Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

[Firox]

Wait, wait, wait a second here. How are we so sure that Crash and Dante are getting in? I know there's a lot of RUMORS about Crash, but why are we suddenly so confident that he's inevitable now?

 

[Droodle]

Regarding the Granblue stuff, given how indies have been treated, I wouldn't worry about it.

Regarding Granblue, Cygames isn't really an indie company. The company is around 15x bigger than the likes of SNK, and around half as big as Square-Enix. IDK what a Western comparison to them would be, probably Blizzard (not counting Activision)? But the indie excuse doesn't really work for them.

I doubt Katalina is in, and I can't really see Granblue getting anything more than a Spirit Event though.

Sure!

Usually when something internal leaks, especially publicly in a way that anyone can see it; it gets posted literally everywhere, even if it's illegal. All this leak has backing it up is some people saying that something leaked and someone said I can trust it. Crash can still happen, but this is barely anything noteworthy.

Given that the Tales series is extremely popular in Japan, Lloyd might be that pick

I think Lloyd can still get in, and he has a pretty solid shot honestly; but I don't really think he'd be the "Japanese pick". Tales characters aren't super requested for Smash over there, and most of Lloyd's Smash fanbase lies in the West. When I think of a character that'll be a "Japanese" pick in the same way as Banjo was a "Western pick" or Geno might be; I think of characters like Arle, Reimu, Saber, and to a lesser extent MH/Rex/2B/Dante etc (just because those characters do have significant push in the West too). They do lean heavily in favor of more JP requests most of the time, so I dunno; I can't see a pass with Lloyd, Geno, Master Chief/Doomguy, Crash etc all being the next 4 characters. But who knows maybe they break the usual typical trends this time around.

My best guess is (This literally changes every single day):

• Geno
• Lloyd/Dante/Hayabusa
• Rex/Crash
• Promotional 1st party character from a new game (If Rex doesn't get in, I lean towards XC 3.)

I have a bad feeling if Geno isn't next and wasn't one of the originally planned E3 reveals, he is either last or he isn't in at all. I fear we will be on this crazy ride all the way towards the end guys.

Yeah, that's where I am right now. I feel as though if Geno isn't next, then even if the costumes haven't returned; I'll start leaning towards another Square Enix character instead (something like Bravely).

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Yeah, that's where I am right now. I feel as though if Geno isn't next, then even if the costumes haven't returned; I'll start leaning towards another Square Enix character instead (something like Bravely).

Though I won't abandon Geno no matter what happens, I would be happy with Sephiroth or 2B if they got in instead. Though I would still prefer Geno.

 

[MattX20]

So, I love fiddling around with my day counter app and I wanted to show you guys something:

The days between Min Min and Steve's release: 106 days

The days left to complete Season 2 after Steve is released: 444 days

That's 444 days to complete and release 4 more characters. To put this in perspective:

The days between Mewtwo and Bayo's release: 308 days

The days between Plant and Byleth's release: 361 days

Keep in mind that Sakurai and co still managed to release two characters under the extreme conditions of a pandemic, with those two characters being some of the most technical in the entire game.

Plus, the gap between reveals and releases for Min Min and Steve was 3 months give or take a week or so, and the implied pattern could end up with FP8 revealed in December and released in January, FP9 releases in April and so forth

 

[Fatmanonice]

Wait, wait, wait a second here. How are we so sure that Crash and Dante are getting in? I know there's a lot of RUMORS about Crash, but why are we suddenly so confident that he's inevitable now?

I honestly don't think too much has changed but there is sort of the stark reality that there's now two Western characters in Smash and they're both owned by Microsoft. Ironically, the other big Western character, Doom Guy, is now owned by Microsoft too so Crash kind of runs away with it now.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Its hard for me to shake the sense that Square and Capcom will both end up with characters in Fighter's Pass 2. Don't know which ones, but have a strong selection of fighters to still choose from.

As far as the former, its hard for me to really say with certainly who that is. Sora has his own rumors about talks not progressing, its hard to imagine the integrity of 2B's design being maintained in Smash (to mention the lack of any Nintendo history with Nier or even Drakengard), Sephiroth would be double dipping from the same game which is rare for third parties outside Echos, Lara Croft lacks the more significant popularity in Japan, and Crono is liked but lacking the same contemporary legacy of others. And Geno's factors have been addressed ad nauseam elsewhere.

Definitely feels like a roll of the dice with SE, though I've got my fingers crossed for the Star Savior or Terra Branford.

 

[Firox]

I honestly don't think too much has changed but there is sort of the stark reality that there's now two Western characters in Smash and they're both owned by Microsoft. Ironically, the other big Western character, Doom Guy, is now owned by Microsoft too so Crash kind of runs away with it now.

