Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Shroob]

Forget the Grinch leaker, the ESRB leaker managed to create gameplay that was basically identical to the finished product. That's real talent.

Shame it was fake.

ikr

I really was hoping Bowser Jr was in. ****ing sucks fam. God damn all leaks being fake.

 

[TheCJBrine]

I can’t believe they expected us to believe that supposed ESRB gameplay lol, it was so weird and Bowser Jr. was obviously a modded Diddy Kong.

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

Forget the Grinch leaker, the ESRB leaker managed to create gameplay that was basically identical to the finished product. That's real talent.

Shame it was fake.

You joke but I straight up got hate mail on here for writing the news article about the ESRB leak. Not to mention the comments section which were pretty hostile, too.

Its fun to go back and read it every now and then but I was actually worried as a lot of hate and salt was being directed at me simply for writing about it for the site.

 

[Shroob]

You joke but I straight up got hate mail on here for writing the news article about the ESRB leak. Not to mention the comments section which were pretty hostile, too.

Its fun to go back and read it every now and then but I was actually worried as a lot of hate and salt was being directed at me simply for writing about it for the site.

I always look at the end of Smash 4 base speculation as a bit akin to Brawl's.


Lots of disappointment and salt abound because "What do you mean X isn't in?! Why'd Y get in?!"

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I always look at the end of Smash 4 base speculation as a bit akin to Brawl's.


Lots of disappointment and salt abound because "What do you mean X isn't in?! Why'd Y get in?!"

You mean what happened for 4DLC? And Ultimate's base? And so far, the fighter pass? And apparantly Melee?

 

[N3ON]

You joke but I straight up got hate mail on here for writing the news article about the ESRB leak. Not to mention the comments section which were pretty hostile, too.

Its fun to go back and read it every now and then but I was actually worried as a lot of hate and salt was being directed at me simply for writing about it for the site.

Unfortunately it's somehow serious business saying something people like isn't real and/or something they don't like is. Even though one side is technically right and one side technically wrong, there are no real winners when you can't handle your mad.

Good thing I stepped down from the staff about, maybe a week before the esrb leak broke.
Truly a move of accidental genius.

 

[Shroob]

You mean what happened for 4DLC? And Ultimate's base? And so far, the fighter pass? And apparantly Melee?

"Down here, salt is a way of life."

 

[Ben Holt]

You mean what happened for 4DLC? And Ultimate's base? And so far, the fighter pass? And apparantly Melee?

I still can't believe Smash 64 didn't have Bowser and Banjo-Kazooie. But NESS?! Literally who?

 

[Deleted member]

Hoes will always be mad over anything.

 

[N3ON]

"Down here, salt is a way of life."

Yeah well, after getting within sight of 100 characters, including literally every fighter there's ever been, having two or more years of DLC, adding Ridley and K. Rool and Banjo and, who knows, maybe other fan favourites, you better brace yourself for people still pulling that **** and having their little tantrums when Ultimate's DLC ends.

That last character is in for an unenviable ride.

 

[Shroob]

Yeah well, after getting within sight of 100 characters, including literally every fighter there's ever been, having two or more years of DLC, adding Ridley and K. Rool and Banjo and, who knows, maybe other fan favourites, you better brace yourself for people still pulling that **** and having their little tantrums when Ultimate's DLC ends.

That last character is in for an unenviable ride.

You act like this fanbase can ever be satisfied lol.

You give baby one cookie, baby will demand more cookie.

 

[N3ON]

You act like this fanbase can ever be satisfied lol.

You give baby one cookie, baby will demand more cookie.

I'm not an idiot; I just act like they should be satisfied.

But I would like a cookie if you're offering.

 

[Shroob]

I'm not an idiot; I just act like they should be satisfied.

But I would like a cookie if you're offering.

We got sugar, peanut butter or M&M, pick your poison.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

You act like this fanbase can ever be satisfied lol.

You give baby one cookie, baby will demand more cookie.

It's especially bad if the baby only wants the specific cookie as they cn easily enjoy the others but "NOT THE ONE I SPECIFICALLY WANTED I ONLY WANT THIS!"

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

You act like this fanbase can ever be satisfied lol.

You give baby one cookie, baby will demand more cookie.

i have a two year old. I can vouch for this.

Apple juice, piggyback rides, and Twinkle Twinkle Little Star are also applicable uses.

 

[PsychoJosh]

Sakurai wouldn’t do all this grand stuff if this wasn’t a finale of sorts, and he’s probably gonna stop making smash games and the chances of a new one aren’t likely for years, just stick to ultimate please

It might be his last Smash game and it might not. But Smash will continue regardless, if not under his direction then under someone else's.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Again, you didn't read what I said. I didn't say I'd change it, I said I'd add to it in specific areas.

