I like your summary Phil.
Anyways now from the Link perspective.
Lucario vs Link.
Hey it's that chocolate loving pokemon that kind of replaced Mewtwo, Lucario. Kick it kick it Aura Power!!!
Anyways, lets get to the basics, Lucario is a character that uses aura to give himself more range on his attacks. Link will outrange him on most attacks, but Lucario has low ending lag and enough range to contend with Link. Lucario will also get buffs on his moves in terms of knockback, shieldstun, and damage.
First off projectiles, Lucario has an aura sphere, which is a little ball of energy that hurts you. He can charge if or not charge it and fire BAS, baby aura spheres. Links arrows will clash with BAS until Lucario gets to mid percentage, then they will outright beat them, Full charged aura spheres will beat arrows at any %. Gale Boomerang will beat BAS until mid to high percentage, Fully charged aura spheres will eat Link's boomerang at mid percentage. Bombs are awesome in contending with Aura sphere, they will clash with full charged ones, no matter what % Lucario is at. You could stand still and Link's shield will block the Aura sphere, but Link has better things he could be doing. Still nice to know this as an option Link can do.
Lucario can kill with Fsmash, Dair, and Aura sphere. Fortunately Link's Usmash if timed and spaced correctly will beat Lucario's Dair. Aura sphere can be handled with projectiles until higher % when you just spam bombs to stop it, but it's still threatening. Fsmash is scary, it may have some start up lag, but the ending lag is almost nonexistent. It's a good spacing tool, and kill move.
Link hould try to kill Lucario vertically, He has trouble with these kinds of kill moves. Dsmash, Utilit, can kill him earlier. Any other killer Link has can work, except Link's Dair which Lucario's Usmash outranges. Now here is a tid bit about killing Lucario, don't panic when he gets his Aura buff and kills with insane kill power, I've played people who have panicked with the Aura buff and started getting reckless in trying to kill me in fear of the buff, in the end it just help Lucario make openings in which he could kill easier. Don't panic and space accordingly.
Lucario is also known to be one of the few characters with true combos and strings. He does have them, this is bad for Link. Due to Link's falling speed and weight he is susceptible to Fair strings and juggling for quite a while. If Lucario is trying to CG you with his Force Palm, side B, mash out like any grab. You can do this while your under 30%, afterward he can do it. Fair>fair>Nair is a set up at low % Lucario can do on Link. Lucario is much better close up compared to Link despite Link having some range advantage, Lucario may share some start up lag problems like Link does but he doesn't have much if any ending lag on most attacks. Combine this with his range and it can get messy for Link. Link is better mid range with his projectiles forcing Lucario to approach.
Link is going to live longer than Lucario with good DI and momentum canceling, as long as he doesn't get gimped. Lucario can gimp Link in quite a few ways, Aura sphere can force Link to Airdodge and fail to recover, Fair chains off stage, Dair, Bair. He has a lot of ways to go about it and can go out pretty far to gimp Link.
The info below is copied and pasted from the Lucario boards when I did a write up over there, I just add a bit more info.
For stages, If I were Link I'd want to go to Norfair, Brinstar, or Final destination. Norfair is Link's best stage, it helps his camp game, makes it easier for him to get kills, and occasionally helps his bad recovery with lava, if I were to ban a stage against a Link I'd ban this one over the others. Final destination is recommended due to how it helps Link with his camping a bit more. Link does well on rainbow Cruise against some characters, most Lucario's hate that stage with a passion.
If I were Lucario I'd take Link to Frigate, he has a horrible recover, combine that with this stage and no grabbing on some sides and you get a very happy Lucario. Japes helps Link's camping a bit, but it helps Lucario more with the gimping he can do combined with the high ceiling. Yoshi's island is good for Lucario, but it also helps Link out. I'd ban Frigate against Lucario.
Due to Link's bad recovery and Lucario's abilty to juggle him I'd rate this, 60:40 Lucario.