Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Deleted member]

He’s not a piggybacked and he didn’t say there will be a Guaranteed reveal at the game awards

Everyone in the know was saying there wasn't going to be a reveal though. Just another set of things others have said or known before Sabi yet they took credit for. I don't trust them for sure.

 

[Deleted member]

Everyone in the know was saying there wasn't going to be a reveal though. Just another set of things others have said or known before Sabi yet they took credit for. I don't trust them for sure.

I never saw anyone say that there was no reveal before sabi did

 

[Night Gale]

Indies are not toast

Except for when they are. Food Fantasy confirmed.

Anywho on the subject of No More Heroes, I almost forgot about f***ing Shinobu. She taunted a s***load while attacking like A2. I love that, bish. She would have the best aerials in the game.

Her development was more interesting than every other character in the series imo. She was a boss fight turned main character. She started off bratty but she lived by a strict honor code; she was a student and part-time assassin. Travis spared her life and she returned the favor and started idolizing him, similarly to how he idolized her deceased father. By the sequel, she was a deuteragonst whose behavior mellowed out but she was still arrogant as f*** in battle. She also tried to adopt a few of Travis's mannerisms and developed romantic feelings for him which weren't reciprocated. By Travis Strikes Again, she's teaching that Bushido s*** to kids. The student became the teacher.

Her redesigns kept improving as well. The gothic lolita outfit in Desperate Struggle was an improvement from her first one. Her yellow outfit in Travis Strikes Again is a reference to Bruce Lee's Game of Death and is superior than the other two.

 

[Megadoomer]

This is where I stop listening to fatman

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Indies are not toast

Don't bring off-site drama into this thread. Try to treat other people the way that you'd want to be treated; I doubt you'd want people scouring your Twitter feed or Discord messages and badmouthing you behind your back.

 

[Deleted member]

This is where I stop listening to fatman

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Indies are not toast

Can we just not trust any of the leakers at the moment and just try to freely be on our own? I mean, no one is 100% right in this situation.

This is just getting overdramatic.

 

[Fenriraga]

Can we just not trust any of the leakers at the moment and just try to freely be on our own? I mean, no one is 100% right in this situation.

This is just getting overdramatic.

This is a speculation thread.

This is how we speculate. We don't have anything else to go off of, and until we do, this is what we'll discuss, yes.

 

[Deleted member]

This is a speculation thread.

This is how we speculate. We don't have anything else to go off of, and until we do, this is what we'll discuss, yes.

I see, well at least that's something. Better than not getting any info to work with.

 

[Izanagi97]

So why are you listening to Sabi? They haven't gotten anything right since.... Terry? But they didn't say anything until Verge already said something so Sabi was piggybacking off of Verge and even if they weren't Terry was always the obvious pick as he's SNK's posterboy.

Then there's Banjo who was leaked before by Shinobi then Sabi came in and piggybacked off of them and wanted to wait for someone more credible than themselves to give the go-ahead for Banjo.

Hero was the worst if not one of the worst kept secrets in Smash so everyone knew he was going to get in and nobody said anything about Joker not even Sabi. There's no reason to listen to Sabi or Verge let alone someone who knows absolutely nothing like Fatman.

Sabi's entire career was piggybacking and saying nothing of interest.

That and the crap that happened earlier this month which I won't talk about due to the drama rule

 

[Megadoomer]

I think it generally helps to take any alleged leaker/insider/person with access to insiders with a grain of salt, or a whole salt shaker's worth of salt. I don't think anybody's been completely accurate even if we just limit it to Smash (maybe Shinobi from ResetEra, but that's because as far as I know, they only posted one or two Smash leaks (that Ultimate was being properly revealed at E3 and that Banjo was coming to Smash; as far as I know, that could be due to ties with whoever organizes E3, as opposed to Nintendo) and hasn't said anything else on the topic), and I know that it's easy to get caught up in the hype, especially if someone with a reputation is claiming (or hinting) that a character that you support is coming to Smash.

