Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Superyoshiom]

The day any character makes it in because of meme culture... well that’ll be a dark day indeed.

Waluigi for Smash 5 boys

 

[WingedSupernova]

Waluigi for Smash 5 boys

Out of all the meme characters he's the one I'd actually laugh and be happy if he was added.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I don’t know what memes you’re talking about, Waluigi is legitimately the best character ever.

 

[David James]

Shrek will never die

Shrek takes Ogre!!!!
Playtime is ogre!!!

 

[WingedSupernova]

Shrek will never die

Shrek takes Ogre!!!!
Playtime is ogre!!!

Shrek's cousin is already in the game. His name is Wario.

 

[Crap-Zapper]

Shrek's cousin is already in the game. His name is Wario.

Soooome Wha Wha once told me...

 

[SmashChu]

I mean you say for the sake of doing it, others say because they're iconic gaming characters, and the truth is because it helps sell the game.

And once it stops aiding in sales, which likely will be no time soon, is when you'll see it curtail.

This assumption has existed for ages that guest characters will increase sales, but how about we actually look to see if thats the case.

Here are sales of Brawl and Smash 4. All of these numbers are taken from Nintendo's Investors Relation website
Brawl - 13.25 million
Smash 3DS - 9.16 million
Smash Wii U - 5.32 million

Now, in total, Smash 4 has sold more at 14.48 million; however, you'd expect two games to sell better than one game. One person could buy both games. Besides, the reason for guest characters is that they have a broad appeals, so we'd want more customers not just more sales.

Now, Nintendo has never, to my knowledge, released any breakdown of how many people bought either version. The best I could find was this poll from Source Gaming (https://sourcegaming.info/2015/03/16/mega-smash-4-poll-analysis-week-1-meet-the-hardcore-community/). From it, 61 percent owned both versions. So, we'll say 61 percent of Wii U owners also own the 3DS version as well.** If we do that, only 2.13 bought just the Wii U version. Add that to the 9.16 million for the 3DS, and we have 11.29 million, about 2 million less customers.

So does adding more characters increase sales? The answer is obviously no. At a minimum, we can say they have no affect, but Smash 4 adding Mega Man and Pac-Man and Ryu and Cloud did not bring in more people. So, if we are talking purely from a dollars and cents perspective, it would make more sense to not add guest characters. They come with increase direct (licensing fees) and indirect (legal cost) cost and they don't increase sales. Nintendo characters also act as a way to promote your own products. Whether or not it makes people happier is probably irrelevant as people will be upset either way (Sakurai responded to complaints about the lack of Nintendo characters). The only benefit seems to be headline grabbers, but with so few strong options, this doesn't look like a great benefit.

To close, the point is not to say if we will have guests, but to prove that the argument that more guest brings in more people is completely bogus. If anything, the people buying Smash are probably similar to the people buying it before guest were even added. It might explain why the most popular characters had a strong Nintendo relation and why we don't see any characters that come even remotely close to Mega Man or Sonic.

** Just want to point out this calculation is technically off as 60% is the number of people total. I used the Wii U as 60% since its the dependent variable in this scenario. Obviously, the 3DS sold better so there are more people who only own that game. Went with this calculation as, for a simple forum post, it gets the job done. Just point it out incase a math geek looks at this.

 

[IsmaR]

Using the Wii's install base vs the Wii U's, no duh that Brawl sold better. That has nothing to do with guest characters "selling the game."

If Brawl had Cloud, Mega Man, Ryu and the like, it would have sold even better than it did with just Snake/Sonic.

The 3DS is a different story given that most don't feel comfortable with a fighter on a handheld, and many saw it as supplementary to Wii U (Smash 4 on Wii U being the end-all be-all version used for tournaments, being on a home console, having more features/stages/etc., least).

 

[FlareHabanero]

You forgot the important detail that the Wii has a far bigger install base that both the 3DS and Wii U.

So by default Super Smash Bros. Brawl is going to sell a lot more due to the sheer numbers of Wiis sold alone.

