Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

What Arby's do I need to go to to see this?

this was at anime expo last year, Arby’s does a lot of pop culture box art, but this was the biggest they ever did.

 

[cosmicB]

And it is quite funny I get put on the spot for badmouthing when you guys badmouth KOS-MOS many times in this thread. Hell, I even saw Fatman say insiders insult her.

I'll admit, hearing that was a bummer, but it would certainly be cathartic if they were wrong and she got in anyway.

I'm still new here, so I don't exactly know who to trust as far as insiders go which caused some drama in the Geno thread yesterday, but the presence of characters like Joker have clearly shown they aren't infallible. I doubt we'll get through this whole DLC wave without a few surprises even for the insiders.

 

[Droodle]

Correction: All XCX has is spirits, Elma included. There's Elma, Lin, Tatsu, Lao, and a skell. Not a lot of content, and the rest of your points still stand, but she is in the game.

Corrected

 

[Sysreq]

Anyway everybody look at this Nightmare statue made out of Arby’s boxes! Doesn’t really have to do with him being in Smash, but it’s pretty cool.View attachment 248840

Oh that was at AnimeExpo 2018! I saw it in person--it was pretty badass.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

It would be hilarious if the Namco character was Reiji and his spirit board had Lloyd, Heihachu, Nightmare and Kosmos.

 

[BlackInk]

While I agree with you; there's a dozen other characters that have always fit the mentality of being "niche" at the time, but getting talked about a ton anyways for Smash . It isn't just exclusive to Smash.

Geno? Has to deal with bigger franchises like FF and DQ; and even now he faces competition with the Bravely series, Drakenguard/Nier, Kingdom Hearts (kinda), Chrono, and Secret of Mana. Most of his popularity came from a small video back in the Brawl days. Despite this, people still don't stop talking about him.

Banjo-Kazooie? I know we like to meme about it; but Minecraft is absolutely huge and a series that both Nintendo and Microsoft seem to care about. Add Halo on top of that, and Banjo-Kazooie has tons of competition in order to be a Microsoft rep. Despite this, people didn't stop talking about Banjo after Phil supported them in Smash.

Isaac? Golden sun was never an amazingly selling game (it did sell though), and Nintendo has tons of other characters that people want. Actually, Isaac and KOS-MOS are in a very similar position Smashwise. Isaac still got talked about a ton until he was deconfirmed.

Ridley? I know Metroid is popular in the West, but in Japan it is absolutely nothing. Even Sakurai joked about Terry being as obscure as Samus back in the N64 days. That said, people talked about Ridley a ton; even when the series was at its lowest point.

K. Rool? It had been over 20 years since he had been in a game, but DK fans felt like they were getting shafted so they were really vocal about asking for more DK representation. Even though, K. Rool wasn't really an active character.

So as you can see, "popular" requests in the Smash community do not always translate to "popular" characters outside the Smash community.

That said, KOS-MOS has burst into popularity very recently (definitely above what would be expected of her at the very least). And I think there are a bunch of reasons for it:

-Xenoblade was criminally underrepresented in the base roster of Smash Ultimate, most people will agree with this. You're telling me one of the most advertised games on the Wii U, and early Switch lifespan got no new characters in Smash Ultimate?
-Xenoblade 2 was really successful, it's sold around 2 million by now; which is not that far below the likes of Persona 5.
-Sakurai has stated that he loved Xenoblade 2.
-All the content that Xenoblade 2 got was a couple spirits of the main characters (not even all the major characters), some tracks that were oddly mixed (and not even some of the most popular music in the game), and 2 Mii costumes (one which you had to pay $25 for).
-Xenoblade X's "main" character is not in the game in anyway shape or form, as well as missing tons of music. You're telling me Elma didn't at least even get a single spirit.
-Many people dismiss Rex and Pyra's chances post-pass, because "You already pay $25 dollars for Rex, anyways".

-And now, XB1:DE gets announced as the final announcement of the September 4th direct. Clearly showcasing that Nintendo cares about the Xeno series, enough to end the direct with it.
-Monolith-Soft's 20th anniversary poster had KOS-MOS front and center, and Namco also has a good relationship with the character.
- and then, KOS-MOS gets a (most likely fake, but still could have a 1% chance to be true) leak, that does not get dis-confirmed by known insiders. The leak then starts to catch some popularity.

