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Geno (♥♪!?): Return of the Starsend Savior

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CopperKoopa

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jan 21, 2014
Messages
266
Thank you! I'll wear it with pride!



Well it's actually less of a theory for Geno and more of an overall theory regarding the Fighter Pass choices.

You see I'm a bit of a hyper analyst, so I'm always trying to analyze the logic and reasoning behind certain decisions be they personal or business related (It's not hard to imagine that I have a bit of a love/hate relationship with Nintendo in this aspect). I don't need to tell you all how Nintendo kind of work within a bubble, however that doesn't seem to be the case when it comes to the Fighter Pass choices. I always find myself coming back to Nintendo being the ones choosing the characters, of course we know at that Sakurai does have more control over whether they can work or not and which character from a specific game (like with Min Min).

It was a little after Min Min came out and I decided to take a step back and look at everything we've gotten so far that a thought occurred to me: Nintendo ACTIVELY chose these characters. Nintendo CHOSE Joker. Nintendo CHOSE Hero. Nintendo CHOSE Banjo. Nintendo CHOSE Terry. These are characters that when we look at the grand scheme of things, probably wouldn't entice casual Smash players or complete newcomers to the series as much as others. If they were trying to sell the Fighter Pass to as many people as possible, why go with some of these options? As happy as I was to get Banjo, he's sadly a largely irrelevant character nowadays that would really only appeal to the smash veterans who have wanted him since Melee. Why go through the effort for what might be very little return?

Then I had a theory, about the true purpose of the Fighter Pass and the logic Nintendo is using for character choices: demographics. They're not simply trying to entice players who already have the game to get the Fighter Pass, they're trying to use the Fighter Pass to appeal to specific or niche audiences to get the whole package. When you think about it, Ultimate really didn't need to do much to sell itself. It had already become a money printer for Nintendo at this point and it alone was going to sell Switch units. All Ultimate had to do to sell itself to us was say "Everyone is Here" plus more. Nintendo absolutely knew this, just like they absolutely know the demand for characters like Banjo (and in that regard Geno) and the core package already has so much that can appeal to just about everybody, the Fighter Pass is essentially cleanup.

This is where we come to the Fighter Pass characters and the demographics they appeal to:

Joker- Appeals to a very particular yet very dedicated JRPG fandom that while not as big as others, are VERY vocal about their love for a relatively niche series (not meant as any kind of disrespect, I myself have been a Persona fan since 3).

Hero- Appeals to a more old school, JRPG demographic mostly in Japan plus promotion for the Switch port of DQ11.

Banjo- Appeals to the longstanding Smash players that have actively wanted him since Melee and have been around for the era of the N64.

Terry- Appeals to the more dedicated arcade fighting game community as well as South American/Latino groups.

Byleth- Appeals to the same dedicated Fire Emblem fans who were upset at Chrom not getting into WiiU/3DS as well as cross promotion with that game.

Min Min-... uh... Arms stans? In all seriousness I think it's to appeal to the casual gamers that invested in the Switch early on and possibly to have a character represent their newest console generation.

It's with this theory in mind that it seems possible that the rest of the FP characters will appeal to other demographics that aren't as catered to in the base game. In fact if this crackpot theory of mine holds true, then it actually lines up a lot with Fatmanonice Fatmanonice predictions from a little while back, and this of course includes Geno: to appeal to one of the last long running character demands like Banjo was.

Other possible examples:

Crash- Appeals to old-school Playstation fans who were likely around during those console wars.

Master Chief/Doom Slayer- Appeals to FPS fans.

Man that was a lot, sorry if it's long-winded and rambly but I wanted to get it all out there. It's probably like how a described it, a crackpot theory, but I thought it was an interesting way to view what characters we could possibly see in the future.

I think you are right on the money. And any of the choices for FP2 are going to follow a similar logic 100%

Min Min appeals to early Switch adopters and pushes a new IP (as you suggested)

Then for who we SUSPECT...

Geno grabs the diehard longtime fans, like Banjo, but even more so since Geno is far more niche. Also ties into Mario 35th and the Mario fan community

Crash grabs people who grew up with PS and need that "fix" since Sonic and Mario don't speak to them and they maybe don't normally play Nintendo. Also hits the old console wars appeal Sonic hit in Brawl. Plus he wasn't in PS All Stars, so yet another "suck it, Sony" move on Nintendo's part 😎

Dante or Hayabusa or a similar character would snag that same audience that supported Bayonetta, which is people who like their hardcore games and also may not typically play Smash. You get the benefit of the M rating appeal as well, with the headlinenl of "can you believe this mature character is fighting Pikachu?!" practically writing itself

Master Chief and Doom play into the above as well, but they also add FPS and PC/XBOX demos to the fold. Many, many people who may not have been interested before will definitely have their interest piqued

Waluigi of course gets the meme status, which is a little different from everyone else

I think that's all the characters we're expecting?

