Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Deleted member]

Doom Marine and Geno are dead because they're in a fake leak? Aw, crap, I guess Ken and Banjo-Kazooie aren't in, guys. Time to pack it up.

Man. I guess we're getting Steve after all.

 

[Deleted member]

Doom Marine and Geno are dead because they're in a fake leak? Aw, crap, I guess Ken and Banjo-Kazooie aren't in, guys. Time to pack it up.

Remember when we thought Palutena had a chance back in Smash 4?
Man what fools we were

 

[Plank08]

I got to be honest guys, why do you guys think Reimu is so likely? If Shovel Knight and Shantae, characters with a WAY bigger worldwide influence, aren’t playable yet, how the HELL could Reimu, a character only popular in Japan, get in smash before them?

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

When your most-wanted characters keep getting debunked by fake leaks but end up in Smash anyway.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

So here’s something to try...

Let’s consider some of the leading franchises that’s dominating speculation:

From that, make a Fighter Pass including a character, stage, 2-4 Mii Outfits, and at least 5 Spirits. If you want to conclude music, you can but please keep it to 5 and include them as links, not in embeds as it can slow down the page if there are too many.

Way ahead of ya!

He may not dominate the speculation scene but he surely dominates my speculation! :^)

 

[GKMLTTSB]

I got to be honest guys, why do you guys think Reimu is so likely? If Shovel Knight and Shantae, characters with a WAY bigger worldwide influence, aren’t playable yet, how the HELL could Reimu, a character only popular in Japan, get in smash before them?

1) You assume 'worldwide influence' is a major factor (and even then, I'd say Shantae isn't in a much stronger place).
2) Touhou has a longer history and greater legacy than either of them (17 mainline games + official spinoffs + the material put out by the fan community)
3) Touhou is really, really big and has a lot of incredibly dedicated fans. Because of the nature of the world, its characters, and the loose IP restrictions, you have entire communities that love it as a property without even playing the mainline games.
3b) There's a notable number of people in the fanbase that are the type to throw down money whenever Touhou's involved. So I'd say there's a much better chance to see people willing to buy Smash specifically because of Reimu/Touhou content than there would be for most other characters.

I'm not saying I think Reimu is likely, as I still think that stuff from major studios has a better chance, but Touhou has a lot of merit to it as an indie pick and its certainly not some small, irrelevant thing, especially if its being held up against properties like Shantae and Shovel Knight.

 

[Night Gale]

appearing on nintendo consoles has seemed irrelevant to me ever since joker came out with absolutely zero reference to persona Q/Q2

Every Morgana appearance is from his Persona Q iteration.

 

[OrpheusTelos]

The more characters keep getting shot down for DLC 5, the more convinced I become that Leon or Jill are gonna be it. Most of the big boys are out of the competition for now, so Resident Evil just makes the most sense for the last slot. If FP5 does end up being a Game Awards reveal, RE would also fit considering that REmake 2 is most likely going to be one of the nominations. Unless something explicitly disconfirms an RE character, I'm gonna be sticking with my gut on this one.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

So if we're believing Sabi that means that Ryu, Crash, Geno, and Doom's Protagonist won't be DLC (at least, not yet). I believe at one point Dante was disconfirmed, and I personally believe that all of the clover studios characters are disconfirmed, as well as Shantae. So that still leaves.

• Namco characters Lloyd & Heihachi. They both have a similar feel to other DLC characters so I'm not betting on them.
• Capcom characters Jill/Chris/Leon, Monster Hunter, & Phoenix Wright. Wouldn't bet on Monster Hunter, but the Phoenix Wright and the Resident Evil characters seem plausible.
• Dragonborn. I feel like they wouldn't pick this character because one moveset and archetype wouldn't do it justice, and they don't have endless resources.
• Sora. Not sure he's a good choice to put in the same pass as Hero just due to the similar feel, but he definitely has the star power.
• Reimu. A dark horse pick who's playstyle would piss everyone off online. Also not sure where they'd get their stage from since the levels in Touhou just have looping backgrounds of the ground.
• Probably a bunch of characters I didn't mention because I can't think of them.

 

[BernkastelWitch]

Unless an AT or Spirit gets upgraded to a proper playable character, there ain't that much indie competition. The only choices I can think of for an indie rep other than Reimu are Quote and maybe The Knight from Hollow Knight.

It also helps Touhou is huge in Japan and a lot of Touhou related stuff has seeped into Western media and even games like League of Legends and surprisingly, World of Warcraft have Touhou references. It also helps ZUN wants Touhou to be more noticed and this can be one way.

