How can we predict reveals?

[APC99]

Well, this is contradictory. Could a mod possibly merge my thread with this already-existent one? I've got lists, release dates and such in it already.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Thats probably true

Well its time to see if sakurai puts R.O.B on the site tomorrow for the usa nes anniversary (since luigi got confirmed for usa release of mario bros dream team)

And not to mention the friday pictures are always the most interesting

 

[AEMehr]

Clearly, game releases don't just have to affect the character roster. Advertising can be done by different methods, items being one of them.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Xernas is not a character for those playing at home its a hint of pokeball item or a pokemon stage

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

So uh... the banner has been down for awhile, and still no character. WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN!?!?!?

Anyway, I think it's fair to say we won't be getting a character anytime soon, because I think Sakurai made the nod to the games with Xerneas being in todays update.

The only way I believe we can truly predict (predict =/= 100% without a doubt know) when a character will be revealed is by release dates and anniversaries. Therefore, I believe we need a very specific and detailed chart that points out these dates. That way we will have a general idea of who to expect, when to expect them, and why.

On the other hand, I'm almost positive that Newcomers (save for Mewtwo because I now view him as a veteran) will all be revealed through important events that include trailers. So that would mean Nintendo Directs, events like E3, etc...

Another key piece of info would be to document when Nintendo Directs are set to happen in the first place, and knowing what is going to be discussed within it. In the last few, Luigi was revealed with Mario and Luigi: Dream Team, and Sonic with Sonic Lost World. This likely won't apply to every character (see Pokemon), but it's possible. Because it is possible, it is worth researching.

For example, Nintendo will likely have a Nintendo Direct focusing on 2014 releases. Smash Bros is one of them, so I can almost guarantee we're going to see some new characters and or veterans that day.

 

[BluePikmin11]

There needs to be a Smash direct soon, either next week or the following week to reveal Little Mac, Pac-Man, and Mii.

 

[MattX20]

I have this feeling that tells me that if we do end up getting a newcomer reveal in December, it will probably turn out to be Palutena to coincide with the 27th anniversary of the original Kid Icarus' release on the Famicom.

 

[Kon]

Well, at least we got a small Pokemon X/Y hint for friday.

I read on german videogame-websites that Aonuma may give first details about Legend of Zelda WiiU before the E3 2014. Maybe we will get a Nintendo Direct soon with a first trailer to get a first impression and if so, it would also be possible that they reveal Zelda or Ganondorf for SSB4. Is just a point I wanted to make.

 

[jaytalks]

There needs to be a Smash direct soon, either next week or the following week to reveal Little Mac, Pac-Man, and Mii.

no it doesn't make sense to waste the hype that those reveals would bring a year before the game release. I would expect those (if they were to happen) at next year's E3.

 

[yoonb]

no it doesn't make sense to waste the hype that those reveals would bring a year before the game release. I would expect those (if they were to happen) at next year's E3.

Yeah, definitely this. I think the reason for so many obvious character reveals (besides Toon Link and maybe Sonic) is because they don't want to hype the game up this early or it wouldn't be as hyped as it could be by release.

The only intriguing thing I've noticed about them is how Sakurai uses them to troll us to oblivion. If he plays his cards right, I believe he can bring more hype than he did to Brawl.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Yeah, definitely this. I think the reason for so many obvious character reveals (besides Toon Link and maybe Sonic) is because they don't want to hype the game up this early or it wouldn't be as hyped as it could be by release.

The only intriguing thing I've noticed about them is how Sakurai uses them to troll us to oblivion. If he plays his cards right, I believe he can bring more hype than he did to Brawl.

Basically, I could see a newcomer or two being revealed in the December Direct. It will cap off the year with four newcomers, and a fairly good amount of characters revealed overall. If we have 12 more months of reveals, with several with two characters, we're bound to see at least 20+ before release.

On a side note, as I mentioned in the Discussion Thread, we haven't seen anything in awhile. No stages or characters for about 3 weeks now. We have to be getting something soon. I don't know that the banner really means anything at this point either.

Really at this point, Ike and Snake would generate the most hype for me anyway. I just want a reveal lol.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Basically, I could see a newcomer or two being revealed in the December Direct. It will cap off the year with four newcomers, and a fairly good amount of characters revealed overall. If we have 12 more months of reveals, with several with two characters, we're bound to see at least 20+ before release.

On a side note, as I mentioned in the Discussion Thread, we haven't seen anything in awhile. No stages or characters for about 3 weeks now. We have to be getting something soon. I don't know that the banner really means anything at this point either.