The image is from SMRPG game itself. Though what the box contains, I'll leave it up to you on finding out.
I knew it was from SMRPG I did play it on release after all 🙄😛
 
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Staarih

Smash Master
Joined
Dec 19, 2013
Messages
3,138
Location
Finland
While I’m personally not that into the leaking/insider scene as I’ve kinda grown tired of the anticipation and all the ”maybe’s” and ”what if’s” and I’ll just wait it out and get what I get, I’ll still pop in and share this cool Geno art I stumbled across:

http://instagr.am/p/CD4kptRJAzW/
Not sure if posted here before.
The artist has done cool art for every Smash character too.
 
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TX-55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 10, 2019
Messages
284
I am...protective of him.
That's good and all, but you have to remember that we're on the same team.
I've wanted Waluigi in Smash for more than 15 years, but I'm also a realist, I say it like it is.

The same applies to Geno and Waluigi, they're both wanted for Smash, their circumstances may be different, but the end goal is the same.

We have to stick together, they're both are part of the biggest video game franchise.
 

Jurae818

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 27, 2014
Messages
294
I just realized something.

Peach was first seen with a parasol in Super Mario RPG. I'm not crazy for thinking that Sakurai pulled from this game for Peach's moveset for her moveset. I may be a slowpoke on this one, but this shows you how that game influenced other Mario games, even Super Princess Peach. While it's nothing new for the elegant lady archtype to have a parasol, it says enough that SMRPG was the first title to give her one and then from there on, you'd see her with a parasol every now and again.

Nintendo may not want Mario to have an RPG series, but they can't deny or ignore how influential SMRPG was to the series, not just for the games but even the characters.
 

Andwooooo

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 7, 2018
Messages
258
I just realized something.

Peach was first seen with a parasol in Super Mario RPG. I'm not crazy for thinking that Sakurai pulled from this game for Peach's moveset for her moveset. I may be a slowpoke on this one, but this shows you how that game influenced other Mario games, even Super Princess Peach. While it's nothing new for the elegant lady archtype to have a parasol, it says enough that SMRPG was the first title to give her one and then from there on, you'd see her with a parasol every now and again.

Nintendo may not want Mario to have an RPG series, but they can't deny or ignore how influential SMRPG was to the series, not just for the games but even the characters.
And the frying pan!
 

AdamBel731

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 27, 2019
Messages
756
Just gonna slide on in here with my obligatory first post on the site. Nice to meet you all, I've been shadowing off and on for some time now and only now decided to join the discussions. This is mostly because I had a crackpot theory recently that I wanted to get some input on.

I'll come out in saying that I don't have any personal history with Geno, however I do support the idea of him getting in (and I'm almost certain he will at this point). I like his design and I think he could have a pretty fun moveset, plus at this point I think he sort of deserves to get in at this point with the support for him for all these years. Honestly besides a single unlikely, completely personal pick, there really aren't any other characters I personally want; everything else is just icing on the cake for me so I'd want other people's dream picks to get in.
Welcome! Always great to see new faces here! ...and wait a moment, your reason for being here is exactly like mine! I've been here since last summer and I have made it known that I'm not a personal fan of Geno, but I think he is extremely likely for a variety of reasons. I also have echoed your sentiment of believing his fans deserve it after their dedication after all of these years. Trust me, I've been through this thread after a number of ups and downs and they've definitely been through a lot...

Also, wow, you and I agree on being content with the roster (personal wishes wise). I concur, anyone else is basically just icing on the cake for me because I've already gotten characters in the past who I would campaign for now. Plus, with a roster close to 90 combatants, it is hard for me to complain too much. I wonder who your smaller pick is though...

Thank you!
For me it's Travis Touchdown. I absolutely adore NMH and all the way back in Brawl, I always thought Travis was perfect for Smash. He's the only character I personally wanted for over a decade now. I accepted long ago that he's more of a pipe dream pick and I wouldn't be upset if he didn't make it in, of course his chances are better now more than ever but I'm not necessarily holding my breath.
...
Quincycoatl Quincycoatl my boy, I think you and I are gonna get along just fine. (Seriously what the heck, you not only echo my opinions on bieng in this thread, but you also want Travis Touchdown?!) Again, welcome to the thread, similar man of culture.
 
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Vector Victor

Smash Lord
Joined
May 27, 2019
Messages
1,961
I just realized something.

Peach was first seen with a parasol in Super Mario RPG. I'm not crazy for thinking that Sakurai pulled from this game for Peach's moveset for her moveset. I may be a slowpoke on this one, but this shows you how that game influenced other Mario games, even Super Princess Peach. While it's nothing new for the elegant lady archtype to have a parasol, it says enough that SMRPG was the first title to give her one and then from there on, you'd see her with a parasol every now and again.