-So now you have Xeno fans, who got shafted hard in terms of base game supporting her inclusion rather vocally. That creates some discussion about the character, and so people look into the character and think the character is cool and start supporting them; and so KOS-MOS's fanbase starts growing rapidly. And as more and more characters get disconfirmed and KOS-MOS doesn't, her fanbase continues to grow. And as the next character's chances of being Bamco related increases, so does KOS-MOS's fanbase continues to grow even more.

-I guarantee you that if Xeno was better represented in the base game KOS-MOS's popularity wouldn't have exploded like after the cat leak.

TL;DR: KOS-MOS's popularity primarily stems from a similar reason to why K. Rool and Ridley were so popular as requests. Fans of the series think that their series is underrepresented, and so they are more vocal with their support for certain characters related to that series.

Putting 25$ on a constellation prize for a character that could’ve been free in the base roster was exactly why I thought Kosmos was somewhere in the pass. Nintendo has an image and a big focus on satisfying dlc, they don’t want to lose either of them from a mii costume.

 

[Lamperouge]

i guarantee you if rex and pyra got in smash they would've held that monado that isn't in their game with full valor

That could still work considering

Spoiler: XC2

Pyra/Mythra are basically a Monado.

 

[AntagonisticGalaxyCetacea]

Yeah I think I just saw the ugly side of Smashboards again.

People basically trying to cancel each other because of Smash character preferences is always a joy!

̶N̶O̶ ̶I̶T̶ ̶R̶E̶A̶L̶L̶Y̶ ̶I̶S̶N̶'̶T̶ ̶P̶L̶E̶A̶S̶E̶ ̶J̶U̶S̶T̶ ̶T̶A̶L̶K̶ ̶A̶B̶O̶U̶T̶ ̶A̶ ̶C̶H̶I̶L̶D̶R̶E̶N̶'̶S̶ ̶P̶A̶R̶T̶Y̶ ̶G̶A̶M̶E̶ ̶I̶N̶ ̶A̶ ̶C̶I̶V̶I̶L̶ ̶M̶A̶N̶N̶E̶R̶ ̶C̶H̶R̶I̶S̶T̶ ̶A̶L̶M̶I̶G̶H̶T̶Y̶

That's what happens when you have the Debbie Downers that love to rain on people's parades

 

[Deleted member]

Okay, noob question. Who is Nightmare? The only Nightmare I know is the one from Kirby, who is obviously not who everyone's talking about

Nightmare is the mascot of an ongoing fighting game series, Soul Calibur. I don't know a lot of the lore nowadays now that I've moved away, but basically, there are two swords, Soul Calibur and Soul Edge. Soul Calibur is like the "light isn't always good" sword and Soul Edge is the "****ing evil cursed sword" sword.

Nightmare is basically a living incarnation of Soul Edge who wants to destroy the world in whatever way he can. He's clearly evil, but he's emblematic of the series by being the character that represents the one of two swords the series hypes up and is a big player in the overall story. I'm not sure why specifically he is the mascot for the series, but he's certainly recognizable because of it.

 

[ES. Dinah]

I'll admit, hearing that was a bummer, but it would certainly be cathartic if they were wrong and she got in anyway.

I'm still new here, so I don't exactly know who to trust as far as insiders go which caused some drama in the Geno thread yesterday, but the presence of characters like Joker have clearly shown they aren't infallible. I doubt we'll get through this whole DLC wave without a few surprises even for the insiders.

Reading all that made me extremely angry. I almost even went into the thread but it wasn't worth it.

 

[BlackInk]

You're not serious, are you? No way on Sakurai's green earth that you legitimately think that. But I gotta check just in case.

It was a great joke.

 

[N3ON]

But the Director HIMSELF trying to refresh the series and making it work over the last 20 years DOES make it a series. Xenogears didn't get off the ground as he had hoped, so he tried to start fresh rebooting the series as a set of interconnected games starting with Xenosaga (which was planned to be 6 games, but only ended up being 3). When that, too, failed (back in 2002, I believe) he tried again to reboot the series and came back with Xenoblade Chronicles. It's the same director trying different approaches to get his series off the ground (the most successful thus far being Xenoblade), but it is actually apart of the same series; just multiple reboots of it.

