That's a REALLY good theory (the only doubt I have is that both 2019 and 2020 would have a Square Rep and a Microsoft Rep as their E3 reveals).
Btw: your predictions still being the same only changing the orders, right? If that is the case we will get:
CP6: MinMin
CP7: Geno
CP8: Master Chief
CP9: Lloyd
CP10: Dante
CP11: Crash
Since these characters get brought up a ton in this thread by Fatman and others. I'll just post my honest thoughts on their chances, and I am a fan of all these characters too so I'm not really biased against them.
Geno: Super duper likely imo. I don't think he's guaranteed but I think it's his time guys and gals. And I think he's coming no later than CP 8 (CP7 is most likely though). If you're a regular, you already know all the stuff surrounding his chances; and while I myself don't buy a lot of it, his chances look good nonetheless.
Master Chief: Unlikely, I'd say. I know Microsoft and Nintendo worked wonderfully in FP 1, and their relationship is pretty good; but unlike someone like Banjo, Master Chief doesn't have the insanely vocal fan support. And on top of that he was never as big as Banjo was in Japan, he is decently niche over there. In terms of the
BIG 3 3rd party characters (Crash, Sora, Master Chief); I'd say Master Chief has the
lowest chance (not too far off from Sora) to be a character but the highest chance to get represented (either via spirits or mii costumes).
Lloyd: I think a
Tales character is all but guaranteed. It's the last of the
BIG JRPG's in Japan (aside from Kingdom Hearts) that doesn't have a presence in Smash on top of the rights to be fairly easy to get to. IF a Tales character is revealed this year, I'd say
Lloyd has the best shot of making it in, followed closely by
Yuri. However, if we end up going to the next year with NO Tales reveal; I think the front runner will switch to
Alphen. Sure, his game won't be on a Nintendo console but at this point that rule has already been pushed hard. It makes too much sense for Bamco to advertise Arise like that especially when Arise is the next "BIG" addition to Tales.
But regardless
Lloyd has a good shot, and his biggest competition are in his own series.
Dante: Likely, I'd say. He's grown as a big request, and DMC is more popular than ever. He has a good fanbase both in the West and in the East, so it seems like a pretty likely character. His only issue is that Capcom has so many "good" picks, and he's competing with the likes of Phoenix Wright and Monster Hunter both of which are more attached to Nintendo comparatively to DMC. Who knows though, Capcom was fine with spiriting away RE so it's hard to say if these series just get more spirits instead of a fighter.
Crash: 50/50 for me. I think out of the BIG 3 I've mentioned before, Crash has the highest chance to become playable. He doesn't have Sora's potential copyright issues, and unlike Master Chief, Crash does have a Japanese fanbase (as niche as it may be nowadays). He's probably the most likely "Western" character we're can potentially get.
Personally speaking; here is how I think the rest of the pass is going to go.
7: Geno (Smash x Mario RPG) (September 2020)
8: Rex and Pyra (Smash x Xenoblade Chronicles 2) (November/December 2020)
9: Alphen (Smash x Tales of Arise) (March 2021 or around the time Arise is planned to release)
10: Dante (Smash x DMC) (June 2021) (I don't think they'll use the word "Devil", just because they've already censored Fallout and Assassin)
11: A "niche/controversial" character (Arle/Ryu Hayabusa/Adol Christin/Reimu/etc) (September 2021)
I think I feel pretty confident in something along the lines of this happening.