And really, I think people should heed Sakurais words on Terrys stream that he decides if a character is fun over their recognizability.

 

[PhantomShab]

Oh boy another round of "I know who the next character really is but I'm not telling".

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Sabi, if you’re there, can you at least answer this: do you know the gender of character 5 and/or what company they’re from?

 

[Plank08]

Wait.
Sakurai said popularity doesn’t matter as long as they have an intresting moveset.
Sackboy would probably have one of the most unique moveset out of any Sony Rep.
It’s time boys.

 

[StrawHatX]

Sabi, if you’re there, can you at least answer this: do you know the gender of character 5 and/or what company they’re from?

She said she knows who the character is, but she has to wait for approval to announce it. Or something like that.

So I would say the answer is yes to both of your questions.

 

[Lamperouge]

She said she knows who the character is, but she has to wait for approval to announce it. Or something like that.

So I would say the answer is yes to both of your questions.

Typical Sabi fashion.

 

[GKMLTTSB]

• Reimu. A dark horse pick who's playstyle would piss everyone off online. Also not sure where they'd get their stage from since the levels in Touhou just have looping backgrounds of the ground.

There are plenty of options:

Spoiler: The Hakurei Shrine (most likely)

Spoiler: The Bamboo Forest of the Lost

Spoiler: Eientei

Spoiler: Scarlet Devil Mansion

Spoiler: Hakugyokurou

Spoiler: Yokai Mountain

Spoiler: The Moriya Shrine

Spoiler: The Palace of the Earth Spirits

Spoiler: Myouren Temple

Spoiler: The Hall of Dreams' Great Mausoleum

Spoiler: Shining Needle Castle

Spoiler: Kourindou

Spoiler: Bhava Agra

etc.

Hell, the stage could be a Gensoukyou tour where Yukari portals the entire stage and everyone on it to various locations rather than it being a traditional travelling stage.

 

[BernkastelWitch]

I imagine if Reimu gets in, her stage will likely be the Hakurei Shrine but have loads of character cameos. Though I also wouldn't be surprised if it's a bit of a "Tour" too since many people would love to see Gensokyo in 3D and this will be the closest to that officially.

 

[TindalosKeeper]

Huh... So Sabi is making his bet right now by saying that... It's actually a 50/50 decision... So let's consider some stuff...

1) His insiders: Soooo... Assuming they know who the fifth character is... Aren't they under NDA? Why would they casually break NDA to give some low-priority journalist what he wants to know? This is why I don't believe a single textual leaker that claims they got insiders...
2) Insiders, the Revenge: So, let's assume there are insiders... Why oh why they are willing to give info to some guy instead of doing it themselves and earn the fame? Do they owe Sabi a big favor and are doing these because of that? Sabi is paying for the info? (Very unlikely)
3) Sabi is wrong: What's going to happen when whatever info Sabi provides is not right? Has he apologized? Has he made a stupid excuse? Does he have the balls to admit he is wrong in, at least, one ocassion?

Sorry, but his words are meaningless to me, and this is the first time I see Sabi sweating balls wanting info on this leak, so right now, what I believe is, he made his decision... There's no insiders, just his common sense as the judge of what happens to a leak.

 

[SNEKeater]

Yeah I just mean SPECIFICALLY with Leon only due to the grappling hook, pistol, and the emphasis on knife attacks. I’m not trying to talk down on Leon’s chances, I just realistically can’t think of anything really going against him right now.

Jill would probably use knifes as well, as she does in the games she appears.
A grappling hook, yeah, it's probably what Sakurai would give to a Resi character as an upB, but I'm sure he would find another idea even if it's for the sake of not having 2 similar recoveries in the fighter pass.

As he said in Terry's presentation an interesting moveset is important, so if he includes a RE character I'm sure it would be fun and cool to play.

 

[CureParfait]

It won't be Reimu if it's at the Game Awards. Every American in the audience will boo it to hell. Bad publicity.

I don't get how that is bad publicity. Since I am pretty sure American or not Reimu might be well received there due to Smash hype. Plus I am pretty sure that there are some Americans at Game Awards who knows and probably wanted Reimu.

 

[Night Gale]

Try to visualize an SNK quality commemoration highlighting numerous Marvelous games such as Harvest Moon, Daemon X Machina, Lord of Magna, and No More Heroes. Then the person that represents that company as a whole is none other than a Senran Kagura character.

