If anything, there being no announcement at the Game Awards has me believing in Vergeben even more. He never said there would be a character revealed there. And many of the characters that he "deconfirmed" are BIG characters. If Nintendo had some crazy character to reveal (like Sora, Dante, Crash, Doomslayer, Kratos, etc), I strongly believe it would have been revealed at the show. No reveal leads me to believe that whoever it is will make for a smaller, less impactful reveal - something that would make more sense during a Nintendo Direct than at The Game Awards.
So my faith in Vergeben has not faltered. But I do feel fairly confident that FP5 will mostly cater specifically to the Nintendo/Smash crowd or it's another completely random curveball.
More and more, I'm leaning towards a Nintendo rep. Xenoblade, Fire Emblem, Pokemon, or Zelda. Mayyybe... Waluigi?