How can we predict reveals?

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Theorycrafting time:
Fact: There are 17 characters revealed so far.
Fact: Brawl had 37 characters (according to the Dojo, which treated ZSS and Sheik as separate characters, but Pokemon Trainer as a single character).
Assumption: SSB4 will have at least as many characters as Brawl, and likely more.
Assumption: Toon Link will be an unlockable character.

Based on Toon Link's early reveal, it seems like Sakurai has no qualms this time about revealing unlockable veterans prior to release. In the comparison, the Brawl Dojo didn't show off any unlockable characters (aside from the guest characters) until after the Japanese release date. I expect we will see all of newcomers prior to release as well, regardless of their status as starter or secret. After all, there's no reason to make promotional videos and not release them.

My prediction is that the website will reveal every character on the roster prior to release. As a rough estimate, I'll say that SSB4 will have 41 characters (just 4 more than Brawl). This means there are still 24 characters left to reveal. So even if the game is a year out from now, that's two character reveals per month.

The unexpected Toon Link and Sonic reveals substantiate this. It initially looked like we'd get one reveal each month, but now we're getting reveals more quickly.

Then again, you never know with Sakurai.

Accauly for the character ammount morely like 7 or more characters.

And i think the pokemon is mewtwo is going to get revealed mewtwo can get a very special case and plus im positive theres going to be more newcomer reveals. I mean i really doubt only 2 newcomers will be starters (obviously megaman will probably have to be unlocked)

Oh yea im 10% sure pac man could be the reason why sonic was revealed early. His game comes out the same week that sonic lost worlds comes out and for usa same day october 29th

 

[TumblrFamous]

Yo, Swamp! I gots me a question!

I too believe that the banner staying up was a special case for Sonic, so it wouldn't draw the suspicion that we would get another just 4 days after Toon Link. So I agree it's simply a special case.

Now, as most people are saying, we could get a Pokemon veteran (or Mewtwo if we're lucky) nearing the end of the week. Do you have any idea if, say on Friday, we get a veteran, when do you think the banner will be taken down?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Yo, Swamp! I gots me a question!

I too believe that the banner staying up was a special case for Sonic, so it wouldn't draw the suspicion that we would get another just 4 days after Toon Link. So I agree it's simply a special case.

Now, as most people are saying, we could get a Pokemon veteran (or Mewtwo if we're lucky) nearing the end of the week. Do you have any idea if, say on Friday, we get a veteran, when do you think the banner will be taken down?

I would have said today but... That doesn't seem to be the case...

I'm actually a bit worried we won't get anything on Friday.

 

[TumblrFamous]

I would have said today but... That doesn't seem to be the case...

I'm actually a bit worried we won't get anything on Friday.

Well, what happened with Toon Link, because I don't remember.

We could get it taken down Tuesday, Wednesday, or even Thursday, but it solely depends when we get a reveal. It might be tomorrow, or Thursday, or even Monday. Sakurai's unpredictability is overwhelming.

But my guess is that it will be either Thursday or Friday if we get a reveal. If we follow the pattern, that might not even be a good point anymore, then it should be taken down at the latest Wednesday.

 

[Curious Villager]

What if Sakurai has caught on with people using the banners to indicate when a new character gets revealed soon and has thus decided to keep it on and just update it whenever he reveals a new character? :/

Never mind he still gets rid of them to hint to a new character.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Well, what happened with Toon Link, because I don't remember.

We could get it taken down Tuesday, Wednesday, or even Thursday, but it solely depends when we get a reveal. It might be tomorrow, or Thursday, or even Monday. Sakurai's unpredictability is overwhelming.

But my guess is that it will be either Thursday or Friday if we get a reveal. If we follow the pattern, that might not even be a good point anymore, then it should be taken down at the latest Wednesday.

The banner had been down for a week before Toon Link was revealed.

I'd say the reveal would be on Friday or next Monday.

 

[TumblrFamous]

What if Sakurai has caught on with people using the banners to indicate when a new character gets revealed soon and has thus decided to keep it on and just update it whenever he reveals a new character? :/

That's very probable. Maybe he's just trolling us. I mean, it isn't at all difficult to update the banner and hyperlink it to the next character's page, he proved that with Sonic.

I think it's a possibility that we see a Pokemon reveal next, and very understandable. But I feel the games don't need that much promotion. Pikmin 3, Dream Team, WWHD, yeah. They could use a little something something. But maybe the doubt is just setting in.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

I have faith we'll get a Pokemom rep reveal soon. I don't know when the banner will get taken down though.