Really at this point, Ike and Snake would generate the most hype for me anyway. I just want a reveal lol.

We had a stage reveal last monday, the NSMB one with the rotating platforms for the 3DS. Unless that was a picture for a scrolling stage we've already seen.

I think we're getting newcomers in January. This year they had some pretty good announcements in a January Direct, WWHD, and since it'll be the year of Smash's release, plus it'd be the halfway point between E3 2013 and E3 2014, it'd be a good time to reveal some characters. Plus, there's nothing that really happens in January, where as they can always reveal Zelda for the Japan release of A Link Between Worlds in December and Diddy Kong in February. With a big chance of new game announcements in January, it'd also be good to time it with if say a new Metroid is announced, or maybe something to do with Fire Emblem happens.

I'm not expecting a newcomer earlier than that, and if a January Direct passes without that, I'm just going to wait for E3.

And yeah, I'm dying to see if Ike and Snake are in too. Ike being one of my mains, and Snake just being too damn fun to play. I don't really have too many doubts about Snake, but Ike might be on the edge I think.

 

[AnOkayDM]

We had a stage reveal last monday, the NSMB one with the rotating platforms for the 3DS. Unless that was a picture for a scrolling stage we've already seen.

Pretty sure that was the Mario stage revealed in the E3 trailer.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

We had a stage reveal last monday, the NSMB one with the rotating platforms for the 3DS. Unless that was a picture for a scrolling stage we've already seen.

I think we're getting newcomers in January. This year they had some pretty good announcements in a January Direct, WWHD, and since it'll be the year of Smash's release, plus it'd be the halfway point between E3 2013 and E3 2014, it'd be a good time to reveal some characters. Plus, there's nothing that really happens in January, where as they can always reveal Zelda for the Japan release of A Link Between Worlds in December and Diddy Kong in February. With a big chance of new game announcements in January, it'd also be good to time it with if say a new Metroid is announced, or maybe something to do with Fire Emblem happens.

I'm not expecting a newcomer earlier than that, and if a January Direct passes without that, I'm just going to wait for E3.

And yeah, I'm dying to see if Ike and Snake are in too. Ike being one of my mains, and Snake just being too damn fun to play. I don't really have too many doubts about Snake, but Ike might be on the edge I think.

Herp Derp. I totally forgot about that stage reveal. However I want a pretty looking Wii U one.

Snake will be back I think. The only arguments I've seen against him are that 1) He doesn't fit the style (yes he does, he's goofy as ****) 2) Relationship with Konami isn't the same (it wasn't the relationship with Konami in the first place. It was Sakurai and Kojima.) and 3) MGS 5 is out soon, and why would they advertise that? (uhhh...same as MGS 4. Derp)

Ike is a character I really like to play as and hope that they don't cut. He's a great character both in and out of Smash. I'd like to see Chrom, but not as a replacement of Ike in any case.

I think an E3 reveal will happen, however I think we'll see a trailer in a direct before then. Depending on what we see at E3, I think it will effect who we see at E3. At least I think it'd be cool. Like they announce a new Metroid, something on SMTXFE and X, then reveal Ridley, Chrom, and Shulk in a trailer. I just think that would be badass.

 

[Kon]

I don't think it depends on what we see at E3 to predict who will be revealed at E3 2014. I'm pretty sure we will get newcomers at E3 2014, because it is the place to show newcomer trailers. Veterans will be revealed before and after the next E3. I don't think they will miss the opportunity to reveal newcomers at an event that is worldwide known (at least in videogame communities) by revealing veterans instead.

We know that Zelda U will be shown at E3, but I guess they will reveal at least one of the LoZ character before as Aonuma is considering to show first pictures of Zelda U already before the E3. In this context, a Nintendo Direct is very likely and if they show Zelda U, I'm pretty sure they will also reveal another Zelda veteran.

@Scoliosis Jones
Shulk hasn't really something to do with X except that it is the same studio working on this title. It's like you would say: DKC: Tropical Freeze will be shown, so they can reveal a Metroid character because Retrostudios. Same goes for a Fire Emblem game we don't even know if Chrom will be important in some way and already see a link to a reveal of Chrom at E3 2014. I think you go a way to far.
Btw: I don't think we will see a new Metroid game at next E3. I can't imagine that.

Of course Sakurai could reveal Chrom as we already expect a new Fire Emblem character. Of course he could reveal Ridley in order to let the Ridley fans get hyped even more for SSB4. And of course, Shulk could be confirmed at E3 2014, but my point is that you shouldn't look too much for a link between the games they will show there and the newcomers that will be shown there because I think it doesn't work like that.