 

[DNeon]

Are you seriously going to bring up sales between Brawl and 4 and make no mention of the flop the Wii U was? Doubly so when compared to the ubiquitous success of the Wii, that's just trying too hard to push an agenda.

 

[David James]

Using the Wii's install base vs the Wii U's, no duh that Brawl sold better. That has nothing to do with guest characters "selling the game."

If Brawl had Cloud, Mega Man, Ryu and the like, it would have sold even better than it did with just Snake/Sonic.

The 3DS is a different story given that most don't feel comfortable with a fighter on a handheld, and many saw it as supplementary to Wii U (Smash 4 on Wii U being the end-all be-all version used for tournaments, being on a home console, having more features/stages/etc., least).

Very true, not even the 3ds could save the wii u.

I believe that everyone is underestimating the switch and how hard they can push smash switch with more dlc and features

 

[SmashChu]

Using the Wii's install base vs the Wii U's, no duh that Brawl sold better. That has nothing to do with guest characters "selling the game."

If Brawl had Cloud, Mega Man, Ryu and the like, it would have sold even better than it did with just Snake/Sonic.

The 3DS is a different story given that most don't feel comfortable with a fighter on a handheld, and many saw it as supplementary to Wii U (Smash 4 on Wii U being the end-all be-all version used for tournaments, being on a home console, having more features/stages/etc., least).

First, let's run with this idea that it's just the install base. If that is true, then guest characters matter less because it means that the install base is what drives sales of Smash, not who's in it. Thus, it would be wiser to not have any guest since thats just unneeded cost. This would not support what NEON and you are saying.

And it's nice that you believe that if Brawl had Cloud, it would have sold more. It's fun to play make believe, but there is no basis in fact for that assumption. As I've shown, adding Cloud and Mega Man and Ryu did not increase sales of Smash. Between the 3DS and Wii U, you have an 80 million unit install base, so we aren't talking a drastic difference (like the Gamecube to Wii).

What do the facts tell us? It tells us that, at a minimum, guest characters have no effect on sales.

Are you seriously going to bring up sales between Brawl and 4 and make no mention of the flop the Wii U was? Doubly so when compared to the ubiquitous success of the Wii, that's just trying too hard to push an agenda.

I was responding to someone else who was making that claim that guest increase sales. Also, the 3DS has a 70 million install base.

 

[Smooth Criminal]

I love how SmashChu flaunts his degree and it still causes him to err on the side of the tree instead of the forest. It's almost like a couple of things: One, it's a piece of paper that means beans; or two, what I'm probably leaning hardest on, is that he really doesn't know jack **** and is just as clueless as the rest of us but he wants to sound smart. The install base being wildly different between consoles is kinda elementary and would directly impact sales. Like, astronomically.

Do I really need a piece of paper to pick that up?

Do me a favor, fam. Put that degree to actual good use and quibble away at your job, your actual job, whatever that may be. Even High Schoolers that frequent this place **** on your baseless assumptions, and that's sad.

Smooth Criminal

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

If we're going to compare sales of games with 3rd parties to see if sales mean anything, why are we not including Melee? The game without the 3rd parties? Melee is different from Brawl and the 4th gen titles in this regard.

According to a few different sites, it would appear Melee sold a bit over 7 million copies on the Gamecube. Melee obviously didn't have 3rd parties.

According to a few different sites, Brawl sold 13.25 million copies, almost double of Melee. This game, for the first time in the series, featured 3rd party characters. Did the sales increase because of the appearance of 3rd parties? Or is it a by product of having an incredible install base?

If it's because of an incredible install base, I'm not sure how that wouldn't apply to the difference in sales between Brawl and Wii U/3DS.

Not to mention there are a variety of other factors involved with the Wii U that made it a poor choice in comparison to the Wii.

EDIT: Some factors to include

>far smaller install base for Wii U
>Smash has always been a home console, couch co-op/ friends vs. friends game
>further 3rd party characters were revealed and developed late into the lifespan of the console, which already has a poor reputation among the gaming community. (Consumers aren't going to shell out $300+ for a console and then additional money for the DLC character. I believe this was taken into account when the decisions were made to create this content in the first place.)

