@
TheCrimsonBlur
I’ll break this up anti-chronologically so that constant frame amounts come first and variable last.
Sheik’s fair hitbox comes out on frame 5 and has proper extension on frame 6, whereas your dair hitbox comes out on frame 6. After a dthrow, we can assume we won’t hit her until frame 8 or 9, when Marth swings his sword towards his backside. To be on the safe side, I will assume that we hit on frame 9. This makes our frame advantage be
−3.
Marth’s jumpsquat is 4 whereas Sheik’s double jump only takes 1 frame until she is actionable. This adds up to a total (dis)advantage of
−6.
Marth’s dthrow releases Sheik on frame 13 and ends on frame 38. (Credit goes to
Magus420)
Thus, dthrow has 25 frames of lag after Sheik is released. Added up to the subsequent frame disadvantage, we get
−31.
To make the dair connect before her fair can, we need to have her dthrow hitstun be more than this amount. At 0%, dthrow only has 30 frames hitstun, calculated with Strong Bad’s Excel sheet. We need to subtract another 2 frames because throw hitstun is counted in a weird way (maybe due to throws having no hitlag? I’m not sure). So the effective number we need to see in the Excel sheet is not 32, but 34.
The percentage we need is exactly
40. If we allow trades as well, it’s
30.
I tested these percentages and can confirm them. At 28%, only Sheik’s fair hit, and at 30%, it was a trade.
If Sheik DIs in and up, her fair will whiff, but she will only get hit by dair’s sourspot if you do a full backwards short hop. There are two solutions to this problem: the first is doing straight short hops on reaction (requires visual reaction times of about 10 frames on rather sublime position differences), the second is doing half-backward short hops by holding not fully behind, but in one of the 45° notches. This way, you catch both her DI-in-and-up and her no-DI fair attempts with a sweetspot dair.
The reaction window to check for DI away (in this case, I recommend taking the ledge instead as putting yourself above her with a whiffed dair is really bad) is 10 frames as well. Or 14, if you are able to react during jumpsquat and do a wavedash instead of a jump. 10 frames is doable, but by no means easy as the visual triggers are so subtle.
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Summary: Safe when Sheik has at least 30% before she is dthrown
and you can tell on reaction that she does not DI away. Expect a trade unless she has at least 40%.
During the short hop jumpsquat, hold either in the upper or the lower 45° octagon notch to get a slight backward short hop. Holding slightly, but straight back works too, but it’s less reliable.
Edit: It seems full jump dair is even better – it catches both DI options as well and never gets you hit. Have some pictures:
Left side: no DI, right side: DI in and up (135°)
Upper row: short hop, lower row: full jump
This is the earliest percentage where this is absolutely guaranteed. Because full jump positions you above Sheik, you will hit her on frame 8 of your dair, before her fair can hit you.
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