Sakurai is unpredictable speaking of character reveals. Perhaps we can say when he probably will reveal a character but the question who will still stay without any clear answer as Sakurai always gets us with surprises.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Btw: I don't think we will see a new Metroid game at next E3. I can't imagine that.

Miyamoto has said that Metroid is in the hands of Retro, and he thinks the company can multitask in order to deliver multiple games at once by now. And we all know that when Miyamoto speaks like that, things are happening, see A Link to the Past sequel for example.

Plus, Sakamoto still has the leftovers of Metroid Dread if anything.

 

[Kon]

Miyamoto has said that Metroid is in the hands of Retro, and he thinks the company can multitask in order to deliver multiple games at once by now. And we all know that when Miyamoto speaks like that, things are happening, see A Link to the Past sequel for example.

Plus, Sakamoto still has the leftovers of Metroid Dread if anything.

And Retrostudios denied a second game they could possibly work on. Retrostudios said they are focused on DKC: Tropical Freeze and have no plans for another Metroid game yet. I don't say we won't get a Metroid game at anytime, but I think it's unlikely that a Retrostudios Metroid is coming next E3.

Btw: I cross fingers for a tomorrow reveal of a veteran as we haven't got any character this month. Otherwise we could still perhaps get a new veteran at the beginning of next week.

 

[DrMcNugget]

With all four mario characters revealed I think we might see a mario series newcomer when Super Mario 3D World gets released.

 

[DrMcNugget]

oops.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Btw: I cross fingers for a tomorrow reveal of a veteran as we haven't got any character this mount. Otherwise we could still perhaps get a new veteran at the beginning of next week.

Well, Sonic was technically revealed in October. I figured we'd get a long break after 3 character reveals in such a short time. It'd be pretty random with a character reveal tommorow or next week, but yeah, it's Sakurai.

 

[Negalith]

I'm up for Chrom replacing Marth and Marth becoming the new Roy/Ike, or vice-versa. I would really like to see Captain Falcon officially confirmed, and I'd like for them to put Mewtwo back in. His Final Smash could be Mega Mewtwo. As far as new guys, Wonder Red would be awesome!

 

[Negalith]

I'd also be up for any of the new wonderful 101....except the toilet dude.....

 

[FinalStarmen]

I'm up for Chrom replacing Marth and Marth becoming the new Roy/Ike, or vice-versa. I would really like to see Captain Falcon officially confirmed, and I'd like for them to put Mewtwo back in. His Final Smash could be Mega Mewtwo. As far as new guys, Wonder Red would be awesome!

I'm up for Chrom replacing Marth and Marth becoming the new Roy/Ike, or vice-versa.

I'm up for Chrom replacing Marth

Replace the popular representational mascot of the entire respective Fire Emblem series (with appearances spanning multiple games, as well as importance to several story-line plots)... for a recently introduced descendant lord from the latest Fire Emblem iteration?

Why? Honestly, just why? Why is this so consistently desired?



Also, welcome to Smashboards.

 

[Negalith]

I'm not saying heartlessly rip Marth out. I'm saying implement Chrom and use Marth's new look for Marth lol. Marth is as much a smash icon as Mario or Falcon. I would never suggest taking him out of the game haphazardly.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

So unless there is a character revealed next week (which is still possible), we will have gone without another character since the first of the month. If we don't get somebody this next week, then it is almost guaranteed we see somebody the next week.

What are some important dates for November? Something with F-Zero, and A Link Between Worlds right?

Anything else?

 

[Pazzo.]

So unless there is a character revealed next week (which is still possible), we will have gone without another character since the first of the month. If we don't get somebody this next week, then it is almost guaranteed we see somebody the next week.

What are some important dates for November? Something with F-Zero, and A Link Between Worlds right?

Anything else?

Hmm... I'd say Nov. and Dec. are ripe for reveals too. Maybe Zelda, then Palutena for Dec?

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Well, Sonic was technically revealed in October. I figured we'd get a long break after 3 character reveals in such a short time. It'd be pretty random with a character reveal tommorow or next week, but yeah, it's Sakurai.

Maybe tuesday for the tomorrow day don't forget the pac man game comes out the 29th
But if no character this week definatly someone next month

The 21st could be a newcomer after a while and thats little mac (punch out nes anniversary japan) but the zelda game could ruin this theory because one day before a link between worlds comes out but zelda could be revealed early just like sonic

 

[Kon]

With all four mario characters revealed I think we might see a mario series newcomer when Super Mario 3D World gets released.

