How can we predict reveals?

[BluePikmin11]

You know he could throw us off and have Ganondorf revealed instead of Zelda.

 

[SuperBrawler]

You know he could throw us off and have Ganondorf revealed instead of Zelda.

Or just no LoZ.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Or just no LoZ.

Yep that's also a possibility.

 

[Sobreviviente]

Just going to quote what i said in the smash 4 topic, i think it could help.

I actually got this.
The most well known nintendo franchises (who are veterans in smash) are the 8 principals on smash64 + FE - yoshi (take that yoshi lovers).
We had all those franchises except FE, so, i think he was the natural choise.




Im not saying i expected him, i was waiting for zelda, but really makes sense for me.

 

[BluePikmin11]

You know what's also a possibility, with Marth announced, they could easily develop Roy and have him announced later this month.

 

[SuperBrawler]

You know what also a possibility, with Marth announced, they could easily develop Roy nd have him announced later this month.

If this happens I will cry with joy.

 

[Sobreviviente]

You know what also a possibility, with Marth announced, they could easily develop Roy and have him announced later this month.

Ike was anounced first in brawl, but maybe.

 

[Kon]

Ike was anounced first in brawl, but maybe.

Wasn't that due to the point they didn't reveal unlockable characters? Even after the release, the hidden characters were kept secret on the website, you could choose if you wanted to see spoilers or if you didn't.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

This is the third character that had to be unlockable in all smash games. But still helps the rumor of the unlockable characters to be revealed anyway and kept a secret of which ones you have to unlock. And if marth is a starter could be keyed up to unlock chrom/lucina/roy

 

[BluePikmin11]

Quite possible Marth could be a starter, depending on the situation.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

My problem with the logic on Roy is that he shouldn't be easy to develop if he isn't a clone. He wouldn't be THAT similar to Marth.

I think the next newcomer is going to be Captain Falcon, because I really don't see a better time to reveal him unless they are going to do so in a gameplay trailer, which I also doubt.

I think we have a basic set of criteria that can give us an idea of who may show up. But like I said, we're here to predict, we don't know for 100%. I still think we'll see the good Captain.

 

[Knowwuh]

So ... Marth is back and it's even clearer that there's really no pattern.

Woo!

Sakurai read my thread.

Puts all my work to waste...

*sobs*

Could Marth have been revealed for the tenth anniversary of the first Fire Emblem game released in North America (Nov 3, 2003)? It was kind of a big deal when Fire Emblem stopped being Japan-only.

 

[NintendoKnight]

Could Marth have been revealed for the tenth anniversary of the first Fire Emblem game released in North America (Nov 3, 2003)? It was kind of a big deal when Fire Emblem stopped being Japan-only.

Ironically enough, the reason that happened was because of the popularity of Marth and Roy in Melee.

It comes full circle.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Could Marth have been revealed for the tenth anniversary of the first Fire Emblem game released in North America (Nov 3, 2003)? It was kind of a big deal when Fire Emblem stopped being Japan-only.

I doubt it. If that was the case then why not just reveal it on the third?

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

You know he could throw us off and have Ganondorf revealed instead of Zelda.

Ganondorf is apparently not in ALBW, so it wouldn't really make much sense to say, "Want to learn more about Ganondorf? Check out the website for The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds!"

 

[YeppersPeppers]

I doubt it. If that was the case then why not just reveal it on the third?

Because the third was Sunday.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Because the third was Sunday.

Then why not do it on the next Monday or the Friday before?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Ganondorf is apparently not in ALBW, so it wouldn't really make much sense to say, "Want to learn more about Ganondorf? Check out the website for The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds!"

It doesn't really have to make sense.

 

[YeppersPeppers]

Then why not do it on the next Monday or the Friday before?

Because that's not how Sakurai rolls, yo. ~

 

[AEMehr]

Then why not do it on the next Monday or the Friday before?

Because reveals have never been on Mondays and Fridays.

 

[AnOkayDM]

I think at this point the title of this thread should be "How can we predict reveals? - We can't."

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Because reveals have never been on Mondays and Fridays.

 

[Louie G.]

So, yeah.
I think it's safe to say that Sakurai doesn't have a pattern, nor does he care about releases or anniversaries as much as we thought.
I think he threw in Marth as a character to throw everyone off, especially considering the link to Awakening's website.

 

[jaytalks]

Ganondorf is apparently not in ALBW, so it wouldn't really make much sense to say, "Want to learn more about Ganondorf? Check out the website for The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds!"

He could promote WW HD.

I don't think Sakurai really cares about the online community's speculation, in the sense that he doesn't really pay much attention to all the speculation that comes from an individual post.

 

[AEMehr]

 

[TumblrFamous]

I have a feeling that Zelda will be revealed. Either this month or next. I know it's bad to jump to conclusions, but I can almost sense it. But still, Sakurai completely throwing off predictions is hilarious. I cannot wait for the next veteran. If it's not Zelda, I would expect Wario, Captain Falcon, or Ness for some odd reason.

Wouldn't it be funny if he further trolled us and gave us a veteran tomorrow too? I know it would NEVER happen, but it seems like something Sakurai would do to throw people off their predictions.

 

[XStarWarriorX]

You know what's also a possibility, with Marth announced, they could easily develop Roy and have him announced later this month.

