Here comes the wall, ladies 'n gents!
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Wow, I'm super surprised this never got linked onto the front page of the thread. GaMetal (I think he just goes by JohnnyAtma now?) did what was basically a tribute to SMRPG in guitar/GaMetal form. It's super sick man, check it out.
When it gets to Geno, he has almost a WWE level of oomph for a introduction.
I would give honorable mention to Sora and Crash, but I don't think they're likely spots for this round of DLC and my be used as big reveals for the next smash game (regardless if it's a port or otherwise).
My gut tells me the remaining characters are Banjo, Doomguy, Erdrick, and a true toss-up between Ryu H. and Lloyd.
What in the heck makes you think Sora isn't in the running? The longest-awaited KH titled dropped in late Jan and made a crap ton of money despite how poor quality it is, and Nomura has stated that story DLC is on it's way and rumoredly that when the DLC is done production on KH4 will start in 2020. Add in that the Secret Ending basically hints at even more Square franchises being pushed for KH's future and a possible straying from Disney content, which then puts KH in a spot where it can pseudo-advertise other Square franchises and has less issues with Disney, and you can see why Sora would be a prime-time choice for Smash DLC to strike while the KH iron is hot!
Also, on the topic of Geno being more likely than other characters, I think that most characters have a solid chance to make it and that Geno isn't more likely than anyone else...but the more I think about it, the more it seems he is more likely than Erdrick as long as Nintendo is playing their cards right.
Let's think about this real quick: what does Erdrick have going for him in all honesty? No character really has evidence or anything that 'proves' they will get a spot, so all we can do is grab things that might be a factor in why they were chosen. So Erdrick, what does he have in this regard? Well...
- Is the main character of one the most (if not THE most) successful games in Japan
- Being one of the most popular characters from one of the most beloved series in Japan
- Dragon Quest being a series that defined the genre for JRPGS
- Being from a JRPG there is a lot that can be pulled from for a moveset
- Expanding on this, Dragon Quest is known for monster taming, so this gives more potential uniqueness to Erdrick than soem other JRPGS
- Square loves to have Nintendo push the series in the West and would likely push for a Dragon Quest rep for Smash if they were in talks for another rep
- Sakurai loves Dragon Quest and specifically Dragon Quest III and Sakurai also loves Persona and both Smash Ultimate has heavy influence from Persona 5 style and Joker is our first DLC character
Notice I did not mention anything about leaks or leakers or datamines because frankly leakers are nothing concrete and are just random people saying they know something before we do and are often wrong. 'Brave' is not a point in Erdrick's favor because codenames are meant to lead you astray and mask their identity so having a codename that directly references the translation of Erdrick's name would be foolish and thus being such an obvious connection is more of a negative than a positive, but since Nintendo could have flubbed it it's a neutral point overall.
So, what does Erdrick have going against him? Well...
- Most of Smashes sales come from the West, mostly the US. Dragon Quest has only gotten a small recent boost in popularity here and still isn't nearly as big as other JRPGs, meaning a Dragon Quest rep isn't the most lucrative choice despite arguments of marketing and advertisement
- With Dragon Quest being rather small in the US, since there is no recent game that features Erdrick that has released in the West, Erdrick's familiarity in the US is extremely low, leaving it to the most die-hard fans and those in leak speculation like us, meaning that the vast majority of US gamers do not know of Erdrick
- Playing off this, it's a much more lucrative decision to pick Luminary or Slime as a Dragon Quest rep over Erdrick as they are better known in the West
- Playing off of this again, he is not a fan requested character in either the West nor the East in comparison to other picks, and Japan loves him and his game, yet they also desire choices like Banjo, Bandanna Dee and Geno, and Slime is up there but not big in their wishes whereas Erdrick seems to be an afterthought, proving that Slime would be the best choice overall if you were to pick a Dragon Quest rep
- Erdrick does not have worldwide iconic status, and Sakurai has been on record stating he is running out of character with worldwide iconic status, suggesting Sakurai is looking for those first when not looking at fan requests. This is a double against Erdrick because he has neither global iconic status nor heavy fan demand
- Erdrick's iconic weapon setup is a sword and shield, and while he has many other options, Sakurai is known for taking the core icon of the character when putting them in Smash. Sakurai has been on record stating that swordwielders are a difficult challenge to consistently make unique, and while Erdrick has a lot to pull from, it may not be enough in the eyes of Sakurai with the flood of complaints behind the archetype
