Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Deleted member]

Anyone who thinks Nintendo wouldn't reveal a character that wouldn't necessarily be the best to reveal at the Game Awards needs to remember that they were ballsy enough to reveal a playable Cranky Kong in DKCTF as their sole headliner for the 2013 VGX (the precursor to the Game Awards).

Hey man. Cranky Kong's hype as ****.

Okay no. That's pretty bad, but do we have more recent examples?

 

[Curious Villager]

Hey man. Cranky Kong's hype as ****.

Okay no. That's pretty bad, but do we have more recent examples?

Hero at E3? Though we got Banjo after that.

So that means we're getting two reveals at the Game Awards!

 

[NobleClamtasm]

I'd say VGA is the best time to advertise Smash before the holidays since it's already out (unlike Bayo 3 or BOTW2) and apparently the entire Earth hasn't purchased Smash yet

Plus I don't really know when else they can reveal FP 5. The original time for the FP to end is Feb. 2020. Now consider that we have never received a DLC Fighter reveal and Sakurai stream on the same date, because they're always at least two months apart. December is the perfect time to reveal them if they stick to that pattern.

And I know patterns and Smash don't go well together, but the DLC has been consistent with revealing a fighter and then waiting months before explaining it. It's practically their marketing structure when 4 of the 5 fighters followed the trend. FP5 is definitely gonna be revealed at VGA.

The thing is, Smash has already made its money. Having Joker revealed last year made sense since Ultimate just released at that point in time, and Nintendo needed to drum up hype for Smash DLC in general. A year later, I think it's come to a point where most normies have moved on from Smash and would rather see something new. Nintendo would also be wise to promote a future title, as they have sunk time and costs into production and would be seeking financial return from their investments. Nintendo has plenty of new games down the pipeline, so I don't think it's wise to assume that the VGAs is guaranteed to have a Smash anouncement, all things considered. Nintendo usually has Directs on January, and the timing would be perfect for fighter 5 considering the rumors of a February release.

 

[Night Gale]

I'm anticipating a dual reveal in December.

 

[Latyon]

1) You assume 'worldwide influence' is a major factor (and even then, I'd say Shantae isn't in a much stronger place).
2) Touhou has a longer history and greater legacy than either of them (17 mainline games + official spinoffs + the material put out by the fan community)
3) Touhou is really, really big and has a lot of incredibly dedicated fans. Because of the nature of the world, its characters, and the loose IP restrictions, you have entire communities that love it as a property without even playing the mainline games.
3b) There's a notable number of people in the fanbase that are the type to throw down money whenever Touhou's involved. So I'd say there's a much better chance to see people willing to buy Smash specifically because of Reimu/Touhou content than there would be for most other characters.

I'm not saying I think Reimu is likely, as I still think that stuff from major studios has a better chance, but Touhou has a lot of merit to it as an indie pick and its certainly not some small, irrelevant thing, especially if its being held up against properties like Shantae and Shovel Knight.

People keep saying it is this huge thing but literally not a single one of my friends who are obsessed with anime even know what a Reimu is. I have only ever heard of it because of Smash. Literally what the eff is Touhou

 

[Deleted member]

Nintendo usually has Directs on January, and the timing would be perfect for fighter 5 considering the rumors of a February release.

The last General Direct that happened in January was in 2015, which was before they moved onto their three general directs per year approach. I personally doubt a direct will reveal FP5, explain them, and release them on the same day.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Huh... So Sabi is making his bet right now by saying that... It's actually a 50/50 decision... So let's consider some stuff...

1) His insiders: Soooo... Assuming they know who the fifth character is... Aren't they under NDA? Why would they casually break NDA to give some low-priority journalist what he wants to know? This is why I don't believe a single textual leaker that claims they got insiders...
2) Insiders, the Revenge: So, let's assume there are insiders... Why oh why they are willing to give info to some guy instead of doing it themselves and earn the fame? Do they owe Sabi a big favor and are doing these because of that? Sabi is paying for the info? (Very unlikely)
3) Sabi is wrong: What's going to happen when whatever info Sabi provides is not right? Has he apologized? Has he made a stupid excuse? Does he have the balls to admit he is wrong in, at least, one ocassion?

Sorry, but his words are meaningless to me, and this is the first time I see Sabi sweating balls wanting info on this leak, so right now, what I believe is, he made his decision... There's no insiders, just his common sense as the judge of what happens to a leak.

Jesus this ride is never gonna end until Vergeben speaks up isn't it?

Doom Slayer and Geno are in the running again!

