Majoras Mask Mafia! DGames' Longest Game Ends - Who Won?!?!?!?

[#HBC | Nabe]

Claims, role-wise:
VT x 5
(JoaT) Race Changer
Knowingly Sane Cop
n=2k Commuter
Hider
Census
Jailkeeper
Lover
Lover

Hobo (Random Partial Role Cop?)
(Unknown T-block Role)

With respect to a points system:

Spoiler

We know that one (most likely) of the claimants is lying and is actually mafia. We know that another of the claimants is lying and is actually an abductor. The poisoner is a third liar or congruent with the mafia liar or congruent with the Unknown slot.

Indy pair seems unlikely given the linked lovers, as indy pairs are often linked, but it's within plausibility. Separate indies is unbalanced.

We're sure of the Hobo (not of its description), both lovers and the Commuter, and one VT (Kantrip). Killing pool is 12/15 but really 11/14 (Lovers count as one), 10/14 if the abductor is BP. Abduction pool is 14/15 or 13/15 with an indy pair. Abductor's picks likely return to the game, suggesting perhaps contrarily that the abductor isn't BP. Maybe the abductor is BP, but not poisonproof, and mafia has poison. Acceptable balance.

The commuter is removed from both pools every N2k (subtraction of 1/x and 1/y). Town+++ overall.

JK limits both pools every Night by 1 (subtraction of 1/x and 1/y) or blocks the kill or abduct (i.e. multiplication by 0 to wipe a single pool) or targets a non-killing mafia member, which doesn't affect the kill pool but does affect the abduct pool (0/x, -1/y or vice versa). JK directly blocks its target's ability but doesn't block incoming actions to its target. Town++ overall.

Hider limits both pools (-1/x and -1/y) or shrinks both pools by targeting mafia and dying (a/b becomes a-1/b-1 for both pools) or shrinks both pools by dying with its target (a/b becomes a-2/b-2 for both pools). Hider clears townies and gets a one-shot guilty. Null overall.

Cop seems to get innocent/guilty, implying indy shows as guilty. Known to be sane. Town+++ overall.

Lovers die together and get night communication. Town--- overall.

Race changer changes race (one-shot for each race?). Affects Census and potentially Hobo. Town- overall.

Census takes race census which keeps fakeclaims within race. Town+ overall.

Town+/2 for every VT claimant, Town++ overall since we safely assume one is lying.

If Hobo is as claimed, Scum+ overall. Scum++ for scum informational advantage. Solo indy is -- to both. Total is 4 to 1, meaning scum has +++(+) to make up with two unknown roles and considering errors. Mafia poisoner is possible.

With respect to a counterweight system:

Spoiler

Commuter and Hider and Jailkeeper give a buffer to Lovers and to kills and abductions. Commuter also presumably messes up the census. Hider hides from all actions targeted towards it. Very little negative for JK. This seems balanced.

Night communication counts as an investigative. Knowingly sane cop is very powerful. Cop is Goron Elder which implies that none of the claimed VTs are millers. Expect godfather or an RB, since this setup is clearly traditionally balanced. Innocent/guilty results mean that cop trumps indy, lending credence to BP indy as a non-direct balance.

Race changer -- what is the point of this? This role messes up the census, and otherwise seems to purely satisfy flavour. The role isn't compulsive given Raz' claim of staying as a Deku, so it's not intended as an anti-town balance.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Oops, I've noticed a mistake in my analysis. Raz also has the time-affecting abilities, I forgot about that because I labelled him as a race changer. That's null as an addition to points and adds credibility for weight-counterweight against a governor.

 

[Raziek]

Race isn't compulsive, and isn't limited. I could go Deku, Goron, Deku, or whatever I chose each night.

Once Circus claimed his census I figured it would be best for Town if I didn't change around much.

Personally, I think one of the mafia roles may have something to do with having different effects depending on which race they target.

 

[Circus]

Hold on while I get some **** squared up.

 

[Inferno3044]

Although raziek's thing is a possibility, im not sure about it. I was expecting something more to deal with race than just a census.