 

[DNeon]

SmashChu When was the last time a fighting game sold well on handheld? There's more that goes into analysis than pointing at numbers and pointing out correlations.

You're just being obnoxious now saying that because we dispute your assertion it actually means the opposite is true. There is not one single thing that defines sales, but at the same time how can you say:

A) 20% less is a 'similar' install base

B) That install base is the only factor if sales still grew on a smaller base.

Stop just being contrarian

 

[Crap-Zapper]

Honestly, I rather think it was because internet was limited during Melee, plus the GameCube did not sell as well as the Wii did, I rather blame that for Brawl being double, not because of the third parties.

Third Parties were not much of a thing before Smash 4.
By that, I mean, Snake came because of Kojima begging Sakurai.
Sonic was the only real exception, because he got in due to high demand, and that it suddenly became possible, but by the price of delaying the game.

When Brawl first came out, we got the first bite of the apple, which open us to want more apples just like it.
Did anyone actually expect third parties for Brawl the same way as they were expected for Smash 4?

 

[Enchess]

I know this will only count as anecdotal evidence, but does anyone here know anyone who considered 3rd party characters a major reason why they bought Smash? Everyone I know either (1) didn't care about the 3rd parties, (2) groaned at them and would prefer them not be in (I even heard this reaction to '3rd parties' that are actually first parties like Shulk), or (3) really cared about them but already were planning on buying the next Smash before Sm4sh was even announced. I'm skeptical that 3rd parties contribute much of anything to sales and with how much the Wii sold and how poorly the Wii U sold the sales comparisons are all just meaningless.

 

[WingedSupernova]

I know this will only count as anecdotal evidence, but does anyone here know anyone who considered 3rd party characters a major reason why they bought Smash? Everyone I know either (1) didn't care about the 3rd parties, (2) groaned at them and would prefer them not be in (I even heard this reaction to '3rd parties' that are actually first parties like Shulk), or (3) really cared about them but already were planning on buying the next Smash before Sm4sh was even announced. I'm skeptical that 3rd parties contribute much of anything to sales and with how much the Wii sold and how poorly the Wii U sold the sales comparisons are all just meaningless.

I was infinitely more hyped for Smash 4 after Mega Man was announced. He was definitely one of the main reasons I bought the game and he was also the first one I picked when I booted it up the first time. Would I have bought the game anyway? Yeah, because it's freaking Smash Bros. Would I have enjoyed the game as much? No, probably not. IMO the best part of Smash 4 was the third party reveals and time I spent playing them.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

If third parties don't help sales, then why has Nintendo added them? Do they hate money? Even though they are known for some monumentally short-sighted and stubborn business decisions, I find it hard to believe that their accountants advised them to take a net loss on any aspect of the games.

 

[Enchess]

I was infinitely more hyped for Smash 4 after Mega Man was announced. He was definitely one of the main reasons I bought the game and he was also the first one I picked when I booted it up the first time. Would I have bought the game anyway? Yeah, because it's freaking Smash Bros. Would I have enjoyed the game as much? No, probably not. IMO the best part of Smash 4 was the third party reveals and time I spent playing them.

But that's kinda my point. Everyone I know who cares about them was planning to buy Smash anyway.

If third parties don't help sales, then why has Nintendo added them? Do they hate money? Even though they are known for some monumentally short-sighted and stubborn business decisions, I find it hard to believe that their accountants advised them to take a net loss on any aspect of the games.

They could, you know, think they help sales because of a misconception. I'm sure they thought Wii U using the 'Wii' branding would help sales, not confuse consumers. Companies sometimes don't understand their markets well. It's not even hard to think of other examples. Capcom thought that an action focus would help Resident Evil, but obviously that didn't work out and they had to return to their roots. Similar with Deadspace, only it died instead of getting a soft-reboot. I bring those examples up because, like 3rd party character inclusion, the 'common sense' that action increases sales and horror brings them down was based on everyone thinking it was true, not really on actual evidence.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

But that's kinda my point. Everyone I know who cares about them was planning to buy Smash anyway.



