Kirbyoshi
Smash Apprentice
I think Mason should stay quiet. He could still be a Wolf, and a Mason claim now is unconfirmable, since the other Mason is dead.
Right now, I'm pretty sure SSBF is one scum. His most recent post solidified that in my mind. However, this is a very unique situation for town. Our best option here, in my opinion, is a No Lynch. Notice that even if we lynch scum, after the NK it will be 1vs1, which means a win for whichever scum faction did not get lynched. Weird, at this point lynching town is better for us than lynching scum >.>
Right now, it is 2T(own)/1M(afia)/1W(olf).
-If we lynch Mafia, it will be 2T/1W, and after Night, 1T/1W, Wolves win. Same situation for if we lynch the Wolf.
-If we lynch town, it will be 1T/1M/1W, with 2 Night Kills. More likely than not, there will only be one person left alive, and whoever is left alive wins the game for their team. However, there is only a 25% chance (50% of being left alone by the Mafia x 50% chance of being left alone by the Wolf) that the Townie will live through the Night.
-If we No Lynch, it will still be 2T/1M/1W going into Night. If both Townies die, Mafia and Wolves joint win. If one Townie and one scum die, whichever scum lived wins. However, if both scum die, Town wins. If a Townie is double-targeted, I think we will go into a Day 5, with a Kingmaker scenario (one in which the remaining Townie decides which scum faction will win, since it is at that point impossible for Town to win).
Our best decision is to No Lynch.
Vote: No Lynch
Right now, I'm pretty sure SSBF is one scum. His most recent post solidified that in my mind. However, this is a very unique situation for town. Our best option here, in my opinion, is a No Lynch. Notice that even if we lynch scum, after the NK it will be 1vs1, which means a win for whichever scum faction did not get lynched. Weird, at this point lynching town is better for us than lynching scum >.>
Right now, it is 2T(own)/1M(afia)/1W(olf).
-If we lynch Mafia, it will be 2T/1W, and after Night, 1T/1W, Wolves win. Same situation for if we lynch the Wolf.
-If we lynch town, it will be 1T/1M/1W, with 2 Night Kills. More likely than not, there will only be one person left alive, and whoever is left alive wins the game for their team. However, there is only a 25% chance (50% of being left alone by the Mafia x 50% chance of being left alone by the Wolf) that the Townie will live through the Night.
-If we No Lynch, it will still be 2T/1M/1W going into Night. If both Townies die, Mafia and Wolves joint win. If one Townie and one scum die, whichever scum lived wins. However, if both scum die, Town wins. If a Townie is double-targeted, I think we will go into a Day 5, with a Kingmaker scenario (one in which the remaining Townie decides which scum faction will win, since it is at that point impossible for Town to win).
Our best decision is to No Lynch.
Vote: No Lynch