What if Sakurai has caught on with people using the banners to indicate when a new character gets revealed soon and has thus decided to keep it on and just update it whenever he reveals a new character? :/

That's a possibility, though theres no way to be sure yet.

 

[Starbound]

I would literally die and revive myself if I saw Mewtwo on the website in the next seven days.

Also I bet that the December Ninty Direct will focus on games coming out next year, so possible newcomer(s) reveal?

 

[TumblrFamous]

I would literally die and revive myself if I saw Mewtwo on the website in the next seven days.

Also I bet that the December Ninty Direct will focus on games coming out next year, so possible newcomer(s) reveal?

December Ninty Direct? Do tell.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I have faith we'll get a Pokemom rep reveal soon. I don't know when the banner will get taken down though.



That's a possibility, though theres no way to be sure yet.

Sonics reveal prooved that the banner could still be up in a character reveal

 

[SuperBrawler]

Use the magic conch shell.

 

[Xigger]

December Ninty Direct? Do tell.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nintendo_Direct_presentations#2013

You could say we get character announcements every worldwide (minus South Korea) Nintendo direct.

June gave us the original Smash 4 roster,
August revealed Luigi,
and October for Sonic.


December announcement, anyone? Wikipedia says it's for the 5th.

If you want to put on your guessing hat, just look at announced titles for 2014.

 

[Starbound]

December Ninty Direct? Do tell.

They hold them every two months.

February -> April -> June (E3) -> August (Luigi) -> October (Sonic) -> December.

 

[Glaciacott]

They hold them every two months.

February -> April -> June (E3) -> August (Luigi) -> October (Sonic) -> December.

Um, except for the fact the largest pre-E3 Nintendo Direct was the one in January? That's when WW HD, X, Fire Emblem x Shin Megami Tensei and a lot of other things were announced. I'd daresay aside from Smash and Mario, that was the biggest Nintendo Direct in terms of announcements.

 

[Starbound]

You're thinking of the Wii U directs. The Nintendo directs I'm talking about cover both 3DS and Wii U games.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_Direct

August and October's Nintendo Directs covered the games that would be later released this year. There won't be any games that they'll be covering in December that would be coming out in 2013, so they'll most likely cover games coming out in 2014.

 

[TumblrFamous]

Swamp, the banner is down.

 

[Kon]

You're right. Newcomer incoming this friday! I smell pocket monsters.

Who will it be? Will they confirm Jigglypuffs return? Or instead announce the return of Lucario, Mewtwo or the Pokemon Trainer? I'm really excited about the weekends reveal.

 

[TumblrFamous]

I'm just hoping it's either Pokemon Trainer or Mewtwo. Realistically, they seem like the obvious choices.

Then again, he could throw us a curveball, give us Jigglypuff or Lucario (which I would be thrilled to see either). It's all a guessing game, I have no idea.

 

[Kon]

Well, Jigglypuff would be a possible reveal too to represent Pokemon X&Y as she would now be a fairy type Pokemon. You're right again: we can only guess and that's it. I think I'll go with Jigglypuff as she is one of the 12 characters from SSB64.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

With the banner down

Time to place your bets gentlemen this is 3 days before x and y

 

[Berserker.]

Then again, he could throw us a curveball, give us Jigglypuff.

Jiggs ain't a curveball. In fact, she's the least curve ball character among (Arranged) her, PokeTrainer, and Mewtwo ,and Lucario.

 

[TumblrFamous]

Jiggs ain't a curveball. In fact, she's the least curve ball character among (Arranged) her, PokeTrainer, and Mewtwo ,and Lucario.

Not a curveball. It's just that the characters that Sakurai has revealed are main characters of the games they're representing. Olimar, Luigi, Toon Link, and a very early Sonic. So I expect the posterchild, Mewtwo, or the main character of the series, Pokemon Trainer.

Her being there isn't a curveball, it's just she being revealed to represent Pokemon X and Y is.

 

[Berserker.]

Not a curveball. It's just that the characters that Sakurai has revealed are main characters of the games they're representing. Olimar, Luigi, Toon Link, and a very early Sonic. So I expect the posterchild, Mewtwo, or the main character of the series, Pokemon Trainer.

Her being there isn't a curveball, it's just she being revealed to represent Pokemon X and Y is.

Ah riiiiight. Misunderstood that

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Not a curveball. It's just that the characters that Sakurai has revealed are main characters of the games they're representing. Olimar, Luigi, Toon Link, and a very early Sonic. So I expect the posterchild, Mewtwo, or the main character of the series, Pokemon Trainer.

