O.K, so I've been trying my darnedest to look into machups a little bit, but with the severe lack of Project M players in my area to practice with, I'm limited to the computers and my own little experimentation that at best can only give me a brief idea. So, and I ask this half out of curiosity and mostly in [albeit personal] preparation for an upcoming tournament, what does the Lucario-Marth matchup seem to be? I would attempt to start a machup thread if I could contribute more than theory-craft on the matter, but that's all I got. I'll just go ahead and post what I've observed and theorized so far.
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Lucario-Marth: 40-60, Marth's favor.
General
Overall, this feels like a pretty rough scrap for Lucario. Marth, without exception, has an overall range advantage over Lucario, and for the most part, all of Marth's attacks are sweeping motions, so there are very few blindspots one can stand in while he's attacking (spare the obvious). This means that approaches is likely to consist mostly of baiting commitment or CCing attacks. Additionally, I do believe Marth's fthrow CG applies to Lucario, so being grabbed early in a stock could most certainly lead to massive damage or the outright loss of it. Marth seems to have a larger dash dance and longer WD than Lucario, further exaggerating his spacial influence compared to Lucario.
Offense [Theory-craft]
Landing damage on Marth is going to be a very detrimental affair, as that requires getting in
real close, and thus entering deep into Marth's spacial influence. With that in mind, against a defensive, noncommittal Marth, having AS charged and using AS and BAS will help improve approach odds, especially since Lucario can almost catch up to both forms of AS. In the event that one vies for center stage, it should be rather easy to either pressure Marth into a gradual retreat (BAS and positional pressure) or an unsafe approach (AS or BAS at SH level. Utaunt once or twice.). Combos on Marth are going to get short quick, as he leans slightly towards the floaty side of the cast. Additionally, it seems that the best place to keep Marth is above and in front of Lucario, as this seems to be where Marth has the least coverage or offensive power, and should Marth manage to force a landing, attempting to stand right in front of his landing position seems to garnish the most options (Jab[>Jab]>tilt>ASC, dtilt, utilt, SH bair/nair, SH fair/dair>FP, Charlie Brown>DT, Grab). Lucario, if momentum is in his favor, should be able to choose where on the stage the encounters happen and bully Marth to these positions. With that in mind, good luck gaining momentum and then keeping it. Marth's wake-up choices (rolls, stand, attack), are fairly easy to react to, and his techs are what I would assume to be average, though it is likely that tech chases will not consist of more than one tech or wake-up.
I would be willing to say that, despite the edgeguard and gimp tools Lucario has, edgeguarding Marth is going to be a dangerous affair. Safe edgeguards will likely consist of AS at ledge height, dtilt or dair at stage height. Aggressive edgeguards are likely deep AS (if there is a wall to recover off of,
very deep), deep dair, far fair or nair, far and high bair or FP Fire, though most of these options, especially up high, are likely to trigger aerial responses, or in some cases a dair (though if Marth is in position for this why would ya go out there anyway?). On particularly powerful edgeguard is a deep FP, though results are either win or die, and an alternative, below ledge height FP, which yields safer results, even if failed or challenged.
Combos and juggles are going to consist mainly of attacks that keep Marth in his weakest position, and due to his traction and reach, ftilt will likely only come out of low percent DA or jab[2]. I would personally discourage using Usmash to it's final hit, as it is somewhat easy to DI out of, and can lead to a punish that will push Lucario well out of position. utilt>Fsmash>DT at lower percents will deal significant damage, position well for followups, likely lead into tech chases. Ending combos with a charged AS makes for a good chaser to any low height launches, and can enable one to take large amounts of space from Marth.
Aura Charges - Offense
Aura Bomb:
- Approach: AB or an AB wall can help pressure Marth into shield. Watch for reflect or counter (the latter of which hits like a monster off of Aura Bomb, if I am correct and it scales with attack strength). Sliding AB can also help close this gap, and works well off of platforms.
- Edgeguard: Placement general heights, hightest to lowest. FH RAB high(Slam Dunk), AB for stage height, SH RAB for just below ledge, SH AB for deep, Sliding RAB for very deep, Sliding Aura Bomb for whywouldyouevendothis (almost always requires walled stage to recover).
- Combos: It might work out of an early JC Usmash, but that JC>RAB has got to be super tight. SUPER TIGHT.
Force Blast: It's Force Palm. Use it like ya always do. Grounded kills at 110% with no DI. Will probably kill at 120% with perfect DI.
Double Team Cancel and Extreme Speed Cancel: I actually don't use these enough in an offensive fashion to give any advice on 'em. They seem kinda straight forward, really.
Defense [Theory-craft]
As mentioned before, if Lucario can gain momentum against Marth, he gets to pick where encounters take place. This however is not likely to happen, as due to Marth's reach and low end lag on L-Canceled aerials and most tilts (I believe utilt is a bit slow to wind down). Using AS, BAS, and threatening with dtilt will help break up or pressure approaches. CCing a committed aerial will yield a favorable position for both players, as Marth can easily follow up into a grab or tilt and Lucario can do what Lucario does, and powershielding will almost certainly put Lucario in a favorable position. However, entering shield in neutral due to Marth's pokes will almost certainly yield a grab or shield poke from dtilt. It is also important to note that his nair, bair, fair is shorter than Lucario's Fsmash, so a backwards WD>Fsmash on committed aerial approaches can yield either a hit or a hit on shield, both of which can be ASC. It is important to note that, while it will likely be difficult to enter into Marth's range safely, once there Lucario
must act almost immediately to capitalize on the situation, lest he be instead punished for the intrusion.
Positionally, the worst place to be when near Marth is going to be above and in front of him, due to his sweeping attacks and decent combo potential. Safer positioning is going to be well outside of Marth's spacial influence, though this may lead to situations in which Lucario is easily boxed out. Tech all the things, as Marth has several attacks that can initiate combos from a downed opponent, a notorious grab range, and two easily accessed jab resets (there is also one on the second swing of Sword Dance, but I doubt that'd be used).
On recovery, Marth has almost all the tools that Lucario has for edgeguarding. Hold onto the second jump as long as possible, and try to sweetspot the ledge at every chance when recovering low or at ledge height, as he has several moves that reach below the ledge, one of which is his lovely dair spike. Recovering high with DT, as passing through Marth may only merit a bair or dair from him that might put you onstage.
In terms of Aura Charges, the only real suggestion I could make would be to avoid being careless with use of charges on recovery. Using an Aura Bomb on return often makes for a good surprise and allows time to sweetspot the ledge unopposed if spaced correctly. Also, an ESC>air dodge makes for a good method of avoiding a dair spike at ledge height if a sweetspot is not possible.
Stage Selection [Theory-craft]
I'll confess that I am a bit poor when it comes to knowledge of stages and their effects on matchups. As a general rule, I would avoid stages with prominent platform coverage. Under this strategy, in neutral stage picks, aiming for Pokemon Stadium II, FD, and S-Ville are likely going to favor better for Lucario than the alternatives. Avoid Battlefield and Yoshi's Story, leaving the others to be second choice stages. In counterpick, stages like GHZ, FD, Castlevania, and Metal Cavern are more inclined to favor Lucario.
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That's all I got. If someone could pick this apart or add to it in any way, that'd be awesome. And heck, if folks know more about other matchups, discussing 'em would probably be rather enlightening.