How can we predict reveals?

[Guybrush20X6]

With Brawl there was 14 veterans to reveal (plus Sheik's super late reveal).

This time we've got at least 23 if all veteran starters return. And to complicate matters previously unlockable ones like Luigi and Toon Link revealed early. Removing them and the new characters, we have 11 veterans to come

Yoshi
Wario
Diddy Kong
Zelda
Sheik
Pokemon Trainer (Squirtle, Ivysaur, Charizard)
Meta Knight
King Dedede
Zero Suit Samus
Ike
Lucas

I know Ike has the biggest danger of being replaced but ignoring that for now, when do you think they'll be revealed?

 

[BlitznBurst]

Sonic won't be revealed in October. It's too early. I just don't see it happening. Mario & Sonic 2014 is far more likely, seeing as it's going to be closer to Smash 4's release date and is a Mario & Sonic crossover, which would better represent the SEGA-Nintendo partnership

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I posted a question about this in the Roster Prediction Discussion Thread the other day. Glad that this is getting it's own thread.

It's good to know the anniversaries and game releases. I knew there would have to be some sort of alternative for some characters, because quite a bit of characters in the roster aren't going to be getting releases very soon. These series may include:

Mother (obviously)
F-Zero
Star Fox
Pokemon (after X/Y come out)
Fire Emblem
Game and Watch (obviously)
Ice Climber
Gyromite
Wario Ware

There are probably others I'm missing. But whatever.

Also, Golden came up with a decent theory on October. He looked back at the the "leak" that Pac-Man, Little Mac, and Mii are in. In October, we have the new Pac-Man game, Wii Party U, and the Anniversary of Punch-Out!!.

This, however, would be assuming we get a Nintendo Direct this month, which has a trailer for Smash including those 3. Another thing affecting this, is that if there is a Pokemon character, which we may get within a week or two, that would take the total to 4 characters this month. Additionally, if we get Sonic, that makes it 5.

October should be interesting. I think we'll for sure get a Pokemon character because it's a huge release. The rest is up for debate. I don't think it will be Mewtwo unless he was considered a veteran. My guess is more like Pokemon Trainer or Lucario.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Sonic won't be revealed in October. It's too early. I just don't see it happening. Mario & Sonic 2014 is far more likely, seeing as it's going to be closer to Smash 4's release date and is a Mario & Sonic crossover, which would better represent the SEGA-Nintendo partnership

I don't think there's anything as too early when Toon Link has already been revealed.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Not to mention, i'm sure SEGA would want more marketing for the Sonic title that will benefit more from the exposure than Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Predicting the reveals the pokemon one is most likely to be pokemon trainer or mewtwo if he was showing that unlockable characters are still in

Pokemon trainer is a starter and you get 2 starters in x and y near the beginning and the second starter package is the kanto starters

And mewtwo that would be another special case since he was mean't for brawl and hes the most requested veteran and he the most popular pokemon (AGAIN) right now and he has the 3rd movie and inteoduced mega forms

 

[Starbound]

Random theory while I was looking at the Wiki page on this game.

Our four characters shown so far could follow a pattern of: Brawl -> Smash 64 -> Melee. We had Olimar -> Luigi -> Peach -> Toon Link. If we see Jigglypuff, Captain Falcon, Yoshi or Ness in this next reveal, this could be more than a coincidence.

And hey, it probably is just a coincidence but it's a cool theory.

 

[Ascended]

I'd say we have a 100% chance of getting a Pokemon character for October due to all the hype and promotion of X & Y. Sonic I would love to see but I'm not 100% sure he's coming next month. (Welp, looks like I was wrong) I do think something might happen with R.O.B. since October is the anniversary of the NES and we just had that 30th anniversary of the Famicom Virtual Console promotion wrap up. I do like the theory that was mentioned by Scoliosis about Pac-Man, Little Mac, and Mii.

Holy heck, October just got a lot more exciting!

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I'm thinking... Maybe we could use reveals to figure out when the game itself releases.

11 starter veterans still to come
24 in total if all return

At 1 a month that would be 11 months to reveal all the starters (August)
At 2 a month that would be 5 and a half months (mid February)

At one a month that would be 2 whole years for starters
and at two a month, September/October next year.

And that's not even getting started with newcomers.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Random theory while I was looking at the Wiki page on this game.

