I feel this is going to be the best way for me to get my thoughts all fleshed out and to also look at the game from a different perspective. The only person I will be leaving out of this is Maven. I may even talk about the hypothetical as if what I would do if I was scum because that may help me understand the enemy a bit more by looking at it that way by getting into their shoes. This is also where my PoE comes into play which
Orbo
Hmm, now the thing about my strongest scum-read is that he seems to have no long-term agenda. He's a very present day player and does not seem to be thinking about who is going to be lynched in the long run. If he is thinking about it, then it has not been present in the thread. Everything about Orbo seems very bandwagony and just going with the flow of "Yeah, I'd lynch them." as long as their name is not Ditzy. Unless Orbo is banking on the LyLo situation of being in against someone with Ditzy being able to back him because the two seem to reach other well and he feels he can manipulate Ditzy for the win, then Orbo is kind of just sitting here with a meh PoV. What is Orbo's scum agenda? Is it to float under the radar and just get the W by just being here enough to not detect much suspicion and win that way? The more I keep on thinking about OrboScum the more it does not make a whole lot of sense to me. On the exterior, he looks scummy. On the interior, he doesn't. This is very strange because I have not really been looking at it this way and mainly just looking at what his actions present besides the mentality behind as to why. The more I look at Orbo the more I am not really seeing scum and actually just looking at things from a perspective of "Maybe this guy is just town that has been in a rut of not doing much of anything significant?" I am just scratching my head because my gut tells me this slot is the one that I should be honing in on and the one that I really think I need to be lynching, however, I am actually less sold on it the more I talk to myself about it.
There is nothing I can really say for a long-term agenda because when looking at the game from this point, the other two have much more of a stronger PoV for long-term than Orbo. That isn't to say Orbo can't just be lazy scum and I am over-thinking the hell out of everything, but this is a good new train of thought to express.
Delly
When thinking of Delly, most of what I can say about him is that he is abrasive and not really being 100% honest when looking at his posts. I feel that there is something that he is trying to play at throughout the game and the fact is, he is playing with an agenda. I go back and forth as to whether I find it a towny or a scummy agenda because both sides have their points. One could look at Delly and see that he is trying to find scum and also trying to look at the game from a different perspective. However, his views are pretty outlandish and also just not as strong when retorted by other players. I have a very strong out of game reason as to why I am scratching my head at this slot because he should be reading much more townier. The reason I am scratching my head is because I am sold the slot is actually a veteran in disguise for whatever reason and is trying to play with that. However, he decided to play under a guise and honestly that is not my place to rip the metaphorical mask off of his slot unless I feel it I cannot explain his actions without meta and I think I am a decent enough player to not have to do that and just look at this slot from a logistical standpoint.
Delly came into the game with an agenda and with a point that he wanted us to realize. That much cannot be dissuade from logic because it is very black and white. Delly wanted us all to stop looking at Ditzy as town which a lot of us had just written off as almost easier then either of the claims that have been given to us because of Ditzy's influence and his posts in the game. I find myself nodding along with a lot of what Delly has to say, but I am not convinced either. It's a very weird situation where it looks like it has good intent, but also smells of bad intent at the same time. What does Delly gain from coming in gung-ho with a metaphorical "*****-slap" to the game and wanting us to lynch Ditzy and throw that awry. At the time of his arrival we had already had Maven claim and he came in saying that the tracker claim situation made Ditzy look scummy. I disagree with this point of action because I found it actually from a more towny perspective. Although Ditzy brought it up, lemme reiterate a point I found incredibly strong in the Ditzy Defense.
We had 5 people left in this game. We had 1 PR left and 1 scum left, that is known by the set-up with 3 outliers of VT.
Ditzy comes in and tells us to have the Tracker claim. The tracker is a very powerful role at this juncture because they could have a clear and could also have a condemn.
1 Tracker
1 Clear
3 remainders (1:2 odds of scum:town)
Option A: That means that toDay would have been between 3 names and if Ditzy is town and was not tracked, that makes it a 50/50 shot which I can see the town logic behind that because Maven will flip toNight and then if we had it wrong toDay, Ditzy could make the final play between the clear and the remainder as long as he can convince the clear that he is town.
