I can't remember the precise games I played, I played them casually and I never got too much interested in it.
I think I tried one of the original games, on SNES maybe, many years ago... then later, a game on GBA, and more recently one of the modern ones on PS3 at a friend's home.

Ah. Maybe you didn't play one of them where he had a more updated lariat move. Schnee pointed out how one of the versions is near identical, so it seems like you simply didn't know?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Tingle's issue wasn't obscurity but that a ****ton of people outright hate Tingle.

Zangief is a frequently occuring character in a franchise that regularly sells millions, with Zangief's debut game only recently no longer becoming the best selling fighting game due to Smash Ultimate

Got 'd while trying to think how best to say this so I guess I'll just say this: Tingle seems to rely on a very Jappanese style humor, and due to cultural differences, the character comes off to Americans as sad and/or creepy. I've also heard that one of the character's official descriptions implies that he's a child predator, but that could be nothing more than a playground rumour.

It looks exactly like another of Zangief's Lariats

Spoiler: GIF

Except his head doesn't rotate at mach speed.

It aldo boggles my mind how people thing Lloyd would get in over the more popular and more known Yuri

Because I don't know this Yuri chick but I do know Lloyd so clearly he's the better pick.

...I say this in jest but I personally really don't want Yuri over Lloyd for similar reasoning.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

I could see Kosmos being added and Sakurai stating that he included her because Bandai-Namco suggested her.

If she got in, it would be 100% Sakurais doing.

Haradas tweet about the market analysis shows that KOS-MOS is low priority to Namco, they would definitley choose Lloyd or Heihachi if it was their call to make.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

It looks exactly like another of Zangief's Lariats

Good point, I didn't know of this.

 

[Deleted member]

If she got in, it would be 100% Sakurais doing.

Haradas tweet about the market analysis shows that KOS-MOS is low priority to Namco, they would definitley choose Lloyd or Heihachi if it was their call to make.

If I wanna go bigbrained, what if KOSMOS makes an appearance in the XC1 Remake as an extra addition of some kind and Nintendo use her Smash announcement to drum up hype for that game?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

If she got in, it would be 100% Sakurais doing.

Haradas tweet about the market analysis shows that KOS-MOS is low priority to Namco, they would definitley choose Lloyd or Heihachi if it was their call to make.

They would "definitely"? That's a bit too extreme of a statement. There's no question they're worth keeping in mind, though.

Though I agree it would be on Sakurai for Kos-Mos, but that's a moot point since he chooses overall who the final character is regardless. Bamco isn't choosing anyone, though whether or not they might suggest certain parts of how they're(and the franchise) represented is a different story. SE did suggest some of Hero's alts, after all.

 

[Deleted member]

I wouldn't call them announcements, but Sakurai mentioned the new amiibos that were coming out in every character presentation since Hero. You can check for yourself:

And yeah, it still doesn't mean that FP5 will be revealed before the 17th since patterns can be broken, but it's still something to keep in mind.

Thanks for checking. I'd say the lack of an announcement in Joker's video is a hole in the amiibo theory. Not damning, but it makes it not 100%, which is my point in checking.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Thanks for checking. I'd say the lack of an announcement in Joker's video is a hole in the amiibo theory. Not damning, but it makes it not 100%, which is my point in checking.

This thread's gonna ****ing explode when you're right as almost every fan theory ends up being wrong

 

[Firox]

Because I don't know this Yuri chick but I do know Lloyd so clearly he's the better pick.

...I say this in jest but I personally really don't want Yuri over Lloyd for similar reasoning.

Yuri a chick.....hehehehe

 

[NoOtherPersona]

A lot of her chances came down to leaks, which were soon thrown in the trash. Leaks encourage a "believe in this character and the details will sort itself in reteospect" mentality so that might explain everything for you.

That being said, I disagree that KOSMOS couldn't have got in before Heihachi or Lloyd. After all, we got Banjo & Kazooie as the Microsoft rep versus Master Chief or Steve. Circumstances are different, sure, but it's a case where the dead franchise overtakes the currently alive and successful franchise.

