Unvote
FF is the only person making sense right now, and despite my irks with him, I have to agree with his line of reasoning.
Push Boat, since he would be a fine fallout for right now.
Vote: Boatchouli
i'll be back for the deadline.
Dude go for circus instead. He's the most obvious opportunist and after his latest gem of a post he's only strengthening that scummyness.
I just got online, and there's a mountain of quote warring going on this thread that I have to weed through. Feels like there are a million and a half things that I want to respond directly to, and then a heap of new garbage gets hoisted on top of it.
Your comments on a No Lynch being better in this situation are horse**** and smack of desperate scum to me.
LOL. That's some big talk you got there. Mind trying to actually substantiate your claim that my analysis is BS instead of just dismissing it and calling me wrong? I'd LOVE to see you try. At the very least I'll have the satisfaction of showing how absolutely deplorable your command of the mafia metagame is before I get killed because of people who can't think rationally.
RR:Then why didn't you post an ACTUAL CASE AGAINST ME? If the meta wasn't the thrust of your reasoning to believe I'm scum then why didn't you say the thrust?
Most of it had been covered at least in passing and on a few occasions where OS was discussion your simple playstyle and criticizing it before the huge meta case. I didn't elaborate much on exactly what my major thrust was, and you're well within your rights to criticize me for that. I don't really have a defense for that, all I can say is that I didn't have anything particularly unique to contribute concerning my read of you and didn't feel like saying it for the sake of saying it.
You can criticize me for that all you want. It was bad town play, yeah, I can own up to that. Don't ****ing indict me for **** I didn't do though. And I REALLY don't think me simply not explicitly stating all my reasons for wanting you lynched is SO scummy that it outweighs the fact I've been consistent and transparent about my read of you all game leading up to your claim.
The closer it is to deadline more difficult it is to actually force a lynch to happen. Yes they CAN, but the odds of it happening are ridiculously low when we have to switch at such a late date.
Well then why didn't you
say that the odds were just lower? Why DID you
say that we "didn't have time" for another lynch? OMG WHY ARE YOU BACKING DOWN FROM YOUR PREVIOUS STANCE AB?!?! HURR DURRRR. See how ****ing annoying that is?
No, deadline lynches net NO info, not bad info and it improves numerical odds.
No lynches are that without improving numerical odds.
There are too many people that need to die to skip a valuable lynch.
Wrong.
Let's take a look at our little scenario here.
You guys are trying to rush a last minute lynch on me, right now. Here's what can happen.
1.) I don't claim and you guys last minute lynch me.
2.) I claim and you guys still last minute lynch me.
3.) We no lynch.
In scenario 1, town just gets to know what I was which is pretty useless after the fact, you guys are either down a VT OR a PR (varying degrees of severity of the loss) AND scum has one less person to deal with, has a numerical advantage getting their first free mislynch, and can get their free night kill.
In scenario 2, town gets to know what I am before I die, but then lynches me anyway so my claim is basically useless, and the limited info you MIGHT get would be people discussing the implications of my claim before deadline, which would amount to a few hours of discussion at the most with BY YOUR OWN ADMISSION very few people. Then again, mafia has secured their first mislynch, the town is down a VT at best and a very important PR at worst, so scum is at an advantage (of varying severity) and they don't have to deal with me anymore. They they get their free NK.
In scenario 3, town gets no info and nothing to discuss in terms of flip. This is the ONLY downside town faces in this scenario. However, in this scenario the town BENEFITS from NOT risking the loss of a VT (at best) or a PR (at worst) AND the scum is left to their own WIFOM deliberations about what I may or may not be, and has to decide whether my refusal to claim indicates I'm a PR or I'm a VT. The ball is now in their court and they don't get to get rid of me for free like the do in the other scenarios. Furthermore, since they don't know my role, they remain in the dark as to the nature of the setup and don't get valuable info as to what other people might be based on what I claim. They only net one townie kill from the whole exchange, as opposed to two.
Though I can imagine you might retort saying that the scum getting to get rid of two townies is a good thing now since we have a better chance of hitting scum next time. I still don't understand how you don't see the problem with that logic.
In scenario 3 BOTH factions are left without info. In the other two, the scum ABSOLUTELY GAINS THE ADVANTAGE, WITH THE WORST CASE SCENARIO BEING WE MISLYNCH A VERY USEFUL PR RIGHT OFF THE BAT THAT THE SCUM DIDN'T EVEN HAVE TO FIGHT TO GET LYNCHED.
No Lynch is absolutely better than rushed last minute lynches. Without the ample discussion surrounding roleclaims and the wagons leading up to them, all the purported benefits the town gets from lynching, even mislynching, go right down the ****ing drain and anyone with half a brain should be able to see that.
RR, he's lashing out against everyone and everything to avoid his lynch, even not missing lynches.
That's a lie. You're trying to imply that I'm lashing out against almost everything against me SIMPLE because it's against me. You're establishing a false cause. I'm lashing out against most things and people against me because THE ATTACKS AGAINST ME ARE TERRIBLE AND THE PEOPLE VOTING ME ARE BLATANT OPPORTUNISTS. RR was against me and I didn't lash out against him because he had the only reasonable stance. That example proves your standard for characterizing my play as false, since it can't account for that discrepancy. Nice try though.
Do you know how much town win rate drops with a no lynch? Even a deadline lynch improves numerical superiority, and it's not bad info, it's just sheer nullness.
Oh yeah, go ahead and try to be cool and cite your bull**** mafia scum NEWBIE GAME NO LYNCH WIN RATE STATISTICS. The applicability of that study to CLOSED SETUPS, WITH VETERAN PLAYERS, WITH VARIOUS AND MORE POWERFUL POWER ROLES is limited to the point of basically being irrelevant. Furthermore, just because avoiding No Lynch is GENERALLY a good thing, doesn't mean it is ALWAYS a good thing, and I've thoroughly explained to you WHY this scenario is NOT a good time to be enforcing the "No Lynch is a bad idea" principle.
Your logic is literally a ****ing trainwreck. You are LITERALLY taking the stance that in ANY circumstance, a RANDOM UNINFORMED LYNCH is BETTER than a NO LYNCH, which is absolutely absurd. And I'm not even straw manning. Based on the principles you're espousing, that is a NECESSARY assumption for you to work with as a mantra of basic strategy.