Option B: However, inversely, this could also have been Ditzy's plan as scum. Ditzy was the lowest priority on the Tracking list and I honestly can see DitzyScum taking the gamble and calling for the claim because he could look at the thread and be able to muscle his way to lynching whoever the other person was without much of a qualm because everyone at the time thought he to be Mr. Brownie Townie.
The situation turned out to be neither and is actually looking like this:
1 Tracker (Maven)
4 remainders (1:3 odds of scum:town)
I feel like Delly is looking at the situation from the PoV of option B where Ditzy was scum and knew he could get away with the logic that. That is a way of thinking about the situation I have not really looked at in detail till now and I am actually seeing that as a possibility especially if I am becoming uneasy about Orbo. Ditzy could be playing a really good game as scum and have the puzzle for his W in the bag at this point and looking from a betting standpoint, Ditzy has the highest ratio of success regardless of his alignment based on popular opinion.
Now Delly's long-term (since I am still on him a bit here), considering he is scum, is to come in and throw off the credit Ditzy has acheived which has failed honestly from that PoV, at the moment. Orbo and Maven both still hold Ditzy as their highest town read, and I have been on that side too as well. So what does Delly gain from toDay that helps him win the game as scum? Delly could be throwing up a bluster of stuff to get people to re-consider Ditzy in the LyLo because if Delly wants to win in a LyLo that consists of the remainder of Orbo/J then he has to use toDay to discredit Ditzy. That could be his plan to not use toDay to actually lynch Ditzy, but to actually just get enough points and enough point of doubt towards that slot that toMorrow could hold a fighting chance. However, on the off-side that DellyScum would be able to succeed in getting a Ditzy lynch toDay, then he would have a much higher chance of success by being able to have a much more convuluted LyLo with Delly/J/Orbo being the final three. Orbo has been waffling on Delly/J for a while. I have been pretty vehement on Orbo dying and Delly would actually be sitting very pretty at this point in time because he could go either way. So regardless of what happens toDay, Delly could honestly be setting himself up to look good for a LyLo on whatever happens in the long-term.
So I guess the question I am going to be looking into is that if Delly's push on Ditzy looks more like an attempt to discredit someone who is seen as towny or if Delly actually does think Ditzy is the final scum and is pushing. For Delly, it will honestly come down to intent and if we did end up lynching Ditzy toDay and he were to flip town, I would probably be gunning for Delly because I do not think I would believe Orbo is scummier then Delly. But that would also have to merit if I decided whether Delly's intent was one of the prior situations. (Scum intent vs. Town intent) At the moment, I am at a wash with trying to decide where I go with Delly because I need to research that slot more and comb over his posts more than just read/analyze from there. They need to be digested a bit more strongly the third time around.
Another thing I would like to bring up regarding this slot is that Koopy was a bit interesting at the time of the Kaladin lynch. This is something Delly cannot really explain and I apologize for that, but replacement status is like that sometimes. Koopy was the only one not voting anyone at the end of yesterDay. He had not placed his vote on Maven and he had not placed his vote on Kaladin either. The strange part though is that Koopy came in directly after my hammer to say "Aw rats guys, seems I just missed the chance to hammer that scummer." which, when looking at Delly's slot from the PoV of him being scum, could be attributed to the fact that Koopy saw the option of letting a NL slip by continuing the game from there. My memory is foggy as to who was online at the time because I was posting from my phone, but all I knew for certain is that Ditzy was here as well *cuz he was posting* and then Koopy comes out of nowhere from not posting at all to being here at the final few minutes of the day? That action is actually making me scratch my head more and more as to why Koopy decided to post that post of being here but not being able to vote. From the scum-agenda standpoint, it would make sense for Koopy to withhold his vote until that point especially if Kaladin/Koopy were banking on a NL to then move the game forward with the odds on their side starting D2. I wish the slot hadn't been replaced solely so I could ask more on this question, but this is more of an "extras" tangent that no one can respond to and I'm just thinking about it since it struck a chord with my during my second re-read of the game.
Ditzy
I have already covered a bit of this in the Delly section, but if Ditzy was scum he has the best ratio of success for winning in the end-game. His agenda would be simple yet sinister at the same time. He would just let toDay go on and lynch whoever town would want because no one has been looking at him, gain some townie points for calling for the tracker (which happened), and the just lynch whoever was the remainder in the final 3 with Maven gone. The only thing Ditzy could not have accounted for was the replacement of Koopy and Delly coming into the game with a full blown case at him and swinging at him. Ditzy was the 2nd or 3rd vote onto Kaladin which is usually where scum-mates tend to lie in vote analysis. Usually the ratio of scum-members hammering or being the first to vote their partner in a game of this size and this small is really low. Ditzy had been pushing Soup and could have gotten his lynch if Soup was not the PR at the time and had to re-evaluate his standpoints. I need to go re-look at something if Ditzy was the one to whisper into Soup's ear to use his Jailer ability to try and stop scum because here is the thing.
