Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Koopaul]

EDIT: Nevermind.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Skepticism is a healthy quality to have.
But realize that "evidence" in a favor of something like a leak is different than "evidence" in favor of a scientific hypothesis.
Scientific evidence must point to only one reasonable conclusion beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Evidence for things like leaks are not irrefutable proof but rather general hints toward possible outcomes.

In this sense, the Cacomalllow leak has more evidence than most leaks.

So basically I can call this evidence?

Look at the timers and notice how they don't match up

 

[Will]

Skepticism is a healthy quality to have.
But realize that "evidence" in a favor of something like a leak is different than "evidence" in favor of a scientific hypothesis.
Scientific evidence must point to only one reasonable conclusion beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Evidence for things like leaks are not irrefutable proof but rather general hints toward possible outcomes.

In this sense, the Cacomalllow leak has more evidence than most leaks.

The only evidence I believe is video evidence.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

The leak is possible to fake. But that doesn't make it fake either. Especially seeing as nobody could replicate the actual hats, nor is the leaker coming out with actual proof.

Which is why I lean towards real, but remain skeptical.

 

[Ben Holt]

So basically I can call this evidence?
View attachment 254852

Look at the timers and notice how they don't match up

Yes. That is fair evidence against the leak.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

The leak is possible to fake. But that doesn't make it fake either. Especially seeing as nobody could replicate the actual hats, nor is the leaker coming out with actual proof.

Which is why I lean towards real, but remain skeptical.

Modeling is such a hard job that you cannot replicate an exact model. It's one of the reasons models merely get reused in development. When Sword and Shield had Game Freak claim they made all the models from scratch, Gyarados' whiskers moving the exact same way was used as evidence towards the contrary. Not just by angry people who refuse to listen, but people with experience modelling ****. Not even the Smash team could fully replicate the fake hats

 

[Will]

The leak is possible to fake. But that doesn't make it fake either. Especially seeing as nobody could replicate the actual hats, nor is the leaker coming out with actual proof.

I agree.

Which is why I lean towards real, but remain skeptical.

and its ruined why irene

I'm leaning towards fake, but not ruling out the possibility. Does that make me a pessimist or woke?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

People also seem to be forgetting that leaks have to prove their validity, not that it has to be proven fake

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Let's see the problem with the Gamefreak comparison; namely, it's using 3DS models and comparing them to the Switch models. ...They're the same model. No wonder replication isn't that hard to pull off.

The models used on this leak are different from the old Wii U hack models. And nobody has succeeded in replicating it. Seems pretty much like it's a different situation. If somebody can successfully recreate them, that'd hurt the leak by a lot. But since nobody can, that only helps it.

It doesn't mean it's real, but unless the creator comes out(which to be fair, with how different these are, that might be hard for them to prove anyway. It's not like with Omni who wasn't doing in-game model footage in the same way)... or we get the DLC announcements, we're not honestly going to know for a while. The leak won't die for a long time without better evidence than "maybe somebody could do it since they got decently far in modding". It's not tangible or hard proof, it's just a good reason to remain skeptical. But lacks any conclusive data.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Let's see the problem with the Gamefreak comparison; namely, it's using 3DS models and comparing them to the Switch models. ...They're the same model. No wonder replication isn't that hard to pull off.

The models used on this leak are different from the old Wii U hack models. And nobody has succeeded in replicating it. Seems pretty much like it's a different situation. If somebody can successfully recreate them, that'd hurt the leak by a lot. But since nobody can, that only helps it.

It doesn't mean it's real, but unless the creator comes out(which to be fair, with how different these are, that might be hard for them to prove anyway. It's not like with Omni who wasn't doing in-game model footage in the same way)... or we get the DLC announcements, we're not honestly going to know for a while. The leak won't die for a long time without better evidence than "maybe somebody could do it since they got decently far in modding". It's not tangible or hard proof, it's just a good reason to remain skeptical. But lacks any conclusive data.