They could, you know, think they help sales because of a misconception. I'm sure they thought Wii U using the 'Wii' branding would help sales, not confuse consumers. Companies sometimes don't understand their markets well. It's not even hard to think of other examples. Capcom thought that an action focus would help Resident Evil, but obviously that didn't work out and they had to return to their roots. Similar with Deadspace, only it died instead of getting a soft-reboot. I bring those examples up because, like 3rd party character inclusion, the 'common sense' that action increases sales and horror brings them down was based on everyone thinking it was true, not really on actual evidence.

Part of my point was that I trust Nintendo accountants more on business decisions (in general) than random people on smashboards.

Since I'm making another post on this, I'll go ahead and point out another flaw with smashchu's argument. Where's the control? Ideally there would be an all-Nintendo smash game and a smash game with third parties identical in all other ways. That would be a fairer comparison. In lieu of that, we can look at the sales of third-party DLC and try to figure out how profitable it is.

 

[DNeon]

My argument for it would be that they have an indirect influence. It's a marketing ploy, they may not directly cause a person to buy the game but they fuel the hype engine and keep the conversation going more than 1st parties. This is especially relevant when it comes to DLC time.

 

[Enchess]

The thing with fueling the conversation is it only really works with gamers, who are the crowd who are likely to buy the game anyway. People who only play a few games don't even know which characters are 3rd party. Heck, I know hardcore PC and Xbox gamers who genuinely didn't realize Megaman and Pacman were 3rd party. They assumed they were Nintendo and didn't get what the big deal was at the reveals.

 

[SmashChu]

If we're going to compare sales of games with 3rd parties to see if sales mean anything, why are we not including Melee? The game without the 3rd parties? Melee is different from Brawl and the 4th gen titles in this regard.

According to a few different sites, it would appear Melee sold a bit over 7 million copies on the Gamecube. Melee obviously didn't have 3rd parties.

According to a few different sites, Brawl sold 13.25 million copies, almost double of Melee. This game, for the first time in the series, featured 3rd party characters. Did the sales increase because of the appearance of 3rd parties? Or is it a by product of having an incredible install base?

If it's because of an incredible install base, I'm not sure how that wouldn't apply to the difference in sales between Brawl and Wii U/3DS.

Not to mention there are a variety of other factors involved with the Wii U that made it a poor choice in comparison to the Wii.

EDIT: Some factors to include

>far smaller install base for Wii U
>Smash has always been a home console, couch co-op/ friends vs. friends game
>further 3rd party characters were revealed and developed late into the lifespan of the console, which already has a poor reputation among the gaming community. (Consumers aren't going to shell out $300+ for a console and then additional money for the DLC character. I believe this was taken into account when the decisions were made to create this content in the first place.)

There are two keys to analysis: level and trend. If the point is "Guest characters increase sales" then we should see a trend that reflects that. You point out Brawl which outsold Melee. Brawl had guest where Melee didn't. But Smash 4 sold less than Brawl when you adjust for double purchases. But Smash 4 had more characters than Brawl. So we don't have a trend because, if the assumption is true (all else considered equal), then we should see sales continuously rise in sales but we don't see that. Instead, it varies, so something else is causing the change. It also tells us that guest characters don't have an impact on the sales.

SmashChu When was the last time a fighting game sold well on handheld? There's more that goes into analysis than pointing at numbers and pointing out correlations.

You're just being obnoxious now saying that because we dispute your assertion it actually means the opposite is true. There is not one single thing that defines sales, but at the same time how can you say:

A) 20% less is a 'similar' install base

B) That install base is the only factor if sales still grew on a smaller base.

Stop just being contrarian

Then you don't understand how arguments work. Go look up Null and Alternative Hypothesis.

The hypothesis presented was "Guest characters increase sales." The Null Hypothesis is then "Guest characters do not increase sales." I ONLY have to show that there are guest characters do not increase sales. I don't necessarily need to show the specific impact or what else can cause the trend. I just need to show that it is something else.