 

[osby]

People keep saying it is this huge thing but literally not a single one of my friends who are obsessed with anime even know what a Reimu is. I have only ever heard of it because of Smash. Literally what the eff is Touhou

Google is your friend.

 

[NobleClamtasm]

The last General Direct that happened in January was in 2015, which was before they moved onto their three general directs per year approach. I personally doubt a direct will reveal FP5, explain them, and release them on the same day.

My point is, due to the nature of Directs they can decide when to announce FP5 literally whenever they want. Why must it be tied to a western event when other Nintendo games are in more need of promotion?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I hope not January. I wouldn't survive...

 

[Mastermiine]

Wait.
Sakurai said popularity doesn’t matter as long as they have an intresting moveset.
Sackboy would probably have one of the most unique moveset out of any Sony Rep.
It’s time boys.

This! Plus sackboy could have his skins be costumes of other Playstation Characters.

1. Sackboy
2. Kratos
3. Joel/Ellie
3. Cole McGrath
4. Alloy
And so on.

Or Sackboy could be like a Kirby and copy moves. Since Sackboy has so many costumes in LBP.

 

[AmphabulouSnake]

Y'all know we probably will get other nintendo content at the VGAs on top of Smash DLC right ?
Smash 100% will be there I think, but that doesn't mean there won't be anything else like BoTW2 or some new stuff...
Needn't remind you last year had both Joker announced AND Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3 soooo

 

[Deleted member]

My point is, due to the nature of Directs they can decide when to announce FP5 literally whenever they want. Why must it be tied to a western event when other Nintendo games are in more need of promotion?

I tie it to the western event as it seems the most logical inference given how much time Sakurai has left to reveal FP 5. We also have no real evidence for how much progress upcoming games like BOTW 2 or Metroid Prime 4 have, so expecting them is less based on anything concrete or available and is more "maybe."

 

[NobleClamtasm]

I tie it to the western event as it seems the most logical inference given how much time Sakurai has left to reveal FP 5. We also have no real evidence for how much progress upcoming games like BOTW 2 or Metroid Prime 4 have, so expecting them is less based on anything concrete and is more "maybe."

You're not considering the unknown number of unnanounced titles that Nintendo has up their sleeve. Honestly, all this VGA hype has been riding off the assumption that Doomguy is FP5, which at that scenario the VGA's would be the perfect event to reveal Doomguy. Now that he's "deconfirmed", there's no reason to assume that there's a Smash announcement at the VGA's, since the chances of a Western rep that would appeal to a VGA viewer is slim to begin with. Thinking that we'd get something from the VGAs is not much of a logical inference, moreso the pure emotional need for something to look forward to in hopes of a Smash reveal.

 

[Darkmoone1]

Man there's been quite a bit of a blow to Genos and Doomslayer. Here's hoping for TGA to provide answers.

 

[andree123]

That was always kind of the case though. Like I've been telling you all, it could be fake but still coincidentally have info that is right. I think people are too hung up on #5 because we're probably going to get another year of DLC once it passes. Besides, from what I know, #5 probably boils down to two characters that people decently want or a curve ball so I think it's going to be a good reveal either way. Yeah, sucks it's not Geno but nobody has expected Geno to be part of the Fighter Pass since August anyways.

Like a lot of NPCs that nobody expects them to be promoted as DLC fighters or just more characters that were not in smash?

Stuff like sprits.

Oh boy, this may change DLC fighter predictions.

EDIT:

No. From what I've gathered, Season 2 would be overwhelmingly about fan service with maybe like 2 possibly being tied to promotions.

I'm holding on the Howard twins from Astral Chain and a Pokemon from Sword and Shield to join in the battle as promotional characters.
I'm thinking this is the reason why Banjo and Hero didn't take the two placeholder slots in the WOL CSS files, but I'm hoping for info that Terry did not take a placeholder slot.

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

The thing is, Smash has already made its money. Having Joker revealed last year made sense since Ultimate just released at that point in time, and Nintendo needed to drum up hype for Smash DLC in general. A year later, I think it's come to a point where most normies have moved on from Smash and would rather see something new. Nintendo would also be wise to promote a future title, as they have sunk time and costs into production and would be seeking financial return from their investments. Nintendo has plenty of new games down the pipeline, so I don't think it's wise to assume that the VGAs is guaranteed to have a Smash anouncement, all things considered. Nintendo usually has Directs on January, and the timing would be perfect for fighter 5 considering the rumors of a February release.

