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Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

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YsDisciple

Smash Lord
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Dunno if y'all have kept track on the recent drama between Nintendo and the Smash (Melee) community and most recently, Splatoon 2 but, I'm feeling somewhat concerned for the Super Mario-themed Smash tournament. I mean, will the tournament's finals or top 8 be live streamed, or will they not hold any sort of live stream as a preemptive measure to avoid having players with name tags in support to Smash/Melee? Times like these is when many need a ray of hope; come on down already Geno. 🙏
 

MattX20

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 8, 2013
Messages
6,325
Dunno if y'all have kept track on the recent drama between Nintendo and the Smash (Melee) community and most recently, Splatoon 2 but, I'm feeling somewhat concerned for the Super Mario-themed Smash tournament. I mean, will the tournament's finals or top 8 be live streamed, or will they not hold any sort of live stream as a preemptive measure to avoid having players with name tags in support to Smash/Melee? Times like these is when many need a ray of hope; come on down already Geno. 🙏
Chances are the tournament will go on
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
Dunno if y'all have kept track on the recent drama between Nintendo and the Smash (Melee) community and most recently, Splatoon 2 but, I'm feeling somewhat concerned for the Super Mario-themed Smash tournament. I mean, will the tournament's finals or top 8 be live streamed, or will they not hold any sort of live stream as a preemptive measure to avoid having players with name tags in support to Smash/Melee? Times like these is when many need a ray of hope; come on down already Geno. 🙏
What happened with Splatoon 2?
 

Mr. Peepee

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 28, 2020
Messages
382
"What happened with Splatoon 2?" (Sorry I forgot to quote lol)
So there's this tournament with Splatoon 2 hosted by Nintendo and some players put Free Melee in their usernames. Nintendo promptly shut down the Livestream of the tournament because of it.
 
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Kremling Kommander

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2019
Messages
360
What happened with Splatoon 2?
There was supposed to be a livestream for the Splatoon NA Open Tournament yesterday. However, many teams had names in support of Saving Melee and Smash. As a result, they acted like fools and cancelled the livestream.
So, to recap of the bad stuff they’ve done recently, they’ve:
-Sent a cease and desist to the Big House for using illegal copies and Slippi to play Melee, despite that the game is discontinued and an owned copy can be used
-What I just mentioned with Splatoon 2. Basically showing that they can’t handle criticism and would rather not acknowledge what they’re doing
-And last, but not least, they told someone to stop selling Etika themed Joy Cons, despite the fact that all the profits were going to charity
Nintendo may have excellent dev teams when it comes to making games, but their PR Teams and Executives have been shockingly atrocious.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
"What happened with Splatoon 2?" (Sorry I forgot to quote lol)
So there's this tournament with Splatoon 2 hosted by Nintendo and some players put Free Melee in their usernames. Nintendo promptly shut down the Livestream of the tournament because of it.
lmao they should stay in their lane and let Nintendo finish Melee off. Dumb as hell PR move but very Nintendo.
 

Fatmanonice

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Two years and with Sakurai doubling down on the "before 2022" deadline shortly after Steve we're basically in the final 11 months because I feel like the last character will be a November announcement at the latest because December would be cutting it really close. Some lingering thoughts:

-Sakurai is a sticker for deadlines and details. They did it with Smash 4 and the Fighter's Pass, releasing content up until days of the promised deadline. Season 2 will very likely be the same. We can basically mark it on our calendars that the last character pack will be sometime in December 2021. If we were to follow this as absolute, that leaves 11 months for 3 other packs. That seems like an excessive amount of time and it is and I'll explain why...

-According to Sakurai himself, Steve was developed entirely during the pandemic meaning January 2020 at the absolute earliest:


This is noteworthy because, in September 2019, we saw this:


"Fighters." Plural. Thanks to Smash history we know Smash characters are technically developed 4 at a time, 1 in a concept development stage, 2 actually in development, and 1 basically being "cleaned up/polished" for release. Back then, we already know Terry was in the final stage, leaving two others actually being worked on and a third in the concept development stage.