Ah, I see. So basically it's a very probable assumption but we still don't have any hard evidence? That's what I figured. I just wanted to be sure I wasn't missing anything critical.

 

[Vector Victor]

So what was the deal with all the Genoposting back in July? If Steve was next, why would they be posting Geno?

Assuming Geno is coming to the game (which I am still in the air about) was it more of a priority for Nintendo to keep Steve a secret since it would be a huge deal and Steve would be a better character to incentivize holiday Switch purchases?

Its possible Nintendo wanted Steve to be under wraps as much as possible (and even Minecraft content getting leaked two years ago worked out for them since nothing at the time came of it so people later dismissed it, and many thought with Banjo-Kazooie in, Steve was off the table). Steve is a big deal, so they would want that to be hidden until the reveal.

But there doesn't seem to be any explanation for the July Geno Posting. It was random, done by several people around the same time and literally nothing came of it as there wasn't any Smash news after that. In fact, ironically, that was one of the few months with ZERO Smash news, not even a time where Sakurai was recording a character showcase. So it made no sense,came out of the blue and was then forgotten soon after.

It feels more like people were messing with the fanbase.

 

[mynameisBlade]

I'm going with the "not getting a character until the end of January" assuming the time gap between Min Min and Steve stays the same. That'd make much more sense leading us to January of 2022 as well.

 

[Peepo T. Skeleton]

The Genobois waiting for Geno news:

 

[Pakky]

Pakky It’s great to here from you again! The newcomer stock icons thread was one of the first threads I ever posted in on here.

I just have a question for you if you’re ok with answering it, what’s your reason for believing Cacomallow is real? I’m curious because of your experience with 3D modeling.

Thanks, man much appreciated.

From my experience and from what has come out or rather failed to come in the past months I have this to say about CacoMallow.

No one can replicate it.

If there were a group of individuals or one lone guy who could mod the game and recreate the leak to a tee I would believe its fake.

No one has done that. Not one person, I find that odd.

Some say that the Mallow hat could be a DQ Slime hat... Eh... Not sure about that.

The geometry between Silme and Mallow is similar however The Slime Hat is a teardrop shape and Mallow is clearly not. So one couldn't just retexture one to be the other. There's also the matter of both of them seemingly being able to jiggle which would involve the use of spring bones when rigging which I have no idea how you would get one to act like the other.

Also just in terms of the quality of the texture and the models a professional is at work. Many have come close with the Cacodemon but like what papagenos pointed out all those months back none have been spot on.

That's all I got.

 

[DanganZilla5]

I haven't been on here in a while. So we are still speculating to this day and yet still no new Geno content in sight. So after everything that has happened, how do you guys feel about Geno's chances? After the two characters shown off in this pass, the fact that the Smash 4 Mii costumes have slowly returned, after Square got two spirit events somewhat recently, and the fact that it's Mario's 35h anniversary. How do you all stand on Geno now?

Personally not a lot has changed in my eyes. I still give him a 50% chance of happening because his long-term fan demand does give him an edge over other Square characters who tend to have other things going for them, but at the same time they got their own big obstacles to deal with. Generally I'm confident in Geno's chances as Smash Ultimate has been the stuff of dreams and we still have yet to have a Banjo type character in this pass. But I'm still concerned about the fact that the Smash 4 Mii costumes have been slowly brought back and big players in the speculation scene like Heihachi and Travis Touchdown are now dead.

It has been quite a journey, and the last couple days have shaken up speculation a lot.

 

[Pakky]

Warning Huge post ahead.



Here is a post from December 2018 where I explain the situation:

Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

Did you guys really do 30 pages since the thread broke melee'e record? Lol

smashboards.com

And here is one from the summer of 2019:

Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

make sure you liked the original post is what I was told to do! Kind of a questionable practice if you ask me...

smashboards.com

Regarding the Granblue stuff, given how indies have been treated, I wouldn't worry about it.



Okay, THIS is fascinating because this is the first time I've heard of Byleth being heard this far back and lines up with several people in my circle hearing about Fire Emblem Three Houses stuff last October but discarding it because they personally didn't believe it.




Yeah. I do think we're going to get some "Min Min" like waves, especially since we still have a whopping 18 Smash 4 character Amiibos that haven't been reprinted yet for Ultimate for unknown reasons.



The Sol Badguy stuff came up last summer and, since then, Guilty Gear has come to Switch and we did get both a River City Ransom Collection and a spirit event celebrating it. Arc Systems is so far only one of three third parties (the others being Capcom and Square) to get special spirit events so I feel like more Arc Systems content is coming, even if it's just a costume.



Okay, the big one...