Take install base. I, personally, don't think install base matters much to any games sales. But one could argue that it is the reason Smash 4's sales are less. Regardless of whether its a good point or not, it helps my argument. I'm only trying to prove the Alternative Hypothesis wrong, so if we prove that install base is what drives sales, then that proves my argument correct which is the Null Hypothesis. I don't have to agree with a new conclusion. I just need to prove the Null correct, which I did and which everyone else is doing for me as well without knowing.

I also want to point out the idea that "it sold less because it was on a handheld" is also bogus. Smash 3DS actually did better in Japan thanks to the game being on a handheld. Brawl only sold around 2 million in Japan. As of June 30 2015, Smash 3DS sold 2.5 million in Japan, and has likely sold at least 3 million in its lifetime there. If anything, the titles saw a greater decline in the US and Europe. (here is the article I wrote back then: https://sourcegaming.info/2015/10/18/smash-3ds-does-it-stack-up/)

 

[Big-Cat]

I think you're looking at this in a too scientific matter. There's way too many variables to make any conclusion. All marketing attempts are educated guesses.

 

[APC99]

There are two keys to analysis: level and trend. If the point is "Guest characters increase sales" then we should see a trend that reflects that. You point out Brawl which outsold Melee. Brawl had guest where Melee didn't. But Smash 4 sold less than Brawl when you adjust for double purchases. But Smash 4 had more characters than Brawl. So we don't have a trend because, if the assumption is true (all else considered equal), then we should see sales continuously rise in sales but we don't see that. Instead, it varies, so something else is causing the change. It also tells us that guest characters don't have an impact on the sales.

First off, Brawl selling better than 3DS / Wii U doesn't tell us anything beyond "Brawl sold better than 3DS / Wii U". To say that guest characters do or do not have an impact on sales is baseless speculation. You just just as easily argue that Brawl sold better because it had Snake. There's no way you can disprove that Snake's inclusion didn't influence sales, because there is no way to know why each copy of Brawl was purchased. There is no way to tell whether or not Brawl or 3DS / Wii U would have sold better or worse if they lacked guest characters.

Second off, guest characters do have their purpose. For all of the potential first-party newcomers in the world, none of them could even hope to match the level of buzz, hype, and coverage third-party guests receive. The only first-party addition that could have ever rivalled a third-party character was the return of Mewtwo.

It works like this:
> Add third-party character from *insert popular, iconic, important franchise here*
> People go ballistic online
> Fans of said franchise may check out Smash
> Fans of Smash may check out said franchise
> Exposure for both companies

That's the thought process for Nintendo, at least. Sakurai seems to mainly look at who'd be interesting characters in the Smash Bros. style, but for all we know, that's just PR talk.

Do I think there is a time limit on how long until third-party characters begin feeling boring? Yes. However, that seems to be a while away, and you seem to be so focused on the opportunity costs (yes, I took an economics class too) of getting third-party licenses, that you're ignoring everything positive from the addition of third-party characters, and resorting to contrarianism in order to prove yourself to this anonymous crowd.

As much as you try to justify it with sales and figures, it doesn't change the fact that it comes off as you just really don't want third-party characters yourself, and don't really care if other people enjoy it. And guess what? That's fine. You're allowed to not like characters, or disagree with the actions of a developer. I just think your argument needs a bit more time in the oven and working out the kinks, otherwise you might come off as conceited and disregardful when you don't intend to.

I hope you take my constructive criticism of your argument to heart and find it in yourself to consider my viewpoint.

 

[David James]

This assumption has existed for ages that guest characters will increase sales, but how about we actually look to see if thats the case.

Here are sales of Brawl and Smash 4. All of these numbers are taken from Nintendo's Investors Relation website
Brawl - 13.25 million
Smash 3DS - 9.16 million
Smash Wii U - 5.32 million

Now, in total, Smash 4 has sold more at 14.48 million; however, you'd expect two games to sell better than one game. One person could buy both games. Besides, the reason for guest characters is that they have a broad appeals, so we'd want more customers not just more sales.

