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Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

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Joshdabozz

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Me, who likes the 3D games pretty much equally:
Cracking toast Gromit, No crackers, Gromit! We've forgotten the crackers! (yes I mixed two quotes together)

As the year is a little over two months from wrapping up, with Steve's reveal and Vergeben's words from back then having panned out, the pool for who Challenger Pack 8 could be seems to have become clearer now due to upcoming events. The names that got things going in their favor for Challenger Pack 8 (imo), with a potential reveal sometime around December (TGA) 2020, or early January 2021 are the following,
  • Geno = nearing the half-way point of the Fighters Pass Vol. 2, and being in the midst of the Super Mario Bros. 35th Anniversary, AND Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars still nowhere to be seen in the SNES NSO Library, it would be fitting for Geno to come along as a playable fighter in a December character reveal. Him being a doll (albeit possessed) would resonate with the Christmas Holiday (as a present). Imo, he would be the Banjo fan-pic for the Pass.
  • Lloyd Irving = we're coming up on the Tales of 25th Anniversary and Bandai Namco still hasn't tweeted or announced any news on that. I still can't shake the feeling that the Anniversary logo they're using could perhaps be the character icon meant for Smash. Also, for the connoisseurs of Tales of Symphonia, there is a location within the game that is central to part of the game's plot; the snow city of Flanoir. Won't go into the details because of spoilers but, let's just say that it's an important location nonetheless. Oh, and Flanoir is also located near a certain "gate" that allows the party to traverse between "worlds".
  • Ryu Hayabusa = ah yes, the "is he" or "is he not" character of this year(s) long Smash DLC speculation cycle. Prior to the latter half of 2020, his name would have remained as an after thought, but Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity, the rumors of a Ninja Gaiden Trilogy, AND Steve's official reveal as CP 7 changed all that. Imo, the element that strengthens Ryu's chances considerably is the existence of Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity. A Koei Tecmo developed game using one of Nintendo's main IPs. What drives the point even further is the portrayal of the Sheikah in this game (particularly Impa). Zelda faithfuls have always understood the Sheikah clan to always have been this secretive clan who practice ninja-like arts, but in HW:AoC Koei Tecmo went IN with the ninja arts. The line of thought after Impa's new iteration went along with "she'd be perfect for Smash", and indeed she is. On the other hand, Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity could have been part of the negotiations between Koei and Nintendo that went down some time ago, which may also have included the addition of Ryu Hayabusa to Super Smash Bros. Ultimate as well. Say that such negotiations happened around a time close or after Microsoft's, then why didn't Ryu came in sooner? Again, perhaps they wanted to hold his reveal/release at a time near HW:AoC's release.
  • Doom Slayer = Bethesda and Id Software really have been good bros with Nintendo with porting the near entire legacy of DOOM games to the Switch. All there's left is DOOM Eternal. ... ... ... Anytime now. ... ... The latest entry in the DOOM series has been out on other systems for quite some time, but the Switch version's release date still remains a mystery. Id Software has reiterated that it's coming, but when exactly? Perhaps this may be due to two things (in addition to the likely delays due to the ongoing pandemic): 1) the rumors of a potential Switch Pro; if said revision exists, the team might be optimizing the game to run in that system, and/or 2) DOOM Eternal will be receiving a DLC Expansion soon which for the Switch version might be included in the game on launch with a rebranding of the title; DOOM Eternal: Ultimate Edition. The Doom Slayer would be an interesting and fitting choice for a Smash reveal during this year's TGA. An character from an M rated series revealed just like Joker during the TGA from 2018 (another character from an M rated title).
  • Crash Bandicoot = Crash 4 released recently, and although he didn't end up being CP 7, he could make a surprise appearance in this year's TGA, continuing an unspoken plot that began in 2018 (or maybe even before that when Crash Bandicoot: N'Sane Trilogy was first announced). The supposed "leaked memo, or plan list" sprinkles some more good luck on the bandicoot's chances, but we'll just have to see what happens come December. Crash 4 IS coming to the Switch (eventually... give it perhaps a year or so).
  • Rayman = Ah, "but what is HE doing here?" some may wonder. Well, his base game spirit and Min Min's inclusion, as well as the Ubisoft-themed Mii Costumes should serve as a "wink" to fans in sending the message to keep their eyes peeled for a surprise reveal. Although it would seem nothing new has been planned for the series, there is a small glimmer of hope in yet another upcoming Ubisoft Forward stream (still to be announced) before the year's end. The Company seems to be focusing on their newest IPs, but it would be a capital SIN to turn their backs on their quirky mascot.
I think your forgetting Rex and Pyra. Hold on let me explain. Yes I know nobody has mentioned them, but as of right now, we have 2 characters who were supposed to be in base game.