Our four characters shown so far could follow a pattern of: Brawl -> Smash 64 -> Melee. We had Olimar -> Luigi -> Peach -> Toon Link. If we see Jigglypuff, Captain Falcon, Yoshi or Ness in this next reveal, this could be more than a coincidence.

And hey, it probably is just a coincidence but it's a cool theory.

Hmmm not bad theory the order going by series. But the problem with that is pokemon trainer or mewtwo is more likely to be the revealed pokemon character. Since the unlockable character engine is extremly likely to still be alive i mean fighting the character you have a chance unlock has ben here since 64

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Random theory while I was looking at the Wiki page on this game.

Our four characters shown so far could follow a pattern of: Brawl -> Smash 64 -> Melee. We had Olimar -> Luigi -> Peach -> Toon Link. If we see Jigglypuff, Captain Falcon, Yoshi or Ness in this next reveal, this could be more than a coincidence.

And hey, it probably is just a coincidence but it's a cool theory.

Well, there is potential for Jigglypuff to be revealed next month, and furthermore Zelda in November. Though Sonic could easily crash that party. I think it's a mere coincidence, since the reason the characters have simply been revealed at their given time to promote their games (minus Peach), and not for any other reasons really. Still a funny little thought, especially since it'll carry on if Sonic isn't revealed next month and Jiggs is chosen to promote X & Y.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Well, there is potential for Jigglypuff to be revealed next month, and furthermore Zelda in November. Though Sonic could easily crash that party. I think it's a mere coincidence, since the reason the characters have simply been revealed at their given time to promote their games (minus Peach), and not for any other reasons really. Still a funny little thought, especially since it'll carry on if Sonic isn't revealed next month and Jiggs is chosen to promote X & Y.

Yea i can agreee with this. But for jiggs remember there are 2 others who can get that spot
Mewtwo and pokemon trainer they can premote for x and y just as well

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Yea i can agreee with this. But for jiggs remember there are 2 others who can get that spot
Mewtwo and pokemon trainer they can premote for x and y just as well

I'm still counting on Pokémon Trainer, but I just found it funny that the pattern actually could be followed.

 

[grizby2]

how to predict reveals?
I use dice.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

There COULD be a pattern, but I'd find it more likely that Sonic would be revealed before another Melee veteran. There is of course the possibility that Sonic would just be a sort of a special case to the pattern, but I don't think that would be likely.

 

[bentendo222]

There's going to be a Nintendo Direct tomorrow. So maybe we might see a new character then.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

There's going to be a Nintendo Direct tomorrow. So maybe we might see a new character then.

It's certainly possible.

Not sure about its likeliness though.

We just got Toon Link.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

So Sonic got revealed today....


I'm happy, but this kind of destroyed any sense of predictability. Again.

He might've been a special case, but I was expecting him on Lost World's release.

 

[King Orfut]

Why try?? just sit back and wait...

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Anyone here got any experience in endoscopy? 'cause if we can get a good look there we might see what character Sakurai is gonna pull next.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

An idea i had we should be asking why did sonic get revealed so early i mean think about it Mewtwo or jigglypuff or Pokemon trainer or lucario is guaranteed for next week because of X and Y

I think theres going to be 3 characters for october probably so theres room for the NES anniversary on october 18th it could be that

And if im right and if its R.O.B ill be commenced that he will revealed unlockables and starters in random order (aka he will show the unlockable characters but not reveal which ones have to be unlocked and how)

 

[SuperBrawler]

Well, edit the OP. SAWNICK is here.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Find your horses and hold them boys.

I just updated the OP.

Have at ye with the new point!

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Unfortunately I couldn't hold my horse because a headless man stole it.


My love of Halloween aside, I've come up with few possible options here-

My first one is that Sonic was a special case (being a 3rd party and Sega being all buddy-buddy with Nintendo etc) and means nothing towards the reveals of other veterans. (like the Pokemon vets)

Another is that Sakurai has abandoned the his prievous method of revealing veterans.

I find the former moe likely. Thing is, Sonic Lost World was going to be released later this month, so why was he revealed earlier? I'm assuming he was a special case. I'm not certain we'll get a Pokemon vet on X and Y's releases, but if we don't, then I think it's safe to say Sakurai has abandoned his prievous method of revealing veterans. Of course, since a few characters got revealed in Directs, I'm assuming they'll choose to reveal certain characters during this time.