Now, Nintendo has never, to my knowledge, released any breakdown of how many people bought either version. The best I could find was this poll from Source Gaming (https://sourcegaming.info/2015/03/16/mega-smash-4-poll-analysis-week-1-meet-the-hardcore-community/). From it, 61 percent owned both versions. So, we'll say 61 percent of Wii U owners also own the 3DS version as well.** If we do that, only 2.13 bought just the Wii U version. Add that to the 9.16 million for the 3DS, and we have 11.29 million, about 2 million less customers.

So does adding more characters increase sales? The answer is obviously no. At a minimum, we can say they have no affect, but Smash 4 adding Mega Man and Pac-Man and Ryu and Cloud did not bring in more people. So, if we are talking purely from a dollars and cents perspective, it would make more sense to not add guest characters. They come with increase direct (licensing fees) and indirect (legal cost) cost and they don't increase sales. Nintendo characters also act as a way to promote your own products. Whether or not it makes people happier is probably irrelevant as people will be upset either way (Sakurai responded to complaints about the lack of Nintendo characters). The only benefit seems to be headline grabbers, but with so few strong options, this doesn't look like a great benefit.

To close, the point is not to say if we will have guests, but to prove that the argument that more guest brings in more people is completely bogus. If anything, the people buying Smash are probably similar to the people buying it before guest were even added. It might explain why the most popular characters had a strong Nintendo relation and why we don't see any characters that come even remotely close to Mega Man or Sonic.

** Just want to point out this calculation is technically off as 60% is the number of people total. I used the Wii U as 60% since its the dependent variable in this scenario. Obviously, the 3DS sold better so there are more people who only own that game. Went with this calculation as, for a simple forum post, it gets the job done. Just point it out incase a math geek looks at this.

Don't forget that 3ds games are sold for less money, smash used to be 40 but I've seen in walmart for 30 on 3ds. It might sell more copies but you have to factor it selling for less money.

 

[ROBnWatch]

So, in terms of Newcomers, I think (based on other things I've seen) the following are most likely. Keep in mind this is kind of a combination between what I want (even though I'm more looking forward to which veterans will return and the changes to them) and what I think will happen, as well as popular/likely guesses.

1. Spring Man/Ribbon Girl/literally any ARMS character - Nintendo's newest IP and almost guaranteed to have a representative in Smash. I personally don't want the character to be very basic, so I'd want Min-Min or Ninjara over the likes of Spring Man, but he is the mascot of ARMS, so he probably has a better shot.

2. King K. Rool/Dixie Kong - I think we're pretty much guarunteed one, if not both, of these two. If I was forced to choose, I'd rather have Dixie. Nothing against K. Rool or any of his supporters though, and I'd be fine either way. The best scenario is that we get both. That way, everyone's happy!

3. Waluigi - I think this goes without saying how much people want him in. And he's honestly deserving of a spot. So, at this point, I think it's his time to shine.

4. Bandana Dee - I don't really lean one way or the other on this guy. On one hand, we already have the main 3 for the Kirby series. On the other, Banadana Dee has started to become the 4th main character, as it were, of the Kirby series. So, ya, I'd say he's got a fair shot.

5. Impa - I think Zelda needs another rep. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Sheik got cut (this doesn't mean I want her cut though) and was replaced by Impa. Another character I could see as a Zelda rep. (though more unlikely) is Linkle, so long as she's not a clone of Link. But if we're getting another Zelda rep., Impa has, I think, the best shot.

6. Sylux - I'll...go over...Ridley...later... BUT, it seems like Sylux is going to be the main antagonist for Metroid Prime 4. And I'm with everyone, Metroid needs another rep. besides Samus/ZSS. And we need more villains. So, Sylux fits the bill I think. And I'll go over Ridley later.

7. Decidueye - From what I've seen, this is the most "popular" Pokemon newcomer, if we are to get another one (which I'm sure we will). That and I personally think he'd be pretty cool. Not much more to say about him, but he's probably the Pokemon with the highest chance right now.