Fast forward to Terry's release and the conga line has shifted, Byleth is later confirmed to be in the polish stage in November, two characters are in development, and one is in the concept development stage. If Steve didn't start actual development until 2020, Steve's concept creation likely started here so this what it would have looked like:

November 2019: Byleth (polish), Min Min and ??? (development), Steve (greenlit)

The situation gets even stranger from there once we actually get to 2020:

January 2020: Min Min (polish), ??? and Steve (development), ??? (greenlit)

Then came the delays:

June 2020: Steve (polish), ??? and ??? (development), ??? (,greenlit)

And then Steve finally happened and here's where we have been since October:

October 2020: ??? started in September 2019 (polish), ??? started in January 2020 and ??? started in June 2020 (development), ??? (greenlit)

As you can see, this is very strange.

-??? 1# started in September 2019, a year and three months ago

-??? 2# started almost a year ago

-??? #3 started almost half a year ago

By this model, the rest of Season 2 is already being worked on despite ??? #4 likely starting concept creation already 2 months ago and not being slated for another year by our own admission.

As I pointed out this weekend, 2015 had 5 releases and so did 2019 but these were with normal gaps between the characters. Even before COVID got bad, we've established that 8 and 9 were already being worked on. Even with the pandemic in mind 3 of the 4 remaining packs have had a very sizable headstart. In theory, ??? #1 has been in the oven for as long as Banjo has been out while ??? #2 is about to celebrate its first birthday.

What does this tell us? There's a pretty high chance 8, 9, and even 10 probably have had enough put into them at this point that they're in a presentable state so... Where are they? I feel it boils down to timing and ??? #1 is waiting on "something." The evidence is pretty stacked for this given how, under "normal" circumstances, it's highly like that #1 and Steve would have been E3 announcements since at least duel reveals have been the gold standard since 2001. ???#1 SHOULD have been announced 6 months ago but, since we have no evidence of total character development freezes, it's safe to argue that ??? #1 (and probably ??? #2) has been done for some time.

So, in conclusion, we have roughly a year left but there's reasonable evidence that 3 of the 4 packs have already had at least half a year put into them. As I demonstrated, the cycle of a character's journey to a Starbucks' napkin doodle to full playable character is roughly 7-8 months and it was this way in Smash 4 too. As such, there's a number of things that literally don't add up as we go into 2021.
 
D

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Brought to you by the same company that refuses to implement rollback netcode and then rages on their own fanbase for doing it themselves. Stay classy, Pretendo.
I don't have any defense for Nintendo's actions outside of the fact that they were intelligent to finally move to make Melee over Slippi a no-no if you don't want their legal team coming for your stream. It's the kind of thing I agree with because I personally hate Melee/its fanbase and if I liked it, I'd probably sing a different tune as I have in the past on different topics that Nintendo has shut down, but this is a battle that the consumer can't win. Nintendo will change Nintendo's mind on this stuff, or not, the end.
 
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MattX20

Smash Hero
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Messages
6,325
Two years and with Sakurai doubling down on the "before 2022" deadline shortly after Steve we're basically in the final 11 months because I feel like the last character will be a November announcement at the latest because December would be cutting it really close. Some lingering thoughts:

-Sakurai is a sticker for deadlines and details. They did it with Smash 4 and the Fighter's Pass, releasing content up until days of the promised deadline. Season 2 will very likely be the same. We can basically mark it on our calendars that the last character pack will be sometime in December 2021. If we were to follow this as absolute, that leaves 11 months for 3 other packs. That seems like an excessive amount of time and it is and I'll explain why...

-According to Sakurai himself, Steve was developed entirely during the pandemic meaning January 2020 at the absolute earliest:


This is noteworthy because, in September 2019, we saw this:


"Fighters." Plural. Thanks to Smash history we know Smash characters are technically developed 4 at a time, 1 in a concept development stage, 2 actually in development, and 1 basically being "cleaned up/polished" for release. Back then, we already know Terry was in the final stage, leaving two others actually being worked on and a third in the concept development stage.