1. Ubisoft has never come up in a serious capacity in my almost two years doing. I know this bums a lot of people out but that's just how it's been. I'm also of the mind that Ubisoft getting spirits and Mii costumes before a character is bad news bears too. If Ubisoft is getting anything substantial, it's something that has evaded literally everyone.

2. There is and I've honestly been warning Doom Guy fans about it since last November. Doom Guy has never come up in a serious capacity. Cacomallow brought him up as a possibility but the people in my circle quickly discounted the idea. Several people in my circle had heard Bethesda was getting content outside of Cacodemon and most of us assumed a character. One of my guys even mentioned Fallout and proof of this is here:

Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

well dang it I woke up earlier than I wanted to. No biggy, only a hour left. I just saw Verge's list and I personally don't believe it. If it's real though, that significantly boosts the chances of Travis and Master Chief. Especially Travis as he would fit with the theme of underwhelming final...

smashboards.com

Every time DOOM has come up, even the developers have said that talks never went anywhere serious and I want to say there's been at least two interviews (one from earlier this year and one from last year) where some of the head developers have slapped down the idea. After with what happened with Travis after me warning people for almost two years given SUDA's comments before the 2018 VGAs and after E3 2019, I don't think DOOM Guy is happening and the evidence is significantly stronger for Chief, especially now that Microsoft literally owns Zenimax and Chief's costume was MIA yesterday.

3. Here's a full rundown I did on Waluigi last November:

Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

It's definitely the former and kind of why "Jesus, not everything is tied to Smash..." has become a meme among insiders. People will hear things and then months later they'll hear about it being tied to Smash but still two separate things. For example, Dante. Dante was first heard in the early...

smashboards.com

TL;DR: Everyone has heard him, virtually nobody believes him but he keeps coming up. Everybody from serious insider journalists to crackheads living in the dumpster behind your local Taco Bell have heard Waluigi at some point since 2018.


Okay, I think that's everyone...

Thanks man!


Okay guy so let me know if I'm keeping up.


Pass 2

Geno
Crash
Lloyd
Master Cheif

Pass 3

Dixie Kong

Waluigi
(I don't know the last two)

 

[Deleted member]

I feel that Geno is more realistic than a lot of people think. He maybe the Banjo of this Fighters Pass. Geno has good history with the Smash fanbase being a popular request that Nintendo and Sakurai eventually settled for a costume. I think it’s a good suspect sign that his Mii costume was missing for over a year. I think Square maybe OK with him playable. SMRPG was a major game between Nintendo and Square.

 

[CopperKoopa]

Since we're all doing this, the rest of Pass 2 IMHO looks like...

-Geno
-Dante/Rex
-Crash/Dante
-Lloyd/Crash/Namco character

Hayabusa is Mii costumed. So are the Monster Hunters. And there will NOT be bonus characters, but we will get bonus costumes and stages.

Should we start a betting pool, anyone?

 

[Super10ZX]

I haven't been on here in a while. So we are still speculating to this day and yet still no new Geno content in sight. So after everything that has happened, how do you guys feel about Geno's chances? After the two characters shown off in this pass, the fact that the Smash 4 Mii costumes have slowly returned, after Square got two spirit events somewhat recently, and the fact that it's Mario's 35h anniversary. How do you all stand on Geno now?

Personally not a lot has changed in my eyes. I still give him a 50% chance of happening because his long-term fan demand does give him an edge over other Square characters who tend to have other things going for them, but at the same time they got their own big obstacles to deal with. Generally I'm confident in Geno's chances as Smash Ultimate has been the stuff of dreams and we still have yet to have a Banjo type character in this pass. But I'm still concerned about the fact that the Smash 4 Mii costumes have been slowly brought back and big players in the speculation scene like Heihachi and Travis Touchdown are now dead.

It has been quite a journey, and the last couple days have shaken up speculation a lot.

My personal thoughts on Geno's chances haven't really changed since Steve, aside from stuff on the rumor side of things that relied on Geno being Challenger Pack 7 being kinda dead or in the water now. I don't worry about the Mii Costumes slowly coming back as a sign against Geno. They had the perfect opportunity to kill him off with Hero, and they didn't do it. And considering Square seems to like having their paid content all centered around themselves, I don't see the Geno and Chocobo costumes coming back with anyone who isn't a different Square-Enix character. And Square obviously has tons of options for characters, but I personally continue to see Geno as the most likely one.

 

[pinshadow]

Might as well lay out my predictions. For contrast here's where I was in May with some stuff that's changed since then...

Spoiler: May

and where I am now.

Trimmed out the fluff and narrowed down who I think is in quite a bit since then.

TL:DR is First Parties are very likely out minus promotional characters/one exception with Steve being revealed just based on how past DLC cycles were handled, and I'm very confident on Geno, Dante, and Crash with no goddamn idea who the hell the missing slot is. For a pointlessly long breakdown...

