Since 3.02, this MU has been pretty much dead even, 50/50. Not much has changed with their neutral game / punish game and recoveries are essentially the same, if not buffed from 3.02. As K9 said from an interview post-tourney, it's a lot of work on metaknight's side. The matchup is stressful at high level (less so in 3.6 due to Lucas magnet nerfs). Patience will be a blessing.
Funny enough
this video from one of our locals was recorded recently. It gives a decent representation of how the matchup is played.
- In neutral, MK should be looking to punish PKF by powershields tilts, dash attack, and Nair. I don't believe Fair cuts thru PKF. MK can convert tech chases into some move that forces Lucas offstage such as Nair, Dsmash, DownB (on a read/combo). Dthrow in 3.6 always forcing knockdown is a great buff.
- A lot of Lucas' moves can be CC'd and MK's Dtilt is a perfect punish move. Be aware of his Dair (you want to SDI to the side or up and tech). His other attacks can be SDI'd away and most attacks you want to DI
BEHIND Lucas. His down throw, magnet, Uair, and Dair especially should be DI'd slightly behind and up.
- Shielding and being unsafe with defensive maneuvers is a bad idea. Lucas has great burst movement (quick run speed & DACUS) in addition to PKF. His magnet and aerial attacks are amazing pressure tools that convert easily on MK. I've noticed that MK's shield gets shield poked easier than other characters and diminishes quickly.
- Lucas will be looking for grabs and conversions from his aerials and PKF. Do your best to not get juggled as Lucas combos MK better with Uairs compared to Fair strings that send you across the stage (MK is at a weird combo weight IMO).
- If you're patient enough, you can catch Lucas slipping in neutral and beginning to fish for attacks to land. This is how the MU should be played
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- MK's punish game relies on tech chasing and getting Uair strings. Lucas is lightweight and can die easily if you get a nice meaty hit. Be extremely patient and wait for your opportunity. PKF is about -12 on shield which is equivalent to someone dash attacking you.
- Respect magnet and Nair on shield but know you can shield grab Fair, Dair and Bair. Shield grabs can change momentum against Lucas instantly.
- Punish tether by rising Nair's long lasting hitbox or force the ledge hop then Dair or Bair when he's vulnerable.
-His UpB has 20 frames of special landing lag. Don't attempt to challenge Lucas off-stage unless you're 100% sure your Fair / Nair will connect before PKT2. PKT1 can't be gimped like Ness' PKT1. PKT2 isn't nearly as deadly and can be SDI'd out of the hitboxes easily. Most Lucas' are terrible at sweet spotting so you can throw a Down / Forward smash out if they're aimed at the ledge / ground or catch them before landing with a Nair. If they do happen to land, go for a grab and throw them off-stage again or wrack up damage by Dthrow tech chasing. Lucas players will attempt to retreat back towards ledge and avoid a punish or they will mix up their landings by drifting back. Just be aware of this.
- Lucas will constantly throw out hitboxes and be the aggressor. If they have safe aggression, there's little MK can do. Just know that your tilts out range Lucas and can keep up with his ground speed if your reactions are fast enough.
- Realize how the Lucas player likes to combo and anticipate which move is coming next so you can DI properly. Bad DI vs Lucas will lead to longer drawn out combos and easier followups that can lead to stocks being lost faster. Dthrow -> Bair will kill 10-30% sooner than an upthrow, Dthrow/Dair -> Upsmash kills around 80-100%, etc.