Fast forward to Terry's release and the conga line has shifted, Byleth is later confirmed to be in the polish stage in November, two characters are in development, and one is in the concept development stage. If Steve didn't start actual development until 2020, Steve's concept creation likely started here so this what it would have looked like:

November 2019: Byleth (polish), Min Min and ??? (development), Steve (greenlit)

The situation gets even stranger from there once we actually get to 2020:

January 2020: Min Min (polish), ??? and Steve (development), ??? (greenlit)

Then came the delays:

June 2020: Steve (polish), ??? and ??? (development), ??? (,greenlit)

And then Steve finally happened and here's where we have been since October:

October 2020: ??? started in September 2019 (polish), ??? started in January 2020 and ??? started in June 2020 (development), ??? (greenlit)

As you can see, this is very strange.

-??? 1# started in September 2019, a year and three months ago

-??? 2# started almost a year ago

-??? #3 started almost half a year ago

By this model, the rest of Season 2 is already being worked on despite ??? #4 likely starting concept creation already 2 months ago and not being slated for another year by our own admission.

As I pointed out this weekend, 2015 had 5 releases and so did 2019 but these were with normal gaps between the characters. Even before COVID got bad, we've established that 8 and 9 were already being worked on. Even with the pandemic in mind 3 of the 4 remaining packs have had a very sizable headstart. In theory, ??? #1 has been in the oven for as long as Banjo has been out while ??? #2 is about to celebrate its first birthday.

What does this tell us? There's a pretty high chance 8, 9, and even 10 probably have had enough put into them at this point that they're in a presentable state so... Where are they? I feel it boils down to timing and ??? #1 is waiting on "something." The evidence is pretty stacked for this given how, under "normal" circumstances, it's highly like that #1 and Steve would have been E3 announcements since at least duel reveals have been the gold standard since 2001. ???#1 SHOULD have been announced 6 months ago but, since we have no evidence of total character development freezes, it's safe to argue that ??? #1 (and probably ??? #2) has been done for some time.

So, in conclusion, we have roughly a year left but there's reasonable evidence that 3 of the 4 packs have already had at least half a year put into them. As I demonstrated, the cycle of a character's journey to a Starbucks' napkin doodle to full playable character is roughly 7-8 months and it was this way in Smash 4 too. As such, there's a number of things that literally don't add up as we go into 2021.
Yep. It's why I'm fairly confident we'll know who FP8 is by year's end at least.
 

MrJudd

Smash Journeyman
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Messages
361
Dunno if y'all have kept track on the recent drama between Nintendo and the Smash (Melee) community and most recently, Splatoon 2 but, I'm feeling somewhat concerned for the Super Mario-themed Smash tournament. I mean, will the tournament's finals or top 8 be live streamed, or will they not hold any sort of live stream as a preemptive measure to avoid having players with name tags in support to Smash/Melee? Times like these is when many need a ray of hope; come on down already Geno. 🙏
Considering that this tournament is not livestreamed and the results are not announced publicly, Nintendo of America wouldn't have a issue with it.
 

GodzillaGuy64

Smash Apprentice
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Messages
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I feel we could get something Nintendo related at The Game Awards. Although, probably just wishful thinking on my part. Sadly...

In other news, he's f*ckin back.
unknown.png

Edit:
Essentially, Xbox posted a trailer for the Series X on their Twitter page and the trailer seems to tease something involving a certain alcoholic squirrel...
 
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Firox

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I don't have any defense for Nintendo's actions outside of the fact that they were intelligent to finally move to make Melee over Slippi a no-no if you don't want their legal team coming for your stream. It's the kind of thing I agree with because I personally hate Melee/its fanbase and if I liked it, I'd probably sing a different tune as I have in the past on different topics that Nintendo has shut down, but this is a battle that the consumer can't win. Nintendo will change Nintendo's mind on this stuff, or not, the end.
To be honest, I totally agree about Nintendo squashing Slippi on the grounds of Melee piracy. Whether you like Melee or not, piracy is not something a legit company can abide. Combine this with the fact that they are trying to promote Ultimate and everything they do to preserve Melee only hinders that mission. It makes perfect sense that they would like nothing better than for people to move on...after 20 freakin' years. That said, it's still an incredibly stupid and petty move to screw over the Splatoon stream just because fans are mad about the whole Melee fiasco.
 

xNovaNebulax

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Messages
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I feel we could get something Nintendo related at The Game Awards. Although, probably just wishful thinking on my part. Sadly...

In other news, he's f*ckin back.