With Lost World on the way and a Nintendo Direct today, they may have just decided to go ahead and reveal Sonic earlier and get him out of the way. This could mean he would be a special case in a different way; if there is a Direct during the same month as a possible veteran reveal due to a game being released they may reveal a veteran involved with that game earler during the Direct, just to get him/her out of the way. It could be for both these reasons for Sonic as well, and just for Sonic.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Random theory while I was looking at the Wiki page on this game.

Our four characters shown so far could follow a pattern of: Brawl -> Smash 64 -> Melee. We had Olimar -> Luigi -> Peach -> Toon Link. If we see Jigglypuff, Captain Falcon, Yoshi or Ness in this next reveal, this could be more than a coincidence.
And hey, it probably is just a coincidence but it's a cool theory.

Sorry sonic just ruined this theory

 

[Pega-pony Princess]

I believe Sakurai just wants to keep us all in suspense and that he's mixing things up a bit. Or he could just be doing this:

 

[Glaciacott]

The one pattern we had noticed was that the banner went down before a release.

But then Sakurai laughed in our faces as he threw a Sonic video at us while the Toon Link banner was still up.
I give up guys, there's no predicting Sakurai. He's the biggest troll in miiverse, and that's saying a lot.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Another tidbit.

Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze got delayed until February. So who is left for December? If there isn't anybody, then it's anybody's guess.

Or maybe we'll just get Old Saint Dedede

 

[Xigger]

Sonic won't be revealed in October. It's too early. I just don't see it happening. Mario & Sonic 2014 is far more likely, seeing as it's going to be closer to Smash 4's release date and is a Mario & Sonic crossover, which would better represent the SEGA-Nintendo partnership

The one pattern we had noticed was that the banner went down before a release.

But then Sakurai laughed in our faces as he threw a Sonic video at us while the Toon Link banner was still up.
I give up guys, there's no predicting Sakurai. He's the biggest troll in miiverse, and that's saying a lot.

 

[ToothiestAura]

The one pattern we had noticed was that the banner went down before a release.

But then Sakurai laughed in our faces as he threw a Sonic video at us while the Toon Link banner was still up.
I give up guys, there's no predicting Sakurai. He's the biggest troll in miiverse, and that's saying a lot.

Yeah, he knows how to **** with us - that's for sure.

It almost seems like he's getting all the Veteran reveals out of the way first. That way the majority Newcomers start getting revealed on the cusp of SSB4's release. Which creates crazy hype in the months leading up to the game. Of course, he's could just be leading us to this conclusion to **** with us a ton.

 

[Pazzo.]

Here I'm hoping for a King Dedede cause' of the Kirby 2014 reveal.... but I think we'll get a Pokemon character first, then Mario, then Donkey Kong.

 

[Xebenkeck]

This is simple put, Sakurai learning from his mistake with Brawl. With Brawl he revealed 5 newcomers in the opening video and I believe 10 of 14 newcomers before the final release. This skyrocketed everyone's expectations as to how many newcomers there actually were, and when the roster was leaked everyone raged.

This time he is showing all the veterns first and leaving the newcomers as the surprise. And at the same time lower the ludicrous expectations people have. I expect 6-8 newcomers at most. 3 of which we already know.

 

[Arteen]

Theorycrafting time:
Fact: There are 17 characters revealed so far.
Fact: Brawl had 37 characters (according to the Dojo, which treated ZSS and Sheik as separate characters, but Pokemon Trainer as a single character).
Assumption: SSB4 will have at least as many characters as Brawl, and likely more.
Assumption: Toon Link will be an unlockable character.

Based on Toon Link's early reveal, it seems like Sakurai has no qualms this time about revealing unlockable veterans prior to release. In the comparison, the Brawl Dojo didn't show off any unlockable characters (aside from the guest characters) until after the Japanese release date. I expect we will see all of newcomers prior to release as well, regardless of their status as starter or secret. After all, there's no reason to make promotional videos and not release them.

My prediction is that the website will reveal every character on the roster prior to release. As a rough estimate, I'll say that SSB4 will have 41 characters (just 4 more than Brawl). This means there are still 24 characters left to reveal. So even if the game is a year out from now, that's two character reveals per month.