Spoiler: Steve, Geno, Dante, Crash

• Steve : Fully expected another Microsoft Rep, more suprised they went with Steve over Chief and that it is this early in the Pass. I just thought they would go with the ridiculous shock value of Chief over Minecraft's general popularity/sales/being on Switch. But I guess Minecraft carries it's own shock value and was rising in popularity again when Nintendo was picking characters last year, and had discussions going back 5+ years. Anyway, shows Nintendo is more than willing to play ball with western companies unlike before, especially with him being 2nd, making me feel like another one is an inevitability at this rate.
• Geno : This is the Geno thread, you know why I think he's in. Missing Mii Costumes, a growing pile of coincidences and rumors, high fan support, I feel it.
• Dante : Remember what I said about Minecraft having a resurgance in popularity in 2019? Gee, if only there was some series Capcom had that had it's most well recieved game in a decade that did really well that released last year, and only if said franchise also didn't happen to be ported to Switch over the past year as well. I'm fairly certain we are getting another Capcom rep, and I will say that, similar to the Chief vs Steve debate, I wonder if Nintendo would decide to go with the more generally popular and Nintendo-centric Monster Hunter over the more requested and headling making Dante, but I still lean towards him.
• Crash : While I'm locked in on the last 2 being 8 and 9 respectively, I'm less sure on Crash's position in the Pass. He could either be 5 or the closer and it really depends on who 6 is honestly. Point is, with Ubisoft and Bethesda out and Microsoft getting their slot this pass (?), Crash really feels like he's standing alone as the most obvious Western inclusion at this point. He's super popular, been having a HUGE resurgance over the past several years, Activision is trying their damnedest to make him an absolute icon again, and they have a better relationship with Nintendo then you might think. I'll be pretty floored if he isn't in, even more than a Capcom rep honestly.

Spoiler: MYSTERY BOX

So I'm stuck in this frustrating situation where I'm locked in for 3 out of the 4 characters left, but have ZERO idea who the hell the last one is. I just don't. There's several options I can think of but I feel like all of them have holes. I'm still not buying the idea of more characters past Pass 2 but SOMETHING feels off about this.

• Namco : Going to be real here, Power of Six was the strongest evidence Namco had, and we've had 2 out of the 3 costumes for them come with other characters now, so that's kind of out. I'm really starting to feel like Lloyd is getting the shaft again, but I guess we'll see.
• Master Chief : Did Microsoft already get a character? Yep. However, Master Chief is genuinely the only character I could ever see them double dipping for a company in the same Game/DLC cycle for. I mean, it's MASTER CHIEF. And the fact that Banjo/Steve came with no Microsoft/Rare costumes but Steve did come with a few Minecraft costumes is throwing me for a loop. SOMETHING feels off about him.
• Waluigi : I know I said I ruled non-promotional first-parties out, but Waluigi is the one exception in my eyes. I mean, it's Waluigi, he kinda explains himself. It's an enigma, heard by everybody, believed by nobody. He's the one character I could see them saving for last JUST BECAUSE it's Waluigi. There's no way they don't see his popularity, it's just a question of whether they act on it like Banjo.
• Promotion First Party : Smash does tend to save the worst for last, we know this, and we've seen before with Corrin and Byleth that promotional characters come later in the Pass by default just because of how they're developed. I lean towards it being Sylux due the fact he conspicuously never got a base-game spirit but it's Nintendo, they could pick anything to shill.

But again, I still don't really feel rock solid in any of them. 6 feels damn weird right now and I don't really know how to pin it down without seeing the other characters first.

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

Rn I feel like I have 2 different timelines: normal and pass three timeline

Normal:
Geno
Crash
Dante
Lloyd

Pass three
Geno
Lloyd
Ryu
Dante

and then pass 3 has Wah, Crash, Master Chief and a wild card (rex/dixie/reimu/monokuma/ gordon freeman/ leisure suit larry)

 

[YsDisciple]

Just to be sure, amiibo release dates have coincided or been approximate to Smash character reveals, or releases in the past?

Was just thinking now that, albeit we just got the reveal for CP 7, the approximate reveal for CP 8 should be around January 2021. However, considering that CP 7 and CP 8 were supposed to be the E3 2020 reveals, and also noting that DLC fighters/Challenger Packs are typically worked in groups of three, what if there is the possibility that we do in fact get CP 8 announced before 2020 is over (perhaps November, or December)? In addition to Smash, Nintendo perhaps has a couple of more surprises (titles) to announce before the year is over.

 

[pinshadow]

Just to be sure, amiibo release dates have coincided or been approximate to Smash character reveals, or releases in the past?