Edit:
Essentially, Xbox posted a trailer for the Series X on their Twitter page and the trailer seems to tease something involving a certain alcoholic squirrel...
oh... oh boy...
 

StarLight42

Smash Lord
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Messages
1,683
“Developed entirely during the coronavirus” is a really blanket statement, tbh. I can easily see some development and planning occuring in 2019, and 2020 being when the character development went through full force.

While it’s almost a guarentee that 8 is done by now, don’t put it past Nintendo to sit on this DLC and wait to release it until like a month or two in the future. February at the absolute worst.


Frankly, I think we should just put a 2020 reveal to bed at this point, and try to distract ourselves with other things. I think a TGA reveal is a near 100% uncertainty, but even if it was in the cards, I honestly don’t want it to happen anyways. Most “TGA tier” speculated characters bore me to tears, even if there aren’t really any rules with who can be revealed at the event. I feel like if there WAS a TGA reveal this year, you can say sayonara to Geno being Challenger Pack 8, lol.

To be honest, I totally agree about Nintendo squashing Slippi on the grounds of Melee piracy. Whether you like Melee or not, piracy is not something a legit company can abide. Combine this with the fact that they are trying to promote Ultimate and everything they do to preserve Melee only hinders that mission. It makes perfect sense that they would like nothing better than for people to move on...after 20 freakin' years. That said, it's still an incredibly stupid and petty move to screw over the Splatoon stream just because fans are mad about the whole Melee fiasco.
it isn’t illegal to extract games to roms if you own the original disk
 

MattX20

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Messages
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I feel we could get something Nintendo related at The Game Awards. Although, probably just wishful thinking on my part. Sadly...

In other news, he's f*ckin back.

Edit:
Essentially, Xbox posted a trailer for the Series X on their Twitter page and the trailer seems to tease something involving a certain alcoholic squirrel...
Conker's back? Damn, when was the last time we heard from that series?
 

TheCJBrine

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There was no proof The Big House’s participants had committed piracy. They could have very well ripped their own discs, which is also legal if they don’t redistribute the ripped copy.

Emulation is legal, and Slippi is too assuming it didn’t use any of Nintendo’s code. Slippi is a Dolphin modification, so you don’t even need to modify Melee.

Of course, for whatever reason, Nintendo detests people playing the games they make in any way that wasn’t intended, so they go ham on anything that isn’t just the console and TV with no mods. Of course, it’s their IP, so they are still legally in the right to take down what they don’t like, but the reasoning was bullcrap.
 
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Paraspikey

Smash Journeyman
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Messages
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“Developed entirely during the coronavirus” is a really blanket statement, tbh. I can easily see some development and planning occuring in 2019, and 2020 being when the character development went through full force.

While it’s almost a guarentee that 8 is done by now, don’t put it past Nintendo to sit on this DLC and wait to release it until like a month or two in the future. February at the absolute worst.


Frankly, I think we should just put a 2020 reveal to bed at this point, and try to distract ourselves with other things. I think a TGA reveal is a near 100% uncertainty, but even if it was in the cards, I honestly don’t want it to happen anyways. Most “TGA tier” speculated characters bore me to tears, even if there aren’t really any rules with who can be revealed at the event. I feel like if there WAS a TGA reveal this year, you can say sayonara to Geno being Challenger Pack 8, lol.



it isn’t illegal to extract games to roms if you own the original disk
I think we should put 2020 to bed around the last moment, the week at TGA, if nothing happens then, then it's safe to say we wont get anything.
Is it annoying to wait till kinda the last moment to call it quits? Kinda, but at least people didn't go down until it was absolutely clear nothing was happening.
 

QQS

Smash Lord
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Messages
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Based on the Cup, more than TGA, we should get something, right? I think we may see #8 revealed before the year ends; to be downloaded in the first week of January
 

YsDisciple

Smash Lord
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Imo, the killswitch for expecting CP 8's announcement should be around the week of the 13th-19th of December. The 13th would be the day following the Super Mario-themed Smash tournament, and as it's been seen throughout this year, Min Min and Steve were revealed a few days after similar tournaments concluded. If nothing pans out within that week, then it'll be GG until January or February at the latest.
 

BigZGaming2015

Smash Journeyman
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Messages
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I feel we could get something Nintendo related at The Game Awards. Although, probably just wishful thinking on my part. Sadly...

