Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[RileyXY1]

I'm pretty sure Terry is the favored SNK rep considering he's the face of Fatal Fury, is arguably the most popular SNK character (poll from 2018), and is often considered to be SNK's mascot. I don't think Mai is likely to appear in Smash unfortunately due to the heavy emphasis on her cleavage which probably wouldn't be allowed in Smash (if Camilla's censored spirit is something to go off of). Of course they could just remove that aspect though it's one of Mai's most iconic features that removing it would probably feel lame to most people.

I think the same way about SNK and also Tales. If any Tales rep is getting in, it's Lloyd Irving. He's the most popular hero in the series, especially in the West, and he is a popular suggestion for Smash Bros. Yuri Lowell is the only other Tales rep I can see getting in, especially considering that his game got a recent release.

 

[Ornl]

(18 - SNK rep (≈ 25% RTC) : Mai Shiranui is the favorite.)

I'm pretty sure Terry is the favored SNK rep considering he's the face of Fatal Fury, is arguably the most popular SNK character (poll from 2018), and is often considered to be SNK's mascot.

The favorite of the ballot. According to the author on 5chan, Mai Shiranui is the favorite of the ballot among the representatives of SNK. The summary of the ballot is presented as a rumor here.

 

[Sari]

(18 - SNK rep (≈ 25% RTC) : Mai Shiranui is the favorite.)

The favorite of the ballot. According to the author on 5chan, Mai Shiranui is the favorite of the ballot among the representatives of SNK. The summary of the ballot is presented as a rumor here.

Ah, you were referring to her popularity in the 5chan leak. I thought you meant her overall popularity in general.

Honestly I'm pretty skeptical of the leak in general (I still think Terry would have higher priority both in the minds of fans and developers), but the fact that SNK is being brought up in Smash newcomer related conversations such as this thread makes me happy.

 

[Megadoomer]

(18 - SNK rep (≈ 25% RTC) : Mai Shiranui is the favorite.)

The favorite of the ballot. According to the author on 5chan, Mai Shiranui is the favorite of the ballot among the representatives of SNK. The summary of the ballot is presented as a rumor here.

A random user on a Japanese message board seems about as reliable as a random user on this message board. That's not exactly a great source.

 

[Flyboy]

I genuinely feel that Velvet is not that unlikely as a Tales rep if they want someone recent and unique and popular. Yuri has recency and popularity with the remake. Lloyd has the iconic status. But Velvet would play differently from any other choice and would stand out. Plus I'm biased.

Resident Evil is very deserving. Dragon Quest Hero a la Koopalings has been a major rumor for a long time. This translated insider post is interesting and worth keeping an eye on.

 

[RileyXY1]

A random user on a Japanese message board seems about as reliable as a random user on this message board. That's not exactly a great source.

Yeah, you're right on that one. This rumor is just not very credible.

 

[SpectreJordan]

I’d Leon & Jill are fairly iconic overall. Especially when it comes to characters that are left; the only mega icons who aren’t in the game yet are Master Chief & Crash.

 

[GoodGrief741]

(5 channel user claims that the ballot was to be used for Smash5.
+ Reggie claims the DLC Fighters are unexpected.)



There are two potential examples to build on.
- Ballot : Petey Piranha. As an indication, she is in front of Tekken and Skull Kid.
> Nintendo Choice : Piranha Plant.
- Ballot : Shin Megami Tensei. As an indication, the total votes (including Jack Frost) up the license in front of Shovel Knight.
> Nintendo Choice : Joker.
Bonus :
- Ballot : Dragon Quest. As an indication, the total votes (including Slime) up the license in front of Tales.
> Nintendo Choice : Probably Erdrick.