Not to mention that the man himself said as much in past interviews.

Well listen, you and I are at an impasse. But here's the thing.

If the guy who chooses the characters doesn't consider them the same series, that's really the beginning and the end of it. So from the practical side of things, it's moot. Not that I think it would really affect her chances either way. It might even hinder them if Sakurai thought there was already a character from her series included.

And from the fan perspective... I kind of mostly see people claim it's the same series... not as reasoning behind why they want the character, but mostly to justify her in the face of contention. People seem to want her just because they like the character or the game (or her gender), which are kind of more standard reasons than to better link a maybe-series. I mean most of the people who better want to represent the ""series"" tend to go for Elma (or, in the past, Rex). If the whole umbrella aspect was a big factor, I'd think you'd see more people gunning for Fei. At least a few.

So... at the end of the day it seems kind of irrelevant. I doubt it would help her odds, and I don't think it's a common reason people want her...

 

[Gamma Ray]

Don't we already have a Soul Calibur rep anyway? I clearly remember Link being in Soul Calibur II!

Gosh remembering playing that game on the Gamecube makes me feel old.

 

[Droodle]

That's what happens when you have the Debbie Downers that love to rain on people's parades

Looks like we need a badass, responsible, and loving character to beat some morals into the Smash fanbase.

 

[Will]

Nightmare is the mascot of an ongoing fighting game series, Soul Calibur. I don't know a lot of the lore nowadays now that I've moved away, but basically, there are two swords, Soul Calibur and Soul Edge. Soul Calibur is like the "light isn't always good" sword and Soul Edge is the "****ing evil cursed sword" sword.

Nightmare is basically a living incarnation of Soul Edge who wants to destroy the world in whatever way he can. He's clearly evil, but he's emblematic of the series by being the character that represents the one of two swords the series hypes up. I'm not sure why specifically he is the mascot for the series, but he's certainly recognizable in that regard.

Just give me Nightmare, man, it's over.

Looks like we need a badass, responsible, and loving character to beat some morals into the Smash fanbase. View attachment 248847

nevermind give me kiryu instead

 

[NobleClamtasm]

I'm not sure if anyone has commented on this, but I'm curious as to how Fatman came up with his alleged three frontrunners, (I'm talking about Lloyd, Nightmare and Sol). According to him, these are three characters who are circulated a lot within his insider circle. However, Sabi's sources directly contradict these rumors, with him saying "It seems like nobody has heard of Lloyd as FP5". Now, I know it's obvious that Sabi and Fatman have completely different leak avenues, but if both leakers are to be trusted, it proves that there is a massive black hole of information in at least one of their leaking sources.

I'm going to put both Sabi and Fatman in good faith and assume that both of them are telling the truth. If that's the case, can we really be so sure to deconfirm a character simply by the reasoning of "my sources hasn't heard of them"? If Sabi's sources have missed Lloyd, what does that say about Fatman's sources?

 

[hittheswitch]

I barely post here, but I wanted to remind everyone that Soul Calibur VI was revealed two years ago at the Game Awards. Maximilian's reaction to it was great, I can't imagine how he would react if Nightmare was revealed for Smash this year.

 

[cosmicB]

Reading all that made me extremely angry. I almost even went into the thread but it wasn't worth it.

Oh, I get it, trust me. It's not fun knowing the people that have more info than you are basically taking non-specific shots at you behind your back, but it is what it is. The best we can do is hope that they're wrong and the rumor mill is nothing more than an unreliable game of telephone.

 

[BlackInk]

I'm not sure if anyone has commented on this, but I'm curious as to how Fatman came up with his alleged three frontrunners, (I'm talking about Lloyd, Nightmare and Sol). According to him, these are three characters who are circulated a lot within his insider circle. However, Sabi's sources directly contradict these rumors, with him saying "It seems like nobody has heard of Lloyd as FP5". Now, I know it's obvious that Sabi and Fatman have completely different leak avenues, but if both leakers are to be trusted, it proves that there is a massive black hole of information in at least one of their leaking sources.

I'm going to put both Sabi and Fatman in good faith and assume that both of them are telling the truth. If that's the case, can we really be so sure to deconfirm a character simply by the reasoning of "my sources hasn't heard of them"?

