Mafia All Stars: In the end, it was Nothing Special

[Evil Eye]

Ah, that makes sense. It just seemed a bit out of the blue to mention me being a miller in the same breath as godfather (which would actually click) without saying why, since the former is speculative and the latter is now a concrete possibility. That's why I was thrown.

 

[Overswarm]

Macman and Zen are my two scum picks. Macman killed one of the two, neither are good choices for a vig, and he kind of blatantly distanced himself from Zen shortly after claiming "hey, why wouldn't there be two docs?", which strikes me as odd.

Not set in stone on anything.

Still think Praxis should have claimed. -_-;;

Did I mention that Macman didn't kill Lionel Luther?

Can we lynch Macman now?

 

[X1-12]

Can Praxis's results be trusted 100%?

Mac dying looks good I think

 

[Overswarm]

*narrows eyes at X1-12*

What was your role again, X1?

 

[X1-12]

kinda loserish that you don't remember.

 

[Tandora]

Macman and Zen are my two scum picks. Macman killed one of the two, neither are good choices for a vig, and he kind of blatantly distanced himself from Zen shortly after claiming "hey, why wouldn't there be two docs?", which strikes me as odd.

Not set in stone on anything.

Still think Praxis should have claimed. -_-;;

Did I mention that Macman didn't kill Lionel Luther?

Can we lynch Macman now?

Put words to action and vote then.

 

[Overswarm]

kinda loserish that you don't remember.

Oh, I'm just forgetful.

What was it again?


Oh, and @Tandora: I'll vote when I damn well please. -_-;;

 

[X1-12]

perhaps you should re-read then

 

[Xivii]

Praxis had the same role as Chaco from this game - http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=8129413&postcount=812

This link goes to Chaco's death (which includes some flavor) http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=8014967&postcount=691

Ok that's a pretty gangsta role assuming the results are correct.

Vote: Macman

Makes sense to me. And also makes more sense for why there would be 1 and a half docs. We can almost assume that there are 3 killing roles, but now looking at Swords' death there is still doubt which I'll explain below (there would have to be a bulletproof or a ninja). However if there were 3: 2 scum have flipped, 1; Arsonist, 2. Mac has to be separate from the mafia which makes the 3rd.

N1
Scamp-roleblocker-NKed
J-unknown-NKed/Janned.

N2
Blue-vanilla- NKed
FF-goon-NKed

N3
Mentos-shrink-NKed

N4
Praxis-antegrade amnisiac-Recruited scum or NKed.
Seph-watcher-NKed



Macs claimed actions:
N1 Killed Scamp
N2 Tracked OS
N3 Tracked EE
N4 (Supposed to kill LL)

Swords actions:
N1 Attempted to shoot glg-Roleblocked
N2 Shot Blue
N3 Nothing

We can confirm that J was killed by mafia because of the jan. If Mac killed Scamp this shows he is separate from mafia.

Swords killed blue which means mafia didn't kill that night as FF (mafia) was the only other NK. I protected Tandora and Seph confirms that no one else targeted Tandora. This means that either mafia didn't make a NK (which doesn't seem likely to me, someone is bulletproof, or mafia can kill without being seen (Ninja) and targeted Tandora. As for who killed FF could have been either Gheb or Mac. Mac could be lying about tracking OS. He gave results of who OS visited but it was info out in the thread iirc. So he could have lied to hide that he has to kill every night. I'm not sure if Omni had to kill every night with that kind of SK though.

Mentos death would have to be the result of either mac or mafia. Mafia didn't have a kill the night before for some reason. No one has claimed bulletproof and if no one does that leaved the only the option that mafia can ninja kill and targeted Tandora or didn't target anyone at all. I'm doubting a ninja kill because then mafia could have killed Tandora N3 and N4 without worry of her being protected or being spotted by Seph and had both Praxis and Mac framed for Tandora dying from recruitment. So I'm leaning more that mafia didn't make a N2 kill. And it's possible that they didn't do so N3 or N4 either and that Mentos was killed by Mac N3 and Seph was killed by Mac N4 by mac and Praxis from recruiting Mac. Not sure why mafia wouldn't kill though. It could be that they can't because there were only 2 but Iunno about that. I was thinking that they targeted Seph not thinking I would protect him.