Was just thinking now that, albeit we just got the reveal for CP 7, the approximate reveal for CP 8 should be around January 2021. However, considering that CP 7 and CP 8 were supposed to be the E3 2020 reveals, and also noting that DLC fighters/Challenger Packs are typically worked in groups of three, what if there is the possibility that we do in fact get CP 8 announced before 2020 is over (perhaps November, or December)? In addition to Smash, Nintendo perhaps has a couple of more surprises (titles) to announce before the year is over.

It's releases, but the last 3 characters have all been announced alongside their release so it muddies things a bit.

 

[MarioRaccoon]

I think that with this covid19 situation, they want to announce the fighters next to their release date.

Like 15 days between the first trailer and the actual release. So, its likely we will have to wait until january 2021 for CP8. Please, have patience. Expect 0 smash news for november and december. I suspect that Nintendo will use TGA to announced their march game (MH Rise is published worldwide by Capcom so it doesn’t count, my hopes is for a new 2D Metroid) and possible a new third party collaboration for 2021 (like Bravely Default 2 or Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3).

For Q1 they already have SM3DW DX and potentially Bravely 2 and/or New Pokemon Snap, add a new game and you have a good lineup for the start of 2021 (or the ending of FY 2020-21).

 

[Peepo T. Skeleton]

Rn I feel like I have 2 different timelines: normal and pass three timeline

Normal:
Geno
Crash
Dante
Lloyd

Pass three
Geno
Lloyd
Ryu
Dante

and then pass 3 has Wah, Crash, Master Chief and a wild card (rex/dixie/reimu/monokuma/ gordon freeman/ leisure suit larry)

Now you've got me wanting Leisure Suit Larry for Smash just so I can see the looks of utter confusion on everyone's faces.

 

[TooManyToastahs]

I’ve got a friend who really likes the green space marines (He’s more partial to Master Chief but would still be just as pleased with Doomguy), so every time something hopeful is mentioned about one of the two it always makes me happy. Back when Cacomallow was getting a ton of cool fanart we used to refer to eachother as “gunbros” (Lame name, I know).

Geno’s got a lot in his corner, so I’m not too worried about him at the moment, but I really hope at least one of those green space dudes shows up for my bro’s sake.

 

[Peepo T. Skeleton]

I’ve got a friend who really likes the green space marines (He’s more partial to Master Chief but would still be just as pleased with Doomguy), so every time something hopeful is mentioned about one of the two it always makes me happy. Back when Cacomallow was getting a ton of cool fanart we used to refer to eachother as “gunbros” (Lame name, I know).

Geno’s got a lot in his corner, so I’m not too worried about him at the moment, but I really hope at least one of those green space dudes shows up for my bro’s sake.

View attachment 288381​

For two characters that look somewhat similar I could totally see Chief and Doomguy playing completely different from one another.

They are pretty interchangeable in terms of which one I want though. I'd love it if either of them got in.

 

[MattX20]

We need to remember this point regarding the remaining Smash Fighter Pass amiibos: they were only confirmed for a 2021 release, not a specific date. Remember, the Incineroar, Chrom, Dark Samus, and Richter amiibos were all revealed together side by side, but they didn't release on the same wave together. It's entirely possible the next wave of amiibos would be just Banjo and Terry and Byleth gets released at a later date

 

[Peepo T. Skeleton]

We need to remember this point regarding the remaining Smash Fighter Pass amiibos: they were only confirmed for a 2021 release, not a specific date. Remember, the Incineroar, Chrom, Dark Samus, and Richter amiibos were all revealed together side by side, but they didn't release on the same wave together. It's entirely possible the next wave of amiibos would be just Banjo and Terry and Byleth gets released at a later date

Yeah I'm expecting Byleth to release either on their own or with some Smash 4 reprints. Could also come with Min min, idk.

Speaking of DLC Amiibos, I was at the store today and I actually saw the new Joker and Hero Amiibos. Joker was super tempting with his blue flame stand, but I decided to just save my money for Guh-Huh and maybe Trucker Ken.

 

[Enigma735]

I haven't been on here in a while. So we are still speculating to this day and yet still no new Geno content in sight. So after everything that has happened, how do you guys feel about Geno's chances? After the two characters shown off in this pass, the fact that the Smash 4 Mii costumes have slowly returned, after Square got two spirit events somewhat recently, and the fact that it's Mario's 35h anniversary. How do you all stand on Geno now?

Personally not a lot has changed in my eyes. I still give him a 50% chance of happening because his long-term fan demand does give him an edge over other Square characters who tend to have other things going for them, but at the same time they got their own big obstacles to deal with. Generally I'm confident in Geno's chances as Smash Ultimate has been the stuff of dreams and we still have yet to have a Banjo type character in this pass. But I'm still concerned about the fact that the Smash 4 Mii costumes have been slowly brought back and big players in the speculation scene like Heihachi and Travis Touchdown are now dead.

