Geno, yes. Pokemon, no, because TPC is really, really particular about DLC and, beyond that, if there was plans for Pokemon DLC, why didn't they save the Rocket Grunt or the main Sword and Shield spirits for it? No, it's not like ARMS because the ARMS stuff was in the base game; these weren't.
But a ton of the same insiders that support Geno also support a Pokemon rep happening, don't they? Notably Jon from ex-GameXPlain, and Imran Khan (though he was more indirect, but has stated multiple times that we are likely getting "Switch evergreens" in Smash, which Pokemon is definitely qualified for).
Notably, next year is also Pokemon's 25th anniversary and judging from leaked material, TPC definitely do intend to celebrate it on
some level; and chances are that Nintendo does too (I would argue that Mario/Zelda/Pokemon are the big 3 of Nintendo, and 2 of them will have anniversaries next year).
Even with the Team Rocket Mii Costume/Sword and Shield spirits, there's still plenty of room for additional Pokemon themed DLC relating to a fighter; and Pokemon has always been treated specially in Smash anyways. On top of all that, people would have found it even more suspicious if Pokemon didn't get any spirits for over a year since Sw/Sh released than they did with Three Houses. And once Byleth got announced, Pokemon would automatically be considered a lock with such a large absence. With such a major milestone coming up, I would say a Gen 8 rep is really likely to get announced for next year (and this is from someone who really does not care at all about pokemon anymore). Doubly so if a Mario rep is announced for the 35th anniversary.
If we say that the Pokemon Company is hard to work with as a potential con, I don't see why everyone is expecting Crash/Activision to make it considering that there's a ton of info that Activision isn't exactly easy to work with either. And unlike Activision, at least TPC are already represented in Smash.
I just don't see how all the teasing for Geno by insiders can be seen as massive evidence, while the same insiders doing the same thing for Pokemon is dismissed so easily.