 

[Circus]

I think that J may in fact be poisoner, especially since we thought that it was an abductor at first with nothing at all to suggest that it was a poison kill.

The abduction and the poisoning were separate incidents on separate people. There is an Abductor and a Posioner in this game.

Are you guys wondering why I kept not believing Nabe's fake claim? Because I'm the Goron Elder, Town Sane Cop. Yes, my sanity was directly confirmed in my role pm.

I investigated T-Block N1 and got a guilty, which was really, REALLY frustrating for me since he got abducted, but that's how things work sometimes. Last night I investigated Dabuz because he's been a bit inactive, and I wanted to get a clear read on him. I got an inno for him.

I'm actually surprised that I wasn't found out earlier. I kept saying "oh, it's gut feelings but I think that T-Block is confirmed scum" and stuff like that, which was honestly a bit of a mistake. However, I DID, in fact directly signal to Circus that I was cop in case I died, but I think he missed it:


Beboppin' was a direct reference to the bebop game where I was cop, and the Night part is obvious when you take the Bebop into account. I also essentially said that my sanity was confirmed.

I also directly told Circus to look closely at that specific post, but I think that he might have missed it.

I actually didn't miss this, I just couldn't, for the life of me, believe that you got Town Cop again. If you're really the Cop, then I think this is the third straight game I've played with you in which you are the Cop. This is unbelievable (I might mean that literally).

There are a couple things that are bothering me about what you're saying here, but I'll get to them in a moment.

The census I took last Night was on Dekus. I was told that there are 2 of them in Clock Town right now, which matches what we've seen from the claims so far—Raziek with a mask on and Ryu check out as the two Dekus in this game. That doesn't clear Ryu; it just means he's not lying about his race. But I'm not concerned with Ryu toDay.

One Unclassified from my second census last Night is missing, so T-block has to be it unless one of Dabuz, Kuz, or Werekill are lying. But there's one other thing we (kind of) know about T-block that relates to this census, and it has to do with the fact that I was even able to take it.

I was motivated on N1. That's how I was able to take 2 censuses. From what I can tell, no one was motivated last Night, and no one has claimed Motivator toDay. This means that T-block has to be the Motivator.

This also means that Werekills guilty claim on T-block smells hella fishy to me. How convenient that Werekill managed to Cop scum on N1, and that it managed to be scum that got abducted that very Night. It sure would be easy, in Werescum's shoes, to fake a guilty on a guy like that.

Also, not to be "that guy," but look at the roles we've seen in this game so far: Census Taker, JoaT with race and deadline changing abilities, Lost Lovers, Even-Night Commuter, Hider.... All very weird roles, though admittedly, some are yet to be totally confirmed. Even the one scum role we've seen was quite odd. You're telling me, in a game like this, Werekill's just a normal Cop? Let alone a normal Cop with confirmed sanity? I'm having trouble buying it.

I do think that Nabe's and Werekill's claims conflict with each other. Which is awkward for me since I've had them both as pretty strong town reads for most of the game. Nabe's claim is super strange, and I'm almost always wary of a claim like Hider, but in this case, I actually think his is more believable than Werekill's.

I also think Nabe's claim explains the lack of an NK on N1 rather well, and invalidates the need for Inferno's role (which is also pretty "normal," if I may go back to being "that guy" for a second)

Lynchpool for me toDay:
Werekill
Inferno
Dabuz
Acrostic

Thoughts? Particularly on my comments on T-block, please.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

That's all very good.

@MOD: Can you confirm whether or not you're using some form of NAR?

 

[Inferno3044]

Your idea on tblock makes a lot of sense considering you were motivated N1 and nobody was this night. I also don't like how WK's role says sane cop. I was a cop in my first game and although I was confirmed sane it didn't say it in my role.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

I ask about NAR because in NAR, investigative roles act last. If we're under NAR, the abduction should be prior to the investigation, meaning Werekill would definitely be caught in a lie.