I did read what you said, and the additions you propose are antithetical to the low barrier of entry that characterizes Smash. They're unneeded changes that make the product less of itself.

 

[PsychoJosh]

I did read what you said, and the additions you propose are antithetical to the low barrier of entry that characterizes Smash. They're unneeded changes that make the product less of itself.

It really doesn't though. Pressing an extra button or doing an input somehow RUINS the low barrier of entry? How idiotic must you think the Smash playerbase has to be for this to completely trash its accessibility? What I'm proposing isn't even on the same level as Terry's SNK-style inputs. I'm giving the playerbase more credit than that, even kids generally aren't that dumb.

 

[Shroob]

It really doesn't though. Pressing an extra button or doing an input somehow RUINS the low barrier of entry? How idiotic must you think the Smash playerbase has to be for this to completely trash its accessibility? What I'm proposing isn't even on the same level as Terry's SNK-style inputs. I'm giving the playerbase more credit than that, even kids generally aren't that dumb.

I mean, tbh, if having to do **** like QCF for basic moves on Mario, Smash would be a lot less fun to me personally.

I enjoy Smash since it's the only game where I don't have to memorize all those combos and joystick movements that every other fighter has.


It really depends. If you start adding Shoto-mechanics ala-Ryu or Ken to other fighters, then yeah, Smash really does lose the accessibility I'd argue.

 

[Momotsuki]

I like Ryu/Ken/Terry (especially Terry's) command inputs but I do agree that not every fighter should have them.

 

[Deleted member]

I couldn't reply to anything because I was busy watching the Mobile Legends World Championship (SUNSPARKS FTW!), but after reading everything that has transpired, I'd gladly say that the discussion has gone for quite the level of toxicity. Seriously, we have no idea who FP5 is (I just hope it's a female), and everyone is pretty much throwing stuff left and right. You guys are honestly setting too many standards for characters who by no means have every right to be in. Why the stuff with the character choices? Why complain about what we already have? The Smash community needs to learn the value of contentment. I myself am guilty that I am not content with the Fighters Pass, but for the rest of the people who make it a whole hot mess about it, rather than just being passive and friendly, try to be open for once.

Back then, before I joined Smashboards, I was hoping that we wouldn't get any more leaks and stuff. But now, I'm just desperate to get a single tidbit of information, ANYTHING, just to tie up all arguments. I'm just quite bored, and all of us here are bored as well. For once, can we just talk normally without throwing stuff at each other? It's getting out of hand, honestly.

 

[Ben Holt]

I couldn't reply to anything because I was busy watching the Mobile Legends World Championship (SUNSPARKS FTW!), but after reading everything that has transpired, I'd gladly say that the discussion has gone for quite the level of toxicity. Seriously, we have no idea who FP5 is (I just hope it's a female), and everyone is pretty much throwing stuff left and right. You guys are honestly setting too many standards for characters who by no means have every right to be in. Why the stuff with the character choices? Why complain about what we already have? The Smash community needs to learn the value of contentment. I myself am guilty that I am not content with the Fighters Pass, but for the rest of the people who make it a whole hot mess about it, rather than just being passive and friendly, try to be open for once.

Back then, before I joined Smashboards, I was hoping that we wouldn't get any more leaks and stuff. But now, I'm just desperate to get a single tidbit of information, ANYTHING, just to tie up all arguments. I'm just quite bored, and all of us here are bored as well. For once, can we just talk normally without throwing stuff at each other? It's getting out of hand, honestly.

To be honest, I have no stake in who Fighter 5 is. I pre-ordered the Fighter's Pass the day it was available, but my two most wanted are deconfirmed for Fighter 5 (though super likely post-pass), being Crash Bandicoot and Doom Slayer.

So I will happily accept any character that is a video game character.
Yes, even lame ass Reimu.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

To be honest, I have no stake in who Fighter 5 is. I pre-ordered the Fighter's Pass the day it was available, but my two most wanted are deconfirmed for Fighter 5 (though super likely post-pass), being Crash Bandicoot and Doom Slayer.

My boy, my two most wanted have been on a goddamn roller coaster since speculation ****ing started. Doom Slayer and Hayabusa have been there since the beginning and I'm going to lose my marbles if neither of them are in.

So I will happily accept any character that is a video game character.
Yes, even lame ass Reimu.

First of all, how dare you. Second of all, how dare you.