I mean to be honest Microsoft was a different case all together Nintendo fans wanted Banjo for YEARS Banjo is Nintendos kid in away it doesn't matter that Microsoft owns the license spiritual everyone knows banjos true home and yes Master Chief and Steve would have made more sense over the bear at the time but Banjo just feels right (even though technically all the people complaining about wanting a Nintendo character already got it with banjo)

 

[Deleted member]

This thread's gonna ****ing explode when you're right as almost every fan theory ends up being wrong

I made another avi bet and I'm not going down without a bloody fight.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

Thanks for checking. I'd say the lack of an announcement in Joker's video is a hole in the amiibo theory. Not damning, but it makes it not 100%, which is my point in checking.

Amiibo theory pretty much revolves around Amiibo releases being in the same month as character releases.

I dunno how this is really a hole in it. The theory would only be killed for good if we don’t get a January shadowdrop.

 

[Deleted member]

Amiibo theory pretty much revolves around Amiibo releases being in the same month as character releases.

I dunno how this is really a hole in it. The theory would only be killed for good if we don’t get a January shadowdrop.

Were there amiibo releases in April, month of Joker's release?

 

[♕Pretty Roger♕]

If she got in, it would be 100% Sakurais doing.

Haradas tweet about the market analysis shows that KOS-MOS is low priority to Namco, they would definitley choose Lloyd or Heihachi if it was their call to make.

Implying Namco would choose Heihachi or Lloyd instead of DonChan who is the only Namco character that has crossed over with Mario that is not in Smash yet (except for a cameo) and would definitely push Taiko's international sells now that they decided to localize it, plus way more unique than those two and representing rhythm games.

 

[cmbsfm]

I was really hoping this week would have a general direct. It’s the last week of break for me so this sucks.

 

[RileyXY1]

If she got in, it would be 100% Sakurais doing.

Haradas tweet about the market analysis shows that KOS-MOS is low priority to Namco, they would definitley choose Lloyd or Heihachi if it was their call to make.

And, I think that it is more likely that Lloyd or Heihachi gets in than KOS-MOS.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

Were there amiibo releases in April, month of Joker's release?

Yes, there were, that is pretty much why that theory has been speculated in the first place.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Implying Namco would choose Heihachi or Lloyd instead of DonChan who is the only Namco character that has crossed over with Mario that is not in Smash yet (except for a cameo) and would definitely push Taiko's international sells now that they decided to localize it, plus way more unique than those two and representing rhythm games.

I'm really hoping you're right as it may lead to indirect exposure for Kamen Rider Build, one of my favourite shows with it's strong "Make gay not war. Also **** Shinzo Abe". Let more people see my gay bunny and gay dragon dudes dadon

 

[GoodGrief741]

A lot of her chances came down to leaks, which were soon thrown in the trash. Leaks encourage a "believe in this character and the details will sort itself in reteospect" mentality so that might explain everything for you.

That being said, I disagree that KOSMOS couldn't have got in before Heihachi or Lloyd. After all, we got Banjo & Kazooie as the Microsoft rep versus Master Chief or Steve. Circumstances are different, sure, but it's a case where the dead franchise overtakes the currently alive and successful franchise.

series outcome doesn't matter

I know I just memed about it earlier today, but if we got Banjo Kazooie, a series that wasn't relevant in over a decade (and let's just say it didn't quite go out with a bang either) as our first form of Microsoft representation before the gaming juggernauts that are Halo or Minecraft, I'd say anything goes at this point

Except that Banjo-Kazooie is a classic pair of games, pretty much one of the must-play games of the N64 era that is still regarded fondly today and was highly influential.

The KOS-MOS comparison doesn't work because it pretends that Banjo-Kazooie had nothing but fan support backing it.

"Why would a character from Eternal Champions get over the more famous Sega franchises like Yakuza, Puyo Puyo, et al?" "Oh well you see Banjo beat Minecraft and Halo so sales aren't everything". That's how this argument sounds to me.