That would be a triumphant clusterf**k if there ever was one, but it would bring a boatload of new and distinctive worlds.

 

[BernkastelWitch]

I don't get how that is bad publicity. Since I am pretty sure American or not Reimu might be well received there due to Smash hype. Plus I am pretty sure that there are some Americans at Game Awards who knows and probably wanted Reimu.

And there's a lot of dedicated gamers who would just be happy about a new character in general. I know some people didn't care about Persona but got excited for Joker getting in, for instance.

And really, even if it's unlikely for her to be shown at the Game Awards, it is still good publicity and helps put Touhou on the radar for a more casual audience. You'd be surprised at how a simple inclusion in Smash does wonders for a series.

 

[Rikarte]

One thing about Reimu I haven't seen mentioned yet: she is a Shoot 'Em Up character - the genre that got Sakurai into game development.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Sabi, if you’re there, can you at least answer this: do you know the gender of character 5 and/or what company they’re from?

Just for clarification. You have to realize that Sabi's source is very high up. Leaking anything to Sabi earlier than what Sabi's source's source says could result in someone losing their job which I'm sure all parties are trying to avoid. Sabi's source knows the character but they can't risk telling Sabi and trusting her to stay silent until more people know, or till it's safe to say so, for the sake of keeping theirs and others identities safe. Sabi won't know anything until, just speculation here, early December.

She's stated that VR Plant may end up getting the info a bit earlier than her but that might just be cause VR Plant is a little reckless. Who knows?

Sabi knows absolutely nothing about WHO the 5th character is, just that it's not Geno, Doom Slayer, Hayabusa, or Crash. Gender, genre, character, game, everything has to remain under raps for a bit longer.

 

[Deleted member]

I don't get how that is bad publicity. Since I am pretty sure American or not Reimu might be well received there due to Smash hype. Plus I am pretty sure that there are some Americans at Game Awards who knows and probably wanted Reimu.

You generally want someone broadly recognizable in the west for max appeal at the VGA. To where even if someone never played the series, they would know what it is. Persona 5 for example won the JRPG award for 2017 and was successful worldwide. That's the kind of character that would amaze everybody watching it.

Not to say Reimu wouldn't generate a reaction, but let's be real. She is obscure in the west and there are better characters to advertise. It would be like if they showed off Hero instead of Joker last year. Imagine the western audience--which are the ones that predominantly watch VGA--who already don't know Dragon Quest to just go, "Eh. Okay" and that's mainly why Reimu at VGA is sketchy. It'd be badass for the fans who are watching, but not to everybody outside the loop.

 

[Ayumi Tachibana]

I got to be honest guys, why do you guys think Reimu is so likely? If Shovel Knight and Shantae, characters with a WAY bigger worldwide influence, aren’t playable yet, how the HELL could Reimu, a character only popular in Japan, get in smash before them?

Touhou can appeal to Chinese market and also popular among kids in Japan especially girls.
Both are what Nintendo wants.

Spoiler

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I believe at one point Dante was disconfirmed

Same as Kirkhope said for

 

[Ricksaw]

So if we're believing Sabi that means that Ryu, Crash, Geno, and Doom's Protagonist won't be DLC (at least, not yet). I believe at one point Dante was disconfirmed, and I personally believe that all of the clover studios characters are disconfirmed, as well as Shantae. So that still leaves.

• Namco characters Lloyd & Heihachi. They both have a similar feel to other DLC characters so I'm not betting on them.
• Capcom characters Jill/Chris/Leon, Monster Hunter, & Phoenix Wright. Wouldn't bet on Monster Hunter, but the Phoenix Wright and the Resident Evil characters seem plausible.
• Dragonborn. I feel like they wouldn't pick this character because one moveset and archetype wouldn't do it justice, and they don't have endless resources.
• Sora. Not sure he's a good choice to put in the same pass as Hero just due to the similar feel, but he definitely has the star power.
• Reimu. A dark horse pick who's playstyle would piss everyone off online. Also not sure where they'd get their stage from since the levels in Touhou just have looping backgrounds of the ground.
• Probably a bunch of characters I didn't mention because I can't think of them.

What about viewtiful Joe for Capcom and 2B from platinum games/square enix?

 

[Aerospherology]

Same as Kirkhope said for

All he said was, "Hold your breath"

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

What about viewtiful Joe for Capcom and 2B from platinum games/square enix?