If Ditzy was to be jailed last night, as scum, then there would be No Kill last night which means that Ditzy would have been condemned as scum instantaneously because there is 0 logic to keeping the Jailer alive in an open set-up game. So if Soup was influenced to use his ability to try and stop scum>protect town, that may be an interesting thing against Ditzy. However, it would make logical sense for the Jailer to look for scum and try and block them with their NK especially with Kaladin flipping scum because that would be the higher rate of success of action knowing that he would definitely die. So I actually doubt much would come from investigating whether or not Soup was influenced about his actions, but I do want to still have a double check on that.
Now, back from the situation of long-term goal. Ditzy would use the fact that he is seen as more town regardless of the tracker situation because it is highly unlikely that Maven would have tracked him in any situation or parrellel "what if" situation so Ditzy could use the game toDay to just be doing whatever town wants. Honestly, when looking from the game at a DitzyScum angle, Ditzy has not been doing much until he had to defend himself from Delly, but here is the thing that I kind of want to highlight to Orbo/Maven.
All 3 of us have been looking at Ditzy in a somewhat rose-colored glasses lens that Ditzy's defense may look better to us then the original attack regardless of his reponses because Ditzy has been seen to us as the most towny of us all. I am going to be re-looking at the defense and see if that stays true 100% because I am feeling I am finally looking at this game with a different outlook where I had thought toDay was just Orbo vs. Delly and I lean heavily on Orbo, but I am beginning to realize that Ditzy is not clear, not proven as town, and a lot of my feelings regarding him have been based on feels and general vibes. There are 3 people, in my eyes, viable for the lynch toDay and I gotta stop thinking in this "It's one or the other!" because that allows DitzyScum to skate away with the victory due to an oversight of re-going over all the facts and becoming tunnel-headed.
Long-term wise, Ditzy has the easiest plan of action where as Delly would have to work much harder. I need to see if Ditzy has been doing town-driven actions or what seems to be the easiest way to set-up his slam-dunk LyLo situation. Basically it goes to if he actually seems to be looking for scum or trying to present logic as to why everyone else is scummier than he is.
So I will say this in closing, I have a new way of looking at the game and I am actually incredibly grateful that there is no deadline because it gives me the chance to look at some more questions that I have to research and determine how I feel regarding the situation at hand. I do not feel as comfortable as I had on my OrboScum read and I am actually looking at the Delly v. Ditzy situation with a bit more of a tilted head. I am happy that those two decided to fight each other because I may be able to find something in there that helps solve the game and also give me more insight.
Maven89
: Hi. I get you don't like me this game and that's fine. However, I would ask you to talk with me a bit more because you are the only one I have as town and would like to talk with you about the game through my eyes and perspective of Delly/Ditzy/Orbo having the remaining scum. I'm sorry I'm not town to you and that is a majority my fault, but it's shared blame too. I need a soundboard I can trust to be able to truly figure out this game and since it is your last Day Phase in the game I would really appreciate being able to discuss this theory I have presented on long-term agenda and who fits as scum. Honestly, I am stuck between looking at Delly vs. Ditzy before I re-read some things and answer some of my own questions. If the final scum is between that argument, who do you lean as being the final scum? I don't want just a "Lynch Delly." answer because I feel that is what you would give me, but more of a re-look at both sides and where you lay on that.
Unvote
I feel misplaced if my vote is out on any of the three slots at the moment since I have convinced myself out of just straight gunning at Orbo and actually just looking at the big picture here rather then exactly what is in front of me. I'll be around, but I am going to be mainly focusing on looking at the game and trying to answer my own questions. It may not be quick due to it being finals week and I am trying to stay afloat in that category, but if ya'll are willing to wait a bit in turn for my answers I can give a more detailed response which helps me not make simple errors that can be avoided. However, I am a little tired after all of that mental processing and typing so I am going to take a bit of a break from mafia, but there's that.
