- Pikmin 3 = Olimar confirmed for Smash 4
- Year of Luigi (Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon, New Super Luigi U, & Mario & Luigi Dream Team) = Luigi confirmed for Smash 4
- Wind Waker HD = Toon Link confirmed for Smash 4
Toon Link completely confirmed the pattern for me, with Peach being an outlier. We just have to get a new Pokémon character confirmed by the time Pokémon X & Y show up.
Also, since Nintendo is collaborating with Sega for 3 more Sonic games, Sonic will likely be reconfirmed when Sonic Lost World comes out. Smash 4 might even be the unrevealed 3rd game in that collab deal. At this point, it's going to be sheer madness if he doesn't show up, whether others want him to or not.
I wonder if they'll do something like make Toon Link disappear from the Spirit Tracks stage if someone is playing as Toon Link.
Probably we'll find out soon enough, since if that's not the case, Sakurai won't be able to resist using Toon Link next to Engineer Link as a Pic of the Day.
That probably won't happen. Because the Engineer Link is actually a different Toon Link from the one Smash lets you play as. Spirit Tracks takes place a century after Phantom Hourglass, so the ST stage has its own Toon Link while the playable one is from WW & PH.