Irene you're doing the thing again where you're blatantly wrong and double dip when proven wrong to the point of inconsistency

 

[Ben Holt]

People also seem to be forgetting that leaks have to prove their validity, not that it has to be proven fake

True. But usually that proof comes when the game releases. See the ESRB and Ken leaks.
That's why I never call a leak proven until it becomes officially confirmed.
But until then, all we got are track records of known leakers, public statements, and the simple smell test.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Irene you're doing the thing again where you're blatantly wrong and double dip when proven wrong to the point of inconsistency

No, more like I misread what your point is.

I stand by my point. There's zero actual evidence it's fake. There's been no real way to prove it's fake as of right now. If the creator doesn't come out with it(which they have quite a few times to prove a modeling job is fake), then there's no point in dismissing it since nobody else can do anything to prove it fake. That doesn't mean it's real either, it just means there's no evidence either which way. I lean towards real because it's extremely believable in its design. Simple as that. It'll be proven real or fake in due time, but I'll wait for something actually tangible to come along besides "oh, hey, it's possible to fake". Being possible doesn't mean it actually is the case. I simply don't buy your argument as a remotely good reason to even lean towards it being fake. At best it would put me 50/50. But as I noted, it looks extremely believable, so it's more like 70/30 to me.

And keep in mind I'm not taking anything that Ben Holt said into account(like the meeting with Sakurai). Like, that does make it sound more likely, but that doesn't really tell me the leak is fake or real either. That just tells me to keep an eye out for a character like Doom Marine as a potential player. The leak can be fake and we could get still get Doom Marine without any costumes or even a different one(or a different version of the costume) for all we know. Basically I'm not tying them together.

 

[perfectchaos83]

Let's see the problem with the Gamefreak comparison; namely, it's using 3DS models and comparing them to the Switch models. ...They're the same model. No wonder replication isn't that hard to pull off.

I think you're missing the point of that argument. This was used as evidence that GF DIDN'T remake the models from scratch like they said they did. Just due to the way modeling and rigging works, it's impossible to replicate something 1:1. Not being able to replicate the Mallow/Doom hats 1:1 is not evidence it's real, but people have come pretty damn close

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I think you're missing the point of that argument. This was used as evidence that GF DIDN'T remake the models from scratch like they said they did. Just due to the way modeling and rigging works, it's impossible to replicate something 1:1. Not being able to replicate the Mallow/Doom hats 1:1 is not evidence it's real, but people have come pretty damn close

Read my next post. I already covered that I misread it anyway.

 

[perfectchaos83]

Read my next post. I already covered that I misread it anyway.

At best, it exists in purgatory. But there's literally nothing in that leak that makes it believable. I'd still argue that the fact that the video is still up is a bigger point in favor of it being fake than anything else.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

At best, it exists in purgatory. But there's literally nothing in that leak that makes it believable. I'd still argue that the fact that the video is still up is a bigger point in favor of it being fake than anything else.

Extremely good and solid gameplay that's really damn hard to replicate is why I think it's real. And I don't remember anything actually coming "that close" either.

Tons of mods are kept up every day, while many are also taken down. Companies are strange in what they bother to flag. I wouldn't put too much stock into it right now as a reason. It's certainly a better reason than the poor "somebody can make good(but still not accurate enough to tell) mods" right now, but it's not much better.

 

[perfectchaos83]

Extremely good and solid gameplay that's really damn hard to replicate is why I think it's real. And I don't remember anything actually coming "that close" either.

Tons of mods are kept up every day, while many are also taken down. Companies are strange in what they bother to flag. I wouldn't put too much stock into it right now as a reason. It's certainly a better reason than the poor "somebody can make good(but still not accurate enough to tell) mods" right now, but it's not much better.

If it's a leak, why are you comparing it to the flagging status of mods rather than actual video leaks like the ESRB videos?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

If it's a leak, why are you comparing it to the flagging status of mods rather than actual video leaks like the ESRB videos?