It has been quite a journey, and the last couple days have shaken up speculation a lot.

Geno's chances are still incredibly strong right now. Even though he didn't end up being CP7 like we all thought he was, that still doesn't change the fact that their is still plenty of hints and evidence that could point to his inclusion. The only pieces of "evidence" that are deconfirmed is the 7 theory and the Mario tournament event in November that COULD have tied in to a new Mario character, unless we get another reveal next month, which I highly doubt.

CacoMallow is still up in the air, but many of us are of the opinion that leaks can take a long time until they come in to fruition and we have no idea how Nintendo handles Mii Outfits, so its very likely that this leak could turn out like Steve and Minecraft content, where it can leak months and years before they actually get confirmed. And everything else according to The ListTM is still in play.

 

[Vector Victor]

Yeah I'm expecting Byleth to release either on their own or with some Smash 4 reprints. Could also come with Min min, idk.

Speaking of DLC Amiibos, I was at the store today and I actually saw the new Joker and Hero Amiibos. Joker was super tempting with his blue flame stand, but I decided to just save my money for Guh-Huh and maybe Trucker Ken.

I got Joker and its really well designed, and the blue flame for the stand is really good (MUCH better than pee stick Link). Compared to Joker, Hero just looks like 'And I'm here too.'

 

[MattX20]

Geno's chances are still incredibly strong right now. Even though he didn't end up being CP7 like we all thought he was, that still doesn't change the fact that their is still plenty of hints and evidence that could point to his inclusion. The only pieces of "evidence" that are deconfirmed is the 7 theory and the Mario tournament event in November that COULD have tied in to a new Mario character, unless we get another reveal next month, which I highly doubt.

CacoMallow is still up in the air, but many of us are of the opinion that leaks can take a long time until they come in to fruition and we have no idea how Nintendo handles Mii Outfits, so its very likely that this leak could turn out like Steve and Minecraft content, where it can leak months and years before they actually get confirmed. And everything else according to The ListTM is still in play.

I'm not willing to throw out the Mario tournament yet as far as evidence goes. Recall that both MinMin and Steve were revealed after Smash tournaments that were prominently announced on Nintendo's social media concluded. Until there's proof of no Smash announcements or reveals after the Mario tournament concludes, I don't think it's wise to toss it to the side just yet

 

[Enigma735]

I'm not willing to throw out the Mario tournament yet as far as evidence goes. Recall that both MinMin and Steve were revealed after Smash tournaments that were prominently announced on Nintendo's social media concluded. Until there's proof of no Smash announcements or reveals after the Mario tournament concludes, I don't think it's wise to toss it to the side just yet

As I said, I did mention the fact that their could be a reveal before that tournament, but I personally find it unlikely, especially this soon after Steve. Would love to be wrong though, but I guess that's just my pessimism striking through.

 

[MattX20]

As I said, I did mention the fact that their could be a reveal before that tournament, but I personally find it unlikely, especially this soon after Steve. Would love to be wrong though, but I guess that's just my pessimism striking through.

Hence why I said after. The tournament is scheduled for November/December, so a December reveal isn't unlikely going by how we've had December reveals happen before and it lines up with the 3 month reveal/release gap observed with Min Min and Steve

 

[Nazyrus]

I think Lloyd can still get in, and he has a pretty solid shot honestly; but I don't really think he'd be the "Japanese pick". Tales characters aren't super requested for Smash over there, and most of Lloyd's Smash fanbase lies in the West. When I think of a character that'll be a "Japanese" pick in the same way as Banjo was a "Western pick" or Geno might be; I think of characters like Arle, Reimu, Saber, and to a lesser extent MH/Rex/2B/Dante etc (just because those characters do have significant push in the West too). They do lean heavily in favor of more JP requests most of the time, so I dunno; I can't see a pass with Lloyd, Geno, Master Chief/Doomguy, Crash etc all being the next 4 characters. But who knows maybe they break the usual typical trends

Symphonia is the one in the series that has made most crossovers of all the titles, specially in japan only games like mobile games. Recently we just got ANOTHER of those, Symphonia x Symphogear, nevermind all the crossovers in the past. Lloyd might not be THE top 1 popular tales character, but he is by no means far from being one of the most marketed faces of the whole series in multiple times regardless. They love him quite a bit over there. He is widely beloved on both the east and the west, people just for some reason keep saying it's not the case while it's right there in the faces of everyone

 

[Mr. Peepee]

My predictions for characters are (in no order)
Geno
Crash
Doomguy
A lame first party that will definitely disappoint, or a character that will blow everyone away.

 

[Vector Victor]

Please just left Geno be fighter 78 so we can all move on and enjoy the reveals going forward without doubt or dread.