At least the months-long game of Guess Who seems to have stopped.

 

[Deleted member]

At least the months-long game of Guess Who seems to have stopped.

Hmmm...does it mean that we'll get the Direct earlier in the long run?

 

[Megadoomer]

Hmmm...does it mean that we'll get the Direct earlier in the long run?

Who knows? I hope that we'll get it in the next week or two - we know nothing about Nintendo's 2020 line-up, and there's been a Nintendo Direct in late December or early January for every year but 2019.

 

[perfectchaos83]

I don't believe every single thing said by Nintendo employees is a hint. But when we do get an actual hint it's quite a rare sight.

Remember this tweet?

There was a problem fetching the tweet

That's not a hint. That's a dad joke.

 

[Deleted member]

late December or early January

Matter of time then.

 

[MissingGlitch]

I think it generally helps to take any alleged leaker/insider/person with access to insiders with a grain of salt, or a whole salt shaker's worth of salt. I don't think anybody's been completely accurate even if we just limit it to Smash (maybe Shinobi from ResetEra, but that's because as far as I know, they only posted one or two Smash leaks (that Ultimate was being properly revealed at E3 and that Banjo was coming to Smash; as far as I know, that could be due to ties with whoever organizes E3, as opposed to Nintendo) and hasn't said anything else on the topic), and I know that it's easy to get caught up in the hype, especially if someone with a reputation is claiming (or hinting) that a character that you support is coming to Smash.

At least the months-long game of Guess Who seems to have stopped.

One thing's for sure is that the idolization of leakers is really starting to get out of hand and at the point of being creepy.

A main reason I left the Geno thread was because of the idolization Fatman gets. Like yikes, they hang on his every word.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

So some people are speculating the Joker image might be hinting towards Phoenix Wright given the whole "Objection!".

I'd love for that to be true but remember how everyone assumed the Rathalos image hinted at Isaac. Look how that turned out. I'd keep expectations low.

There is a small possibility though and hoping its true given Stage Builder Theory (Dragon stages and witch stage) hinted atand

Vergeben deconfirmed Phoenix already, so probably not.


Taking this into account, if this truly was 100% a hint (which it probably isn’t), a different character came to my mind because of this.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Vergeben deconfirmed Phoenix already, so probably not.

Ever since the whole many company deconfirmation fiasco and getting his sources messed up I don't really rely on Vergeben at this point. At this point were back to square one again.

 

[SneakyLink]

The trick to speculation is to always expect the least likely outcome (or no outcome at all).

That's why I now think the Nought and Crosses from the 1951 video game classic "Noughts and Crosses" is our DLC 5.

 

[StormC]

One thing's for sure is that the idolization of leakers is really starting to get out of hand and at the point of being creepy.

A main reason I left the Geno thread was because of the idolization Fatman gets. Like yikes, they hang on his every word.

Calling Fatman a leaker is a stretch, anyway.

 

[Izanagi97]

Calling Fatman a leaker is a stretch, anyway.

I just find his posts interesting to read even though he isn't a leaker (hell, I'm pretty sure he admitted he wasn't one... more than once), just someone speculating. Then again, that won't stop people from treating him like a leaker which often results in people acting like stupid assholes.

 

[MissingGlitch]

Calling Fatman a leaker is a stretch, anyway.

You can only hide behind "I'm just speculating" for so long while saying "Well my sources are saying..."

He may not call himself one. But he's doing what Verge and others do. So....

 

[Ben Holt]

I'm probably on team doubt for Fatmanonice. No track record. But I do believe Cacomallow is most likely real.
I still think our next reveal is a double reveal, and FP5 is KOS-MOS.

 

[Will]

What, did Fatman actually say something for once?

 

[Deleted member]

I'm probably on team doubt for Fatmanonice. No track record. But I do believe Cacomallow is most likely real.
I still think our next reveal is a double reveal, and FP5 is KOS-MOS.