Min Min: ARMs character did not make it cause of time/ the game came out after deadline for roster confirmation.

Steve: Been in negotiations/development for 5 years

I believe Ryu Hayabusa is coming, same with Rex and Pyra. Geno, Lloyd, Crash, and Doomslayer all have shots though.

So I need to ask, I'm doing some Mii Costume Math right now, And I'm on Geno at the moment

Would Mallow and Smithy actually be Costumes if Geno were to be Playable, Like could they fit and do you see Sakurai Prioritizing these two as Costumes even if Geno is Playable?
Mallow yes, Smithy idk.
 
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MisterMike

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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Fancy a better look at IDW Sonic's NOT-Geno character, Belle? Not Geno, totally. The hat, the hair, the whole wooden robot thing... not Geno.
View attachment 288871
...Looks a lot more like regular Pinnochio to me, honestly. Not all puppets are the same, after all, heh.

Though it does actually reminds me of Marine and Sticks even moreso. When was she created? Also, Belle even sounds more like a Disney reference, of which have a lot of folktales reinvented.
 

UltimateCyborgOverlord

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Was Belle inspired by Geno?
...Looks a lot more like regular Pinnochio to me, honestly. Not all puppets are the same, after all, heh.

Though it does actually reminds me of Marine and Sticks even moreso. When was she created? Also, Belle even sounds more like a Disney reference, of which have a lot of folktales reinvented.
Belle was just revealed and will be in upcoming IDW Sonic the Hedgehog comics

A note specifically namedropping Super Mario RPG from one of the cover artists



:ultgreninja:'d
 
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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Belle was just revealed and will be in upcoming IDW Sonic the Hedgehog comics

A note specifically namedropping Super Mario RPG from one of the cover artists



:ultgreninja:'d
Ah, fair enough. Though it's clear the concept was from SMRPG, but the design is far more different. As I noted, she looks a lot like Sticks. So it's clear they're using multiple design references.

But yeah, it's implied. It's not clear if Belle was based upon Geno, but the general artstyle in many cases clearly is SMRPG. I can easily believe she was inspired by him. Any other new characters, and if they are similar to other SMRPG characters?
 
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UltimateCyborgOverlord

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Ah, fair enough. Though it's clear the concept was from SMRPG, but the design is far more different. As I noted, she looks a lot like Sticks. So it's clear they're using multiple design references.
Sticks herself is kind of like Aika from Skies of Arcadia with the hair and boomerang combo

Obviously they can't copy paste Geno, that's how you get sued. Switch the color here, overalls instead of a cape, add some pigtails, and of particular note, add a clown nose honk honk. There you go. Different character (clearly inspired by Geno though)
 

Peepo T. Skeleton

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Don't know if this has already been posted, but Source Gaming put up a video about the remaining costumes

Also is anyone else seeing the underlining on my post? Idk why it's doing that
 
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YsDisciple

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It’s been heavily implied that she is inspired by Geno.

Hmm, looking at the giant E-Series robot, it looks like Zeta. In Sonic Adventure he was the biggest of the E-Series robots and contrary to his brothers, he was more of a mounted multi-cannon turret boss. If it's in fact Zeta, it's a fitting touch since he's the boss of a factory-like stage.

EDIT: On a different note, I just realized; we're in October. Perhaps we might be seeing the speculated Luigi's Mansion 3 spirit event this Halloween? 🤔
 
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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Sticks herself is kind of like Aika from Skies of Arcadia with the hair and boomerang combo

Obviously they can't copy paste Geno, that's how you get sued. Switch the color here, overalls instead of a cape, add some pigtails, and of particular note, add a clown nose honk honk. There you go. Different character (clearly inspired by Geno though)
Of course not. That's why they made her resemble Pinnochio very closely instead of Geno.