In other news, he's f*ckin back.

Edit:
Essentially, Xbox posted a trailer for the Series X on their Twitter page and the trailer seems to tease something involving a certain alcoholic squirrel...
I think at the most we'll get a few smaller reveals like last year. I want to get my hopes up but then again I'm afraid that we'll get a repeat of last years Game Awards :/

BUT YOOO CONKER???? I wonder what they got planned for him
 

Mr. Peepee

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Messages
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Do you have the link to the trailer?
I feel we could get something Nintendo related at The Game Awards. Although, probably just wishful thinking on my part. Sadly...

In other news, he's f*ckin back.

Edit:
Essentially, Xbox posted a trailer for the Series X on their Twitter page and the trailer seems to tease something involving a certain alcoholic squirrel...
 

Fatmanonice

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“Developed entirely during the coronavirus” is a really blanket statement, tbh. I can easily see some development and planning occuring in 2019, and 2020 being when the character development went through full force.

While it’s almost a guarentee that 8 is done by now, don’t put it past Nintendo to sit on this DLC and wait to release it until like a month or two in the future. February at the absolute worst.


Frankly, I think we should just put a 2020 reveal to bed at this point, and try to distract ourselves with other things. I think a TGA reveal is a near 100% uncertainty, but even if it was in the cards, I honestly don’t want it to happen anyways. Most “TGA tier” speculated characters bore me to tears, even if there aren’t really any rules with who can be revealed at the event. I feel like if there WAS a TGA reveal this year, you can say sayonara to Geno being Challenger Pack 8, lol.
But I highlighted that. For Steve to have all his development done in 2020, he would have been in the concept stage starting in November 2019 at the earliest. Here's why that matters:

According to Sakurai himself, Joker, Hero, and Banjo were all in development in December 2018. This is further confirmed because Plant, Joker, and Hero were already in the game's code, meaning Banjo was in the concept creation phase.

December 2018: Plant (polish), Joker and Hero (development), Banjo (concept)

February 2019: Joker (polish), Hero and Banjo (development), Terry (concept)

November 2019: Byleth (polish), Min Min and ??? (development), Steve (concept)

January 2020: Min Min (polish), ??? and Steve (development), ??? (concept)

Note the strong similarities. Like I said before, the typical development cycle of a character is 7-8 months. Byleth was released late January, borderline February. In a sense, Steve would have started development in February. 2+8 = 10, which lands us perfectly in October and Steve was revealed literally the first day of October. Terry was early November, which also lines up with how Hero was supposedly delayed roughly a month.

To add to this, its never been said that development has totally stopped but slowed down for obvious reasons. Sakurai openly talks about fears surrounding this in March but seems to imply a decent system is in place by the end of the summer. Even with this statement, there's still half of the remaining Season 2 packs even before COVID got bad because if you were to do a freeze frame of April 2020, you'd still have this:

April 2020: Min Min (polish), Steve and ??? (development), ??? (concept)
 
D

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It isn't....as long as you actually own the original disk...cuz nobody ever emulates or anything without it, right?
Yeah, you know, because all of the competitors at The Big House are totally going to have the original disc of a game that's older than most of them, and the programs with which to rip it. And The Big House staff is totally going to validate that all of these competitors ripped a legitimate ROM from their legitimate discs by demanding SHA256 hashes from them to cut down on modified ROMs. Definitely.

I'm not going to get into my opinions on piracy or whether or not Nintendo should even have a leg to stand on to come after streamers, events, organizers, fan projects, etc because those feelings are outside of the scope of this thread, even beyond what I'm posting now which is admittedly outside of the scope of this thread. This all boils down to the fact that Nintendo has a modern Smash game that they're actively trying to promote with DLC and rollback code Melee is a threat to that, no matter how minor. There's some stuff that Nintendo has done in the past that probably wouldn't hold up in court and they rely on the little guy not being willing to challenge them, but this is one instance where it would.

The real question is if they're taking down Melee does that mean a Melee character is going to return in Ultimate[/sarcasm]
 

xNovaNebulax

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i mean, it would also be reasonble to consider that fp 8 , IF geno, would take a while, because they might be finding a way to impliment timed hits.
 