Would be awesome!, but it'd be more fitting to work on him and reveal him on march 29th, unless chrom is in

 

[Swift Fox]

Just made this up out of boredom . . .

No characters likelihood
No Melee fallens
For #7 in OP
Probability of your guessed or favorite veteran being announced next or before at . . .

20 unrevealed veterans
first 5%
2nd 10%
3rd 15%
4th 20%
5th 25%
- - - -
6th last (before 5 cuts) 75%
5th last 80%
4th last 85%
3rd last 90%
2nd last 95%
last 100% All in!

 

[Sabrewulf238]

I think Sakurai does reveal characters in tandem with game releases, it's just a lot more casual and leniant then we think it is.

It's probably more "oh hey pikmin 3 is out tomorrow let's prepare an olimar unveal" and less "we must do this now or else".

 

[Vintage Creep]

Quite possible Marth could be a starter, depending on the situation.

I don't think they're announcing characters based on their starter / non starter status. I'm pretty sure Megaman, Sonic and Toon Link will be unlockables.

I would like something different this time around maybe, with a very little starting roster (maybe the original 12?) and all the others unlockable. Would be extremely fun. Or maybe something like the starting roster is chosen randomly at the first time you boot the game except for a few exceptions (Mario, Link, Pikachu, Samus, Fox and Kirby have to be starters) and the rest is unlockable. Also there's the difference between WiiU and 3DS to consider.

 

[Deleted member]

Do you guys remember this drawing Sakurai made on a white board in 2012 ?

Spoiler

This far, Zero Suit Samus, Wario, Meta-Knight, Mr. Game & Watch and maybe a Mother character (Ness or, less likely, Lucas), by referring to the Mr. Saturn, are those drawn who haven't been officially announced yet.

One theory I suggest is Sakurai will reveal some other newcomers after revealed all the characters they are in this drawing, probably in a ND in January 2014 or this December if we're lucky.
Then he'll reveal the remaining "more secondary" veterans.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

So, if Marth has taught us anything, it's that when a character is announced, they won't always coincide with an upcoming release, but can also have a link on their page to an already released game. However, to not take this out of context, it should be assumed that characters like Captain Falcon (who haven't had a recent game) will not have a link at all. Other characters in this scenario could be Meta Knight, King Dedede (until something further is shown for Kirby 3DS) Ice Climbers, G&W, R.O.B, Ike, Ness, Lucas, or any other veteran without an obvious incoming title.

Veterans WITH recent or incoming titles are: Yoshi (incoming) Wario (recent), Snake (Snake Eater 3D), Diddy Kong (incoming), Zelda (Incoming) Falco/Wolf (Star Fox 64 3DS), and any Pokemon characters considering we know that they can now be tied to Pokemon X/Y.

So now, I think it's fair to say that releases aren't always the indicator, but it can at least hint at it.

Has a definitive list of release dates and anniversaries hit the OP yet? This needs to happen!

 

[Seraphim.]

You know what's also a possibility, with Marth announced, they could easily develop Roy and have him announced later this month.

This is possible since Marth and Roy have similar skeletons.

 

[Chandeelure]

So, if Marth has taught us anything, it's that when a character is announced, they won't always coincide with an upcoming release, but can also have a link on their page to an already released game. However, to not take this out of context, it should be assumed that characters like Captain Falcon (who haven't had a recent game) will not have a link at all. Other characters in this scenario could be Meta Knight, King Dedede (until something further is shown for Kirby 3DS) Ice Climbers, G&W, R.O.B, Ike, Ness, Lucas, or any other veteran without an obvious incoming title.

Veterans WITH recent or incoming titles are: Yoshi (incoming) Wario (recent), Snake (Snake Eater 3D), Diddy Kong (incoming), Zelda (Incoming) Falco/Wolf (Star Fox 64 3DS), and any Pokemon characters considering we know that they can now be tied to Pokemon X/Y.

So now, I think it's fair to say that releases aren't always the indicator, but it can at least hint at it.

Has a definitive list of release dates and anniversaries hit the OP yet? This needs to happen!

Well,I know it is for Wii,but Kirby's Return To Dreamland is more recent than Star Fox 64 3DS.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Well,I know it is for Wii,but Kirby's Return To Dreamland is more recent than Star Fox 64 3DS.

Totally forgot about that. Interesting...so we could get a Kirby reveal tied to that.

I propose that we form a crack team of users to assemble a guide to basically display any scrap of info we can find regarding releases and what have you. It could be the ultimate database.

ULTIMATE. ****ING. DATABASE.

 

[Phaazoid]

I like how this thread has regressed to - we can't because sakurai. xD

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

So far, I have:

Ice Climbers: Jan 30, 1985 (Japan) October 18, 1985 (NA)

Game and Watch: "Silver G&W" released April 28, 1980

R.O.B - July 26th, 1985 (Japan) October 18, 1985 (NA)

Snake: For Metal Gear -- July 7, 1987.......for Metal Gear Solid: The Twin Snakes, -- March 9, 2004 (NA) March 11, 2004 (Japan)

I may continue more tonight, but I may go to bed instead.

 

[Groose]

You know he could throw us off and have Ganondorf revealed instead of Zelda.

Or he could throw a real wrench in the plan and reveal this guy:

 

[Phaazoid]

Or he could throw a real wrench in the plan and reveal this guy:

who's that?

 

[Chandeelure]

who's that?

It's Waddle Dee.