 

[Momotsuki]

After thinking on it, I feel like Reimu is a bit of a crapshoot in regards to F5, but pretty likely (but definitely not certain) for post-pass.

 

[Ben Holt]

My boy, my two most wanted have been on a goddamn roller coaster since speculation ****ing started. Doom Slayer and Hayabusa have been there since the beginning and I'm going to lose my marbles if neither of them are in.

First of all, how dare you. Second of all, how dare you.

Name one person in your entire neighborhood that recognizes Reimu.
And I just said that I WOULD accept her.
1. It'd make Lesley happy and save me from her wrath.
2. A bullet hell moveset sounds cool.

 

[Shroob]

Name one person in your entire neighborhood that recognizes Reimu.
And I just said that I WOULD accept her.
1. It'd make Lesley happy and save me from her wrath.
2. A bullet hell moveset sounds cool.

I mean, to be fair I don't think many people in my neighborhood would recognize over half the characters that get thrown around here, that's not a very good metric for recognizability lol.

 

[ramon_zer0]

How I Met Your Mother was right. Nothing good happens after 2 am because here I am trying to test out this crackpot theory that I'm sure got mentioned here once before: I think whoever DLC 5 is, they're probably going to drop in January.

I'm basing this off amiibo release dates, because for the most part, every wave of amiibo for this game has been released roughly a week or two before/after a new fighter drops. As a quick look at the history of this to prove my point:

• December 7, 2018: The first wave (Wolf/Ridley/Inkling) is released the same day Ultimate launches. (This is the only outlier in that no new DLC character has been released near this time frame.)
• February 19, 2019: Wave 2 (Ice Climbers/K. Rool/Piranha Plant) is released roughly two weeks after Piranha Plant (January 29 - 18 day difference).
• April 12, 2019: Wave 3 (Ken/Daisy/Young Link) is released a week before Joker (April 17 - 5 day difference).
• July 19/26, 2019: Wave 4 (Pokemon Trainer/Pichu/Isabelle) is released in Japan/internationally several days before Hero (July 30 - 9 day difference in Japan, 4 day difference internationally).
• September 20, 2019: Wave 5 (Snake/Squirtle/Ivysaur) is released two weeks after Banjo (September 4 - 16 day difference).
• November 8/15, 2019: Wave 6 (Simon/Chrom/Incineroar) is released in Japan/internationally several days after Terry (November 6 - 2 day difference in Japan, 9 day difference internationally).
• January 17, 2020: The final wave representing the base roster (Richter/Dark Samus) is set to be released internationally on this date.

Using this model, we'd be likely to predict when DLC 5 is likely to drop. Assuming the character drops before the amiibo wave (based on the examples set by Plant, Banjo and Terry), we could likely see them as early as 3 weeks before that date, which would be December 27 (Christmas week). Conversely, if we assume they drop after the amiibo (as set by Joker and Hero), we'd only need to wait a week or two after that for January 31 (the final week of January) for them to drop at the latest.

Granted, this is all conjecture at this point, but at the same time, the pattern of having a character's release being close to an amiibo wave has remained pretty consistent for 5 characters straight now, so I personally think that there is some merit to this. Obviously, this sort of hinges that we maybe get info on who DLC 5 is, and while the Game Awards seems like a good enough bet -- would help celebrate the 1 year anniversary of the game, would replicate the same stunt Joker pulled off last year -- this is still a shot in the dark all things considered. (Quick 2 cents: If it is a Game Awards reveal, I can't see anyone too obscure being DLC 5 because that'd be a possible Hero/Terry scenario, and I wager it'd help if the Pass ended strong.)

Just in case you might doubt how quick of a turnaround this is for a character to be released roughly a month or so after being revealed, it took Hero a total of 50 days (June 11 - July 30) for him to be released after his announcement. Directly applying that timeframe to the Game Awards' date under the assumption that DLC 5 is announced on that day (December 12) would put us on January 31st exactly, so all things considered, it wouldn't necessarily be too far fetched. Also, a release in January or even December wouldn't violate the conditions set out initially by the Fighters Pass ("all fighters will be out by February 2020").

There's probably a lot of holes in this theory of mine, but what do y'all think?

 

[Ben Holt]

I mean, to be fair I don't think many people in my neighborhood would recognize over half the characters that get thrown around here, that's not a very good metric for recognizability lol.

But Third Parties?
Everyone knows Sonic, Snake, Mega Man, Pac-Man, Cloud, Ryu, Simon, and Hero.
And Joker and Bayonetta are major modern picks.
Terry is extremely well known in Latin America. My neighbors are Mexican, and they told me about how console gaming wasn't common in Mexico due to poverty, but arcade machines were in every little grocery store.