Though they can still do similar-looking ones as parodies. Though the line between parody and rip-off is thin, which is why many don't bother anymore.

That said, this is pretty cool.
 

UltimateCyborgOverlord

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Hmm, looking at the giant E-Series robot, it looks like Zeta. In Sonic Adventure he was the biggest of the E-Series robots and contrary to his brothers, he was more of a mounted multi-cannon turret boss. If it's in fact Zeta, it's a fitting touch since he's the boss of a factory-like stage.

EDIT: On a different note, I just realized; we're in October. Perhaps we might be seeing the speculated Luigi's Mansion 3 spirit event this Halloween? 🤔
It's almost kinda like the giant Smithy head

But yeah, if you haven't read em, the IDW Sonic comics are mmmmmmmm tasty for Sonic fans. If you missed the floppies you can get the trade collections
 
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Powerman293

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I know a lot of people are worried about Geno's chances if he's not the next character. But how dire are people feeling then? Considering how far Geno's chances have come since Brawl, it can't be his lowest point, can it?
 

OptimisticStrifer

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I know fatman has a vague idea what might happen if there's bonus stuff but I wonder if chorus kids has a shot if that happens tbh. If they have assets left from Smash 4 it could make thing's easier, and that's yet another new franchise
 
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7NATOR

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I am going to get trolled for this but I would like to hear the arguments for why Sakurai should choose Geno over Sora or Lara Croft.

The thought is that Lara Croft and Sora come from popular gaming series with tons of fans while Geno is a side character in a popular Mario classic.
First of All fixed

2nd, I think one advantage Geno has over Lara and Sora is he'd be much easier to License, especially since he is in the game in some form. I don't know how much Licensing there is with Lara, but With Sora that could be hell with Disney, so Geno would be much easier in the Grand Scheme

I think also in terms of Moveset, abilities, Design, he does have a Unique design and some cool stuff he can do. Granted Sora has a bunch of stuff to, but Imagine Geno would be much easier to Implement too, while Being interesting. as for Lara, she can do stuff, but it might not be seen as "cool" by people and junk like that.

Geno does have a Big Smash Fanbase. so even if he's Niche to Casuals, I could see Hardcore Fanbase buying him. I also don't think every character needs wide appeal like Steve.

Yeah Personally that's all I really got. Geno does have alot of stuff stacked against him, but those are reasons I could see him being chosen over Lara and Sora
 

volbound1700

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First of All fixed

2nd, I think one advantage Geno has over Lara and Sora is he'd be much easier to License, especially since he is in the game in some form. I don't know how much Licensing there is with Lara, but With Sora that could be hell with Disney, so Geno would be much easier in the Grand Scheme

I think also in terms of Moveset, abilities, Design, he does have a Unique design and some cool stuff he can do. Granted Sora has a bunch of stuff to, but Imagine Geno would be much easier to Implement too, while Being interesting. as for Lara, she can do stuff, but it might not be seen as "cool" by people and junk like that.

Geno does have a Big Smash Fanbase. so even if he's Niche to Casuals, I could see Hardcore Fanbase buying him. I also don't think every character needs wide appeal like Steve.

Yeah Personally that's all I really got. Geno does have alot of stuff stacked against him, but those are reasons I could see him being chosen over Lara and Sora
Great post. I can see your points. I am kind of split on it. I want to see the Geno fanbase happy but if it came down to him or the other two Square-Enix giants, I might go with one of the giants. I do not... very tough call.
 

Super10ZX

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I've been debating this for awhile, but I think now is a fine time. I'm gonna take a break from Smash speculation and posting on this website. I'm just getting burnt out of it again, and now that we're back in what will likely be another long waiting period between characters, I don't want to keep dragging along when I need a break from it all.

I'll probably keep checking on this thread though. I've grown to love the manga-level storyline that is the Geno thread, and most of this communities drive and passion. The fact that a community this strong can persist through thick and thin for a character like Geno is awe-inspiring to me, and I've even surprised myself with how much I've posted here within the last few months. Before I thought I would only post a couple times, and that would be it. A random lurker supporting a community that's been repeatedly kicked down over and over. But the drive of everyone here was able to pull me in.