Nintendo may not want Mario to have an RPG series, but they can't deny or ignore how influential SMRPG was to the series, not just for the games but even the characters.
Which is a shame that Psych Bomb or Peach Beam aren't her final smash. Instead its one of the worst final smashes, three games in a row.
 
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Quincycoatl

Smash Rookie
Joined
Aug 14, 2020
Messages
9
I don't really think the theory holds up fully though, even if it does make sense logically. If the intent of the DLC is to appeal to other demographics that weren't already appealed too, then a lot of the choices in FP 1 have a ton of faults regarding them.

Terry - He appeals to fighting game fan? The group that Ken appealed too in the base game? Terry was a good choice but really he appealed to SNK fans more specifically, and if we get into fans of __ company or __ series that isn't in Smash yet; the door has been opened for hundreds of series.

Byleth - See above, Chrom already got into Smash due to fan demand; I don't really see why Byleth had to get in to appeal to those fans. I mean is anyone arguing that Byleth appeals to a "ignored" community in Smash, especially when FE is one of the best represented series in Smash.

Joker - If the argument for why Joker got in boils down to just Persona has a dedicated fanbase, then really that opens up the gate to many series as well. It's not like the fan demand for Joker was particular insane either, he was mostly a left wing addition. I mean there are a ton of other series out there with dedicated fans, many of them being JRPGs; are they suddenly going to appeal to a new demographic just because the series has a ton of dedicated fans?

Hero - I'll give this to you. Turn based JRPG's didn't really get anything in the base game and I don't really count Pokemon as a JRPG. Same with Min-Min due to being the first series coming from the Switch.

Banjo - He appeals to a lot of older Smash players. But still we ended up getting K. Rool and Ridley to do just that, Banjo just does it even more; but he doesn't really introduce/develop a whole new/underdeveloped demographic anymore. Because people who wanted those older melee requests were treated very well just in the base game. Same with Geno.


To me it's just far more likely that Joker/Hero/Terry all got in because of legacy/popularity. While Byleth was mainly there for cross promotion and Banjo answered longstanding fan demand. Because I can't really say that the DLC so far has appealed to new/ignored demographics, when it really hasn't.

There's nothing stopping them from making the rest of this pass 4 JRPG series and 1 other series. Using your arguments we could just say that these series all have a dedicated fanbase so that they appeal to a "different" audience, and while that would be technically true; they can definitely branch out further to diversify the audience even more (but there is no evidence that they will, and looking at past precedence really tells us nothing about whether they're trying to appeal to "new/different" audiences).

TL;DR: Nintendo gonna add whoever they want and they're not really trying to appeal to ignored/different audiences too, too much. Unless you think adding any new/ignored series is appealing to different audiences.
I agree it's really not that strong of a theory, I forgot to include this in my post but a lot of it is mostly conjecture. It's likely a case of me reading too deeply into it but I figured it was an interesting way to look at it and I would put it out there to see what people thought.

Welcome! Always great to see new faces here! ...and wait a moment, your reason for being here is exactly like mine! I've been here since last summer and I have made it known that I'm not a personal fan of Geno, but I think he is extremely likely for a variety of reasons. I also have echoed your sentiment of believing his fans deserve it after their dedication after all of these years. Trust me, I've been through this thread after a number of ups and downs and they've definitely been through a lot...

Also, wow, you and I agree on being content with the roster (personal wishes wise). I concur, anyone else is basically just icing on the cake for me because I've already gotten characters in the past who I would campaign for now. Plus, with a roster close to 90 combatants, it is hard for me to complain too much. I wonder who your smaller pick is though...


...
Quincycoatl Quincycoatl my boy, I think you and I are gonna get along just fine. (Seriously what the heck, you not only echo my opinions on bieng in this thread, but you also want Travis Touchdown?!) Again, welcome to the thread, similar man of culture.
Oh wow! Small world I guess lol. I'm happy to meet someone that shares the same sentiment!
 

Enigma735

Smash Lord
Joined
Apr 5, 2020
Messages
1,322
Location
Mt. Cuminshidmore
Switch FC
SW-0889-8796-1569
Well it's actually less of a theory for Geno and more of an overall theory regarding the Fighter Pass choices.

You see I'm a bit of a hyper analyst, so I'm always trying to analyze the logic and reasoning behind certain decisions be they personal or business related (It's not hard to imagine that I have a bit of a love/hate relationship with Nintendo in this aspect). I don't need to tell you all how Nintendo kind of work within a bubble, however that doesn't seem to be the case when it comes to the Fighter Pass choices. I always find myself coming back to Nintendo being the ones choosing the characters, of course we know at that Sakurai does have more control over whether they can work or not and which character from a specific game (like with Min Min).