Because they are flagged the same. Just different reasons. One illegally uses the IP of a company(or more than one). The other is leaked content that shouldn't be up, which is also illegal due to NDA's.

There's really no difference in the end because Youtube doesn't give a crap about why it's flagged. Just that it's not supposed to exist on a channel. Mods or leaks suffer the same fate in the end, when they actually suffer it. Which isn't all the time.

That's why I put little stock into it. Not every leak gets flagged, honestly. Many do, but all? No. That's not realistic. It needs to actually gather the attention of someone willing to flag it. Whether it's someone posing as a company or the real company itself. Flags are all over the place to begin with too, so I wouldn't take it being taken down as meaning much either, as many fake leaks could be taken down too.

 

[perfectchaos83]

Because they are flagged the same. Just different reasons. One illegally uses the IP of a company(or more than one). The other is leaked content that shouldn't be up, which is also illegal due to NDA's.

There's really no difference in the end because Youtube doesn't give a crap about why it's flagged. Just that it's not supposed to exist on a channel. Mods or leaks suffer the same fate in the end, when they actually suffer it. Which isn't all the time.

That's why I put little stock into it. Not every leak gets flagged, honestly. Many do, but all? No. That's not realistic. It needs to actually gather the attention of someone willing to flag it. Whether it's someone posing as a company or the real company itself. Flags are all over the place to begin with too, so I wouldn't take it being taken down as meaning much either, as many fake leaks could be taken down too.

The ESRB videos were getting removed as fast as they were getting put up. I'd actually say you're crazy if you think Nintendo DIDN'T know about the Mallow/Doom leak considering how widespread it was.

 

[Gentlepanda]

i like the part of cacomallow leak where nintendo's apparent licensing deal with not one but two major third party companies has leaked and yet they—having taken down ESRB, Roy/Ryu, and ultimate gameplay leaks literal minutes after upload—continue to not give a flying **** for a month

it ain't real folks, nintendo's attitude to flagging videos is usually all over the place but it's extremely consistent when it comes to real leaks

 

[Ben Holt]

i like the part of cacomallow leak where nintendo's apparent licensing deal with not one but two major third party companies has leaked and yet they—having taken down ESRB, Roy/Ryu, and ultimate gameplay leaks literal minutes after upload—continue to not give a flying **** for a month

it ain't real folks, nintendo's attitude to flagging videos is usually all over the place but it's extremely consistent when it comes to real leaks

Ken leak.

 

[perfectchaos83]

Ken leak.

Is not a video leak.

 

[Gentlepanda]

Ken leak.

much more difficult to get rid of pictures than it is to take down offending youtube videos

you could view ESRB leak's photos whenever you wanted (though the album still sometimes got deleted), but making a video showing the content was extremely risky

cacomallow largely exists in a form nintendo can completely control the availability of yet they haven't done a thing about it

 

[Dan]

I had a dream there was a Direct and Crash was the next character, they announced they would be doing non-game characters and they announced who the next characters were (all the rest they had planned [probably because they know how out of hand speculation gets lol]): it was like Goku, Harry Potter, Toad and Xatu along with a bunch of other Pokémon lol... I was crying because I was so happy.

 

[Deleted member]

i like the part of cacomallow leak where nintendo's apparent licensing deal with not one but two major third party companies has leaked and yet they—having taken down ESRB, Roy/Ryu, and ultimate gameplay leaks literal minutes after upload—continue to not give a flying **** for a month

it ain't real folks, nintendo's attitude to flagging videos is usually all over the place but it's extremely consistent when it comes to real leaks

Case in point, should everything be real; KOS-MOS takedown.

 

[Cosmic77]

It could be real, but I do think it's suspiciously convenient that the costumes are shown off without the actual newcomers themselves, and it's all on a stage that's already in Smash. Mii Costumes usually come last, so the fighters and stages should be almost done as well.