Going to have to disagree that “Normies have moved on”. Smash is referred to as an “Evergreen” title by Nintendo itself, meaning that it continues to sell well even months/years after it’s release.

With the holiday season coming up, many people will be buying Switch and Switch Lites, and according to Nintendo a title that has one of the best attachment rates for the console is Smash Ultimate. There will most likely be other reveals, but it would be smart to advertise the fighter pass when many people will be getting a Switch/Smash for Christmas.

 

[GKMLTTSB]

I don't even know who that is but this drawing spoke to me on a spiritual level.

Eirin Yagokoro. Old lady. Created the Hourai Elixer that left Kaguya Houraisan and Fujiwara no Mokou immortal.
Here's an orchestral arrangement of her theme:

People keep saying it is this huge thing but literally not a single one of my friends who are obsessed with anime even know what a Reimu is. I have only ever heard of it because of Smash. Literally what the eff is Touhou

A) Touhou isn't anime. Just saying. >_>
B) It's... really not obscure, so if they're part of pretty much any online communities into Japanese content, they'd likely have to go out of their way to avoid encountering in some way or another, be it memes, music, crossover games, etc.

Hell, even outside of weeb circles, it shows its face.
Alpharad videos have featured Touhou music and characters, for instance, and his stuff is much more designed for mainstream (Smash) consumption.

 

[NobleClamtasm]

Going to have to disagree that “Normies have moved on”. Smash is referred to as an “Evergreen” title by Nintendo itself, meaning that it continues to sell well even months/years after it’s release.

With the holiday season coming up, many people will be buying Switch and Switch Lites, and according to Nintendo a title that has one of the best attachment rates for the console is Smash Ultimate. There will most likely be other reveals, but it would be smart to advertise the fighter pass when many people will be getting a Switch/Smash for Christmas.

Maybe I should rephrase my position. Yes, I am aware that there is value for Smash to be at the vgas. In comparison however, showcasing a full new game at the VGAs has a substantially higher precedent for Nintendo. At the end of the day, FP5 is just a $6 DLC - hardly much of a comparison a potential $60 full-budget game that's in need of hype.

 

[Deleted member]

You're not considering the unknown number of unnanounced titles that Nintendo has up their sleeve. Honestly, all this VGA hype has been riding off the assumption that Doomguy is FP5, which at that scenario the VGA's would be the perfect event to reveal Doomguy. Now that he's "deconfirmed", there's no reason to assume that there's a Smash announcement at the VGA's, since the chances of a Western rep that would appeal to a VGA viewer is slim to begin with. Thinking that we'd get something from the VGAs is not much of a logical inference, moreso the pure emotional need for something to look forward to in hopes of a Smash reveal.

You're right. I'm not considering big new announcements from Nintendo because what else can I expect? We literally have nothing to go off of with that unless I've been missing something these past few weeks.

But tell me. Can you look at the current Fighter Pass marketing from the past year and tell me that FP 5 will be revealed in a general February direct, explained my Sakurai personally, and then released on the same day? Or can you ignore that advertising the full completed FP before the holidays is a great way to market it to those who haven't purchased it or Smash yet? It might be based off of my own desire to see it, but I'm also thinking about general business sense and how smart it is to take advantage of the holidays.

I'm ready to put a foot in my mouth if I'm wrong, but I'd be shocked completely if Nintendo didn't capitalize on one of their biggest selling Switch releases to crank out even more appeal at a gaming event millions not even affiliated with Nintendo will watch.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Going to have to disagree that “Normies have moved on”. Smash is referred to as an “Evergreen” title by Nintendo itself, meaning that it continues to sell well even months/years after it’s release.

With the holiday season coming up, many people will be buying Switch and Switch Lites, and according to Nintendo a title that has one of the best attachment rates for the console is Smash Ultimate. There will most likely be other reveals, but it would be smart to advertise the fighter pass when many people will be getting a Switch/Smash for Christmas.

If normies have completely moved on, would Terry's presentation have been #1 trending on YouTube?

 

[BZL8]

Let's switch gears. How does a representative from Falcom sound like? It is one of the big three JRPG companies back then alongside Square and Enix. We got Cloud and Hero who each represent one half of Square-Enix; it would be nice to get someone from Falcom that completes the trio.

 

[NobleClamtasm]

If normies have completely moved on, would Terry's presentation have been #1 trending on YouTube?

Because it's Smash. It already has strong word-of-mouth reach. As you just proved, Smash DLC does not need a big event like the vga's to be trending.