 

[Droodle]

It aldo boggles my mind how people thing Lloyd would get in over the more popular and more known Yuri

I always bring this up, and people keep on posting the same interview from 2015 about "Sakurai says Lloyd is the only choice". This was when Yuri's games had never released on the Switch; and Sakurai was split on Cloud because "he doesn't have a huge presence on Nintendo". Keep in mind Cloud is basically the poster boy for the entire genre. Even Itsuno said Dante wasn't possible last year, because of no Nintendo presence.

I accept that it's more of a 50/50 chance of Yuri vs Lloyd getting in. It depends on if Sakurai prioritizes the base series, or the Smash fanbase more. But so far only the most popular characters of each 3rd party series have gotten into Smash. However, I understand that the big difference is that Yuri is more popular, while Lloyd is more requested (within the Smash fanbase).

That said, I just want more people to know that both characters have just as good of a shot as each other. Most of the "evidence" for Lloyd works just as well, if not more so in Yuri's favor.

 

[Deleted member]

Yes, there were, that is pretty much why that theory has been speculated in the first place.

Please point them out then.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

Implying Namco would choose Heihachi or Lloyd instead of DonChan

Who?

 

[Deleted member]

I figure there wasn't going to be a Nintendo Direct this week, but a Pokemon Direct sure popped out of the blue.

Were there amiibo releases in April, month of Joker's release?

Young Link, Ken, and Daisy were released a week before Joker came out. I don't remember if there was a specific update before 3.0.0 that made those amiibos compatible thoe.

If you don't believe me, you could look at the site itself since it clearly shows which date said amiibos came out: https://www.nintendo.com/amiibo/line-up/

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I always bring this up, and people keep on posting the same interview from 2015 about "Sakurai says Lloyd is the only choice". This was when Yuri's games had never released on the Switch; and Sakurai was split on Cloud because "he doesn't have a huge presence on Nintendo". Keep in mind Cloud is basically the poster boy for the entire genre. Even Itsuno said Dante wasn't possible last year, because of no Nintendo presence.

I accept that it's more of a 50/50 chance of Yuri vs Lloyd getting in. It depends on if Sakurai prioritizes the base series, or the Smash fanbase more. But so far only the most popular characters of each 3rd party series have gotten into Smash. However, I understand that the big difference is that Yuri is more popular, while Lloyd is more requested (within the Smash fanbase).

That said, I just want more people to know that both characters have just as good of a shot as each other. Most of the "evidence" for Lloyd works just as well, if not more so in Yuri's favor.

All I know about Yuri is that he's the most androgynous twink on the planet and his game's story is basically "Murder is ok". I'll admit, I'd be somewhat annoyed if he got in due to my only real Tales experience being my 30 hours into Berseria

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Yuri a chick.....hehehehe

I didn't remember his gender and didn't want to call him a guy and be wrong.

Spoiler: Image

...

Why didn't they just put "Just according to plan." then?

Who?

The drum guy from the (at least mostly) Japanese exclusive Taiko no Tatsujin series.

 

[Calamitas]

Were there amiibo releases in April, month of Joker's release?

"Wave 13 marks the third wave of characters from Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. It was launched worldwide on April 12th, 2019 and includes returning veteran Young Link and newcomers Daisy and Ken."

 

[Deleted member]

I figure there wasn't going to be a Nintendo Direct this week, but a Pokemon Direct sure popped out of the blue.

Young Link, Ken, and Daisy were released a week before Joker came out. I don't remember if there was a specific update before 3.0.0 that made those amiibos compatible thoe.

If you don't believe me, you could look at the site itself since it clearly shows which date said amiibos came out: https://www.nintendo.com/amiibo/line-up/

"Wave 13 marks the third wave of characters from Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. It was launched worldwide on April 12th, 2019 and includes returning veteran Young Link and newcomers Daisy and Ken."

Thanks for checking! Seems next week is definitely worth keeping an eye out for then.

 

[SneakyLink]

I figure there wasn't going to be a Nintendo Direct this week, but a Pokemon Direct sure popped out of the blue.

Young Link, Ken, and Daisy were released a week before Joker came out. I don't remember if there was a specific update before 3.0.0 that made those amiibos compatible thoe.