Don't know when I'll get back to posting, but rock on everyone!
sniperminer on Scratch
 

Enigma735

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I am going to get trolled for this but I would like to hear the arguments for why Sakurai should choose Geno over Sora or Lora Croft.

The thought is that Lora Croft and Sora come from popular gaming series with tons of fans while Geno is a side character in a popular Mario classic.
I say this time and time again, but I personally feel Sora isn't the best pick for Smash. Kingdom Hearts is a massively popular franchise and Sora is one of those characters that would demolish the internet, but I just think if Sora were to get included, he wouldn't represent the Kingdom Hearts franchise well at all. Disney plays such a huge role in Kingdom Hearts, and obviously because of the no video game characters rule, that Disney stuff would have to be omitted, and Disney is one of the most important factors about Kingdom Hearts. I do acknowledge the OC's in the Kingdom Hearts franchise as well, but I don't see them as being as important as the Disney characters, and again, I feel it wouldn't be good Kingdom Hearts representation without the Disney content.

Lara Croft is a character I do agree belongs in Smash, and if it does happen, I won't be mad at all and I will completely understand that inclusion since she is the most iconic female video game protagonist. But I just feel like Tomb Raider doesn't have the best history with Nintendo. If Lara Croft were to get in, her inclusion would be just because she is iconic, and not because of her history with Nintendo. I am someone who does believe if you are a third-party character, you must at least have some sort of history with Nintendo. Now I do realize their are some Tomb Raider games on Nintendo systems, but none of the main series games, to my knowledge, have ever seen the light of day on a Nintendo system.

Now comparing these characters to Geno. Yes, Geno isn't iconic at all in the grand scheme of things and he was just in one game from almost 25 years ago, but Geno would be the character that would best represent Nintendo and Square Enix's relationship. I highly recommend watching papagenos papagenos 's "Why Geno?" video. Its an old video so you may have to do some searching, but in that video, he explains the importance of Geno and why people want to see him included. To sum it up, basically Nintendo and Square had an incredibly strong relationship back in the mid 90's and together, they made the first ever Mario RPG, Super Mario RPG. The game didn't do too well since the game was released close to the end of the SNES's lifespan and the fact that the N64 was literally about to release a month after the game came out, but the game didn't do terribly bad either.

Anyways, Nintendo and Square had a falling out when the N64 was about to release. Square was hoping Nintendo would use discs so that they could make cutscenes for their games, but Nintendo still ended up using cartridges for the N64. As such, Nintendo and Square's relationship practically ended and Square started to work more so with Sony to publish games for the PlayStation, and they released Final Fantasy VII, aka their most critically acclaimed video game of all time. This is a big reason why people want to see Geno, because he represents the early years of Nintendo and Square's relationship.

And to top it all off, he is a character from a Mario RPG, and I think we could really use some Mario RPG representation, especially Super Mario RPG considering the game's lack of representation, for obvious reasons.

Don't worry, you won't be trolled just as long as your respectful and it is a very commonly asked question. I just hope this post sums it up for you and I hope you understand just why exactly people want Geno included and why he should get included.
 

Fatmanonice

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And what if somethings mii costume guy mentioned are just spirits, like a spirit future event of cadence of hyrule with cadence, link, zelda and someone else.

Or a spirit event with Arle for the future release of Puyo Puyo Tetris 2. We have to take in account all posibilites.
That's kind of the problem because it's not like all these names were given at once. They were names that were mentioned by MCG between early November and late December. The only names that were outright said to have come together are Kris from Deltarune and Knight from Hollow Knight. We've just assumed Mii costumes because Cuphead happened.

So I need to ask, I'm doing some Mii Costume Math right now, And I'm on Geno at the moment

Would Mallow and Smithy actually be Costumes if Geno were to be Playable, Like could they fit and do you see Sakurai Prioritizing these two as Costumes even if Geno is Playable?
Yes because I've noticed that all companies or almost all franchises with playable characters have at least two Mii costumes. In Smash 4, Geno was Smash x Mario RPG so SMRPG will likely continue to technically have seperate content.
 

