The only way i see us beating a good TL like mjg is to CG him even with the bomb in his hand and just throw TL away when its going to explode. if it drops while you CG then your out of luck
The issue is that if the TL is doing what he should be doing, you won't be grabbing him any time soon. Based on my observations of mjg's gameplay, he trys to always be holding a bomb when the IC's are close and he's out of jumps. At which point he does a read on spacing where if there are medium distance, he chucks the bomb; closer range he does an airdodge Gair/hookshot while holding the bomb; or an iBomb if you're literally on top of him.
I've been doing some thinking lately and I really think we need to reconstruct our character flow chart for this specific matchup.
Assuming FD's been banned-
I'd divide the match up into two modes of play: When TL is zoned vertical/above you and when TL is zoned horizontally.
I would think in terms of horizontal play, our best would be to just PS everything. Easier said than done, but based on that bomb read scenario I outlined earlier, we really don't have any good options assuming they space everything well. I would think we need to just walk shield everything and either hope they misspace a Gair for a grab or force them to go into the vertical zoning scenario.
When vertically zoned, I think we need to use the platforms. Obviously they're going to try to bomb us, but hopefully the level you're on has platforms where you can just sit underneath and let bombs explode. Don't attempt to go up and Uair chase him when he's holding a bomb; that's just asking to get iBombed, seperated, and beaten. We need to figure out a way to create the situation where there is vertical zoning and they don't have a bomb in hand. I think the best method to do that would be a zoning read of our own, where we go aerial underneat the TL using our SH/FH, and then wait until they make a move with the bomb. Assuming they do make said action with bomb, your first instinct should be to air dodge rather than Uair. Once the bomb is gone, you should be free to get one uair in, using your double jump to control spacing. If they hold onto the bomb, you're at an advantageous position by falling with them, because you're closer to their landing spot where their projectiles/gair won't save them, and they'll be forced to eat a bomb or get punished heavily.
Notice, that none of the options here require nana, so while losing her does make things more difficult, it would only affect the recovery and punishing power aspects of the game outside of getting a grab for cg. So even when forced to go SoPo, it might not be a completely lost cause.
It would take a lot of discipline on our parts to play the matchup in this manner, (probably more than I currently have). We'd have to go from thinking of things in terms of 3 stocks, to games of percents. But it might be a viable solution for some of us that isn't "Pick up a secondary"