 

[Inferno3044]

@circus - why does nabe's claim explain the reason behind no NK and not mine?

 

[Lore]

For whoever asked about my results: yes, I get a plain guilty or innocent, but I'd rather not post the result sentence and risk modkill.

I'll get to replying to Circus when I get to my laptop.

I ask about NAR because in NAR, investigative roles act last. If we're under NAR, the abduction should be prior to the investigation, meaning Werekill would definitely be caught in a lie.

If we are, then that is just bad modding. I will immediately post my role pm, modkill myself, and wash my hands of this game. Simple as that.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Then you're ******** and I will blacklist you from any of my future games. Simple as that.

Just woke up reading stuff.

 

[th3kuzinator]

Circus how were you informed that you were motivated?

 

[Lore]

Then you're ******** and I will blacklist you from any of my future games. Simple as that.

Just woke up reading stuff.

Really? I find no reason to stick around when the mod goofs up that badly. If he didn't actually do it, good on him, and I'll stay.

However, I will admit that a self-kill is harsh. I'll just replace out.

Circus reply incoming when I get to my laptop.

 

[Circus]

Circus how were you informed that you were motivated?

X1 told me I was. I won't quote him, but he specifically used the word. I submitted my Human census, then I got a PM from X1 telling me I had been motivated and that I got to take a second one, so then I submitted the Unclassified census. Then I got a PM back with results for both.

Werekill is panicking.

 

[Lore]

Werekill is panicking.

How? Saying that I'm going to replace out if the mod made a huge mistake? Wow, you must think that OS was majorly scum, then.

Circus, can we not go tooth and nails again this game? You're too cool for that, and I want to go ahead and say that before I really start pushing against you.

@Mod: I apologize for my harsh words and tone earlier; I've had a more than mediocre day, to say the least. However, I would love to see an answer to Nabe's question.

 

[Lore]

The abduction and the poisoning were separate incidents on separate people. There is an Abductor and a Posioner in this game.

Small question before I REALLY get to replying to this. Do you really think that there are 2 different indy killing factions here? Really? Honest question here.

I'm honestly thinking at this point that we might have an abductor who can only "take" one person at a time and poisons the rest of the time. Two indy's would be hella unbalanced.

I actually didn't miss this, I just couldn't, for the life of me, believe that you got Town Cop again. If you're really the Cop, then I think this is the third straight game I've played with you in which you are the Cop. This is unbelievable (I might mean that literally).

Oh come on. You've played two games with me out of my 5 (counting this one), and this is my first time getting cop in a DGames scenario. I don't find consistency as an issue here. Besides, RR has been said to be "always cop," and Ryker is scum a LOT from what I've seen on here, so it's not like the "hurr durr you've been cop in my last two games with you so you can't be it!" argument works here.

You're better than this.

There are a couple things that are bothering me about what you're saying here, but I'll get to them in a moment.

*waits*

The census I took last Night was on Dekus. I was told that there are 2 of them in Clock Town right now, which matches what we've seen from the claims so far—Raziek with a mask on and Ryu check out as the two Dekus in this game. That doesn't clear Ryu; it just means he's not lying about his race. But I'm not concerned with Ryu toDay.

One Unclassified from my second census last Night is missing, so T-block has to be it unless one of Dabuz, Kuz, or Werekill are lying. But there's one other thing we (kind of) know about T-block that relates to this census, and it has to do with the fact that I was even able to take it.

I was motivated on N1. That's how I was able to take 2 censuses. From what I can tell, no one was motivated last Night, and no one has claimed Motivator toDay. This means that T-block has to be the Motivator.

So you're absolutely right. No one else has been motivated, so T-Block was likely the motivator.

Here's my big question, though. Who ever said that T-Block was a TOWN motivator? I've got a guilty on him, which means that, obviously, he was scum. If we follow your logic as presented here that basically proves that he was the motivator, we can only come to the conclusion that he was a scum motivator, which would make sense if scum has an investigative role or two.