It was a little after Min Min came out and I decided to take a step back and look at everything we've gotten so far that a thought occurred to me: Nintendo ACTIVELY chose these characters. Nintendo CHOSE Joker. Nintendo CHOSE Hero. Nintendo CHOSE Banjo. Nintendo CHOSE Terry. These are characters that when we look at the grand scheme of things, probably wouldn't entice casual Smash players or complete newcomers to the series as much as others. If they were trying to sell the Fighter Pass to as many people as possible, why go with some of these options? As happy as I was to get Banjo, he's sadly a largely irrelevant character nowadays that would really only appeal to the smash veterans who have wanted him since Melee. Why go through the effort for what might be very little return?

Then I had a theory, about the true purpose of the Fighter Pass and the logic Nintendo is using for character choices: demographics. They're not simply trying to entice players who already have the game to get the Fighter Pass, they're trying to use the Fighter Pass to appeal to specific or niche audiences to get the whole package. When you think about it, Ultimate really didn't need to do much to sell itself. It had already become a money printer for Nintendo at this point and it alone was going to sell Switch units. All Ultimate had to do to sell itself to us was say "Everyone is Here" plus more. Nintendo absolutely knew this, just like they absolutely know the demand for characters like Banjo (and in that regard Geno) and the core package already has so much that can appeal to just about everybody, the Fighter Pass is essentially cleanup.

This is where we come to the Fighter Pass characters and the demographics they appeal to:

Joker- Appeals to a very particular yet very dedicated JRPG fandom that while not as big as others, are VERY vocal about their love for a relatively niche series (not meant as any kind of disrespect, I myself have been a Persona fan since 3).

Hero- Appeals to a more old school, JRPG demographic mostly in Japan plus promotion for the Switch port of DQ11.

Banjo- Appeals to the longstanding Smash players that have actively wanted him since Melee and have been around for the era of the N64.

Terry- Appeals to the more dedicated arcade fighting game community as well as South American/Latino groups.

Byleth- Appeals to the same dedicated Fire Emblem fans who were upset at Chrom not getting into WiiU/3DS as well as cross promotion with that game.

Min Min-... uh... Arms stans? In all seriousness I think it's to appeal to the casual gamers that invested in the Switch early on and possibly to have a character represent their newest console generation.

It's with this theory in mind that it seems possible that the rest of the FP characters will appeal to other demographics that aren't as catered to in the base game. In fact if this crackpot theory of mine holds true, then it actually lines up a lot with Fatmanonice Fatmanonice predictions from a little while back, and this of course includes Geno: to appeal to one of the last long running character demands like Banjo was.

Other possible examples:

Crash- Appeals to old-school Playstation fans who were likely around during those console wars.

Master Chief/Doom Slayer- Appeals to FPS fans.

Man that was a lot, sorry if it's long-winded and rambly but I wanted to get it all out there. It's probably like how a described it, a crackpot theory, but I thought it was an interesting way to view what characters we could possibly see in the future.

I love this theory and I have actually been thinking about this same exact thing for quite some time now.

People these days often forget why certain characters get included. When Sakurai announced that Nintendo would choose the DLC characters in Fighters Pass 1, a lot of predictions pre-Joker had tons of promotional Nintendo characters and little to no third parties. And then Fighters Pass 1 goes by and Nintendo blows us all away with these crazy third-party characters + the salt with Byleth. To me, I feel like new characters getting included in Smash to promote something is not the only factor when choosing characters, but to also include characters that represent a certain part of history for people that are "out of the loop" about these characters and franchises can learn about them, hence why we have these Sakurai Presentations. Besides, what does Banjo or Terry really promote for Nintendo other then to represent a certain part of history?

While yes, Geno has only appeared in one Mario spin-off from over 20 years ago, Geno can represent the passion and effort that Smash fans have went through to get their beloved puppet in Smash, and can also represent the Mario RPG's and Nintendo and Square's relationship, and that I feel is enough to warrant a spot on the roster.
 

MisterMike

Smash Champion
Joined
Jul 22, 2019
Messages
2,252
Launched the software via the executable? What do you mean? I might be missing something, but I'm pretty sure there's only one way to launch the software.
There's two ways to launch an application on Steam: there's launching it from your Steam library, and then there's launching it directly with the executable. Launching it from your Steam library is exactly how it sounds, you go into your Steam library and hit the green play button to launch the game. Launching the executable requires you go to Program Files x86 ==> steam ==> steamapps ==> common, and from there you'll find the BFBBR folder with the executable inside. All you gotta do from that point is double click to launch it.
 

Dekunk

Smash Cadet
Joined
Nov 7, 2017
Messages
39
Switch FC
SW-5452-6360-1438
Alright. I have risen from my slumber and have come to finish the deed I had pledged myself to do.
I will leak the entire Fighters Pass right now.
Do not look at the rest of this post if you wish to remain blissfully ignorant of the contents of Pass 2.