Honestly I don't see this coming. We have 4 Super Mario characters, 2 Legend of Zelda characters and all the other already shown franchises only count 1 character at the moment. So I think it's more likely we will get a 3rd LoZ character or a 2nd character from another franchise than a reveal of a newcomer for the franchise that is until now the franchise with most revealed characters by far.

I would also be excited to see a veteran from a franchise that hasn't been confirmed yet for SSB4 such as F-Zero, Fire Emblem, Earthbound/Mother, (WarioWare) or the retro characters.

btw: Sakurai is watching this thread, I'm pretty sure. He noticed we got a certain time period where we really expect a character reveal and to punish us, he hasn't revealed any veteran since the reveal of Sonic on October 1st. As if he wanted to say: "I'm totally unpredictable, so forget about trying to predict when there will be another character reveal" xD

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

As I've said in other threads, my belief is that we're getting a trailer in the direct next month. Let's do some speculating on some important or notable dates.

As I pointed out in the Roster Prediction Discussion Thread, it's entirely possible that we don't see Pac, Mac, or Miis. Villager, Mega Man, and Wii Fit Trainer all were seperate from one another, so I don't think it's a stretch if we only see one of them.

But really. Will the trailer only feature revealed veterans? or will they surprise us with a few of them? If we get new characters, who will they be?

 

[AnOkayDM]

Think we'll get an ND this month? For ALBW and SM3DL or something?

 

[Glaciacott]

So ... Marth is back and it's even clearer that there's really no pattern.

Woo!

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Sakurai read my thread.

Puts all my work to waste...

*sobs*

 

[Glaciacott]

*sobs*

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Yeah. I updated the thread with a new point.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

I'm a bit more iffy on a Zelda reveal soon now, but I'm not going to fully doubt it. I'm at least glad this will put Marth naysayers in their place.

 

[Zhadgon]

I predict Wario is the next one.
.n_n.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I wouldn't be too quick to rule out Zelda yet.

(Watch that banner).

 

[Zhadgon]

I wouldn't be too quick to rule out Zelda yet.

(Watch that banner).

You know who is reading this right now.

Spoiler

Spoiler

.n_n.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

You know who is reading this right now.

Spoiler

Spoiler

.n_n.

Let him read!

I'm onto you Sakurai!

I'll write that book about your psyche before the game is released!

 

[Kon]

7. Sometimes, nothing matters! It's Sakurai, he does stuff when he wants!

Yeah. Marth's reveal proved that sometimes, he just feels like doing his own thing. He even used Marth to advertise Awakening. It's Sakurai after all. We need to remember that any possible pattern can be thrown out at any possible time. Then again, he may go back to it as well. We'll have to see.

If anything works, consider point 7. Nice one, it's true. Sakurai is able to put everything upside down and reveal someone we haven't expected this month to be revealed.

Still I guess Zelda is the most likely next reveal to push A Link Between Worlds. Another Mario character is pretty unlikely as we've already seen 4 Super Mario characters.

In the December Direct we could see a newcomer as some sort of highlight for the end of this year. Would be really great if so. I also expect 1-2 newcomers to be revealed at E3 2014. Maybe about 2-3 newcomers that would still left hidden until the release so we could expect around 8-9 newcomers. I guess this would a number of newcomer I could agree with.

With the reveal of Marth, the return of the Fire Emblem franchise is confirmed.

Until now, they never kicked a franchise from SSB: All the franchises from SSB64 returned in Melee, all the franchises from Melee returned in Brawl.(I count Dr.Mario to the Super Mario series)

The franchises from Brawl that still have to be confirmed for SSB4 are: F-Zero, Earthbound/Mother, WarioWare and the Yoshi series. I guess these franchises will only feature one representant, except for Earthbound/Mother where I could imagine the return of Lucas.
That said we could perhaps look for dates when Captain Falcon could be confirmed on November 21st.(the release date of the first F-Zero game for SNES in Japan about 23 years ago) It would be close to the reveal of Marth but still there would be 2 weeks between both reveals. The only point that makes the reveal at that time unlikely is the release of the 3DS Zelda game which could be supported by the reveal of Zelda for SSB4(or Ganondorf)
July 18th for the reveal of Ness would fit because Mother 2/Earthbound was released in the WiiU Virtuale Console worldwide at that date in 2013.
March 21st the first WarioWare game was released in Japan, so it would be a good occasion to reveal Wario.
Yoshi however could be revealed right before the release of Yoshi's New Island for 3DS.