If the logic would be to fire all the main heroes because they are expected, then the result would be radical.
This logic would remove all of Capcom's main heroes : Phoenix Wright, Monster Hunter, Amaterasu, and Leon S. Kennedy.
but would leave some doors open : other Okami 2 rep, Resident Evil rep.
This logic would remove Lloyd Irving, Hershel Layton, Jibanyan, Oliver (Ni no Kuni), Master Chief, Crash, Banjo, Ryu Hayabusa, Rayman, Arle Nadja, Shantae, Mai Shiranui...
but would leave some doors open : other Tales rep, Yokai-Watch rep, Katrielle Layton, Raving Rabbids and SNK rep.
Would that be a hecatomb ? Yes. Is fanboyism ready to mourn ? No. But predictions about Velvet, Nakoruru, and Resident Evil rep seem conform to this new logic.

Favorite parts of all this:

•taking a random 5ch leak at the most face value possible
•pretending to know how the ballot went
•somehow claiming Petey Piranha did well on the ballot
•actually implying that Nintendo/Sakurai saw the ballot results and decided to deliberately go against them
•still using RTC as if it represented the Smash fandom at large (plus, giving scores for characters I don't think we've rated)

 

[TheCJBrine]

I'm still not sure about Reggie's "new to the series" statement since he said something similar about Waluigi in an interview around the time of the "fans are disappointed in no Waluigi" thing.

Even if the characters are completely new to the series, though, that doesn't mean characters who were considered before (like Banjo-Kazooie) won't be in, because they would still be completely new to the series as they never made an appearance in it and "who never saw it coming" still doesn't apply here as it's based on opinion alone.

And if we're gonna talk leaks...PolarPanda has heard Banjo - her source only heard it from one person, but it does line up with what PapaGenos has heard and that IndieGamerChick person (not sure how reliable she is but Microsoft released an indie collection named after her).

 

[SpectreJordan]

I don’t know if we should really take Reggie’s line so seriously. It seemed just like PR talk to me; almost as if he was reaffirming that there’d be no veterans in the DLC, for anyone out there who didn’t know about “Everyone is here!” Already.

 

[RileyXY1]

I don’t know if we should really take Reggie’s line so seriously. It seemed just like PR talk to me; almost as if he was reaffirming that there’d be no veterans in the DLC, for anyone out there who didn’t know about “Everyone is here!” Already.

Yeah, and a similarly poorly worded comment during Brawl's prerelease caused people to think that Ness would be cut.

 

[Deleted member]

Reggie simply saying "these characters are new fighters" when that's a "no **** Sherlock" statement would be outright stupid.

 

[Austincot444]

Balloon fighter in smash would be cool. He has been around since the very beginning.

 

[Idon]

Okami 2

Wait what? Do you mean Okamiden or something else? As far as I know Okamk 2 doesn't exist.

 

[osby]

Wait what? Do you mean Okamiden or something else? As far as I know Okamk 2 doesn't exist.

True, but that's hardly the only wrong fact on that post.

 

[Deleted member]

Regarding the new 5ch leak,

There are a few things that I find weird with the leak, but honestly I feel you could make an actual argument for Nakoruru and Velvet.

For both of them, it could be simply the case that they were aiming to get more female characters into the cast. Plus we actually have quite a different perception of some characters in the west which may not make some choices seem viable, but for Japanese they would make a lot of sense.

Nakoruru from what I understand is the most popular girl from SNK and Samurai Showdown is getting a new title, so she wouldnt actually be coming out of nowhere. Plus something that I dont know if it has been mentioned before here in the thread is the fact that at least in Japan she is seen quite prominently alongside Terry, as SNK founded a non-profit organization with both as mascots: https://snk.fandom.com/wiki/Nakoruru_&_Terry_Club

For Velvet, you could that they wanted to represent the latest Tales in the franchise as a compromise due to Tales having several viable picks. Tales is a different situation compared to FF and DQ, as Tales most popular character depends heavily on the region for the most part, and also console somewhat. Yuri (Vesperia) and Leon (Destiny) are by far the most popular character in the Japanese character polls, they are so popular that they had to be removed from consideration as they pretty much dominated every poll:
https://www.siliconera.com/2017/06/04/tales-festival-2017-character-popularity-poll-results/ .
In the west, Lloyd is probably the most popular given that Symphonia is the most popular title here and he had a presence over the course of previous Smash games, but as shown in the poll I posted, he is not really that popular among the fanbase over in Japan with even Velvet coming above him. Yuri for better or for worse, didnt have that notoriety in the west due to Vesperia being somewhat locked to a console that wasn't very popular with JRPGs until very recently.