Final warning.






 

super88cloud

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 26, 2019
Messages
400
Switch FC
Sw-1747-1648-3976
.... ok.
And now for something completely different. I think tgere's still a chance geno is he last fighter
 

Paraspikey

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 1, 2020
Messages
441
Alright. I have risen from my slumber and have come to finish the deed I had pledged myself to do.
I will leak the entire Fighters Pass right now.
Do not look at the rest of this post if you wish to remain blissfully ignorant of the contents of Pass 2.

Final warning.






I can't believe Goku from Dragon Ball Z will be joining the battle in Super Smash Brothers Ultimate.
 

StarLight42

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 17, 2014
Messages
1,683
.... ok.
And now for something completely different. I think tgere's still a chance geno is he last fighter
i will never understand why people put Geno as the last fighter.

64 ended on Jigglypuff
Melee ended on Game and Watch
Brawl ended on wolf
Smash 4 ended on Bayonetta
Ultimate base ended on Incineroar
Ultimate FP1 ended on Byleth

Lmao. Come on guys. Stop being doomers. Geno will arrive and it will be in the middle of the pass. They aren’t ever ending on a fan favorite. It’s bad business.
 

MattX20

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 8, 2013
Messages
6,325
i will never understand why people put Geno as the last fighter.

64 ended on Jigglypuff
Melee ended on Game and Watch
Brawl ended on wolf
Smash 4 ended on Bayonetta
Ultimate base ended on Incineroar
Ultimate FP1 ended on Byleth

Lmao. Come on guys. Stop being doomers. Geno will arrive and it will be in the middle of the pass. They aren’t ever ending on a fan favorite. It’s bad business.
That, and it's also bad business to leave fans desperate for any news towards the end of the year for the next fighter. They've got to reveal FP7 before this month is up at bare minimum
 

Icewolff92

Smash Champion
Joined
Nov 27, 2018
Messages
2,620
i will never understand why people put Geno as the last fighter.

64 ended on Jigglypuff
Melee ended on Game and Watch
Brawl ended on wolf
Smash 4 ended on Bayonetta
Ultimate base ended on Incineroar
Ultimate FP1 ended on Byleth

Lmao. Come on guys. Stop being doomers. Geno will arrive and it will be in the middle of the pass. They aren’t ever ending on a fan favorite. It’s bad business.
People (myself included) is only trying to point out that Geno ain´t deconfirmed until the DLC is over and he was not part of the pack. He could be next, he could be 8 or 9. We have to remember that there are more fan favorites then our doll (such as Crash, Sora, or Dante for example). While I do believe he is in (not as sure as the rest of the folks though) I still don´t understand the logic of "he has to be next, because 7th which goes aline with the title". He could be the Terry of this pack as far as we know.
 
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Vector Victor

Smash Lord
Joined
May 27, 2019
Messages
1,961
i will never understand why people put Geno as the last fighter.

64 ended on Jigglypuff
Melee ended on Game and Watch
Brawl ended on wolf
Smash 4 ended on Bayonetta
Ultimate base ended on Incineroar
Ultimate FP1 ended on Byleth

Lmao. Come on guys. Stop being doomers. Geno will arrive and it will be in the middle of the pass. They aren’t ever ending on a fan favorite. It’s bad business.
Plus, the final character already has people ready to raise up pitchforks and torches against it, being that its the final character thus the final chance and Nintendo's habit of ending their Smash roster sets on a lackluster, dehyping and/or bad note to the point of parody.

Unless character 11 is a massive name in gaming and desired by fans, the final character will be despised and ripped apart by the Smash fanbase. So, nope, keep Geno out of that fate. Bring him out as number 7 or 8.

In fact, by character 9, speculation in the Smash fandom will be out for blood as the potential openings for their favorite dwindle. 10 has the out with 'well, at least we have number 11.' 11, however,, is practically doomed.
 
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Let Geno Smash

Smash Ace
Joined
Mar 30, 2020
Messages
633
Location
Cartago, Costa Rica
i will never understand why people put Geno as the last fighter.

64 ended on Jigglypuff
Melee ended on Game and Watch
Brawl ended on wolf
Smash 4 ended on Bayonetta
Ultimate base ended on Incineroar
Ultimate FP1 ended on Byleth

Lmao. Come on guys. Stop being doomers. Geno will arrive and it will be in the middle of the pass. They aren’t ever ending on a fan favorite. It’s bad business.
Totally, the 1st pass started with a Big 3rd Party, A Legacy IP and A Fan Favorite. In that way the people would buy the pass earliest as possible
 

7NATOR

Smash Master
Joined
Feb 13, 2016
Messages
4,089
i will never understand why people put Geno as the last fighter.