 

[Let Geno Smash]

Ok, many of you are talking about predictions, uh? Here we go. (I couldn't add any photo, I had a photo which I found on 4Chan which had all my predictions but the load fails, also I not trying to predict the order):
-Geno (): Obviously I expect the Star Warrior as a future fighter. He surviving 7 {Yeah 7} Mii costume waves when he could perfectly be one with Hero [Tbh I got omega scared when Sakurai shown the Mii Costume Bonus for Buying the Pass 2], a lot of evidence like Mii Costume Guy, SMRPG Remake or Sequel Rumors, July Genoposting, Cacomallow, etc.
-Crash: Steve's inclusion don't make me more than realize that Ultimate is game that won't happen twice. Series like Mario, DKC, Zelda, Sonic, Pokemon, Metal Gear, Megaman, Pacman, Street Fighter, Final Fantasy, Castlevania, Dragon Quest, Banjo Kazooie, The King Of Fighters or Minecraft. All this big name series are here so I doubt Crash would lose the boat. Also he would shill the inevitable Crash 4 Switch port and I am #TeamReal on the 5 Years Activision Document Plans on the Crash series (It is just like Mii Costume list, that can't just be a lucky guess).
-Lloyd: As with Geno, is just to weird to not have he as a Mii Costume, all the clues Nazyrus mention for a potential TGA Lloyd reveal and I just doubt that Ultimate will end without a new Namco Rep
-Miscellaneous: I just don't know who expect left: Hayabusa, Rex, Dante, Sol Badguy, Reimu, a new Zelda, DK, Pokemon, Kirby or even Metroid Rep, Master Chief, Sora, Lara Croft, 2B, Crono, DoomSlayer, an Actual AT Upgrade. I just think something we don't expect is coming

 

[gzmee]

i dont know whats up with "july genoposting" but given how long it takes for negotiations to happen and for characters to be made i think july would b when talk of the genester in inner circles would start if he was the next fighter. just my hot take

 

[TheBeastHimself]

Still hoping for Geno next! I want Geno and Doomguy on this pass, even though I highly, highly disbelieve Cacomallow because I will not be strung along like a helpless child such as when the Grinch leak was hot off the presses.

I'm not sure how this thread stands on Cacomallow as of now, but I thought it'd be an interesting point of discussion.

I just think it could've been so easily faked. Like I said, the Grinch leak had most people believing and we know how that turned out. Same with Artsy Omni's Rayman leak from Smash 4, which was an actual video, and that turned out fake.

People can create models so easily, and I feel like we would have seen these costumes by now.

 

[Enigma735]

I already stated my predictions earlier today, but I will explain in greater detail as to why I think these characters are the most likely rn.

8: Geno - Ya'll ready know why he is likely.
9: Crash - Fatmanonice gave me a lot of hope for Crash. I do expect AT LEAST one more Western character since it really seems like Nintendo is trying to build relationships with their Western partners, and ever since the N. Sane Trilogy, Activision has treated Crash like a gaming icon again, and Crash's comeback was so monumental that it would be a missed opportunity NOT to get Crash included, to fulfill the 90's gaming rivalry in Smash. Also, if that leaked Activision document means anything, its a solid indicator that Crash is coming. I also pointed out in my latest theory that Activision is so far the only major third party company to not have any representation in Smash at all, so now would be the perfect time to do so.
10: Lloyd Irving - Lloyd would be the Japanese pick in my eyes, being a character that would most appeal to the East opposed to the West, considering Tales's wide popularity in Japan. I say this everytime, but its still so strange that Namco is developing this game, yet they still don't have a rep to themselves. While some may argue that PAC-MAN represents Namco as a whole, I feel like Tales is big enough to stand out from all the Namco representation PAC-MAN brings, especially since Tales Of is really the only Namco franchise not in Smash yet. And like with Geno, Lloyd's outfit from Smash 4 has still not returned yet, which is strange especially considering, like Geno, he is another fan-requested character to join the roster. Of course, we could get a different Tales Of protagonist instead, but back when Lloyd's outfit was revealed for Smash 4, Sakurai himself stated that if Tales were to get a character in Smash, it would have to be Lloyd. All of this together makes Lloyd a very likely character.
11: Rex - I feel like I'm the only one who predicts Rex here, but I feel you all are greatly sleeping on Rex's chances. Like with ARMS, Rex was also talked about by Sakurai stating that Xenoblade 2 was too new at the time when he was planning the roster that it just wasn't able to make the cut. We're in DLC now and since ARMS was eventually greenlit for Fighters Pass 2, I think the same can easily happen for Rex, especially considering Sakurai's love for this game. Not only that, but Xenoblade has been growing in popularity ever since 2 and has been starting to become a more flagship franchise for Nintendo. Hell, Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition was literally the "one more thing" in the September Direct last year, which is huge in my eyes. Rex may not have the most evidence in his favor, but that certainly doesn't mean he's unlikely, because if ARMS can get a rep as DLC, then so can Xenoblade 2.