8. Rex and Pyra - I'm not gonna pretend like I know much about Xenoblade, cause I don't. But they definitely have a good shot, considering what Sakurai has said about how he enjoyed Xenoblade Chronicles 2. So I wouldn't be surprised if we saw this happen.

9. Fire Emblem Switch Main Character - Whoever this turns out to be will likely get in, along with a cut (or even two) of the current FE roster. Marth will undoubtedly stay, but I wouldn't be surprised if the FE Switch rep. meant someone else (or two) on our current FE roster had to be cut. It's hard to say how many, but I don't think we'll have any more than 6 FE reps. In all likelihood, probably more along the lines of 4 or 5. We'll need to wait and see.

10. Takamaru - I think he'll get the Little Mac treatment and graduate from assist trophy to full-fledged fighter, as he has had support since before he was an assist trophy, and that support has only continued. So I don't think it's too much of a stretch that we could see him in the next game.

11. A Nindie rep. - Most likely Shovel Knight or Shantae. Each of them could be unique in their own ways, and they're the top two candidates, I would think, if we get a Nindie rep. But we'll need to wait and see.

12. Rayman - A similar situation to Bandana Dee where I could care less if he got in or not. But he has the support, there was that massive one day leak, and it's not an impossibility considering he has a trophy in Smash 4.

So we have a retro rep. (Takamaru), now for a joke character. Since I really can't think of any other one...

13. Laboman - This could be really fun and I like the potential of it. Will it happen? No clue. But I do think it's at least possible, and the potential for a fun moveset is there. I would be excited to see what they can do with him, if they make it happen.

Now for a character I really want to happen, but likely never will...

14. Ninten/Paula - As a fan of the EarthBound/Mother series, I want another rep. from that series. But I realize it's unlikely. IF we were to get one though, these two are probably the top candidates. Ninten would complete the trilogy of main protagonists, while Paula could be another female rep. and could be unique if her "Pray" ability from EarthBound were somehow incorporated into her moveset (as her down special probably). But again, I think another EarthBound/Mother rep. is unlikely. If there was one though, these two would be among my top choice(s).

And finally, the big dragon/pterodactyl/space pirate himself...

15. Ridley - Now I'm going to be very, very honest here. I used to be against this guy in Smash. He is, as you've heard many times before, quite large. Since then, I've started to remove myself from the issue of Ridley in Smash. People have made it clear though that he can be shrunk down and still work. Ultimately, it's all up to Sakurai. And I don't know what he will do. At this point, I could care less if he's in or out, but I know I'll get flamed if I put Sylux on here and not mention Ridley. And his fans make an outcry for him as big as himself. So, maybe, just maybe, he'll make his grand debut. But it's up to Sakurai, and we all know how he's dealt with Ridley in the past. So we'll just need to wait and see.

Oh, and I think Ice Climbers and Wolf will be returning veterans as well.

I will give out some honorable mentions. Those being Krystal, Banjo-Kazooie, Crash Bandicoot, Bomberman, and Issac. Of course, these are just my thoughts and I know you guys will disagree with some of them and say how (character) should be on the list, but this is just what I think could happen and in no way represents what is actually going to happen. Some of it might be right, some of it might be wrong. So, there's my thoughts. Enjoy!

 

[GoodGrief741]

6. Sylux - I'll...go over...Ridley...later... BUT, it seems like Sylux is going to be the main antagonist for Metroid Prime 4.

What are you basing that on?

 

[David James]

I'd rather have wolf than krystal anyday, the last thing we need is more furries.

 

[dezeray112]

I've always have a fascination with Nintendo's Retro based games, if you were to pick 5 characters from the retro games, who would you want?

 

[David James]

I've always have a fascination with Nintendo's Retro based games, if you were to pick 5 characters from the retro games, who would you want?

Exitebike, tamakuru, balloon fight man, sun from mario bros 3 and bubble bobble dinosaur

 

[Morbi]

I'd rather have wolf than krystal anyday, the last thing we need is more furries.