That said, the most notorious thing going on for this leak is pretty much the supposed poll results. While not saying that they are actually legit, the way they are presented seems quite plausible. You have several characters on it, some at the very top with really valid choices, some rounding the top 10 in popularity, some notorious picks on it. Plus having franchises listed in general instead of particular picks makes a lot of sense, considering a few franchises are in the situation of having several viable and popular characters on it so it would be more divided. Examples of this would be FF and Castlevania which were mentioned by Sakurai.

Results-wise like I mentioned before, there are a few oddities:
-the absence of Wolf/Star Fox unless the author forgot to include them for some reason
-it lists Okami instead of Amateratsu which is odd unless it also considered Chibiteratsu
-a few franchises that the author added afterwards
-the non-commital outside DQ content as Velvet, Nakoruru and the RE rep, were only mentioned as possibilities and nothing in concrete

Its an interesting effort if fake honestly.

 

[Austincot444]

Top 5 dlc picks

1. balloon fighter
2. bandana waddle dee
3. proto man
4. scorpion (very unlikely)
5. bass (as mega man's eco)

 

[RileyXY1]

Favorite parts of all this:

•taking a random 5ch leak at the most face value possible
•pretending to know how the ballot went
•somehow claiming Petey Piranha did well on the ballot
•actually implying that Nintendo/Sakurai saw the ballot results and decided to deliberately go against them
•still using RTC as if it represented the Smash fandom at large (plus, giving scores for characters I don't think we've rated)

Yeah. Using RTC to represent the opinions of the entire Smash fandom is a bad idea because the vast majority of Smash fans are not users of this forum.

 

[Deleted member]

Wait what? Do you mean Okamiden or something else? As far as I know Okamk 2 doesn't exist.

Interestingly enough, an actual Okami 2 (not Okamiden related) was almost a thing

 

[Idon]

Interestingly enough, an actual Okami 2 (not Okamiden related) was almost a thing

Why is life so cruel to things I like...

 

[GoodGrief741]

Why is life so cruel to things I like...

Don't despair yet. If the HD port did well, Okami 2 might just happen.

Now, where's my God Hand port Capcom?

 

[Idon]

Don't despair yet. If the HD port did well, Okami 2 might just happen.

Now, where's my God Hand port Capcom?

Gene for MvC4 let's go.

 

[Ornl]

taking a random 5ch leak at the most face value possible
•pretending to know how the ballot went
•somehow claiming Petey Piranha did well on the ballot
•actually implying that Nintendo/Sakurai saw the ballot results and decided to deliberately go against them
•still using RTC as if it represented the Smash fandom at large (plus, giving scores for characters I don't think we've rated)

Systematically take false intentions with incorrect assumptions. A reaction of sharing to invite to the collective reflection doesn't have to receive ad-personam mockery repeated tirelessly by a same user. It is obvious that challenging ideas is easy and encouraged, while the presentation of ideas requires more difficult thinking and is discouraged. All averages come from RTC (only the most recent), rounded to 0.5 decimal, and are an invitation to participation of the thread.

 

[TheCJBrine]

If we're going by polls, a big Reddit poll had Banjo-Kazooie as the winner late summer-autumn last year.

edit: https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/9ld79u/day_3434_results_randomized_smash_ultimate_poll/

(it's at least bigger than RTC, even if it's based on want alone)

 

[GoodGrief741]

Systematically take false intentions with incorrect assumptions. A reaction of sharing to invite to the collective reflection doesn't have to receive ad-personam mockery repeated tirelessly by a same user. It is obvious that challenging ideas is easy and encouraged, while the presentation of ideas requires more difficult thinking and is discouraged. All averages come from RTC (only the most recent), rounded to 0.5 decimal, and are an invitation to participation of the thread.

