Alright so as I've been reading I've noticed a trend here. A lot of slots have taken some pretty strong contingent stances on propective plays for tomorrow all based on Levi's lynch:
I find Dabunz scum much less likely than Werekill scum on a Levi scum flip.
If Levi flips scum, Murder and Bardull are town and Bunzy is scum more likely than not. If Levi flips town, invert this.
I'd go towards Werekill like a bull upon a Levi scum flip. So I agree he has a stronger chance of being scum while Dabuz is simply individually suspicious to me.
Just a few examples. I feel like we have a pretty split opinion on this, which I find interesting because even though we've had A LOT of discussion about who the play ought to be today and why Bardull/Levi are playworthy specifically, we haven't had much interactive dialogue regarding how we're coming to this conclusions about what the next move ought to be. We should be talking about this.
@ people who see Levi scum -> Dabuz scum: These slots have been opposed all ****ing game. If they are both scum, they committed to hardcore distancing and were open to bus each other early.
As I've already mentioned, I see Levi's play as incredibly survivalist. Do you think that he would go through all that trouble as scum to HARDCORE bus his partner, and then when his bus was ineffective and he started taking heat, preemptively roll claim and AGAIN try to push for the bus? That's some SERIOUS desperation for town credit, and some really shaky strategic choices to get it that obviously brought his slot a lot of scrutiny. Hell, the bussing isn't even that convincing if that's what it really is.
So basically I guess what Im asking, is do you guys see all that coming from scumLevi? He's REALLY putting all his eggs in one basket hoping that he can secure a bus lynch on bunzy first to help him ride out his fakeclaim if he's scum. I feel like an argument for Levi/Bunzy SvS really has to be explained with this kind of motivation on Levi's end. Am I missing something or is this what you all are thinking?
@ people who see Levi scum -> Were scum: This requires basically completely opposite interpretation of Levi's relationship to his partners if he's scum. Werekill has been openly whiteknighting the slot all game. He hasn't really given us many arguments that actually vindicate Levi's slot, but he has consistently been espousing a Levi town read. Levi on the other hand has certainly not returned the favor. If they are both scum thats means we have werescum who is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too obvious about openly defending his partner for no ****ing good reason, and we have scumLevi who wan't nothing to do with his partner that is openly buddying him and is trying to just look over and around the slot to focus on others and not draw attention to the grimy relationship they have. These two slots don't have much connection to each other really OTHER than the fact that werekill has never supported Levi as a play, as far as what I've seen.
So is this pretty comprehensive as far as your reasoning goes? Or am I missing something else?
Basically I'm interested in how people think that Levi's overall status in this game and his approach to distancing/buddying/ignoring certain slots can inform us of his intent. He's taken a very risky strategy and been in the spotlight almost all game. This absolutely will inform how he treats his partners and what lynch orders he pushes for assuming he's scum. We need to flesh out this analysis.
Man. The more I see Pot post, the more and more I feel the need to re-evaluate Dabuz. Pot is coming off wishy washy on Were AND Levi. Are you for real with coming up with those stances, Pot?
I don't follow you here. What connection between dabuz and Pot are you seeing? And does it actually related to pot's "wishy washyness" on were and Levi or did you just mentioned these thoughts in proximity to each other coincidentally?
Cult:
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Cult
Yakuza:
http://wiki.epicmafia.com/index.php?title=Yakuza
Levi is one of these I think.
Sorry I had to post on this account because the hydra can't post links. Going to see if zv will change that.
This is taking my theory that survivalist scum Levi is trying to buy time and extrapolating it a bit too far for my comfort. Since this is Zen posting this I'm not surprised because I'm beginning to learn that Zen often does not filter his reachy ideas as town. Spontaneous fake claim to try to play me in Monster mafia taught me that. You aren't actually convinced that this is the case are you?
Cult in a 12 man seems outrageous (and not a design call I see Rockin making). Yak is more plausible (fits survivalist mentality to a T) but its such an uncommon and swingy roll that I'm having a hard time really acknowledging it as a
likely possibility.
Regarding the Bardull v. Levi as plays debate, I have to side with Gheb on this one in that Bardull is the better play atm. Depending on what people have to say w.r.t. Levi's connections to the slots I mentioned and how we can use his opposite treatments of those slots to try to figure out which one is more likely to be his actual strategy as scum in his given situation, I could be convinced to go that route.
Bardull just hasn't done anything really to encourage me to read him as town all game. People who are town reading him just seem to be saying "yo its just bardeezy look at the kid yo he's just doing his thing", which isn't entirely convincing. Its just a gross slot that we don't need to keep around and much like the grimy ass slots that we HBC'd in Monster it just seriously needs to gtfo.
And as much as I hate to admit it Levi is right when he argues that we could be dealing with a town roleblocker. If that's the case, assuming that that slot isn't ****ing moronic if he's town, then the Levi question could easily resolve itself tomorrow without risking the mislynch. Obviously I'm not counting on this happening because I think its more like that the Rber is scum than town but I can't count the possibility out entirely.
Also if bardull flips scum and Levi comes up Rbd again tomorrow I think we can definitely take a
reallllllllly hard look at Levi and bunzy since that would make a bus committed Levi extremely, extremely convincing IMO.
This post is a waste for pointing this out but I had to. (You already had the correct grammar haha)