Her being there isn't a curveball, it's just she being revealed to represent Pokemon X and Y is.

Finally someone knows why i think mewtwo is possible including pokemon trainer because those 2 are the mascots of x and y

 

[TumblrFamous]

Ah riiiiight. Misunderstood that

Not a problem. Yeah, Jigglypuff leaving now is ridiculous.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Before Toon Link and Luigi Jigglypuff would've been a curveball but now It's just another puffball.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Banner' down huh?

Guess what we're getting on Friday!

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I don't think it's fair to count Lucario out just yet.

In X/Y, you learn that Lucario is the first Pokemon that had evolved into a Mega Form. This would make it appear that he is rather relevant. Moreso than Jiggly I would say.

I think it's Pokemon Trainer, Mewtwo, or Lucario.

 

[Xigger]

The banner stayed up for 8 days. (Although Sonic was mid day) and Pokemon releases in 3 days, with an announcement in two days. That's not close to halfway.

How should we interpret this? The banner has to be up for a minimum of 7-8 days? It would also explain the Toon Link banner staying up until Sonic's reveal, which was 6 days apart.

 

[TumblrFamous]

I don't think it's fair to count Lucario out just yet.

In X/Y, you learn that Lucario is the first Pokemon that had evolved into a Mega Form. This would make it appear that he is rather relevant. Moreso than Jiggly I would say.

I think it's Pokemon Trainer, Mewtwo, or Lucario.

True. But I just base it on who is the most relevant to the game. Either Mewtwo or Pokemon Trainer fits that bill.

 

[Morbi]

Banner' down huh?

Guess what we're getting on Friday!

Jigglypuff, if not Friday, we might get it Monday. I can't wait.

 

[TumblrFamous]

The banner stayed up for 8 days. (Although Sonic was mid day) and Pokemon releases in 3 days, with an announcement in two days. That's not close to halfway.

How should we interpret this? The banner has to be up for a minimum of 7-8 days? It would also explain the Toon Link banner staying up until Sonic's reveal, which was 6 days apart.

I don't think we should interpret it any way. These potential three characters getting revealed were just placed where they are because of their games or the Direct. I just feel Sakurai takes down the banner close to a reveal, I doubt he calculates the days.

 

[Morbi]

Hey Swampasaur, I did some math during my Cultural Anthropology. You might want to check it yourself, I was supposed to be taking notes, but I was more excited for a Pokemon reveal. Haha. Anyways, You should add the "average" days it takes to get a reveal to the original post. It isn't necessarily concrete, but is should give us a good idea. I got 18, I was trying to count the days in between reveals, I might have accidentally counted on of the reveal days in it.

Currently the average is 18, Toon Link and Sonic obviously skewed it. That is the point in determining the average anyway, if we took the average before Toon Link we would be getting a character every 30 plus days. That doesn't translate to what happened.

Just a suggestion/alternative prediction method.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Of coarse after this week we need to figure out if we get a retro character next week

We get mewtwo or pokemon trainer or lucario or jigglypuff tomorrow or friday

And for the retro character for the anniversary of the usa nes october 18th (luigi was revealed for the usa release of mario bros dream team)

 

[Morbi]

Of coarse after this week we need to figure out if we get a retro character next week

We get mewtwo or pokemon trainer or lucario or jigglypuff tomorrow or friday

And for the retro character for the anniversary of the usa nes october 18th (luigi was revealed for the usa release of mario bros dream team)

I don't know about seeing 3 characters in October. It could happen. I am not expecting it though.

November would most likely be a Mario rep (Super Mario 3D World) and Zelda (A Link Between Worlds). However, they launch on the same day, so I am not really sure if we will get one over the other. They might pull a Sonic and reveal a character like Toad or Waluigi (Mario Rep) at the beginning of the month to get people talking. Especially because promotion isn't too important to a Mario game. Then they might release Zelda at the end of the month. Just a prediction.

 

[Kon]

I think we won't see any Mario rep, especially not in November, as we've got already 4 Super Mario characters until now and "only" 2 Zelda rep. So it is more evident they will reveal Zelda/Shiek or Ganondorf.

Btw: you count with another Sonic rep or have I misunderstood something, MorbidAltruism? Because I don't see it being that obvious we could already count something like a 2nd Sonic rep in. I'm also a bit more careful while talking about a Super Mario newcomer. It's possible, but that's all. And all in all: I wouldn't except another newcomer before December maybe as a kind of Christmas reveal As we've already seen: Since E3, Sakurai only revealed veterans and I guess he will first continue that way. As he said in interviews, he tries to bring back most characters in order to avoid the anger of the fans who see their favorite being cut. So it seems logical that they are first trying to put as many veterans in the games as possible before adding more newcomers. I don't say we won't get any more newcomers, but you shouldn't except an early reveal of a newcomer before we move to a more determined release date. I'm pretty sure he will save the newcomers to introduce them in the final months before the release of SSB4.

