Try not to use QD on the ground unless you are chasing your target from a roll and you know it will connect. Otherwise a good opponent will capitalize on your ending lag. Dash grabs and dash attacks tend to be more healthy. Using Quick Draw as a mixup is nice, but your QD didn't have any chance of connecting when you fired it. The read was pretty hard, but luckily your opponent didn't catch on to capitalize with a FFing b-air.
Other than that, don't forget to use your d-tilt. It comes out fast, has almost the same range as f-tilt and sets up into lovely combos until higher %. F-tilt can be dangerous to use due to its startup frames (it's faster than it used to be, but still isn't as foolproof as d-tilt), so I recommend keeping f-tilt for soft reads and attacks at max spacing.
And you'll want to practice using that c-stick more. I know you say you prefer to avoid it, but it makes it much easier to get accurate tilt results. There was a point where you spammed f-tilt and u-tilt when your opponent wasn't near you, which I'm guessing it was you were having a hard time getting the character to turn around (whether it was due to controls or lag.) F-tilt is very easy to control it's direction without accidentally performing a dash attack with just basic attack c-stick configuration, and a turn around grab/u-tilt/d-tilt can be performed with tap-jump off by using the the high diagonals on the control stick. (Aim for about 10 or 2 o' clock on the stick respectively for a good range.) Learning the upper angles can help even if you don't use the c-stick, since it will allow you to perform turnaround u-tilt (or d-tilt if you aim for 7 and 5 o clock respectively). That has helped me in the past.
You have a similar bad habit I do, which is using rolls way too much for positioning. It's not excessive, but you end up finding yourself in the same position you were in when you initiated the roll since your opponent did the same thing. A few retreating short hops would have allowed you to either b-air or n-air your opponent while they are helpless. Practice working in more retreating short hops into your game, as rolling like that can be really detrimental against opponents that have great dash options. (It's a habit you don't want when fighting speedsters like Cap or Sonic.)
All the FE characters share a similar weakness with their recoveries, and that is their sharking. It normally is a good thing, but Ike's Counter works wonders in most situations with this as only the deepest of recoveries are prevented from our wrath. If the angle is off to use Counter, then walk-off aerials can work for you.(or if you have the guts, a d-air spike! That walk off Counter at the end was a good call.) Don't forget to work some grabs in. Your opponent was catching on to your jab tactics, and one good grab would have helped reduce the number of counters used on you.