 

[CodakTheWarrior]

Anyone else think that Gooigi would make for an excellent Luigi echo? I’ve been thinking about it and given LM3’s recent release and popularity and how Gooigi is a literal clone of Luigi, he’d make like the perfect echo imo, I hope he gets in somehow

 

[Jomosensual]

Anyone who thinks Nintendo wouldn't reveal a character that wouldn't necessarily be the best to reveal at the Game Awards needs to remember that they were ballsy enough to reveal a playable Cranky Kong in DKCTF as their sole headliner for the 2013 VGX (the precursor to the Game Awards).

I see no issue with this as Cranky is the superior Kong

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Oh boy, this may change DLC fighter predictions.

EDIT:

I'm holding on the Howard twins from Astral Chain and a Pokemon from Sword and Shield to join in the battle as promotional characters.
I'm thinking this is the reason why Banjo and Hero didn't take the two placeholder slots in the WOL CSS files, but I'm hoping for info that Terry did not take a placeholder slot.

Have dataminers found out if Terry took a place in the WOL CSS files or not too?

also “stuff like spirits” - so what you’re saying is they’re the only NPCs you can expect to be promoted, not ATs?

 

[SNEKeater]

Perhaps we should also remember to take into consideration that there might not be a Smash reveal at the Game Awards and Nintendo decides to showcase something else (MP4, BOTW2, Bayonetta 3, etc.).

Yeah. It's possible they will have a Smash reveal alongside another thing, but I don't know maybe we will get a Bayo3 and BotW2 trailer and nothing about Smash (and I honestly would be totally okay with that, I like Smash but I also want other things from Nintendo). MP4 I don't think so because it's in early development, but Zelda and Bayonetta 3 are big and expected titles and both could reappear in the Game Awards.

 

[D019]

There are plenty of options:

Spoiler: The Hakurei Shrine (most likely)

Spoiler: The Bamboo Forest of the Lost

Spoiler: Eientei

Spoiler: Scarlet Devil Mansion

Spoiler: Hakugyokurou

Spoiler: Yokai Mountain

Spoiler: The Moriya Shrine

Spoiler: The Palace of the Earth Spirits

Spoiler: Myouren Temple

Spoiler: The Hall of Dreams' Great Mausoleum

Spoiler: Shining Needle Castle

Spoiler: Kourindou

Spoiler: Bhava Agra

etc.

Hell, the stage could be a Gensoukyou tour where Yukari portals the entire stage and everyone on it to various locations rather than it being a traditional travelling stage.

Shining Needle Castle would be great with screen-flip assist trophy

got ideas for tour stage type:

1. your yukari gap stage

Spoiler: Yukari's gap

sorry, found no better image

2. palanquinn ship tour entire gensokyo

Spoiler: Palanquinn ship

3. celestial keystone platforms (basically moving bhava agra stones)

 

[Night Gale]

People keep saying it is this huge thing but literally not a single one of my friends who are obsessed with anime even know what a Reimu is. I have only ever heard of it because of Smash. Literally what the eff is Touhou

You may not know it but you know of it and likely the bullet hell genre it helped popularize. You might as well take time to learn about it because the more you explore online, the more likely you are to run into that sh*t without even trying to. The world is bigger than your group of friends. Hell, I keep running into it by virtue of liking things from Japan.

 

[Mango The Magician]

I could see a Jan direct and then a release in Feb for FP5, and I say this not just because I want something other than Smash at the VGAs...

Give me BOTW2...I care way more about that than whoever FP5 is.

 

[DarthEnderX]

She's even had her own games in Japan. Mobile, puzzle-games, sure, but still!

And she's Chinese, so if you want to appeal to the Chinese market, there's representation right there... Or something.

She needs a gas mask and an umbrella.

I'm sorry , but i think that morrigan could still be done decently for cero friendly.. but jedah? there is no way you can make him cero friendly withouth butchering the character...

Always a nonsense argument.

Every game publisher would gladly welcome the butchering of their character if it got them into Smash.

For someone who just woke up, would anyone mind explaining why Doomguy/geno are suddenly out of the running for pass #5? Appreciated

Fake leakers deconfirming fake leaks.

If Sakurai is a cool guy he'll add the proper Capcom and Bamco choices.

He will.

Honestly, props to Sabi to saying it straight for once. Hope she does it more often. Now we can close the Geno & DOOM saga of FP 5 speculation.

I could...if I believed they actually knew anything.

I don't get how that is bad publicity. Since I am pretty sure American or not Reimu might be well received there due to Smash hype. Plus I am pretty sure that there are some Americans at Game Awards who knows and probably wanted Reimu.