64 ended on Jigglypuff
Melee ended on Game and Watch
Brawl ended on wolf
Smash 4 ended on Bayonetta
Ultimate base ended on Incineroar
Ultimate FP1 ended on Byleth

Lmao. Come on guys. Stop being doomers. Geno will arrive and it will be in the middle of the pass. They aren’t ever ending on a fan favorite. It’s bad business.
If the Pass is like Fatmanonice's list and was filled with characters like Master Chief, Dante, Lloyd, and Crash, I would honestly expect Geno to be last at that rate. It's part of why I Don't particularly buy that list, (and I don't think some of you guys don't buy it either). I mean, if the rest of the FP2 was filled with exactly Hype new 3rd parties, and then Geno is in there, I would expect Geno to be last

Plus To be honest, if Bayonetta is an indication, The Last character doesn't have to be unhype or anything. I wouldn't expect them to be the most hype character in that particular cycle (And Bayo wasn't, when Compared to Cloud, Ryu, and probably Mewtwo as well), but they could still be people that people have been requesting, and while Bayonetta probably wasn't chosen from the ballot due to the datamine, she did see herself Hype and Excitement, and she did have requests. That's all I say
 

SpectreJordan

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 26, 2014
Messages
1,726
Location
Jacksonville, Fl
NNID
SpectreJordan
Thank you! I'll wear it with pride!



Well it's actually less of a theory for Geno and more of an overall theory regarding the Fighter Pass choices.

You see I'm a bit of a hyper analyst, so I'm always trying to analyze the logic and reasoning behind certain decisions be they personal or business related (It's not hard to imagine that I have a bit of a love/hate relationship with Nintendo in this aspect). I don't need to tell you all how Nintendo kind of work within a bubble, however that doesn't seem to be the case when it comes to the Fighter Pass choices. I always find myself coming back to Nintendo being the ones choosing the characters, of course we know at that Sakurai does have more control over whether they can work or not and which character from a specific game (like with Min Min).

It was a little after Min Min came out and I decided to take a step back and look at everything we've gotten so far that a thought occurred to me: Nintendo ACTIVELY chose these characters. Nintendo CHOSE Joker. Nintendo CHOSE Hero. Nintendo CHOSE Banjo. Nintendo CHOSE Terry. These are characters that when we look at the grand scheme of things, probably wouldn't entice casual Smash players or complete newcomers to the series as much as others. If they were trying to sell the Fighter Pass to as many people as possible, why go with some of these options? As happy as I was to get Banjo, he's sadly a largely irrelevant character nowadays that would really only appeal to the smash veterans who have wanted him since Melee. Why go through the effort for what might be very little return?

Then I had a theory, about the true purpose of the Fighter Pass and the logic Nintendo is using for character choices: demographics. They're not simply trying to entice players who already have the game to get the Fighter Pass, they're trying to use the Fighter Pass to appeal to specific or niche audiences to get the whole package. When you think about it, Ultimate really didn't need to do much to sell itself. It had already become a money printer for Nintendo at this point and it alone was going to sell Switch units. All Ultimate had to do to sell itself to us was say "Everyone is Here" plus more. Nintendo absolutely knew this, just like they absolutely know the demand for characters like Banjo (and in that regard Geno) and the core package already has so much that can appeal to just about everybody, the Fighter Pass is essentially cleanup.

This is where we come to the Fighter Pass characters and the demographics they appeal to:

Joker- Appeals to a very particular yet very dedicated JRPG fandom that while not as big as others, are VERY vocal about their love for a relatively niche series (not meant as any kind of disrespect, I myself have been a Persona fan since 3).

Hero- Appeals to a more old school, JRPG demographic mostly in Japan plus promotion for the Switch port of DQ11.

Banjo- Appeals to the longstanding Smash players that have actively wanted him since Melee and have been around for the era of the N64.

Terry- Appeals to the more dedicated arcade fighting game community as well as South American/Latino groups.

Byleth- Appeals to the same dedicated Fire Emblem fans who were upset at Chrom not getting into WiiU/3DS as well as cross promotion with that game.

Min Min-... uh... Arms stans? In all seriousness I think it's to appeal to the casual gamers that invested in the Switch early on and possibly to have a character represent their newest console generation.

It's with this theory in mind that it seems possible that the rest of the FP characters will appeal to other demographics that aren't as catered to in the base game. In fact if this crackpot theory of mine holds true, then it actually lines up a lot with Fatmanonice Fatmanonice predictions from a little while back, and this of course includes Geno: to appeal to one of the last long running character demands like Banjo was.

Other possible examples:

Crash- Appeals to old-school Playstation fans who were likely around during those console wars.

Master Chief/Doom Slayer- Appeals to FPS fans.