Firox

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At the very least, I think its perfectly reasonable to assume that 8's video showcase is recorded.
Definitely. I agree with Fatman that fighter 8 is pretty much just waiting for the right time to drop now. The only question I have at this point is....WHAT THE FREAK ARE THEY WAITING FOR?!
 

Vector Victor

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Definitely. I agree with Fatman that fighter 8 is pretty much just waiting for the right time to drop now. The only question I have at this point is....WHAT THE FREAK ARE THEY WAITING FOR?!
Its the Nintendo Marketing Department, which we know has been super duper A++ this year totally.
 
D

Deleted member

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Why do I get this really strange suspicion that fatman doing the math on these characters does little more than add truth to these statements:
  • Mii Costume Guy could not have heard Mii costumes for a character who wasn't even in moveset planning in July of 2019
  • Cacomallow couldn't be real for a character who probably wasn't in development in November of 2019
  • Gamestop lass could not have possibly known jack **** about Geno when he was mid-development in July of 2020

Whoever 8 is, it ain't Geno by the logic of development timing. Fighter Pass 2 is turning out to be one of my most heavily regretted video game related purchases ever, right behind the Wii U.
 
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yungmornindrive

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Why do I get this really strange suspicion that fatman doing the math on these characters does little more than add truth to these statements:
  • Mii Costume Guy could not have heard Mii costumes for a character who wasn't even in moveset planning in July of 2019
  • Cacomallow couldn't be real for a character who probably wasn't in development in November of 2019
  • Gamestop lass could not have possibly known jack **** about Geno when he was mid-development in July of 2020

Whoever 8 is, it ain't Geno by the logic of development timing. Fighter Pass 2 is turning out to be one of my most heavily regretted video game related purchases ever, right behind the Wii U.
I respect the logic, but I’m telling you, COVID throws all logic and patterns out the door. Doing this math at this point is relatively pointless given we have no clue exactly how backed up Nintendo is. And Nintendo isn’t the only one.
 

7NATOR

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Why do I get this really strange suspicion that fatman doing the math on these characters does little more than add truth to these statements:
  • Mii Costume Guy could not have heard Mii costumes for a character who wasn't even in moveset planning in July of 2019
  • Cacomallow couldn't be real for a character who probably wasn't in development in November of 2019
  • Gamestop lass could not have possibly known jack **** about Geno when he was mid-development in July of 2020

Whoever 8 is, it ain't Geno by the logic of development timing. Fighter Pass 2 is turning out to be one of my most heavily regretted video game related purchases ever, right behind the Wii U.
I Always found the Mallow/Smithy Placements weird because not only were they the only Mii costumes on the list that haven't come out yet, but Sans was not on there as well

The Banjo Mii Costume list leak came out July right? That was around the time of Hero's Presentation. Perhaps around that time was when Mallow/Smithy were confirmed as Future Mii Costumes (FP2 was being decided), and such like that. But I don't know
 

Firox

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Whoever 8 is, it ain't Geno by the logic of development timing. Fighter Pass 2 is turning out to be one of my most heavily regretted video game related purchases ever, right behind the Wii U.
Hey, bro, for the record, I don't regret buying a Wii U in the slightest. The hardware was janky, but that little butt-kicker had one hell of a library. It had Mario 3D world, Mario Kart 8, the first Mario Maker, Pikmin 3, Bayonetta 2, Pokken Tournament, Xenoblade Chronicles X, Wonderful 101, Breath of the Wild (yes, everyone always forgets that that game is dual platform), Hyrule Warriors, Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze, Smash 4 (of course) and a VASTLY superior eShop/virtual console compared to the Switch.

As for Fighter Pass 2 being hands down the most heavily regretted purchase.........the jury is still out. Ask me again after the next couple reveals.
 
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Fatmanonice

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Hero and Banjo were both in development to some degree by December 2018 so, going by the timescale I posted, the two original E3 2020 reveals would have started development by November 2019. Steve is the only one of the two who has been revealed and supposedly he was released "on time." This just adds to the theorycraft that there was supposed to be a September release because, with Min Min's delays, the gap between Min Min and that September release would have been the typical roughly two month gap between character releases. That's what is currently missing.
 
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