 

[Deleted member]

To be honest, I have no stake in who Fighter 5 is. I pre-ordered the Fighter's Pass the day it was available, but my two most wanted are deconfirmed for Fighter 5 (though super likely post-pass), being Crash Bandicoot and Doom Slayer.

So I will happily accept any character that is a video game character.
Yes, even lame ass Reimu.

I haven't bought the Fighters Pass yet, but probably won't buy the entire thing and just settle for both Joker and Terry, the only two DLC from this pass that I want to main. Joker since he brought me to Persona, Terry because I'm an SNK fangirl. Secondly, don;t just waltz in and call Reimu a "lame ass". You just triggered the entire Touhou community. And surely not they're gonna be out for your blood soon enough.

My boy, my two most wanted have been on a goddamn roller coaster since speculation ****ing started. Doom Slayer and Hayabusa have been there since the beginning and I'm going to lose my marbles if neither of them are in.

They're pretty much guaranteed for postpass, they just switched the orders as Ben Holt theorized. I'm pretty sure they will make it, just...not now.

Name one person in your entire neighborhood that recognizes Reimu.
And I just said that I WOULD accept her.
1. It'd make Lesley happy and save me from her wrath.
2. A bullet hell moveset sounds cool.

The one fanfiction writer who writes Touhou x Smash fanfics, and as well as me, since if she gets in, I'm willing to invest in her franchise. Persona is the best example of this. I'll gladly accept her as my female rep too. Largely because I'm a bit of a weeb.

It's not just you, it's everyone. No seriously. Everyone.

Watch her be campy and cover the entire stage. Then wait for the Leffen tweet and the South Australian community being whiny about it.

I mean, to be fair I don't think many people in my neighborhood would recognize over half the characters that get thrown around here, that's not a very good metric for recognizability lol.

To be fair, recognizability is not correlated to the decision to put characters. And this stuff has been discussed to death. We don;t want to see toxic discussions pop up anytime soon.

 

[Shroob]

But Third Parties?
Everyone knows Sonic, Snake, Mega Man, Pac-Man, Cloud, Ryu, Simon, and Hero.
And Joker and Bayonetta are major modern picks.
Terry is extremely well known in Latin America. My neighbors are Mexican, and they told me about how console gaming wasn't common in Mexico due to poverty, but arcade machines were in every little grocery store.

You said "Neighborhood", implying people that live nearby me.

My neighbors are a crazy woman who thinks she's a witch, and an aging Australian couple, so no, I highly doubt they know any of these characters we talk about lol.

 

[Idon]

Listen, if little Timmy in your neighborhood has ever heard of:

1. Joker
2. Dragon Quest Hero man
3. Banjo and Kazooie
4. Terry ****ing Bogard
5. And any of the other names we throw around here on a daily basis,

Then I'd say your neighborhood isn't like most other ones.

And besides, if we're going by that metric, than Dante's already won because everyone's heard of this before:

 

[GKMLTTSB]

Adding characters/franchises that have either fallen by the wayside or haven't sufficiently spread into the general public's eye has become one of my favourite facets of Smash.

So mainstream recognizability sits pretty low to me. Ideally I think characters work best if the mainstream response is more akin to, "Oh, I've seen them somewhere before." or "It's been a long time since I've heard that name." rather then generating further discussions about games that are already heavily-discussed.

Some current, mainstream characters obviously have legacy and deserve a nod based on that, but it's almost never going to result in as interesting an outcome as bypassing them for a more novel pick.

 

[Idon]

Everyone knows Sonic, Snake, Mega Man, Pac-Man, Cloud, Ryu, Simon, and Hero.

.... is this some kind of twisted joke? Unless you're a dragon quest fan or in touch with traditional JRPGs, there's no way in blue hell you've ever heard of "Hero" as a specific set of videogame characters.

 

[osby]

The first rule of "Average Joe" argument is: You do not talk about the "Average Joe" argument.

 

[Shroob]

How I Met Your Mother was right. Nothing good happens after 2 am because here I am trying to test out this crackpot theory that I'm sure got mentioned here once before: I think whoever DLC 5 is, they're probably going to drop in January.