Lloyd and sol are probably associated with incoming mii costumes or post-pass dlc. I expect at least two new Namco characters for this game.

 

[cosmicB]

I'm not sure if anyone has commented on this, but I'm curious as to how Fatman came up with his alleged three frontrunners, (I'm talking about Lloyd, Nightmare and Sol). According to him, these are three characters who are circulated a lot within his insider circle. However, Sabi's sources directly contradict these rumors, with him saying "It seems like nobody has heard of Lloyd as FP5". Now, I know it's obvious that Sabi and Fatman have completely different leak avenues, but if both leakers are to be trusted, it proves that there is a massive black hole of information in at least one of their leaking sources.

I'm going to put both Sabi and Fatman in good faith and assume that both of them are telling the truth. If that's the case, can we really be so sure to deconfirm a character simply by the reasoning of "my sources hasn't heard of them"? If Sabi's sources have missed Lloyd, what does that say about Fatman's sources?

Isn't Fatman's source literally just Sabi's Discord channel? Or have I misunderstood things with him? If not, then the source would be Sabi him/herself.

 

[GoodGrief741]

For anyone claiming the three Xeno series are one big series (somehow owned by three different companies) I think you should keep in mind that Xenoblade wasn't even meant to be called that until Iwata changed the name to honor the studio's previous titles. The original series name is Monado.

Like, if you want to ignore basic copyright law, I think it's still pretty clear that they're separate series, with the similarities stemming from the devs being the same and them consciously self-homaging.

To me, that's like considering Demon's Souls, Dark Souls, Bloodborne, Sekiro, and Elden Ring all part of one franchise. It just isn't. At best, you have some spiritual succession going on.

I'm not sure if anyone has commented on this, but I'm curious as to how Fatman came up with his alleged three frontrunners, (I'm talking about Lloyd, Nightmare and Sol). According to him, these are three characters who are circulated a lot within his insider circle. However, Sabi's sources directly contradict these rumors, with him saying "It seems like nobody has heard of Lloyd as FP5". Now, I know it's obvious that Sabi and Fatman have completely different leak avenues, but if both leakers are to be trusted, it proves that there is a massive black hole of information in at least one of their leaking sources.

I'm going to put both Sabi and Fatman in good faith and assume that both of them are telling the truth. If that's the case, can we really be so sure to deconfirm a character simply by the reasoning of "my sources hasn't heard of them"?

Considering Fatman doesn't have contacts of his own (he's just a dude in Sabi's circle) and is known for baseless speculation while being awful at explaining his speculation is baseless, I think you have your answer there.

 

[Deleted member]

I'll admit, hearing that was a bummer, but it would certainly be cathartic if they were wrong and she got in anyway.

I know that feeling all to well . Shoot for the Dragon Quest dream ES. Dinah We got something to believe in over something to destroy.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Lloyd and sol are probably associated with incoming mii costumes or post-pass dlc. I expect at least two new Namco characters for this game.

So... Ragna's a thing then.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm not sure if anyone has commented on this, but I'm curious as to how Fatman came up with his alleged three frontrunners, (I'm talking about Lloyd, Nightmare and Sol). According to him, these are three characters who are circulated a lot within his insider circle. However, Sabi's sources directly contradict these rumors, with him saying "It seems like nobody has heard of Lloyd as FP5". Now, I know it's obvious that Sabi and Fatman have completely different leak avenues, but if both leakers are to be trusted, it proves that there is a massive black hole of information in at least one of their leaking sources.

I'm going to put both Sabi and Fatman in good faith and assume that both of them are telling the truth. If that's the case, can we really be so sure to deconfirm a character simply by the reasoning of "my sources hasn't heard of them"? If Sabi's sources have missed Lloyd, what does that say about Fatman's sources?

Fatman gets his info from Sabi's inner circle, and his words should not be taken as gospel, especially since they're only rumors and not confirmed leaks. He's, by his own admission, just a speculator, albeit slightly better informed than others, and he's gotten things wrong in the past.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm not sure if anyone has commented on this, but I'm curious as to how Fatman came up with his alleged three frontrunners, (I'm talking about Lloyd, Nightmare and Sol). According to him, these are three characters who are circulated a lot within his insider circle. However, Sabi's sources directly contradict these rumors, with him saying "It seems like nobody has heard of Lloyd as FP5". Now, I know it's obvious that Sabi and Fatman have completely different leak avenues, but if both leakers are to be trusted, it proves that there is a massive black hole of information in at least one of their leaking sources.

