Our bane will be on the edgeguarding. If we get caught there than Mario will have a field day on us racking up damage and getting KOs. But other than that Falco has the advantage on stage.
Lasers easily out pace mario even with the Cape. SHL/SHDL to reflector beats out pretty much all other reflection attempts. Therefore Cape used to reflect right back at us isn't that much of a problem. Heck, it might even be helpful because then we can do some baiting with it.
Mario is a close range fighter, and therefore a bit easier to get a CG on. I see tons of damage being racked up from this and the ending tech chase, etc. Mario's options at far distance are negligable. He can pretty much just reflect us with a cape. Just do lasering at this point. Reflector if you wish to beat out the cape.
Mid range he as a few more option as any might prove to be approaches. One is a SH fireball to an attack, SH Dair, SH Bair, and SH Bair to name a few of the aerial methods. Ground methods are pretty much Dash attack and that's about it. Of those approaches, the dash attack is surprising, but a dud on block. Just punish that. SH fireball can be a pain, as shielding might lead to you getting grabbed, or getting hit by it means Mario has a free hit on you. If you reflect, mario gets hit. But at that close range normally means little knockback and you could get punished in the cooldown. Nair is pretty easy to avoid so long as you aren't jumping into it. A spaced SH Bair I believe is the hardest to deal with. It as virtually no landing lag, and on block, it normally slides Falco back far enough he cannot hit Mario with something. Reminds me a lot of Wolf's Bair. SH Dair is probably used sparingly as it requires him to SH Dair over you in order for it to really work at all.
At close range Mario has access to a ton of stuff. Most of which can lead into a chain of attacks and thus you getting juggled and maybe even edgeguarded. The best bet is to keep Mario on a lengthy leash. Mario's Fsmash pulls his hurtbox backwards before attacking. So be careful of that.
During edgeguarding, Mario will try to recover to the edge, I believe, by going under the stage a bit. This is because all he really has to get back safely is his Cape to either stall or reflect attacks, and he has a good priority UpB. So because of this rather limited recovery, edgeguarding should be fairly good opprotunity to rack up damage. But gimping I would say is rather difficult becuase you have to time your attacks between Cape usage and beat out the UpB.
Falco being edgeguarded is a pain. If you time it wrong with a phantasm or get a tad to predictable you'll face a fludd shot (that is if you give them any time to charge it) and that will be an instant KO. The same is with the Cape, but timing it is more diffcult, though not any less deadly. If your recover with UpB, you might either get spiked with a Fair, or Stage spiked with a Bair
Enjoy.
I want to say either 55_45 or 60_40 Falco. I cannot really decide as it seems somewhere in between, but I'm leaning towards 60-40.