If you were worried about furries, it is not as though Wolf really addresses that problem. There are female and gay furries.

I've always have a fascination with Nintendo's Retro based games, if you were to pick 5 characters from the retro games, who would you want?

It is just a two horse (ha ha ha...) race between Takamaru and Balloon Fighter as far as I am concerned.

What are you basing that on?

The secret ending to Prime 3 and apparently Federation Force.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I've always have a fascination with Nintendo's Retro based games, if you were to pick 5 characters from the retro games, who would you want?

Takamaru, Prince Sable, Lip (not sure if she’s considered retro but she’s definitely old), Ayumi Tachibana and Mike Jones. Got a lot more on my wants though, there’s just something about an obscure as heck pick that just gets the blood pumping. Maybe it’s the ol’ rooting for the underdog trope?

Exitebike, tamakuru, balloon fight man, sun from mario bros 3 and bubble bobble dinosaur

Bubble Bobble ain’t Nintendo man.

The secret ending to Prime 3 and apparently Federation Force.

There was a secret ending to Prime 3? I’d better go look that up.

 

[David James]

If you were worried about furries, it is not as though Wolf really addresses that problem. There are female and gay furries.


True but besides Krystal star fox characters arn't sexulized. At least not by nintendo

 

[ROBnWatch]

What are you basing that on?

Oh, is that wrong? Well then, I guess that goes to show I shouldn't trust non-credible sources.

EDIT: I literally dunno where I got that from, I saw it a few days ago and don't have the link on me. R.I.P.. But I guess there is a secret ending to Prime 3, as Morbi said.

 

[N3ON]

SmashChu , you might disagree with my assertion that third-parties help push units, but your argument is that Nintendo engages in notedly arduous negotiations with third-parties, paying out presumably weighty sums to use said characters ostensibly "for the sake of it". Where in your business degree does that make sense?

It's kind of telling that your arguments regarding third-parties have barely shifted in the twelve years we've known them to be part of Smash. You feign objectivity, but it's clear you've dug in your heels a long time ago. You say the costs of the third-parties overshadow the benefits. You speak of third-party inclusion as if it's a failed experiment. As if it didn't increase 200% over the last game. You claim that in all likelihood, Nintendo is losing money on these endeavours. Yet even past expanding the third party presence in the vanilla roster, Nintendo doubling it through post-game, standalone content is a hell of a nonsensical gambit should they not return a profit, given they need to sell primarily on their individual merit. Luckily Smash DLC being Nintendo's most profitable additional content ever at the time would allay these concerns. But no, I'm sure the heavily promoted gaming icons and Smash ballot champion had little to do with those profits. You speak as if third-parties aren't becoming an exponentially increasing part of the roster. Which would make no sense if they were only a fiscal detriment, or even a net neutral.

I suppose you better rush your calculations over to Nintendo and all their financial analysts, consultants and advisors (who have actual objective data) before they waste any more money on third-parties.

And I mean other people have touched on this already, better than I will, but not accounting for fluctuating install bases? Gosh I wonder why the same game sells better on PS4 than XB1. I wonder why the Switch sells better in America than Canada. I mean that's really rudimentary. Why should we believe any commerce-related proclamations you might make?

 

[Murlough]

I'd rather have wolf than krystal anyday, the last thing we need is more furries.

Wut? They are both humanoid animals. How does adding 1 male humanoid animal as opposed to 1 female humanoid animal mean less furries will be in the game?

I don't want Krystal over Wolf either but that logic hurt me. .-.

 

[WingedSupernova]

At least Krystal wouldn't be similar to the two Star Fox characters already in and would provide some long needed variety to that series' move sets.

 

[Murlough]

At least Krystal wouldn't be similar to the two Star Fox characters already in and would provide some long needed variety to that series' move sets.

She just looks odd to me design wise. I'm not saying shes unwelcome but I do feel Wolf should come back and THEN maybe Krystal.

If Krystal gets in and Wolf gets ignored for another game I'mma be salty for a good week or so.