Man that was a lot, sorry if it's long-winded and rambly but I wanted to get it all out there. It's probably like how a described it, a crackpot theory, but I thought it was an interesting way to view what characters we could possibly see in the future.

You could also look at this way:

Piranha Plant - 1st party character that missed the base roster because of time constraints

Joker - A character with little to no Nintendo presence that shocks everyone

Hero - A legacy character that basically kickstarted a genre

Banjo - A classic western character from the late ‘90s

Terry - A less known character that confuses a lot of people but excites a passionate fanbase

Byleth - A “shill pick” from a recent, beloved Nintendo game

Which could translate into:

Min-Min
Master Chief
Dante
Crash
Geno
Rex & Pyra

Buuuuut this is all assuming that Nintendo wants to take a similar route with this pass that they did for the first one.
 

StarLight42

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If the Pass is like Fatmanonice's list and was filled with characters like Master Chief, Dante, Lloyd, and Crash, I would honestly expect Geno to be last at that rate. It's part of why I Don't particularly buy that list, (and I don't think some of you guys don't buy it either). I mean, if the rest of the FP2 was filled with exactly Hype new 3rd parties, and then Geno is in there, I would expect Geno to be last
Except I do not think the pass will end up being exactly like Fatmanonice's list.

I do believe some of the characters he talks about a lot have a strong chance to show up at some point such as Chief or Crash. However, i'm not really sold on stuff like Dante. I swear every time the smash fanbase collectively cries that Dante will be next and he's been "leaked" or “hinted” by developers, then he doesn't show up. It’s literally Hayabusa or Doomguy all over again. Need I bring up the infamous Byleth fiasco? Here’s a take for you, I don’t think we’ll be getting ANY Capcom in Pass 2, and the surge of Capcom related mii costumes that have already been released long hinted at that being the case.

I think it's much more likely that instead of characters like him, we will get one or two underwhelming first parties, or completely out of left field 3rd parties ala Joker and such. Out of the five characters on Pass 1, only Banjo was highly speculated by the community (Hero was leaked). so I don't see why Pass 2 will be filled with these "legendary" characters especially when they kicked off on MIN MIN.

Again, it's almost like you don't have to see eye-to-eye with Fatman on everything on the Geno thread. It's open discussion, we can see things from our own point of view.

I still stand by my stance that Geno would absolutely never be the last character. Period.
 
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SpectreJordan

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Would Rex & Pyra truly be a shill pick though concidering their game is 3 years old and don´t have any DLC on the way as Byleth had?
It wouldn’t be as obvious as Byleth, but I think Nintendo would consider it a promotional pick. They’re definitely trying to make Xenoblade a bigger series & I think they’ll use Smash to boost that.
 

7NATOR

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Except I do not think the pass will end up being exactly like Fatmanonice's list.

I do believe some of the characters he talks about a lot have a strong chance to show up at some point such as Chief or Crash. However, i'm not really sold on stuff like Dante. I swear every time the smash fanbase collectively cries that Dante will be next and he's been "leaked" or “hinted” by developers, then he doesn't show up. It’s literally Hayabusa or Doomguy all over again. Need I bring up the infamous Byleth fiasco? I think it's much more likely that instead of characters like him, we will get one or two underwhelming first parties, or completely out of left field 3rd parties ala Joker and such. Out of the five characters on Pass 1, only Banjo was highly speculated by the community (Hero was leaked). so I don't see why Pass 2 will be filled with these "legendary" characters especially when they kicked off on MIN MIN.

Again, it's almost like you don't have to see eye-to-eye with Fatman on everything on the Geno thread. It's open discussion, we can see things from our own point of view.

I still stand by my stance that Geno would absolutely never be the last character. Period.
I Know you guys don't have to see eye to eye. That's why I mentioned that some of you guys don't buy it.

I Only bring up his list because I believe he said it himself, that he Predicts and Speculates with a little help from Insider information. If there's Insider Info pointing to the other 4 Characters besides Geno, It may not be what it seems, or such like that. of course it's his Speculation, so what do you do?

On Dante, I want to think he's likely because While I might not want him as much as Shadow and Goku, He's still a Character I would like to see in Smash because he's so sick, but personally I'm leaning into him being a mii costume unfortunatly, and I Know fatman said there was some more info that came out more recently that pointed to a Capcom character... I don't know about that and even if it did, I don't know it i'll be Dante

If there's anything I have to mention, I don't think Geno would be last if he's Playable. I don't know if he'll be FP7, But I'm don't think he'll be last, at least as of right now
 

Let Geno Smash

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You could also look at this way:

Piranha Plant - 1st party character that missed the base roster because of time constraints

Joker - A character with little to no Nintendo presence that shocks everyone

Hero - A legacy character that basically kickstarted a genre

Banjo - A classic western character from the late ‘90s

Terry - A less known character that confuses a lot of people but excites a passionate fanbase