Genome

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Hey, I've got a prompt for the thread over semi-protagonist characters in Smash. What's your favorite game without a clear protagonist and who would you choose from it to be a Smash pick? (You can explain why if you want)
I'll start:


I choose the Hunter from Enter the Gungeon because I think her design has a lot of unique influences compared to the 3 other main characters.
 

Megadoomer

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Hey, I've got a prompt for the thread over semi-protagonist characters in Smash. What's your favorite game without a clear protagonist and who would you choose from it to be a Smash pick? (You can explain why if you want)
I'll start:


I choose the Hunter from Enter the Gungeon because I think her design has a lot of unique influences compared to the 3 other main characters.
This seems like it would work better for the Newcomer Speculation thread - in this thread, it's off-topic.
 

StrangeKitten

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How did this thread talk about bonus characters and not mention Balloon Fighter? Y'all don't think Sakurai wouldn't put in a character as an homage to Iwata? In the last project Iwata gave him? When there's already a Balloon Fight stage and some modeling with Villager's Up B? I can almost guarantee if we get a bonus character, we'll get him.
I want balloon fighter and I think he'd make an excellent addition! He could have a unique gimmick in that he'd be strong the more balloons he had, being a pretty weak fighter if you pop all his balloons.
 

Droodle

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I doubt Mii Costume Guy's list is real; at least for anything past Terry. He didn't mention Sans, and let's give him some leeway and say he did predict Terry's SPIRTS. After that all he's gotten right is Cuphead (which was the safest bet ever after Sans), and you don't need a leaker to tell you that.

Saying he got Byleth's alts right, when he never specified such a thing is such a huge leap of faith. "Oh yeah, he actually didn't know the character but he knew all the alts that they had" is frankly stupid. If we're giving him that much leeway for error, what's to say that he didn't actually mean characters like Gooigi are even mii costumes? "Oh yeah, he wasn't guessing a Gooigi mii costume; he actually guessed a Gooigi SPIRIT". And eventually we'll jump into "Yeah, he didn't guess 2B or Arle mii costumes; but he actually was guessing them as Fighter spirits".

He didn't guess Terry's WAVE or Byleth's or Min-Min's or Steve's. And again, the last costume he got right was Cuphead; who was one of the most speculated/predicted Mii Costumes out there.

Gooigi: The perfect time to show him off would have been with Min Min or Byleth; another first party character. Though granted another 1st party character is possible.

Joanna Dark: Should've been shown off with Steve; unless Master Chief is in the same pass. A bonus wave may happen, but lol if Mii costume guy is leaking costumes releasing after 2021.

2B/Mallow/Smithy: Mallow and Smithy may come with Geno, sure. I doubt 2B would though; considering her popularity currently I'm pretty sure Square would ask a exorbitant sum to license her, or not at all. She's either a character that's in as a fighter, or not at all. If Geno gets in, the costumes he'll get are just likely going to be Mallow/Smithy/old Geno costume/Chocobo. 2B currently has a less chance to get costumed than Geno.

Hollow Knight/Kris: How would they even know that these costumes are coming in the same wave? The only connection that they share is that they're indies, and unless we get an indie character I doubt that they would come together. Kris/Hollow Knight aren't even linked with any company relations or anything. And this isn't a scenario with him knowing Banjo's costumes, because Banjo was at the very least immediately next.

Arle Nadja: Arle has been a big request in Japan since Smash 4, and Puyo Puyo is decently popular in Japan; along with a pretty long legacy too. I doubt that they'd negotiate for her rights as a mii costume after so long, unless she's coming with other SEGA content/costumes; but there are no hints towards the likes of those. It's important to note that SEGA also always releases their costumes in pairs too; Joker came with 2 protags, and 2 mascots. Knuckles and Tails, and Akira and Jacky also always released together. This indicates that if Arle is coming as a costume, she's likely coming with another Puyo Puyo costume too.

Ms. Pac-Man:
I may be wrong on this one, but isn't Namco in sore terms with the character currently? I swear she gets barely used by them anymore, and a good portion of that is likely due to copyrights (or so I think I've heard).

There are a couple more like the Sony associated character, Cadence, Ori? (did Mii costume guy say that?).