I'm going to put both Sabi and Fatman in good faith and assume that both of them are telling the truth. If that's the case, can we really be so sure to deconfirm a character simply by the reasoning of "my sources hasn't heard of them"? If Sabi's sources have missed Lloyd, what does that say about Fatman's sources?

Fatman issue is that he comments on speculation rather than stuff that is actually heard and is condescending towards certain characters, he jumps the gun a lot. Wonder why people are so keen in bringing him up.

 

[BlackInk]

Oh, I get it, trust me. It's not fun knowing the people that have more info than you are basically taking non-specific shots at you behind your back, but it is what it is. The best we can do is hope that they're wrong and the rumor mill is nothing more than an unreliable game of telephone.

What’s going on where?

 

[Will]

holy **** i keep forgetting Kiryu exists

Yakuza is an amazing set of games, it's just a shame we already have Joker and people will beat me up on the street if I bring up Kiryu because "uhm ackthually we already have a sega rep you sonic-loving-privileged tart" and they throw me off a bridge or something.

 

[Deleted member]

Yeah I think I just saw the ugly side of Smashboards again.

People basically trying to cancel each other because of Smash character preferences is always a joy!

̶N̶O̶ ̶I̶T̶ ̶R̶E̶A̶L̶L̶Y̶ ̶I̶S̶N̶'̶T̶ ̶P̶L̶E̶A̶S̶E̶ ̶J̶U̶S̶T̶ ̶T̶A̶L̶K̶ ̶A̶B̶O̶U̶T̶ ̶A̶ ̶C̶H̶I̶L̶D̶R̶E̶N̶'̶S̶ ̶P̶A̶R̶T̶Y̶ ̶G̶A̶M̶E̶ ̶I̶N̶ ̶A̶ ̶C̶I̶V̶I̶L̶ ̶M̶A̶N̶N̶E̶R̶ ̶C̶H̶R̶I̶S̶T̶ ̶A̶L̶M̶I̶G̶H̶T̶Y̶

Sorry for getting too heated there. I got some hard Geno thread flashbacks.

 

[cothero]

I barely post here, but I wanted to remind everyone that Soul Calibur VI was revealed two years ago at the Game Awards. Maximilian's reaction to it was great, I can't imagine how he would react if Nightmare was revealed for Smash this year.

This. It's also interesting to remember everyone that Link appeared in SC2 as a playable character in the Game Cube version.

 

[NintenZ]

I'm not sure if anyone has commented on this, but I'm curious as to how Fatman came up with his alleged three frontrunners, (I'm talking about Lloyd, Nightmare and Sol). According to him, these are three characters who are circulated a lot within his insider circle. However, Sabi's sources directly contradict these rumors, with him saying "It seems like nobody has heard of Lloyd as FP5". Now, I know it's obvious that Sabi and Fatman have completely different leak avenues, but if both leakers are to be trusted, it proves that there is a massive black hole of information in at least one of their leaking sources.

I'm going to put both Sabi and Fatman in good faith and assume that both of them are telling the truth. If that's the case, can we really be so sure to deconfirm a character simply by the reasoning of "my sources hasn't heard of them"?

Ngl Sol would actually make a ton of sense and I'd be REALLY hyped if he was announced.

It's really important to note that GG was actually one of the only 2D fighters to make any sort of impact in the 90's outside of Capcom or SNK ones, so in a way it would kinda complete the trifecta.

 

[GoodGrief741]

holy **** i keep forgetting Kiryu exists

Yakuza is an amazing set of games, it's just a shame we already have Joker and people will beat me up on the street if I bring up Kiryu because "uhm ackthually we already have a sega rep you sonic-loving-privileged tart" and they throw me off a bridge or something.

To be fair, by beating you up on the street they might simply be expressing their love for Yakuza as well.

Ngl Sol would actually make a ton of sense and I'd be REALLY hyped if he was announced.

It's really important to note that GG was actually one of the only 2D fighters to make any sort of impact in the 90's outside of Capcom or SNK ones, so in a way it would kinda complete the trifecta.