So, logically, you have to be scum since you were motivated N1.

Vote: Circus, and this is where my vote is staying.

This also means that Werekills guilty claim on T-block smells hella fishy to me. How convenient that Werekill managed to Cop scum on N1, and that it managed to be scum that got abducted that very Night. It sure would be easy, in Werescum's shoes, to fake a guilty on a guy like that.

And how convenient of you to have this easy out against my claim. I can't help it that my target got abducted N1, so I will admit that this can be a decent push against my claim.

However, this is the only valid point that I've seen so far, and it's the only one that isn't defensible on my part. There's no way that I can say "Dude, no, I swear, I investigated him" without making myself look more desperate to prove myself, so I won't get baited into doing that.

Also, not to be "that guy," but look at the roles we've seen in this game so far: Census Taker, JoaT with race and deadline changing abilities, Lost Lovers, Even-Night Commuter, Hider.... All very weird roles, though admittedly, some are yet to be totally confirmed. Even the one scum role we've seen was quite odd. You're telling me, in a game like this, Werekill's just a normal Cop? Let alone a normal Cop with confirmed sanity? I'm having trouble buying it.

"Also, not to be 'that guy' (honest, guyz), but I'm totally gonna be that guy."

In a game where we have a simple even night commuter AND a jailer (apparently) as well, I think that we can conclude that it's impossible to conclude anything based on the role names. You're better than this, and you know it.

I do think that Nabe's and Werekill's claims conflict with each other. Which is awkward for me since I've had them both as pretty strong town reads for most of the game. Nabe's claim is super strange, and I'm almost always wary of a claim like Hider, but in this case, I actually think his is more believable than Werekill's.

And how do they conflict with each other? You give no reasoning here other than "they conflict with each other."

I also think Nabe's claim explains the lack of an NK on N1 rather well, and invalidates the need for Inferno's role (which is also pretty "normal," if I may go back to being "that guy" for a second)

I do agree that it would explain the lack of NK.

Thanks a ton, Nabe. I owe you one, and I hope you see now why I kept pushing against your fakeclaim.

Lynchpool for me toDay:
Werekill
Inferno
Dabuz
Acrostic

Now that's a funny lynchpool. Where did the Dabuz hate come from? If you posted that earlier, I apologize, and I would be much obliged if you showed me where.

Thoughts? Particularly on my comments on T-block, please.

Thoughts? Well, I think you're scummy as hell.

 

[Lore]

I honestly didn't expect you to slip that badly on the motivator bit, Circus. I wouldn't have noticed it if you hadn't pointed it out. Well, I might have later, but still, thanks.

I'll also say that I was totally expecting a NK after I signaled to you and watched you completely disregard it, and leaving me alive was a mistake that I hope you soon regret, scum.

 

[Raziek]

Damn Circus, you beat me to it. I had just remembered the motivation.

Werekill is back in my lynch pool.

 

[Raziek]

Wait, where the hell are you getting Circus scum from, Werekill? You're off your rocker.

 

[Lore]

Wait, where the hell are you getting Circus scum from, Werekill? You're off your rocker.

So you're absolutely right. No one else has been motivated, so T-Block was likely the motivator.

Here's my big question, though. Who ever said that T-Block was a TOWN motivator? I've got a guilty on him, which means that, obviously, he was scum. If we follow your logic as presented here that basically proves that he was the motivator, we can only come to the conclusion that he was a scum motivator, which would make sense if scum has an investigative role or two.

So, logically, you have to be scum since you were motivated N1.

Vote: Circus, and this is where my vote is staying.

It's the only logical explanation with T-Block as scum.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

no one read my analyses ;-;

 

[Raziek]

Do you have any idea how unlikely Scum Motivator is? That's a goddamn broken role.