The important thing is that unless some of these are meant to come as "bonus" waves; that getting all of them is unlikely (not impossible) in Fighters Pass 2 anyways.
If Square-Enix's wave is still purely Square-Enix; then there are 12 non-Square Enix costumes hinted in the list (also assuming that the Lloyd and MH costumes return regardless of a promotion). So far the maximum number of costumes in a wave is 6, and only Joker and Steve had that many. On average it's 5 costumes per character.

Assuming Square-Enix come with their own characters like they always do; then they take away 4-6 costumes off a hypothetical 19-22 costume "limit". That leaves us with 12 remaining costumes to add in with 15-18 costumes in total. Technically possible, but I doubt it. The presence of even one company with a big wave dedicated to themselves, mostly kills the entire list; unless all the companies turn out to be like Byleth/Banjo or MinMin; and have none to little costumes dedicated to themselves. And this all assumes that Mii Costume guys, costumes are highly accurate for the next 4 waves; and we rarely get a costume outside of it. Thus, with patterns it's safe to say at this point the mii costume list is most likely not true. That is, unless it's factoring in hypothetical bonus waves or if we start getting 7 costumes; or if Square isn't purely Square.
 
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Musubi

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I say this time and time again, but I personally feel Sora isn't the best pick for Smash. Kingdom Hearts is a massively popular franchise and Sora is one of those characters that would demolish the internet, but I just think if Sora were to get included, he wouldn't represent the Kingdom Hearts franchise well at all. Disney plays such a huge role in Kingdom Hearts, and obviously because of the no video game characters rule, that Disney stuff would have to be omitted, and Disney is one of the most important factors about Kingdom Hearts. I do acknowledge the OC's in the Kingdom Hearts franchise as well, but I don't see them as being as important as the Disney characters, and again, I feel it wouldn't be good Kingdom Hearts representation without the Disney content.

Lara Croft is a character I do agree belongs in Smash, and if it does happen, I won't be mad at all and I will completely understand that inclusion since she is the most iconic female video game protagonist. But I just feel like Tomb Raider doesn't have the best history with Nintendo. If Lara Croft were to get in, her inclusion would be just because she is iconic, and not because of her history with Nintendo. I am someone who does believe if you are a third-party character, you must at least have some sort of history with Nintendo. Now I do realize their are some Tomb Raider games on Nintendo systems, but none of the main series games, to my knowledge, have ever seen the light of day on a Nintendo system.

Now comparing these characters to Geno. Yes, Geno isn't iconic at all in the grand scheme of things and he was just in one game from almost 25 years ago, but Geno would be the character that would best represent Nintendo and Square Enix's relationship. I highly recommend watching papagenos papagenos 's "Why Geno?" video. Its an old video so you may have to do some searching, but in that video, he explains the importance of Geno and why people want to see him included. To sum it up, basically Nintendo and Square had an incredibly strong relationship back in the mid 90's and together, they made the first ever Mario RPG, Super Mario RPG. The game didn't do too well since the game was released close to the end of the SNES's lifespan and the fact that the N64 was literally about to release a month after the game came out, but the game didn't do terribly bad either.

Anyways, Nintendo and Square had a falling out when the N64 was about to release. Square was hoping Nintendo would use discs so that they could make cutscenes for their games, but Nintendo still ended up using cartridges for the N64. As such, Nintendo and Square's relationship practically ended and Square started to work more so with Sony to publish games for the PlayStation, and they released Final Fantasy VII, aka their most critically acclaimed video game of all time. This is a big reason why people want to see Geno, because he represents the early years of Nintendo and Square's relationship.

And to top it all off, he is a character from a Mario RPG, and I think we could really use some Mario RPG representation, especially Super Mario RPG considering the game's lack of representation, for obvious reasons.

Don't worry, you won't be trolled just as long as your respectful and it is a very commonly asked question. I just hope this post sums it up for you and I hope you understand just why exactly people want Geno included and why he should get included.
I've seen this take from you about Sora, and I have to say as someone who has Kingdom Hearts as their all-time favorite video game series, this just isn't an accurate representation of the series. The original KH characters are far more important to the series than the Disney characters. I'm fairly certain that almost all Sora fans would think he and the KH series would be represented fine without Disney stuff. I would actually prefer if Sora came with no Disney content.
 