I mean, Verge did say that even if it were real, it has no relation to FP5.

 

[Ura]

I think the "Western 3rd party" thing might be true and all but i'm willing to bet it's for Fighter 6 instead. It would line up better with CacoMallow better of the Skyrim character or whatever was 76 and Geno was 77.

 

[Deleted member]

I think the "Western 3rd party" thing might be true and all but i'm willing to bet it's for Fighter 6 instead. It would line up better with CacoMallow better of the Skyrim character or whatever was 76 and Geno was 77.

Agreed. Seeing how everyone was happy about BK and Western reps would probably make Sakurai ask for more of them. Would definitely make sense considering that all of this lines up perfectly.

 

[Deleted member]

I mean, Verge did say that even if it were real, it has no relation to FP5.

I believe that was sabi who said that

 

[Deleted member]

I believe that was sabi who said that

Oh. My bad. Damn my birdbrain memory.

I'm...off. Have better stuff to do atm.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Sabi@New_WabiSabi
https://twitter.com/New_WabiSabi/status/1210633123471360001

Not exactly sure why anybody is still taking the stuff this guy says as leaks.

Oh, the irony...

 

[Ura]

Agreed. Seeing how everyone was happy about BK and Western reps would probably make Sakurai ask for more of them. Would definitely make sense considering that all of this lines up perfectly.

Yeah and IIRC, Sakurai mentioned in his Banjo column his satisfaction working with a western studio like Microsoft, also wishing to do more in the future. If he's saying that then, chances are that there wasn't another western third-party on the roster until more DLC was decided. Hence why I feel the Skyrim character is likely Fighter 6 and Geno 7.

 

[nessdeltarune00]

After what Sabi said I don’t think there should be any reason to trust Fatman at this point.

However, the more that I think about it, there is one character that I believe might actually have a non zero percent chance at FP5. I have been trying to not to let my hopes (pun intended) get up too much, but idk at this point, lol.

Since you probably can guess who I am talking about (A DR protagonist since Monokuma is supposedly deconfirmed), here are some of the reasons why. (Tried to sort the list from strongest to weakest points)


1. Sakurai loves the series. To the point where he even wrote a congratulatory letter to Kodaka when he opened up a new studio. That is the biggest point to his favor so far imo. I know it is a meme at this point for “Sakurai loves this game, X confirmed for Smash!”. But when 3 out of the 4 characters so far have fallen under this category, this does nothing but help ones chances of getting in.


2. Taking Vergeben and Sabis list into account, he is technically still in the running. I posted a list of characters awhile back that could still be in the running if Sabis comment about FP5 had merit to it. As long as he doesn’t get deconfirmed, the amount of competition dropping does nothing but help his chances.

3. Since Spike and Nintendo have worked together in the past, (Mystery Dungeon, I believe Cadence of Hyrule as well but I’m not sure) negotiations probably wouldn’t be too much of a problem at all.

4. There was a Danganronpa Switch trilogy listing on Amazon Japan found last February (Keep in mind this was after the pass was decided) before it was taken down. Quite frankly, this definitely could’ve been a mistake, but if it really was real, maybe it could get announced in the January Direct? Alongside you know who?


There is also that Sakurai Joker tweet that imo could’ve been interpreted a certain way. But if its not a bone worth biting, I don’t see why I should put it in as potential points to his favor. Also, I know some people may think that Monokuma might’ve been the only possible option, but 9 times out of 10, Sakurai usually picks protagonists first (hence why we got Hero before Slime, despite the latter being an icon).


I know my reasoning might be flimsy to some of you. But idk, combining all of this together, maybe there could be something to it? I hope so. But who knows, maybe my bias is just clouding my judgement, lol.

 

[StormC]

You can only hide behind "I'm just speculating" for so long while saying "Well my sources are saying..."

He may not call himself one. But he's doing what Verge and others do. So....