If scum have been killing then that means either Praxis or Seph could have been a scum kill. Praxis was claiming he had a powerful role which could have gotten him scum killed, but that would still mean that Macman killed Seph and is still scum for this. I'm really thinking it plausible that scum didn't kill though and that Mac killed Seph as a last move knowing that Tandora was going. The last possibility is that scum killed Seph and Mac killed Praxis. In any of the events mac comes out as differing from the plan, wasting not using our chance to NK LL, and killing someone who was essentially considered town.

@Zen: Whom did you protect last night? If you were in charge of the town, what would you suggest we do toDay?

Protected Mac.

Lynch Mac.

 

[Overswarm]

X1-12, I've forgotten your role. Just don't have time to re-read. What was it again?

 

[#HBC | Mac]

My action didn't go through last night because I missed the deadline.

I'm genuinely shocked that swords didn't flip scum. I don't really know what else to say because there isn't a way I can prove that I'm not mafia. And i'm not.

I was debating between shooting tanny(because of possible cultist) and teran yesterday.

 

[Overswarm]

http://www.smashboards.com/search.php?searchid=4083645

missed the deadline? Really?

 

[#HBC | Mac]

yea i did.

that link doesn't go anywhere but i'm assuming it's a bunch of posts I've made between that time. And ok? That doesn't mean I can't miss the deadline. I was putting it off thinking about my choice. And turned it in like 2 hrs late and I received a pm saying I missed it and they wouldn't go through.

 

[Tandora]

My action didn't go through last night because I missed the deadline.

I'm genuinely shocked that swords didn't flip scum. I don't really know what else to say because there isn't a way I can prove that I'm not mafia. And i'm not.

I was debating between shooting tanny(because of possible cultist) and teran yesterday.

So, not only did you "miss" the deadline, you were gonna go against the well established town plan?

Town, it only makes sense for ScuMac to target Seph. He knew I was supposed to recruit him last night. Since he's scum, I would die. He had to NK Seph so Seph couldn't tell us who (didn't) target me last night as obviously my death would have shown he was scum. Also, two for one town death that broke our combo would be totally sweet for him. Since town made a plan that didn't involve Seph being protected by Zen, Mac had a free ride to just kill our watcher.

Kill him, end this!

 

[Overswarm]

Just a side note, Tandora still bugs me.

 

[Evil Eye]

Hold up on the votes while I catch up. I've got a big post full of Night planning we can discuss.

 

[Evil Eye]

Seriously Tandora wtf is wrong with you. You want to kill the Day in like, 24 hours? What? There's so much that needs to be discussed, regardless of the fact that Macman seems to be caught hand-in-the-cookie-jar.

 

[Evil Eye]

Anyone that puts Mac in self-hammer range is scum.

 

[Evil Eye]

X1-12 I've forgotten your role too so how about you stop being cute and character/role claim for us right now. All I know of your role right now is what you claim to be able to do, not your character, not your role name, etc etc.

 

[X1-12]

I'm the ghostfaced killer, stalker. I thought I was gonna have to char claim when I caught gheb so I already dug up the original

Irony at its finest I just realise. Original role PM from TV Allstars Mafia

Welcome to TV-Allstar Mafia, Marshy. You are The Ghostfaced Killer, from "Scream I - III".

You are the Stalker. Each night you may choose to stalk a player by sending me a PM titled "Stalker Night Action". You have to post "Stalk: [player]" in the PM to execute this command. By doing so you will learn about the role of that player. Furthermore you are allowed to communicate with your fellow Mafia members Cacti (Dr. Evil, Roleblocker) and §teel (The Shredder, Goon) at any time. Instant messaging is recommended and you are required to send me all transcripts.
You are Mafia Alligned and you win when you have an undeniable majority over everybody else (or nothing can prevent this).

Safeclaim: Jack Sparrow from "Pirates of the Carribean" played by Johnny Depp is not in this game.

Kinda odd how after EE's re-read he can't remember my role, hmm

 

[Evil Eye]

I feel better about Zen from his play late yesterDay and especially toDay. Praxis's flip also validates the existence of a Miller Doctor in a big way, that's one of the little bonuses mafia really needs in this setup.

Mac's earlier townie-looking play makes sense for a third party; if he's a bad guy that's separate from mafia, he can scumhunt as much as he wants. Since Mac is good at it, he'd be bound to find some things he can lord over us in the long run (like LL vs GLG). His role is, through this lens, intriguing from a balance standpoint -- a serial killer with an incentive not to kill. By tracking all through the game Mac could claim tracker instead. Though this also begs the question of "why wouldn't he do that?" But that brings up WIFOM so let's not go there.

Mac, I'm curious why you agreed to be friends yesterDay. Generally you regard me with excessive distrust in mafia, yet you were down with that. Why? Surely a mere track wasn't enough? When there were other bad guys afoot to do the killing and such?

Tandora is right that scuMac's play is to whack Seph, but she's incorrect in treating this as the only possibility. If we have mafia and a killing third party, then a bit of WIFOM wrangling on their part could produce toDay's result with Macman being town. Mafia kills Seph because it's the smart call to make, Third Party recognizes this, figures Praxis will be used for the recruiting based on his posts yesterDay, and kills him to frame Mac. Chaos ensues, the bad guys sneak through another Day.

But I'm not especially eager to buy into that possibility -- it remains merely that, as far as I'm concerned. Macman is a rather obvious play.

Incoming giant post. Get a beverage.

 

[#HBC | Mac]

a mere track and stalk report was more than enough

 

[Evil Eye]

How is that odd, X1? Maybe I haven't read up to there yet derpaderp? Scummy backhand is scummy.

Why were you avoiding claiming if you knew damn well you hadn't full claimed, and being cute about it, as though you already had? Scummy defensiveness is scummy.



@Mac: Really? What if I was a godfather, which hadn't flipped yet and is heavily implied by the flip of a GOON and a jan?

 

[#HBC | Mac]

usually godfathers come up inno to cops and not trackers. That and the stalking made me alot more comfortable with you.

 

[Evil Eye]

You played an untrackable godfather in my last game. And the stalking merely confirmed "no abilities".

 

[Evil Eye]

First blush plan incoming.

Alive
4. Overswarm
5. X1-12
8. Macman
10. Evil Eye
11. Lionel Luthor
17. Zεη
18. Tandora

Pretty much as clear as you can get, mechanically speaking.
Unknown, or a bad guy.
Pretty much as scum as you can get, mechanically speaking.

Three mostly-clear players, three unknowns, one likely-scum, going by the mechanics of things. X1-12's role is completely confirmed, but not his alignment. Zen's role is softly confirmed, and fully confirmed if X1-12 dies. Seven people in total.

Barring something odd or especially illuminating, Macman is the Play toDay. If anyone disagrees, I'd be interested to hear your argument.

From here we can investigate several branches.


If there is one bad guy left:

We have a freebie pair of lynches before a 3man lylo. Worst case scenario is two mislynches and two nightkills assuming no shenanigans and Tandora doesn't recruit. At least one cleared player will be alive, because scum has only two nightkills before that can happen. And that's if Macman is even town somehow, which is mathematically improbable!

If Mac is a bad guy, on the other hand, we've lynched RIGHT and the game is done! Huzzah!

If Mac is not the bad guy, we go into D6 at 4v1 with a 33% chance of hitting scum. That's alright -- could be much better, however. We lynch mafia (good game), or we mislynch. Mafia kills another clear. 3man lylo with 2 unclears and one clear. One of the unclears is a bad guy. 50% chance.

What we need to decide is if that's how we want to play it, because there's another, riskier (but likely more rewarding) option. If we lynch Macman, and he flips town, but there's only ONE bad guy left, Tandora can recruit.

Let's say she recruits X1-12, and mafia kills me. Tandora will not be the kill in my hypotheticals because Zen is either a legitimate doctor, or a mafiat that NEEDS to play along with us for a shot at winning. So, one way or another, Tandora lives to make her action.

So, if X1 is town, D6 looks like this:

Alive
4. Overswarm
5. X1-12
11. Lionel Luthor
17. Zεη
18. Tandora

4v1, 50% chance of hitting scum, and we have a mislynch. Worst case scenario is we ML that guy, bad guy kills another clear townie, we lynch the bad guy the next Day. Good game.

If X1 is mafia, he is exposed, but Tandora dies. D6 looks like this:

Alive
4. Overswarm
5. X1-12
11. Lionel Luthor
17. Zεη

3v1 mylo, but X1 is probable scum. You guys lynch him, good game.


If there are two bad guys left:

This branches off a bit. If we have two bad guys, and Macman is one of them, then the other lies, in all probability, within the group of X1-12, Teran, and Zen. Let's explore things, right now, assuming Macman is scum.

Alive
4. Overswarm
5. X1-12
8. Macman
10. Evil Eye
11. Lionel Luthor
17. Zεη
18. Tandora

We lynch Macman, he flips scum. Let's say scum nightkills me, and Tandora doesn't recruit, and no other unforeseeable shenanigans take place.

Alive
4. Overswarm
5. X1-12
11. Lionel Luthor
17. Zεη
18. Tandora

4v1, 33% chance of hitting scum. We hit scum, game over. We mislynch X1-12 (for example), mafia kills another clear (let's say overswarm). D7 looks like this:

Alive
11. Lionel Luthor
17. Zεη
18. Tandora

Again we have a 3man lylo, 50% chance of hitting scum. We win or we lose, and that's about it.

Now, if Macman is scum, let's say Tandora does recruit. She recruits X1-12 (I come back to him repeatedly because confirming him would also confirm all of his copscans). Scum kills me.

D6 with a townie X1-12:

Alive
4. Overswarm
5. X1-12
11. Lionel Luthor
17. Zεη
18. Tandora

4v1, 50% chance of hitting scum. Daaaang!

D6 with a scum X1-12:

Alive
4. Overswarm
5. X1-12
11. Lionel Luthor
17. Zεη

Again we have 3v1 mylo but X1-12 is exposed as damn likely scum. Lynch him, good game.


If we have two bad guys left and Macman ISN'T one of them (highly unlikely but let's entertain it), things get muddier. So macman is town, I'm killed at Night, Tandora doesn't recruit.

D6:

Alive
4. Overswarm
5. X1-12
11. Lionel Luthor
17. Zεη
18. Tandora

3v2 lylo, 66% chance of hitting scum. Thin chance of losing here; otherwise, we move on to 3man lylo with one clear.

If Tandora DOES recruit and mismasons, then it's even money and scum wins. If she's on point then we have lylo but our odds are only brought up to 50%.

Two bad guys left with neither being Macman is thus the worst possible scenario for us, but it's also the least likely.



Assuming the likely and best case scenario here, let's say Macman flips scum. If we DO have another bad guy left, then it's in our best interest for Tandora to recruit. I don't think she should ever recruit Zen, because other options may present themselves in some scenarios via no lynching and having her latest recruit do the masoning for her, and we'd want Zen to be able to protect her as well. Haven't mulled on this NL-frenzy angle yet.


Zen should protect Tandora. That way, as scum OR town, Zen HAS to make sure Tandora lives on to the next Day, or he is exposed as a bad guy. If he's town, having him in play and protecting Tandora also puts the bad guy in a hell of a bind, because their options are:

1. Let the pool of clears increase by one and kill Zen. In killing Zen they remove an unclear, while Tandora produces another. Leaving us with (bing!) one unclear, and thus, likely scum. That's a hell of a noose!

2. Kill off a clear player. They only "break even" here, because in killing one, Tandora gets to add another to the roster. This leaves us with the most question marks, but there still ain't many.

3. Kill the recruit. This prevents the pool of clears from increasing, thus "breaking even" once again. Tied with the above option for "most question marks".


Tandora should recruit either X1-12 or Teran. I know I talked a lot about X1 in my hypotheticals, but this is a decision I'd rather make through scumhunting, honestly. That way we either expose them through Tando's death, or we direct Open to suggestions and comments here. The important thing is we either gain a clear or expose scum.


X1 copscans Teran. If his copscan goes through, no player is left in the game that is completely unverified.


That's all I got for now. If somebody says TLDR I'm going to punch them in the ****ing scrotum

 

[X1-12]

How is that odd, X1? Maybe I haven't read up to there yet derpaderp? Scummy backhand is scummy.

Why were you avoiding claiming if you knew damn well you hadn't full claimed, and being cute about it, as though you already had? Scummy defensiveness is scummy.

Your #1456 implied you had finished your re-read, or if you hadn't only had a small amount left to read. Considering my claim was on D2 I figured you'd know what my role is, or atleast what it does which I would pretyy much consider the same thing. I don't see what is scummy about this, I found it odd you had asked me about my role after a re-read.

I was avoiding claim to make OS re-read the thread, I don't feel like doing legwork for him after his D3 tantrum. I think if you can't remember what role someone claimed that's a definite indicator you need to re-read.

 

[Tandora]

EE, I get manic when I think I've caught scum. Especially with hard game mechanics to back me up.

We already had Gheb flip as an independent. What are the odds of yet ANOTHER independent in this sort of set up?

I think it is very likely that we only have one scum left. I have no problem waiting and making sure we have a contingency plan in effect if we mislynch. I know a lot of my early games probably could contribute to not planning carefully to losing. I know I've taken advantage of that as scum. Just wanting to make sure my stance is perfectly clear on who I think should be lynched.

I'm fine with recruiting X1 if we go into Night phase again. Just keep in mind I will not be able to talk to him because I don't get the confirm until Night is over. I would have to wait until N6 (God, I hope we don't get that far XD) to make plans with him.

 

[Evil Eye]

And I get manic in a scenario like this when people rush stuff, heh. Mac was at L-2 (I believe) and you posted the FINISH HIM dog/cat macro. Kinda alarming from my POV, given what I was working on I didn't think it was scummy though so no worries. Apologies if I was bein' dickish, but hey chica you know how I do it by now, I'm sure.

Not too worried about night talkin'. You recruiting X1 isn't so much about making plans (though that's always nice!) as it is about verifying/exposing him. I think recruiting X1 is the most reliable possible use of you as a cop-esque role, because taking a Mafia Stalker from his original game, making him the Mafia Stalker in this game, and then also making him Sneaky Recruitable would be super balls, I think. As would making him a godfather. On the other hand I could see a mafia bomb or something ridiculous also being a godfatherly or Sneaky Recruitable role, since unlike a Stalker, it's not a traditional scum role. It could also just... be a safeclaim for a godfather/some other mafia role that Teran is.

Sneaky Recruitable being the 5am term I've come up with for people that may be recruitable by the Burglar and yet antitown. However at this point I'm starting to consider that the only eccentricities about the Burglar KiKi was interested in were the ability to build a town A-Team and the restriction to mason discussion only being at night. I always thought the ability of the masonry to be infiltrated was the most interesting facet it brought to the table, but I guess he didn't necessarily agree. Still, KiKi had the role that could have been recruited... I have to imagine his mind has run many fun "what if" scenarios since Spidey Mafia.

But, hell, that's why I'm thinkin' we recruit X1. As I said I just really don't see that being a SR kind of role.

@All: What are your current thoughts on my plan?

 

[Overswarm]

Like EE's approach so far.

There is wiggle room for scum, but nothing that is really bad for us.

 

[X1-12]

8. Macman
11. Lionel Luthor
17. Zεη


These people haven't posted since EE's big post.

When all of them post and don't say anything crazy we start lynching mac.


Teran hasn't posted in 7 days

@Mod: Request Teran Prod

 

[Xivii]

Wow EE has it made. The only thing I could see as a problem is EE having a godfather role. Hed be a clear through to 2v1. I say EE because neither Tan or OS would have this and EE has mentioned it quite a few times.. but even if that were the case I think each of those scenarios through lynching Mac play out in our favor and I don't really think that it is the case, but it's plausible.

 

[Xivii]

I'm protecting Tan, yes?

 

[Tandora]

If I recruit X1 tonight, yes. Otherwise we won't know if mafia NK me or if my recruit did.

 

[X1-12]

@Mod: Request Teran Prod

 

[Overswarm]

@Mod Request Teran Prod

 

[Kirby King]

Lionel Luthor has been prodded.

 

[Tandora]

Game is pretty stalled out. Not liking the complete inactivity of LL at this point.

To review relevant points:
Overswarm, EE, and Tandora - cleared by cop (Assuming none of us are Godfather)
X1-12 - Stalker
Macman - Praxis died after visiting him last night. Considering the falling out Praxis and OS had, I highly doubt he died from NK. Also, Macman has failed to give any reasons for why he didn't Vig LL as according to the plan.
Lionel Luthor - Claimed bomb.
Zεη - Claimed doctor.

We lynch Macman.
I recruit X1 tonight
Zen protects me.
Profit?

 

[X1-12]

Seriously

any objections to just lynching mac now.

 

[Evil Eye]

Not anymore. And if you survive toNight's recruit, Tando, I say we lynch Teran before Zen.