The unexpected Toon Link and Sonic reveals substantiate this. It initially looked like we'd get one reveal each month, but now we're getting reveals more quickly.

Then again, you never know with Sakurai.

 

[TumblrFamous]

Another tidbit.

Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze got delayed until February. So who is left for December? If there isn't anybody, then it's anybody's guess.

Or maybe we'll just get Old Saint Dedede

He could give us a newcomer as a Christmas present.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Don't hype about this its doesn't change anything

But remember the question y did sonic get confirmed early

I found out pacman ghostly adventures comes out the exact same day sonic lost worlds comes out october 29th

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ssnw2GA657s&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Ssnw2GA657s ( but really probably just one)

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Theorycrafting time:
Fact: There are 17 characters revealed so far.
Fact: Brawl had 37 characters (according to the Dojo, which treated ZSS and Sheik as separate characters, but Pokemon Trainer as a single character).
Assumption: SSB4 will have at least as many characters as Brawl, and likely more.
Assumption: Toon Link will be an unlockable character.

Based on Toon Link's early reveal, it seems like Sakurai has no qualms this time about revealing unlockable veterans prior to release. In the comparison, the Brawl Dojo didn't show off any unlockable characters (aside from the guest characters) until after the Japanese release date. I expect we will see all of newcomers prior to release as well, regardless of their status as starter or secret. After all, there's no reason to make promotional videos and not release them.

My prediction is that the website will reveal every character on the roster prior to release. As a rough estimate, I'll say that SSB4 will have 41 characters (just 4 more than Brawl). This means there are still 24 characters left to reveal. So even if the game is a year out from now, that's two character reveals per month.

The unexpected Toon Link and Sonic reveals substantiate this. It initially looked like we'd get one reveal each month, but now we're getting reveals more quickly.

Then again, you never know with Sakurai.

I highly doubt we're only going to get 41 characters. Sakurai's team is bigger, better, and has a bit more time to work with. SSE isn't eating up time anymore either.

I'm going with 45 characters at the least. No more than 50 however.

I think we're seeing a Pokemon character this month. Lucario or Pokemon Trainer to me are most likely, but Mewtwo may get announced if he is considered a veteran. Unless of course Sakurai pulls out more random crap and surprises us again.

One last tidbit, Sonic is an October reveal. Toon Link and Peach were for September.

 

[Ghirahilda]

So Donkey Kong TF was planned to be launched in december, but now it moved to february, so we will get a DK rep only in february? Maybe we can get one rep earlier and in february another one... (K. Roll / Dixie / ???)

 

[Xigger]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nintendo_Direct_presentations#2013

You could say we get character announcements every worldwide (minus South Korea) Nintendo direct.

June gave us the original Smash 4 roster,
August revealed Luigi,
and October for Sonic.

December announcement, anyone? Wikipedia says it's for the 5th.

 

[Morbi]

Theorycrafting time:
Fact: There are 17 characters revealed so far.
Fact: Brawl had 37 characters (according to the Dojo, which treated ZSS and Sheik as separate characters, but Pokemon Trainer as a single character).
Assumption: SSB4 will have at least as many characters as Brawl, and likely more.
Assumption: Toon Link will be an unlockable character.

Based on Toon Link's early reveal, it seems like Sakurai has no qualms this time about revealing unlockable veterans prior to release. In the comparison, the Brawl Dojo didn't show off any unlockable characters (aside from the guest characters) until after the Japanese release date. I expect we will see all of newcomers prior to release as well, regardless of their status as starter or secret. After all, there's no reason to make promotional videos and not release them.

My prediction is that the website will reveal every character on the roster prior to release. As a rough estimate, I'll say that SSB4 will have 41 characters (just 4 more than Brawl). This means there are still 24 characters left to reveal. So even if the game is a year out from now, that's two character reveals per month.

The unexpected Toon Link and Sonic reveals substantiate this. It initially looked like we'd get one reveal each month, but now we're getting reveals more quickly.

Then again, you never know with Sakurai.

I like this logic. The only problem is that he will want to save a few characters to be hidden and unlockable. So there might be a few more "dry" months with only 1 reveal.

 

[Big-Cat]

By using the Millennium Necklace.