I think the Platinum Games poll they had a while back disconfirms Dante, Amatarasu, Viewtiful Joe, and the like. I also don't know enough about 2B to make an accurate judgement on her (other than I don't think she was on that poll so I think she's fair game).

 

[Deleted member]

Just for clarification. You have to realize that Sabi's source is very high up. Leaking anything to Sabi earlier than what Sabi's source's source says could result in someone losing their job which I'm sure all parties are trying to avoid. Sabi's source knows the character but they can't risk telling Sabi and trusting her to stay silent until more people know, or till it's safe to say so, for the sake of keeping theirs and others identities safe. Sabi won't know anything until, just speculation here, early December.

She's stated that VR Plant may end up getting the info a bit earlier than her but that might just be cause VR Plant is a little reckless. Who knows?

Sabi knows absolutely nothing about WHO the 5th character is, just that it's not Geno, Doom Slayer, Hayabusa, or Crash. Gender, genre, character, game, everything has to remain under raps for a bit longer.

Yeah. As much as I dunk on Sabi for being verbose and a time waste, she can't be any clearer than she is now. Her source cannot tell her ANYTHING about FP 5 without getting caught. This includes company, gender, hair color, favorite hobby, anything.

Basically, don't rely on her for Smash. I know, groundbreaking conclusion, right?

 

[SNEKeater]

If we get a reveal at the Game Awards it wouldn't be a character oriented to the japanese audience like Reimu.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

People are still looking over a Dark Souls character even after the traction it got from that leak. Dark Souls is Namco's biggest franchise for last generation and some of this one. Seeing a Dark Souls character, my preference is the Soul of Cinder, at the GA's would not surprise me at all.

Still, looking at the other characters represented, all of them have been technically from unrepresented companies so I still have an inkling Ezio may have snuck his way into Smash for Ubisoft.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Same as Kirkhope said for

Honestly, that kind of thing is the exception rather than the rule.

Usually when someone says a character isn't in Smash, they aren't lying.

 

[BZL8]

Perhaps we should also remember to take into consideration that there might not be a Smash reveal at the Game Awards and Nintendo decides to showcase something else (MP4, BOTW2, Bayonetta 3, etc.).

 

[Pinguino21v]

Sure. Actually that makes me wonder who everyone thinks might be an underrated pick for Smash that nobody is really talking about.

At the very least, I think it rules out "modern" characters from series that started in 2000 or later

Everyone talking about Overwatch, meanwhile Warcraft exists (since 1994). What about Thrall?

This might not be a pattern at all but all the third parties are from companies who have had healthy business relations with Nintendo these past couple years. So if we look at that we can probably narrow down the likely fifthed character

We are putting him aside to the speculation since he is a spirit, but Rayman is from a company with healthy relation (and born in 1995). I'm not enough aware of the relationship between Nintendo and other companies, especially Japanese one, but on the west side, I believe there's only Bethesda and Ubisoft that have that.

If shown in a western event like TGA, both would be huge and well received.

 

[Night Gale]

I don't even know who that is but this drawing spoke to me on a spiritual level.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Perhaps we should also remember to take into consideration that there might not be a Smash reveal at the Game Awards and Nintendo decides to showcase something else (MP4, BOTW2, Bayonetta 3, etc.).

Nintendo always has a big presence at The Game Awards. They help fund it, after all. Just because we have a Smash announcement doesn't mean we can't have more.

 

[Deleted member]

Perhaps we should also remember to take into consideration that there might not be a Smash reveal at the Game Awards and Nintendo decides to showcase something else (MP4, BOTW2, Bayonetta 3, etc.).

I'd say VGA is the best time to advertise Smash before the holidays since it's already out (unlike Bayo 3 or BOTW2) and apparently the entire Earth hasn't purchased Smash or its DLC yet

Plus I don't really know when else they can reveal FP 5. The original time for the FP to end is Feb. 2020. Now consider that we have never received a DLC Fighter reveal and Sakurai stream on the same date, because they're always at least two months apart. December is the perfect time to reveal them if they stick to that pattern.

And I know patterns and Smash don't go well together, but the DLC has been consistent with revealing a fighter and then waiting months before explaining it. It's practically their marketing structure when 4 of the 5 fighters followed the trend. FP5 is definitely gonna be revealed at VGA.

 

[BZL8]

Anyone who thinks Nintendo wouldn't reveal a character that wouldn't necessarily be the best to reveal at the Game Awards needs to remember that they were ballsy enough to reveal a playable Cranky Kong in DKCTF as their sole headliner for the 2013 VGX (the precursor to the Game Awards).