- Since Erdrick has little familiarity in the US and is not a fan request across the board, his inclusion would come off as a marketing ploy by Square. Corrin was received very poorly and was the least-purchased DLC character for Smash 4 because of the combination of oversaturation from both a franchise and an archetype as well as being a character that was unknown to Western audiences as the game had not been released yet and was thus seen as a 'shill pick' despite Fire Emblem being a big series in the West and Corrin being rather unique in design. Erdrick does not benefit from being from a equally well-known series in the West but does still suffer from falling into the same archetype and have the air of being a 'shill pick' but also has the added issue of being from Square which Western audiences already have a negative opinion of
- Erdrick has more hoops to jump through and figureheads to meet with just to get himself into the game, nevermind both having a stage and music, than most character options available, meaning that more work would be done for a character that is setup to have an underwhelming release in the area of the world where you get most of your money
- Expanding on this, Sugiyama isn't the most pleasant fellow and has something against his best work getting into Western hands. While Dragon Quest XI S may in fact have gotten the orchestral music, this was an agreement reached for the main series where Sugiyama's work can shine the most, not for a crossover game where Dragon Quest and Sugiyama's work are alongside that of many other franchises that are also amazing and in a game not developed by Armour Project and not published by Square, meaning we could still have an issue getting quality Dragon Quest music for Ultimate
There may be some other talking points I missed, but I think that covers all of them. This is why videos like
Billybae10K
recent Rate Their Chances video irk me so much, because they act as if Erdrick is almost an auto-include without really analyzing the details, like how Nintendo always pushes Dragon Quest so pushing it now is nothing significant, or how most of the talk about him is just speculation and not actual fan demand of the character (and is usually the opposite, as in, we DON'T want the character). The also act as if the things above are 'evidence' towards confirming or deconfirming a character when these are all nothing but talking points that solidify nothing at all.
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I wouldn't pull an Etika because I'd be too busy crying, let's be real.
Ovaltine, we have to get brunch sometime, because we are way too in sync. It's like the ducks in ASDFmovie, only cooler and you are the only one with duck qualities.
That is, idk if we could hold a conversation other than crying profusely into our eggs Benedict once Geno is announced, but we can try nonetheless. You won't have to call me for directions either: you'll be able to hear my joyful sobs across the county.
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I don't know if it's just a bit of exhaustion with speculation and the community, but I very much so support the idea of only half the characters having anything to do with fan requests. I don't want just wish fulfillment of fans at this point. I want to see Sakurai flex his creative muscles and expand Smash with new major franchises. I think a good balance between the two and also any potential new breakout stars is important.
Holy moly, I HOPE it's just you.
Seriously, the list of character that Sakurai can pick from vs the list of fan requests is a terrifying stark difference? Remember when we thought a Style Savvy was gonna get a rep? Do you realize what would happen if Sakurai was allowed his hand to be unbridled as he reached into the void that is Nintendo characters?
Seriously though, we NEED more fan requests. Why? Because that's what sells, when you give the consumer what they want. Ultimate was advertised with the mantra "Everyone Is Here" and this brought back all the veterans who were highly requested as well as big requests like Daisy, Ridley, Chrom, Simon and King K. Rool. A friend and I did the math, and out of the 18 characters added to Ultimate, only 4 or 5 questionable in the sense of 'Where these character requested': Richter, Isabelle, Incineroar, Ken and Piranha Plant. Richter is Japan's Simon and is a buffer for Japanese fans as well as a fun quirky easy addition for Western fans; Isabelle is very popular and made sense to add her along with a Animal Crossing for Switch announcement; Incineroar was both more popular than people give the character credit for in both Western and Eastern audiences, but was also the best pick for a new fighter as he offered something never truly done in Smash until now; everyone loves Ken and he was a no-brainer inclusion that no one was against at all; PP was Sakurai doing as Sakurai does, and 90% of the time we all come to love and accept when he does that.
The rest though? They were requested, and thus the mantra carries on with Joker, it's a sign that the mantra is referring to the characters you love that you thought wouldn't get in but always hoped would, and there is still a void that hasn't been filled and damage that has been done with Waluigi, Isaac and Shadow as well as worry and doubt with Geno and Rayman. There are still characters out there that have been campaigned for for over a decade and that needs to be addressed.
Sure, I'll agree that Sakurai needs to have creative freedom and when he does we usually get something phenomenal, but there needs to be a balance and with YEARS of backlog on characters that have been campaigned for that needs to take a bit more priority under this very encouraging mantra. It should be at most 3 fan requests and 2 that fall under other catagories, bit it Sakurai craziness or 'Hey, I didn't ask for them, but this is cool' or the dreadful 'shill pick'.