 

[Raziek]

I read your analysis closely Nabe.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

I can believe that WK is using the mod as a crutch. And it also seems logical that WK would use T-block as a cop pull for the sake of making the most of a poor situation after TB's abduction. That said, WK was very uppity about my claim in D1 prior to the TB abduction, so the genesis for the idea would have to have already been in place, unless he was scum trying to play the shallow game.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

@Raz, the genesis for the ScumMot idea is that none of the town players have claimed motivator, making it seemingly the only option regardless of its likelihood.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Kill me if I say genesis one more time oh man

 

[Lore]

Do you have any idea how unlikely Scum Motivator is? That's a goddamn broken role.

Not if there were two investigatives. Xastrn was an investigative, and since Circus was the only guy who was EVER motivated before T-Block was abducted, it is safe to assume that T-Block was the motivator.

T-block was scum, according to my investigation.

Circus was motivated by scum.

Circus is scum.

 

[Raziek]

You just did. *stabs*

I'm not buying CircusScum. Not a chance.

 

[Lore]

I can believe that WK is using the mod as a crutch. And it also seems logical that WK would use T-block as a cop pull for the sake of making the most of a poor situation after TB's abduction. That said, WK was very uppity about my claim in D1 prior to the TB abduction, so the genesis for the idea would have to have already been in place, unless he was scum trying to play the shallow game.

What do you mean by "as a crutch?"

 

[Lore]

You just did. *stabs*

I'm not buying CircusScum. Not a chance.

Not even with the role logic? Use your head.

 

[#HBC | Acrostic]

Xastrn claimed that he was an investigative role and Werekill|Nabe pressed on him pretty hard. At this point if both claims are true, then we have a significant amount of clears/town reads that we could use to push today's lynch.

 

[Raziek]

Not buying it today, anyway. I'm not willing to lynch Circus over Acrostic or Inferno.

 

[Lore]

Not buying it today, anyway. I'm not willing to lynch Circus over Acrostic or Inferno.

I see no reason to NOT lynch Circus, in my eyes. T-Block was scum, and there's no way that a scum motivator would motivate town, unless he wanted to do some WIFOM shenanigans. However, for the sake of my sanity, I say that we should assume that he couldn't motivate town.

Why are you so dead set on Circus being town?

Also, if any motivator was trying to be cool and hide as a VT, get the hell out here.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

What do you mean by "as a crutch?"

I mean your repeated talk about the mod, and talking to the mod, and complaint about the mod, in place of content.

 

[Raziek]

I'm dead set on Circus being Town because he's PLAYED TOWN.

How can Circus be Town given the interaction with Xastrn? Why should I believe you when the abducted T-Block is gone? Maybe you're the abductor and you're framing Circus!

You can't prove anything, and I'm not going to lynch a strong Town read on an unconfirmed Cop. Goddamn OS pulled that **** on me in Fire Emblem.

 

[Lore]

I'll go find that quote in a second.

I'm ???, Town Hider. Unclassified. Targeted Circus N1, Ryu N2.

Wait a sec, this is making my head hurt big time.

How can he have hid behind Circus if Circus is scum because he was motivated by a scum motivator?

Circus for last scum, Nabe for abductor/poisoner if (or better, when) Circus flips scum.

Also.

@Mod: Can you confirm or deconfirm if a Motivator can motivate players who aren't in the same faction? If not, that's fine.

 

[Lore]

I mean your repeated talk about the mod, and talking to the mod, and complaint about the mod, in place of content.

I've been posting content, and you know it.

I'm dead set on Circus being Town because he's PLAYED TOWN.

How can Circus be Town given the interaction with Xastrn? Why should I believe you when the abducted T-Block is gone? Maybe you're the abductor and you're framing Circus!

You can't prove anything, and I'm not going to lynch a strong Town read on an unconfirmed Cop. Goddamn OS pulled that **** on me in Fire Emblem.

Fine. Whatever. He''s played town, but you and I both know that a good scum player can easily "play town." However, it seems that you have some personal bias based on OS pulling something on you in a game, so I won't push this on you if you don't want to talk.

 

[Lore]

@Everyone: if you've played a game with a motivator, was the motivator able to motivate anyone?

 

[Lore]

I meant anyone by any faction, by the way.