1) I wasn't mocking your person, I was mocking the things you were saying. Learn to tell those apart.
2) Better your grasp on English. Your sentences are awful to read.
3) Actually respond to criticism instead of providing vague, broad, philosophical statements on whatever. You're not responding to the arguments against your logic, you're just whining about people not listening to you when you don't listen to them.

That's my advice for you. Take it or leave it.

 

[Sari]

Nakoruru from what I understand is the most popular girl from SNK and Samurai Showdown is getting a new title, so she wouldnt actually be coming out of nowhere. Plus something that I dont know if it has been mentioned before here in the thread is the fact that at least in Japan she is seen quite prominently alongside Terry, as SNK founded a non-profit organization with both as mascots: https://snk.fandom.com/wiki/Nakoruru_&_Terry_Club

Woah I never knew about the Nakoruru & Terry club. It really helps to show how prominent of a character she is to the company.

Also I just realized that there isn't a Nakoruru support thread. Granted I'm just about 100% sure the leak with her is fake but I think I'll still make one to help get her name out there.

All averages come from RTC (only the most recent), rounded to 0.5 decimal, and are an invitation to participation of the thread.

The main issues with RTC is that the sample size for each day (about 20-40 people) is really small and its limited to people who use this site people who frequent the Smash Ultimate newcomer subforum. There is also the issue of how there is no clear range for percents, so for example the phrase "I don't think they have a chance at all" could mean a 0% score or a 10% depending on who you ask.

If you want to be taken seriously on this site I would recommend to just stop using RTC percentages as they are very inaccurate and in no way represent the entire Smash Bros fanbase (or even SmashBoards for that matter).

 

[Deleted member]

If we're going by polls, a big Reddit poll had Banjo-Kazooie as the winner late summer-autumn last year.

edit: https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/9ld79u/day_3434_results_randomized_smash_ultimate_poll/

(it's at least bigger than RTC, even if it's based on want alone)

While the RTC is a bad way to rate characters, this "poll" is also awful overall.

This was not a poll but rather a tournament as it done in a bracket format, which made characters face one vs one rather than being a general consensus. If you wanted an actual poll, there was a poll by SSBUNews done a while ago.

Polling and statistics are an actual science, despite what people believe, which in general the Smash fanbase is actually awful at making.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Reggie's statement is just simply saying that the DLC characters are newcomers. It's best not to go into it like how the Smash fanbase usually does when it comes to developer's wordings and phrases,

 

[RileyXY1]

Reggie's statement is just simply saying that the DLC characters are newcomers. It's best not to go into it like how the Smash fanbase usually does when it comes to developer's wordings and phrases,

Yeah. It's best not to overanalyze things and take people's words and make them mean things that they don't actually mean. Ness fans sadly had to deal with this before with the infamous "up until now" comment. When Sakurai said that, he meant that Ness was no longer the only representative of the Mother franchise in Smash. But, people took it to mean that Ness was outright cut and replaced with Lucas. Not helping was the fact that Sakurai actually wanted to replace Ness and Lucas in Melee, but Mother 3's development cycle forced Sakurai to keep Ness.

 

[Curious Villager]

Why would he have to say such an obvious thing though? As Golden said, the whole marketing for Smash Ultimate was the fact that all past fighters are back.
Then again, that's Nintendo for you I guess...

 

[thisjustin2001]

Kinda unrelated, but Curious Villager, I love the part of your signature that says "at least give the Piranha Plant a bandana". I saw that and I just started laughing. I needed that, haha.

Does anyone think that German eShop leak with Joker, Chrono, Cuphead, Doomguy and Jibanyan as the Fighter Pass season 1 lineup could be real? It seemed really unlikely two weeks ago just because Cuphead was on it, but fast forward to now, and Cuphead is looking a lot more likely than he did before. Thoughts?

 

[RileyXY1]

Does anyone think that German eShop leak with Joker, Chrono, Cuphead, Doomguy and Jibanyan as the Fighter Pass season 1 lineup could be real? It seemed really unlikely two weeks ago just because Cuphead was on it, but fast forward to now, and Cuphead is looking a lot more likely than he did before. Thoughts?