OptimisticStrifer

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I doubt Mii Costume Guy's list is real; at least for anything past Terry. He didn't mention Sans, and let's give him some leeway and say he did predict Terry's SPIRTS. After that all he's gotten right is Cuphead (which was the safest bet ever after Sans), and you don't need a leaker to tell you that.

Saying he got Byleth's alts right, when he never specified such a thing is such a huge leap of faith. "Oh yeah, he actually didn't know the character but he knew all the alts that they had" is frankly stupid. If we're giving him that much leeway for error, what's to say that he didn't actually mean characters like Gooigi are even mii costumes? "Oh yeah, he wasn't guessing a Gooigi mii costume; he actually guessed a Gooigi SPIRIT". And eventually we'll jump into "Yeah, he didn't guess 2B or Arle mii costumes; but he actually was guessing them as Fighter spirits".

He didn't guess Terry's WAVE or Byleth's or Min-Min's or Steve's. And again, the last costume he got right was Cuphead; who was one of the most speculated/predicted Mii Costumes out there.

Gooigi: The perfect time to show him off would have been with Min Min or Byleth; another first party character. Though granted another 1st party character is possible.

Joanna Dark: Should've been shown off with Steve; unless Master Chief is in the same pass. A bonus wave may happen, but lol if Mii costume guy is leaking costumes releasing after 2021.

2B/Mallow/Smithy: Mallow and Smithy may come with Geno, sure. I doubt 2B would though; considering her popularity currently I'm pretty sure Square would ask a exorbitant sum to license her, or not at all. She's either a character that's in as a fighter, or not at all. If Geno gets in, the costumes he'll get are just likely going to be Mallow/Smithy/old Geno costume/Chocobo. 2B currently has a less chance to get costumed than Geno.

Hollow Knight/Kris: How would they even know that these costumes are coming in the same wave? The only connection that they share is that they're indies, and unless we get an indie character I doubt that they would come together. Kris/Hollow Knight aren't even linked with any company relations or anything. And this isn't a scenario with him knowing Banjo's costumes, because Banjo was at the very least immediately next.

Arle Nadja: Arle has been a big request in Japan since Smash 4, and Puyo Puyo is decently popular in Japan; along with a pretty long legacy too. I doubt that they'd negotiate for her rights as a mii costume after so long, unless she's coming with other SEGA content/costumes; but there are no hints towards the likes of those. It's important to note that SEGA also always releases their costumes in pairs too; Joker came with 2 protags, and 2 mascots. Knuckles and Tails, and Akira and Jacky also always released together. This indicates that if Arle is coming as a costume, she's likely coming with another Puyo Puyo costume too.

Ms. Pac-Man:
I may be wrong on this one, but isn't Namco in sore terms with the character currently? I swear she gets barely used by them anymore, and a good portion of that is likely due to copyrights (or so I think I've heard).

There are a couple more like the Sony associated character, Cadence, Ori? (did Mii costume guy say that?).

The important thing is that unless some of these are meant to come as "bonus" waves; that getting all of them is unlikely (not impossible) in Fighters Pass 2 anyways.
If Square-Enix's wave is still purely Square-Enix; then there are 12 non-Square Enix costumes hinted in the list (also assuming that the Lloyd and MH costumes return regardless of a promotion). So far the maximum number of costumes in a wave is 6, and only Joker and Steve had that many. On average it's 5 costumes per character.

Assuming Square-Enix come with their own characters like they always do; then they take away 4-6 costumes off a hypothetical 18-22 costume "limit". That leaves us with 12 remaining costumes to add in with 14-18 costumes in total. Technically possible, but I doubt it. The presence of even one company with a big wave dedicated to themselves, mostly kills the entire list; unless all the companies turn out to be like Byleth/Banjo or MinMin; and have none to little costumes dedicated to themselves. With patterns, it's safe to say at this point the mii costume list is most likely not true. That is, unless it's factoring in hypothetical bonus waves or if we start getting 7 costumes.
Why would Kris and Hollow Knight need a indie character? Sans didnt. Unless sans undertale has some secret tie to Microsoft I'm not aware of
 
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