Mortal Kombat: Am I a joke to you?

(Holy **** Guilty Gear started out in the 90s?)

 

[NintenZ]

Sorry for getting too heated there. I got some hard Geno thread flashbacks.

It's okay you're forgiven.

Let's just try to all get around nicely since we're all here to have fun.

 

[BlackInk]

holy **** i keep forgetting Kiryu exists

Yakuza is an amazing set of games, it's just a shame we already have Joker and people will beat me up on the street if I bring up Kiryu because "uhm ackthually we already have a sega rep you sonic-loving-privileged tart" and they throw me off a bridge or something.

I taught them the yakuza methods of killing yakura rep supporters, just because it’s fun.

 

[AntagonisticGalaxyCetacea]

Ngl Sol would actually make a ton of sense and I'd be REALLY hyped if he was announced.

It's really important to note that GG was actually one of the only 2D fighters to make any sort of impact in the 90's outside of Capcom or SNK ones, so in a way it would kinda complete the trifecta.

Imagine if activating Dragon Install still gave him the theme song which overrides whatever song is playing on the stages. Would be hype for comebacks

 

[Will]

It's really important to note that GG was actually one of the only 2D fighters to make any sort of impact in the 90's outside of Capcom or SNK ones, so in a way it would kinda complete the trifecta.

There are a ton of fighters that are important to FGs in general, and there isn't really a trifecta. Maybe more a pentagon?

Street Fighter, [insert any SNK game], [insert any ArcSys game], Mortal Kombat, and Tekken are the pivotal pieces of the puzzle.

 

[Deleted member]

2D fighters

Tekken

Should we tell him?

 

[TheCJBrine]

And it is quite funny I get put on the spot for badmouthing when you guys badmouth KOS-MOS many times in this thread. Hell, I even saw Fatman say insiders insult her.

He said they do that to other characters too, including Shantae, whom is one he likes.

I'm not sure if anyone has commented on this, but I'm curious as to how Fatman came up with his alleged three frontrunners, (I'm talking about Lloyd, Nightmare and Sol). According to him, these are three characters who are circulated a lot within his insider circle. However, Sabi's sources directly contradict these rumors, with him saying "It seems like nobody has heard of Lloyd as FP5". Now, I know it's obvious that Sabi and Fatman have completely different leak avenues, but if both leakers are to be trusted, it proves that there is a massive black hole of information in at least one of their leaking sources.

I'm going to put both Sabi and Fatman in good faith and assume that both of them are telling the truth. If that's the case, can we really be so sure to deconfirm a character simply by the reasoning of "my sources hasn't heard of them"? If Sabi's sources have missed Lloyd, what does that say about Fatman's sources?

Fatman doesn’t have sources, he’s not a leaker. He has access to some of the same info as Sabi, as he helped Fatman get into an insider discord (I guess Sabi’s private discord). He speculates based off of the info he sees going around in there, and the insiders trust him, though admittedly he can be confusing sometimes and may backtrack but I think that’s because of new info they receive and whatever, plus the insiders also speculate. He just speculated Lloyd for FP5 since the insiders heard him and there seemed to be good things going for him.

 

[SpectreJordan]

I’m not really familiar with KOS-MOS, what makes her & Xenosaga so special that it deserves a Smash roster spot? Especially over the likes of Tekken, Tales, Soul Calibur & Dark Souls.

The character design is neat. But she’d feel out of place alongside the other third party characters IMO. From what I can see the Saga games didn’t review that well either, have they gained a cult following over time?

 

[cosmicB]

What’s going on where?

I'm referring to this post in the Geno thread. The whole exchange caused a bit of strife for me over there yeseterday, heh, so feel free to read it all on your own if you want.

Point being it's a bit off-putting, but I'm not going to go after people for things they say in private.

 

[BlackInk]

I’m not really familiar with KOS-MOS, what makes her & Xenosaga so special that it deserves a Smash roster spot? Especially over the likes of Tekken, Tales, Soul Calibur & Dark Souls.

The character design is neat. But she’d feel out of place alongside the other third party characters IMO. From what I can see the Saga games didn’t review that well either, have they gained a cult following over time?

This sounds just like the “Terry with a hat” garbage.