What I'm saying is his sources are trivial to begin with considering he has no proven track record. I knew Banjo would be in Smash for a whole year before his reveal but I don't consider myself a leaker because I didn't actually leak anything.

 

[Ben Holt]

I happen to be a tried and true leaker.
I predicted that FP5 would be revealed either before or after Christmas Day 2019. That claim has been vindicated, as Christmas has passed without a reveal.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

How the **** are people still believing Cacomallow when it's been proven that people can make mods that look very similar, proving it's possible to makea a fake mii costume and fake mii helmet? The debug mode thing for time isn't even accurate to the Ken image

 

[Ben Holt]

How the **** are people still believing Cacomallow when it's been proven that people can make mods that look very similar, proving it's possible to makea a fake mii costume and fake mii helmet? The debug mode thing for time isn't even accurate to the Ken image

The fact that all the replications were N64-quality models.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

The fact that all the replications were N64-quality models.

I certainly don't remember that, people would have dismissed the mod because of that but people were instead talking about how it isn't a perfect 1-to-1, not realizing that not even the Smash team would be able to perfectly replicate the leak because of how modeling works

 

[MissingGlitch]

How the **** are people still believing Cacomallow when it's been proven that people can make mods that look very similar, proving it's possible to makea a fake mii costume and fake mii helmet? The debug mode thing for time isn't even accurate to the Ken image

I really don't think the whole "it can be modded so it is modded so it's fake" mindset is really fair in deciding if something is fake or not.

 

[Ben Holt]

I certainly don't remember that, people would have dismissed the mod because of that but people were instead talking about how it isn't a perfect 1-to-1, not realizing that not even the Smash team would be able to perfectly replicate the leak because of how modeling works

I'm not saying that the Cacomalllow leak is even PROBABLY true.
I just lean toward real because it's concordant with other facts.
1. Bethesda has openly said that they've talked to Nintendo about Smash.
2. An old leak that predicted Mii Costumes for Rocket Grunt and Goemon (not exactly safe picks) also predicted a Mallow hat. I believe this to be 90% likely true, which is why I deem Geno "imminent".

Plus, the leak itself is of decent believability in a vacuum.

This leads me to 60% probability of the leak being legit. Even if it isn't, Doom Slayer and Geno are both extremely likely anyway.

 

[Will]

the leak itself is of decent believability in a vacuum.

this is how omni fooled millions

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I really don't think the whole "it can be modded so it is modded so it's fake" mindset is really fair in deciding if something is fake or not.

The main argument on why it had to be real was because modders couldn't make stuff like it. Then it turned out modders can indeed make it alongside the fact the debug mode didn't add up to the Ken leak, which it was clearly piggybacking off. The main argument behind it dying alongside the inconsistency really hurts credibility

I'm not saying that the Cacomalllow leak is even PROBABLY true.
I just lean toward real because it's concordant with other facts.
1. Bethesda has openly said that they've talked to Nintendo about Smash.
2. An old leak that predicted Mii Costumes for Rocket Grunt and Goemon (not exactly safe picks) also predicted a Mallow hat. I believe this to be 90% likely true, which is why I deem Geno "imminent".

Plus, the leak itself is of decent believability in a vacuum.

This leads me to 60% probability of the leak being legit. Even if it isn't, Doom Slayer and Geno are both extremely likely anyway.

The former is a 'no ****' argument because name 5 people who don't want their character in Smash. And the second point you maoe leaves out that the source missed out on the Sans detail, proving that if they're legit, they don't have the full picture and how that source apparantly has a habit of making **** up

 

[Ben Holt]

this is how omni fooled millions

Skepticism is a healthy quality to have.
But realize that "evidence" in a favor of something like a leak is different than "evidence" in favor of a scientific hypothesis.
Scientific evidence must point to only one reasonable conclusion beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Evidence for things like leaks are not irrefutable proof but rather general hints toward possible outcomes.

In this sense, the Cacomalllow leak has more evidence than most leaks.