I'm basing this off amiibo release dates, because for the most part, every wave of amiibo for this game has been released roughly a week or two before/after a new fighter drops. As a quick look at the history of this to prove my point:

• December 7, 2018: The first wave (Wolf/Ridley/Inkling) is released the same day Ultimate launches. (This is the only outlier in that no new DLC character has been released near this time frame.)
• February 19, 2019: Wave 2 (Ice Climbers/K. Rool/Piranha Plant) is released roughly two weeks after Piranha Plant (January 29 - 18 day difference).
• April 12, 2019: Wave 3 (Ken/Daisy/Young Link) is released a week before Joker (April 17 - 5 day difference).
• July 19/26, 2019: Wave 4 (Pokemon Trainer/Pichu/Isabelle) is released in Japan/internationally several days before Hero (July 30 - 9 day difference in Japan, 4 day difference internationally).
• September 20, 2019: Wave 5 (Snake/Squirtle/Ivysaur) is released two weeks after Banjo (September 4 - 16 day difference).
• November 8/15, 2019: Wave 6 (Simon/Chrom/Incineroar) is released in Japan/internationally several days after Terry (November 6 - 2 day difference in Japan, 9 day difference internationally).
• January 17, 2020: The final wave representing the base roster (Richter/Dark Samus) is set to be released internationally on this date.

Using this model, we'd be likely to predict when DLC 5 is likely to drop. Assuming the character drops before the amiibo wave (based on the examples set by Plant, Banjo and Terry), we could likely see them as early as 3 weeks before that date, which would be December 27 (Christmas week). Conversely, if we assume they drop after the amiibo (as set by Joker and Hero), we'd only need to wait a week or two after that for January 31 (the final week of January) for them to drop at the latest.

Granted, this is all conjecture at this point, but at the same time, the pattern of having a character's release being close to an amiibo wave has remained pretty consistent for 5 characters straight now, so I personally think that there is some merit to this. Obviously, this sort of hinges that we maybe get info on who DLC 5 is, and while the Game Awards seems like a good enough bet -- would help celebrate the 1 year anniversary of the game, would replicate the same stunt Joker pulled off last year -- this is still a shot in the dark all things considered. (Quick 2 cents: If it is a Game Awards reveal, I can't see anyone too obscure being DLC 5 because that'd be a possible Hero/Terry scenario, and I wager it'd help if the Pass ended strong.)

Just in case you might doubt how quick of a turnaround this is for a character to be released roughly a month or so after being revealed, it took Hero a total of 50 days (June 11 - July 30) for him to be released after his announcement. Directly applying that timeframe to the Game Awards' date under the assumption that DLC 5 is announced on that day (December 12) would put us on January 31st exactly, so all things considered, it wouldn't necessarily be too far fetched. Also, a release in January or even December wouldn't violate the conditions set out initially by the Fighters Pass ("all fighters will be out by February 2020").

There's probably a lot of holes in this theory of mine, but what do y'all think?

This is actually a pretty common theory, which is called either Amiibo Theory/Amiibo Release Theory.

It's just not talked about a lot since it doesn't tell us who the character is.


January seems incredibly likely for fighter 5, with a trailer at TGAs next month and a Direct in January.

 

[D019]

most people in my neighborhood only remember sonic, cloud, snake and ryu. and even then sonic is most known here as a meme.
my cousin even forget that i have castlevania on nes that we used to play, simon is out.
pacman only remembered by a few of my friends as "that circle eating thingy who chased by ghost" most only know from mobile port.
nobody even know about dragon quest here.
doom guy and master chief? most people here will tell me to delete doom immediately and only 5 people in my city know about halo.
there is not even one snk arcade on this city, most people know snk from metal slug anthology on playstation.
even with that really backward gaming community at least my highschool, college and coworker know about touhou, and i've seen a lot of people play bap apple! at arcades.

 

[Shroob]

most people in my neighborhood only remember sonic, cloud, snake and ryu. and even then sonic is most known here as a meme.
my cousin even forget that i have castlevania on nes that we used to play, simon is out.
pacman only remembered by a few of my friends as "that circle eating thingy who chased by ghost" most only know from mobile port.
nobody even know about dragon quest here.
doom guy and master chief? most people here will tell me to delete doom immediately and only 5 people in my city know about halo.
there is not even one snk arcade on this city, most people know snk from metal slug anthology on playstation.
even with that really backward gaming community at least my highschool, college and coworker know about touhou, and i've seen a lot of people play bap apple! at arcades.

Why the

DOOM and gloom

If I may ask?

 

[D019]

Why the

DOOM and gloom

If I may ask?

demonic theme and over the top violence
original doom / quake i can still pass though

 

[Momotsuki]

Average Joe's opinion means nothing because he doesn't have one. He doesn't care at all about who does or does not get into Smash. He just likes playing the fun Nintendo game thingy with his kids every now and then.

 

[Wunderwaft]

I'm pretty damn sure that short of Mario and Pikachu every other character on the roster would be unknown to Mr. Average Joe walking down the street.