We know 17 characters until now: 14 veterans (out of 35 from Brawl) and 3 newcomers. So there are about 21 veterans that could be confirmed in the weeks to go. Some may be hidden, but there are still too many left to say we could see a newcomer in the next weeks. This would be a way too optimistic in my opinion.

 

[Morbi]

I think we won't see any Mario rep, especially not in November, as we've got already 4 Super Mario characters until now and "only" 2 Zelda rep. So it is more evident they will reveal Zelda/Shiek or Ganondorf.

Btw: you count with another Sonic rep or have I misunderstood something, MorbidAltruism? Because I don't see it being that obvious we could already count something like a 2nd Sonic rep in. I'm also a bit more careful while talking about a Super Mario newcomer. It's possible, but that's all. And all in all: I wouldn't except another newcomer before December maybe as a kind of Christmas reveal As we've already seen: Since E3, Sakurai only revealed veterans and I guess he will first continue that way. As he said in interviews, he tries to bring back most characters in order to avoid the anger of the fans who see their favorite being cut. So it seems logical that they are first trying to put as many veterans in the games as possible before adding more newcomers. I don't say we won't get any more newcomers, but you shouldn't except an early reveal of a newcomer before we move to a more determined release date. I'm pretty sure he will save the newcomers to introduce them in the final months before the release of SSB4.

We know 17 characters until now: 14 veterans (out of 35 from Brawl) and 3 newcomers. So there are about 21 veterans that could be confirmed in the weeks to go. Some may be hidden, but there are still too many left to say we could see a newcomer in the next weeks. This would be a way too optimistic in my opinion.

No. I definitely didn't allude to the notion of getting a second Sonic rep. I was saying "pull a Sonic" as in reveal the character at the beginning of the month to get it out of the way instead of on or around the release date. I understand the Mario portion of your post. I am just excited. I would like to think that Toad would be in the game. However, you are probably correct. Nevertheless, I will remain vigilant, and I will not lose hope!

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

So here's some math i've got for determining roster size.

So far, we have 17 characters revealed. The game at this point has an initial release date of 2014, most likely Q4 2014.

We've gotten 2 characters a month at the most, while two months only had one each (Luigi for August, Olimar for July) Peach and Toon Link for September. We're most likely going to get a Pokemon character this week, so that will give us our two characters for October. However, this could end up being 4 if we consider Pokemon Trainer as 3 characters.

So if we go by an average of 1 to 2 characters a month, we should get 2 character for 14 months, which would be 28 characters. However, we already have 14 out of 39 Brawl veterans revealed, so this covers more than enough. We also must take into account how many newcomers there could be. My personal feeling is 10 to 12. Any less than 10 would be upsetting. If they are revealed via Nintendo Directs, it may be possible that they will be covered a few times a year. If we get 2 to 3 Nintendo Directs that have attention directed at Smash, then we could get anywhere from 2 to 6 newcomers over the next year, because we could get one each, or two each per reveal (maybe more).

So what this tells me, is that there will be particular months that only have one character. I believe that November and December will both have two, so by year's end, we'll have 23 character revealed for the game. That gives us approximately 10-12 months until the initial release date. So, by veterans (of which we'll only have up to 19 of max by the end of 2013) we may have 20 left to cover. (We're considering Mewtwo a Newcomer with this math unless he gets revealed as a veteran).

So, if we have 12 months to cover with 20 veterans (assuming no cuts and everyone is revealed pre-release), my guess is we'll see 9 months of 2 characters, with 3 months of only 1. Again, this is assuming we see no cuts. It is also possible that with one reveal, we'll see 3 characters in Pokemon Trainer.

It's tough to find definitive answers, but at least it's a rough estimate.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

I have no clue which Pokemon rep we'll get.

They could all represent X/Y in some way, Jiggs is a Fairy-type now, you'll be able to obtain one of the starters from Red/Blue, Mewtwo and Lucario both have Mega forms....


I think the least likely is Lucario, but that's just me. Jigglypuff being a hidden member of the original 12, that might help her get a reveal soon as well, and once again, it wouldn't shock me after we saw Toon Link.

I'm betting on Mewtwo or the Jiggs.