So, as a recap, my final predictions for this Fighters Pass is Min Min, Steve, Geno, Crash, Lloyd, and Rex. I don't think this is too outlandish if you ask me. I also wanna give three honorable mentions to Ryu Hayabusa, Sol Badguy, and a Gen 8 Pokemon. I think these three characters all have solid chances as well, but I don't think they have as much going for them as the four I mentioned.

 

[Honest Slug]

Is there any particular reason people are hard betting on Lloyd? I used to have him in my FP2 prediction as well, but honestly the fact that all the Bandai Namco costumes have been slowly released instead of what would be more logical if Lloyd was in the game, which would be to include them with Lloyd, make me more inclined to think he isn't going to make it this time around. If there's anything I'm missing I'd be curious to see.

Anyways here's my predictions with approximate timeframes.

78: Geno. Yeah I know most of us are betting on Geno, and while I still don't think he's ultra likely, (It's about a 60/40 for me, which is still much more than I'm willing to give to most characters) the combination of suspicious takedowns and the fact that there's still a Chocobo Mii costume being held back with no sign of that Geno costume make me think Chocobo is being saved for something and that Geno will be fully playable. Either way I'm pretty confident we're at least getting a Square Enix character this pass because all these spirit events show that even after FP1 they're still in contact with Square and it makes no sense to hold off those 2 Mii costumes for so long if there wasn't something else being planned since we've had a plethora of RPG characters as DLC where it'd make thematic sense to release these costumes.

As for when he'll come out. I think we'll hear about him at The Game Awards this year alongside a Mario RPG remake and he'll release in February 2021. I know that this is a lot of ifs but these predictions are useless if you don't go at least a bit bold with things.

79: Crash. I think we'll get 2 reveals at E3 per the norm. I think one will probably release in June while the other releases in August. Frankly E3 needs at least one big hitter, and by process of elimination Crash fits the bill for me. Keep in mind I could easily see Crash and Geno swapping here, since both would be a big deal. I just think that with the 35th anniversary plans Geno was probably supposed to come out in line with that timeframe, therefore it makes more sense for Crash to come out afterwards. As for why Crash will get in, frankly I don't buy that leaked project plan, I feel like I could've guessed half that stuff in 2017. But I digress, I simply think Crash is the natural evolution of Smash's brand expansion. I think the fact that Microsoft being the first company to have 2 DLC characters in Ultimate is a sign of increased willingness to work with western third parties. With a lot of iconic Japanese franchises being in Smash, expanding to non-Microsoft western companies seems like a clear next step and Crash might be the biggest no-brainer to pick from that mindset.

80: Arle. To be honest Arle is the character that I'm most unsure about in my prediction. However, I included her for a couple of reasons. First of all I feel E3 2021 will probably resemble 2019 to a degree, one big western fan favorite and one Japanese icon, helping keep the show balanced for all audiences. Arle fits the bill as a big Japanese character. She also represents the puzzler which is a HUGE aspect of gaming history that currently doesn't have its place in Smash, I mean just look at the sales for a lot of those games. Plus I've noticed so far that FP2 has a big focus on wacky and unique movesets, with Min Min and Steve being some of the weirdest characters we've seen yet. Arle's focus on Puyo Puyo elements would certainly fit this hyper unique focus they've gone with.

81: Dante. I think we'll see our final character released in time by November or December 2021. Who though was tough to decide. I wanted to go with Rex, but in the end I backed out. The thing that made me turn my head was that Xenoblade already does have representation in Smash, and with Xenoblade 1's remake being more recent than Xenoblade 2, Shulk is actually more of a promotional character than Rex would be at this point. So with that in mind I am backing off Rex, but I'd still say he's fairly likely and could easily make it in even if he doesn't make my prediction. As for Dante I just feel like Capcom has got to get something in this pass. We still have 2 Monster Hunter costumes unaccounted for, and Imran seems to have outright poo pooed a Monster Hunter fighter. The only competition left is Phoenix Wright, who I feel just doesn't have the name recognition that Dante has, and Ace Attorney hasn't had this big push that Devil May Cry has had over the last 2 years or so. Those comments by the devs also felt super weird, like clearly they had to know those ports were coming, yet they chose that as the barrier for Dante's entry. As they say in Among Us, that's sus.

 

[HudU]

I feel like this song is pretty accurate to all of us each time we're waiting for a new fighter being announced hoping its Geno because each time he has a decent chance: