6:4 rob's favor.
Why ROB owns Lucas:
Lucas takes a long time to do ****. He just does. When he decides to do a move, it has to connect or he has to be far enough away not to be punished. Otherwise, he gets hit halfway through.
List of lucas's moves that take under 10 frames to come out:
Jab: 2 frames
Dtilt: 3
Utilt: 4
Ftilt: 6
Nair: 4
Fair: 4
Uair: 5
Dair: 3
Same list for ROB (on a slightly inaccurate thread because you guys don't have a frame data thread):
Jab: 3
Utilt: 4
Dtilt: 3
Ftilt: 7
Dash: 7
Dsmash: 4
Fair: 7
Uair: 7
So speed is a real advantage for Rob here, who has a Dsmash and Dash attack significantly faster (to the point of advantage, anyway), and a significantly slower Nair and Dair. I'm not arguing better or worse, just faster/slower because that's the only thing you mentioned.
Lucas doesn't have any projectiles in this match worth mentioning; using PK fire is a gamble (although it does have its uses) and PK Thunder is a good way to get gyro'd for 20%. Lucas' recovery, as per normal, is gimped to hell and back without the zap jump... and even with the zap jump he can have some serious issues.
PK fire is significantly faster to come out than the laser, which is easy to magnet on reaction. The only projectile ROB has against lucas is the top which, while not easy to neutralize, can be fsmashed on the ground, caught in the air, and otherwise shielded.
The top does wreck lucas's PKT recovery. Fact. The top has some good glide-toss applications. Fact. The top will not win it for rob by itself. Fact.
Lucas is just lackign slightly in many areas, and this means the match's flow is inevitably in ROB's favor. ROB doesn't have a problem killing lucas, nor does he have a problem hurting Lucas as all he has to do is powershield, shield, or dodge one attack and suddenly he's up in Lucas' grill and ROB has a myriad of options up close. This isn't unwinnable for Lucas, and I've played soem good Lucas' that really made me think, but in the end it all comes down to Lucas landing an f-smash or u-smash and killing ROB at low %. That is the only thing Lucas can do to win this. Other than that, it is jsut chipping away at each other... and ROB is better at that.
It's really nice when people go into really vague arguments like this because there's no way to argue against them. Specifics are nice. Saying stuff like how ROB can do a decent job of brickwalling lucas with jab, Dtilt, Ftilt, and Fair is a lot more concrete. I'll mention that nair stuff hurts rob decently here, and Dair is a decent mixup if you can space it w/o getting faired.
Lucas beats ROB by hitting him with moves until he's at a decent kill %, then using that f-smash to knock him out and not wasting time. The longer ROB is alive, the more damage Lucas takes. Lucas can kill ROB earlier than ROB can kill Lucas if Lucas can recover well.
True for ANY matchup that doesn't revolve around gimping in both directions.
Good luck winning with jab and f-tilt
Lucas' gameis limited because he has to play so careful. His f-smash is his best move in this matchup and you can't use it often.
His dsmash also dosen't punish spotdodges. Spot dodge to shield powershields it, allowing ROB to grab.
stupid auto PS.
I'd like frame data on your spot-dodge to verify that this is true. first hit on Dsmash is on frame 20, which makes it ideal for punishing spotdodges in most cases.