 

[Ben Holt]

Just saying, in Cacomalllow's favor, no Ultimate leak has been taken down yet.
Maybe Nintendo got smart.

 

[Deleted member]

Just saying, in Cacomalllow's favor, no Ultimate leak has been taken down yet.
Maybe Nintendo got smart.

It's kinda fishy every way you think about it.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

They're playing mind games with us!

 

[Gentlepanda]

Just saying, in Cacomalllow's favor, no Ultimate leak has been taken down yet.
Maybe Nintendo got smart.

ultimate gameplay leaks and livestreams of WoL in the pre-launch period were taken down so frequently that only one or two from the tail end remain unscathed, what are you talking about

as for the characters:

• hero: vague insider claims on forums; impossible to take down in any meaningful capacity
• banjo: one resetERA admin making a tease; impossible for nintendo to even act against this as a 'leak'
• terry: nintendo literally leaked it themselves and fixed it hours after being noticed

 

[Ben Holt]

I'll reiterate, though.
The reason I'm on team real for Cacomallow is simply because I think that the Mallow Mii hat is already confirmed thanks to a leak that got Goemon and Rocket Grunt right, and I feel like Doom Slayer's very likely because Bethesda has openly stated that they have talked to Nintendo about Smash Bros.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

I'll reiterate, though.
The reason I'm on team real for Cacomallow is simply because I think that the Mallow Mii hat is already confirmed thanks to a leak that got Goemon and Rocket Grunt right, and I feel like Doom Slayer's very likely because Bethesda has openly stated that they have talked to Nintendo about Smash Bros.

Don't assume Doom

 

[Will]

Don't assume Doom

It's DOOM or Skyrim, it's 50/50, no choice is wrong

 

[Ayumi Tachibana]

Yeah and IIRC, Sakurai mentioned in his Banjo column his satisfaction working with a western studio like Microsoft, also wishing to do more in the future. If he's saying that then, chances are that there wasn't another western third-party on the roster until more DLC was decided. Hence why I feel the Skyrim character is likely Fighter 6 and Geno 7.

Actually, that translation is not correct. Rather, I might even say they changed the meaning intentionally for whatever reason. The translation of that portion was that off and weird. The meaning of the sentence flipped almost 180 degrees. Sakurai was actually worrying about the future more requests are coming because of the inclusion of the long-time fan favorite.
This is why I'm not seeing more western reps or spirits/assists upgrades at least in the 2nd wave (and also not expecting 3rd wave or full-pass 2nd wave since Sakurai said "a little more" already like he did in the august 2018 direct). I only see Geno as the last smash fan favorite DLC, but honestly I'm ready for his worst outcome.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

It's DOOM or Skyrim, it's 50/50, no choice is wrong

I know, I meant that people shouldn't assume that it's guaranteed to be Doom.

For all we know we could end up with Vault Boy

 

[Will]

I know, I meant that people shouldn't assume that it's guaranteed to be Doom.

For all we know we could end up with Vault Boy

it was actually todd howard all along

 

[Deleted member]

I know, I meant that people shouldn't assume that it's guaranteed to be Doom.

For all we know we could end up with Vault Boy

Eh, get used to him. He looovveesss jumping to conclusions.

He firmly believes in the saying, "When there's smoke, there's a fire".

 

[Izanagi97]

Might as well brace myself for when 2020 starts because leaks posts will be out in full force now that vacation is over

 

[ProfPeanut]

Boy, remember how the Grinch Hoax saw absolutely no legal action from Nintendo? Good precedent right there.

And just so we can nip this revisionism in the bud, plenty of Ultimate music tracks were being uploaded before launch because of the pirated version, and almost none of them survive to this day.

 

[Deleted member]

Might as well brace myself for when 2020 starts because leaks posts will be out in full force now that vacation is over

Mostly for Season 2, but yeah.