Byleth - A “shill pick” from a recent, beloved Nintendo game

Which could translate into:

Min-Min
Master Chief
Dante
Crash
Geno
Rex & Pyra

Buuuuut this is all assuming that Nintendo wants to take a similar route with this pass that they did for the first one.
Ok if the Pass 2 is a copy paste of the 1st one IMO would be. PD: I do not consider Banjo just a Western Rep. I think he is the Big fan demand:
-Min Min for Pirahna Plant
-Either Sora or Master Chief for Joker
-Lloyd Irving for Hero
-Obviously Geno for Banjo
-IDK which one fits for Terry maybe Travis or Rayman
-Sadly the best fitting for Byleth is a Pokemon Rep
 

Icewolff92

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Ok if the Pass 2 is a copy paste of the 1st one IMO would be. PD: I do not consider Banjo just a Western Rep. I think he is the Big fan demand:
-Min Min for Pirahna Plant
-Either Sora or Master Chief for Joker
-Lloyd Irving for Hero
-Obviously Geno for Banjo
-IDK which one fits for Terry maybe Travis or Rayman
-Sadly the best fitting for Byleth is a Pokemon Rep

Hear me out. Geno is last because they are remaking SMRPG and it's releasing late next year?
 

SpectreJordan

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Except I do not think the pass will end up being exactly like Fatmanonice's list.

I do believe some of the characters he talks about a lot have a strong chance to show up at some point such as Chief or Crash. However, i'm not really sold on stuff like Dante. I swear every time the smash fanbase collectively cries that Dante will be next and he's been "leaked" or “hinted” by developers, then he doesn't show up. It’s literally Hayabusa or Doomguy all over again. Need I bring up the infamous Byleth fiasco? Here’s a take for you, I don’t think we’ll be getting ANY Capcom in Pass 2, and the surge of Capcom related mii costumes that have already been released long hinted at that being the case.

I think it's much more likely that instead of characters like him, we will get one or two underwhelming first parties, or completely out of left field 3rd parties ala Joker and such. Out of the five characters on Pass 1, only Banjo was highly speculated by the community (Hero was leaked). so I don't see why Pass 2 will be filled with these "legendary" characters especially when they kicked off on MIN MIN.

Again, it's almost like you don't have to see eye-to-eye with Fatman on everything on the Geno thread. It's open discussion, we can see things from our own point of view.

I still stand by my stance that Geno would absolutely never be the last character. Period.
People keep bringing up Min-Min being first as an indicator of the rest of the pass, but I have a theory about that.

They didn’t roll right into Fighter Pass 1 after the base game. They had to add the finishing touches & whatnot, then downsize the team. While the developers were doing this, the legal team was able to finish all the legal dealings for the third party characters which is why we got 4 of them before any first parties.

But they didn’t have to do a transitionary period between FP1 & FP2, I imagine it was a straight continuation. So they pushed up the development of Min-Min & possibly other first party characters while the deals for the third parties were finished.

So, essentially another Min Min
Sort of. We have to see what Nintendo does with Arms in the near future to see if Min-Min is in Smash to push that series.
 

Icewolff92

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Sort of. We have to see what Nintendo does with Arms in the near future to see if Min-Min is in Smash to push that series.
I mean, say that you have a free trial for the game for a period of time ready to go right after its announcement of Arms getting a rep just screams "we want to push it"
 

SpectreJordan

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I mean, say that you have a free trial for the game for a period of time ready to go right after its announcement of Arms getting a rep just screams "we want to push it"
I agree with that. We’ll just have to see if there’ll be a sequel anytime soon. I think Xenoblade Chronicles 3 will happen within the next 3 years.
 

Rie Sonomura

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I agree with that. We’ll just have to see if there’ll be a sequel anytime soon. I think Xenoblade Chronicles 3 will happen within the next 3 years.
what about a theoretical Xenoblade Chronicles X Definitive Edition? I feel it's all but guaranteed after TMS Encore and Pikmin 3 Deluxe

and with it, Elma as the Shill Pick
 

Fatmanonice

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People often bring up how my prediction list is stuffed full of fan favorites and, like I said last November, that's pretty much been how it's been with characters heard in insider circles since 2018:


A vast majority of the characters heard have basically fallen into two categories:

-fan favorites that have been requested since at least Brawl

-characters from new companies that would be wildly unexpected by the general public

As time has gone on, the first category has gotten notably stronger while the second has gotten notably weaker. This is a big reason why I don't seriously entertain characters like Sol and Ryu anymore and now think they could be Mii costumes at best. Pretty much since last September the overarching goal of Season 2 has seemed pretty apparent: go big and bold because Smash is probably going to have a notable hiatus once Season 2 is done.
 
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