I don't think so. Cuphead isn't as likely as people think he is.

 

[Curious Villager]

Does anyone think that German eShop leak with Joker, Chrono, Cuphead, Doomguy and Jibanyan as the Fighter Pass season 1 lineup could be real? It seemed really unlikely two weeks ago just because Cuphead was on it, but fast forward to now, and Cuphead is looking a lot more likely than he did before. Thoughts?

Wasn't there an interview where the Cuphead dev's where asked about Cuphead in Smash?
If he was in, I'd imagine that they would be under a strict NDA and wouldn't be allowed to say anything in regards to that subject.

 

[RileyXY1]

Wasn't there an interview where the Cuphead dev's where asked about Cuphead in Smash?
If he was in, I'd imagine that they would be under a strict NDA and wouldn't be allowed to say anything in regards to that subject.

Yeah. They said that they wanted him in.

 

[Curious Villager]

Yeah. They said that they wanted him in.

In that case, yeah he's most probably not in, at least not in this fighters pass.

 

[Austincot444]

Cuphead in smash would be lit! If he does make it in, maybe mugman will be his eco.

 

[thisjustin2001]

Another question for you guys. When do you think the next DLC fighter for Smash will be revealed? The last reveal we got was on December 7th if you can believe it, so it's been a pretty long time. Do you think we'll see the next fighter at e3? Earlier or later than e3? Let me know what you think!

 

[BZocky]

May I have permission to create a new thread for my most wanted newcomer? I'm interested in reviving interest in her character and featured series.
Everything needs major improvement, especially the topic that lacks important information such as a description/timeline of her featured games, current representation of her franchise in the series, why said series is important etc. and a conclusion/reasoning that isn't 'they're the next best thing'...
The user who wrote it only made about 30 posts from last May and hasn't been online since August leaving it dead in the water. I think it's safe to assume they won't be returning to it any time soon.

 

[Deleted member]

Another question for you guys. When do you think the next DLC fighter for Smash will be revealed? The last reveal we got was on December 7th if you can believe it, so it's been a pretty long time. Do you think we'll see the next fighter at e3? Earlier or later than e3? Let me know what you think!

There is the April update which will bring us to Ver. 3.0.0, apparently there is the stage builder and the Home Run Contest modes incoming. So I would expect either a small Smash direct or a general one and the possibility of being at least a newcomer being revealed is high.

May I have permission to create a new thread for my most wanted newcomer? I'm interested in reviving interest in her character and featured series.
Everything needs major improvement, especially the topic that lacks important information such as a description/timeline of her featured games, current representation of her franchise in the series, why said series is important etc. and a conclusion/reasoning that isn't 'they're the next best thing'...
The user who wrote it only made about 30 posts from last May and hasn't been online since August leaving it dead in the water. I think it's safe to assume they won't be returning to it any time soon.

I think you can ask for having the thread ownership transferred to you, but you should talk to a mod and try to contact the user first I think. Try asking here:
https://smashboards.com/threads/new...irectory-check-here-before-making-one.446333/

 

[TheCJBrine]

While the RTC is a bad way to rate characters, this "poll" is also awful overall.

This was not a poll but rather a tournament as it done in a bracket format, which made characters face one vs one rather than being a general consensus. If you wanted an actual poll, there was a poll by SSBUNews done a while ago.

Polling and statistics are an actual science, despite what people believe, which in general the Smash fanbase is actually awful at making.

honestly I forgot that, despite even seeing a character vs. character thing while searching for the results. Though, I don't think I realized it'd be bad, either.

derp.

Funnily enough, the SSBUNews poll/ballot's winners are the same, just with Isaac and Geno swapped. Their recent ballot hasn't finished yet, however...

-though, fan-polls probably won't mean much; while they could reflect the Ballot, they never come close to the Ballot in terms of how many votes are given.

In 2012, a huge poll on VGTribune was won by Skull Kid, Mega Man just behind according to a comment: http://vgtribune.com/smash-poll-2012-winner/ but, Skull Kid wasn't made playable in Smash 4 nor Ultimate...am sad.