You're completely delusional.

If you want to hear the loudest chorus of "Who?!" ever, announce Reimu at the VGAs.

 

[Deleted member]

Maybe I should rephrase my position. Yes, I am aware that there is value for Smash to be at the vgas. In comparison however, showcasing a full new game at the VGAs has a substantially higher precedent for Nintendo. At the end of the day, FP5 is just a $6 DLC - hardly much of a comparison a potential $60 full-budget game that's in need of hype.

That's ignoring his point that people will buy a Switch and purchase Smash at the same time for the holidays. Smash is the full budget game being advertised in this case, compared to upcoming titles that aren't even released yet. Consider this. If you were a parent and you wanted to buy a present for your child this upcoming Christmas, what would you buy? A game that's out or a game that isn't out yet? That's the kind of consumer logic we're using here.

Because it's Smash. It already has strong word-of-mouth reach. As you just proved, Smash DLC does not need a big event like the vga's to be trending.

Twisting this around, Nintendo also doesn't need the VGA to advertise new games if literally any general direct can do it.

 

[BernkastelWitch]

I'll never get why "Who" and "Literally Who" have become such a big thing in Smash. It just says something about how some characters need more recognition and love and not be in a narrow minded tunnel. It just gets annoying to see.

And really, no matter who #5 is, there'll be some level of backlash. Whether it's Doom Slayer, Geno, KOS-MOS, An RE Rep, Reimu, etc etc there'll be some sort of backlash. And it tends to die down a week or two after their announcements.

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

Maybe I should rephrase my position. Yes, I am aware that there is value for Smash to be at the vgas. In comparison however, showcasing a full new game at the VGAs has a substantially higher precedent for Nintendo. At the end of the day, FP5 is just a $6 DLC - hardly much of a comparison a potential $60 full-budget game that's in need of hype.

I get what you mean, but it’s not like Nintendo is limited to just one announcement, last VGA we had Joker and Ultimate Alliance reveals. I’m pretty sure we’ll get both a Smash reveal and a reveal/closer look at an upcoming title.

 

[Door Key Pig]

I'd say VGA is the best time to advertise Smash before the holidays since it's already out (unlike Bayo 3 or BOTW2) and apparently the entire Earth hasn't purchased Smash or its DLC yet

Plus I don't really know when else they can reveal FP 5. The original time for the FP to end is Feb. 2020. Now consider that we have never received a DLC Fighter reveal and Sakurai stream on the same date, because they're always at least two months apart. December is the perfect time to reveal them if they stick to that pattern.

And I know patterns and Smash don't go well together, but the DLC has been consistent with revealing a fighter and then waiting months before explaining it. It's practically their marketing structure when 4 of the 5 fighters followed the trend. FP5 is definitely gonna be revealed at VGA.

Actually Terry was revealed at the same time Banjo's stream went out, and there was only like a month between Hero's announcement and stream.

 

[Plank08]

This! Plus sackboy could have his skins be costumes of other Playstation Characters.

1. Sackboy
2. Kratos
3. Joel/Ellie
3. Cole McGrath
4. Alloy
And so on.

Or Sackboy could be like a Kirby and copy moves. Since Sackboy has so many costumes in LBP.

Yeah, the gimmick I had in my Sackboy Moveset was that Sackboy would be able to customize himself with all types of costumes, and you could make your own.

 

[Deleted member]

Actually Terry was revealed at the same time Banjo's stream went out, and there was only like a month between Hero's announcement and stream.

But that proves my point. A character's reveal trailer and their presentation are never on the same date.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sakurai showcased FP 5 and then revealed the first post pass character.

 

[Captain Fun]

I'll never get why "Who" and "Literally Who" have become such a big thing in Smash.

because some of the people in this fanbase think flexing their ignorance on a topic makes anything other than them look bad

 

[NoBS]

Maybe I should rephrase my position. Yes, I am aware that there is value for Smash to be at the vgas. In comparison however, showcasing a full new game at the VGAs has a substantially higher precedent for Nintendo. At the end of the day, FP5 is just a $6 DLC - hardly much of a comparison a potential $60 full-budget game that's in need of hype.

Just having smash as a possibility at the vgas will increase viewership by a lot which is good for everyone more than just Nintendo. The dorito Pope would probably love a smash reveal for his viewership alone.

 

[GKMLTTSB]

She needs a gas mask and an umbrella.

Well, she's already a corpse, so she's got that going for her. >_>