If you don't believe me, you could look at the site itself since it clearly shows which date said amiibos came out: https://www.nintendo.com/amiibo/line-up/

To answer on the update, there was a ver 2.0.2 that made the game compatable with the new amiibo of the month.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I always bring this up, and people keep on posting the same interview from 2015 about "Sakurai says Lloyd is the only choice". This was when Yuri's games had never released on the Switch; and Sakurai was split on Cloud because "he doesn't have a huge presence on Nintendo". Keep in mind Cloud is basically the poster boy for the entire genre. Even Itsuno said Dante wasn't possible last year, because of no Nintendo presence.

I accept that it's more of a 50/50 chance of Yuri vs Lloyd getting in. It depends on if Sakurai prioritizes the base series, or the Smash fanbase more. But so far only the most popular characters of each 3rd party series have gotten into Smash. However, I understand that the big difference is that Yuri is more popular, while Lloyd is more requested (within the Smash fanbase).

That said, I just want more people to know that both characters have just as good of a shot as each other. Most of the "evidence" for Lloyd works just as well, if not more so in Yuri's favor.

Nintendo presence isn't a hard rule, though.

It wasn't about Cloud having a huge presence. What he said was he wasn't sure if he'd have added him if he had no appearance on a Nintendo console, something he thought of in hindsight(meaning it wasn't really on his mind at the time). It wasn't really a big factor. He already wanted Cloud. Having a Nintendo appearance is a boon because it makes negotiating with a previous contractor a bit easier, but for the most part, it doesn't always do a lot. FF being heavily with Nintendo in itself was probably more important in comparison than a tiny few appearances.

Lloyd is severely popular and well known in the West. Symphonia was a breakout game for Tales of. There's a reason it's held in high regard. Yuri's Nintendo presence isn't going to actually help much to begin with. That's not a heavy factor. There's more to it than that. Lloyd's is also a bigger Nintendo presence as is, which if you want to include a Nintendo factor, it favors Lloyd way more. But being as that's not a big deal in itself, it's a pretty close tie between the two characters. Besides that, you do know when it comes to "being on Nintendo", he was solely talking about 3rd parties and specifically them being playable as a full character, right? Costumes were not really part of that context. They could potentially correlate, but it doesn't make them causation either. I wouldn't take the statement to mean any content as is. Especially when some content can literally be a preview for a game that isn't out yet(Shadow Moses Island had a Metal Gear Solid 4 preview content as a bit of a bonus). MGS being decently known on Nintendo is one thing, but the content itself is non-Nintendo, so it's not as simple. For a lot, Lloyd is pretty much the icon of Tales of(though there's no question Nintendo bias is a part of it. But see Banjo for a similar thing, plus, it did help get him in since that's the core reason for the huge fan demand).

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Implying Namco would choose Heihachi or Lloyd instead of DonChan who is the only Namco character that has crossed over with Mario that is not in Smash yet (except for a cameo) and would definitely push Taiko's international sells now that they decided to localize it, plus way more unique than those two and representing rhythm games.

Aayyy finally someone talkingg about Don chan!

 

[Wunderwaft]

Yeah... KOS-MOS is not gonna be chosen by either Nintendo or Bandai-Namco, Xenosaga as a series is not seen as profitable to both companies and neither are interested in reviving the series or the character. If she gets chosen it would be entirely on Sakurai's hands (and I heavily doubt this since Nintendo are the ones choosing the characters apparently).

Look at it this way. Back in Smash 4 we had Monolith Software and Bandai Namco collaborate together on the same game, yet KOS-MOS didn't make a single appearance in that game, not even as a Mii costume. Bandai Namco just had their 2020 new year collab art of their IPs and KOS-MOS didn't even appear in it. Harada just said recently Xenosaga is not seen as profitable enough to revive. With all of these information put together, why would either Nintendo or Bandai Namco choose KOS-MOS?

Comparing KOS-MOS to Banjo-Kazooie is ignoring the context of the duo's inclusion, Banjo-Kazooie had ridiculous amount of fan demand and Phil Spencer himself wanted to put the duo in Smash. KOS-MOS doesn't have either strong fan demand or a person at Bandai Namco who wants to push the character to Nintendo. I fail to see how KOS-MOS measures up to Tekken or Tales in terms of priority.